A common weakness in existing approaches is that the intervention policy depends on predictions of case outcomes, which come with inherent uncertainty. Thus, a policy may trigger interventions based on misleading estimates. For example, the approaches in [1]}, [2]} trigger interventions when the probability of the undesired outcome (\(uout\) ) exceeds an empirically determined threshold, even when this probability is uncertain. This may lead to unnecessary interventions, which consume limited resources. In the abovementioned unemployment benefits process, the intervention involves escalating a case to a senior case handler. However, senior case handlers have a higher cost and limited capacity. Thus, escalating cases unnecessarily may lead to other cases not being escalated, even though the escalation would have been more effective for the latter.
