The problem we
highlight ultimately stems from the difficulty of having only a single
realization with which to examine a complex problem. The only way
to deal with this problem embodied is through replication, as can
be done in an experimental system in laboratory manipulations such
as [1]}, [2]}, [3]} and at the scale of whole
lake ecosystems in [4]}. Experimental procedures avoid
the hazard of the Prosecutor's fallacy by generating a complete sample
of replicates, rather than selecting a subset of cases from some larger
historical sample.
