This work analyzed the community-level trends in burglaries, assaults, narcotics-related offenses and robberies to understand whether and how COVID-19 containment policies have impacted differently across different areas of the same city, and what are the main contextual correlates associated to crime reductions. We framed our work in the context of Routine Activity Theory [1]}, Crime Pattern Theory [2]} and General Strain Theory [3]}, [4]}, but the community-level focus of the analyses are motivated by the literature on crime concentration which indicates that crime does not occur randomly in time and space [5]}, [6]}, [7]}, [8]}. It rather clusters in certain areas of a city. Concerning our crimes of interest, Routine Activity Theory and Crime Pattern Theory both point in the direction of diffused decrease in crime events due to the massive reduction in opportunities (a joint effect of increased capable guardianship and very low human mobility). On the other hand, General Strain Theory suggests that the presence of negative stimuli–such as the stress associated to isolation and financial and economic uncertainty–and the impossibility to reach positively valued goals due to the stay-at-home policies may lead to crime by increasing negative emotions responses, thus predicting potential spikes in certain types of offenses. As these propositions govern the overall dynamics concerning crime, we posited that such theories can explain the extent to which criminal activity varies across Chicago communities due to their different criminal, social, economic, health, and demographic contexts. Indeed, certain areas of the city experienced crime reduction, while others did not. These reductions are crime-sensitive and depend on the different contextual characteristics of the communities.
