Fitted illness-death models can also generate clinically meaningful predictions of the individualized joint risk and timing of the non-terminal and terminal events [1]}. In the preeclampsia setting, the model can predict across time how likely an individual is to be in one of four categories: (i) still pregnant without preeclampsia, (ii) already delivered without preeclampsia, (iii) still pregnant with preeclampsia, and (iv) already delivered with preeclampsia. These four probabilities comprise an individualized “risk profile.” Four such risk profiles are shown in Figure REF , derived from the above AIC-selected Weibull model with fusion penalty, having covariates outlined in Table REF . At each time point, the height of each colored area of the plot gives the probability that the individual will be in the corresponding outcome category at that time. The combined height of the blue and purple bars at the right end of the plot gives the overall risk of developing preeclampsia.
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