We use Bayesian inference to infer a posterior distribution \(p(\textbf {s} \mid \textbf {o})\)  over states \(\textbf {s}\)  (five answer options), from a set of observations \(\textbf {o}\)  (messages sent between players in the recorded chat). Since there are five discrete states, we can compute posteriors directly without the need to approximate them. More complicated environments may require the use of approximate inference methods like free energy/active inference [1]}.
