Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large eruptions of magnetised plasma from the Sun's atmosphere. CMEs are the primary cause of severe and extreme space weather at Earth, and so understanding the heliospheric evolution of CMEs, and forecasting their arrival at Earth receives a significant amount of research effort. Currently, numerical simulations of the real-world heliospheric evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have significant uncertainty. This is partly evidenced by the large average errors in CME arrival time of \(\pm 10~h\)  [1]}. These uncertainties are caused by a range of factors, but appear to be dominated by uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the solar wind models, with uncertainty in the ambient solar wind structure and CME parameters introducing similar levels of uncertainty [2]}. These uncertainties therefore limit our ability to draw scientific conclusions from the simulations of real-world CMEs, and limit the skill of space weather forecasts of CMEs.
