competitively priced launches, and easy availability of finance. Overall, the cars and UV segment is expected to
sustain growth at 5-7% CAGR during fiscal 2020 to 2024, post consecutive two years of double-digit decline.

CV industry
MHCYV segment to log moderate growth; tonnage growth to be marginally lower

CRISIL Research expects sales growth of MHCV, LCV and buses, the three major commercial vehicle segments
to grow by a combined 5-7% CAGR in the next five years, between fiscals 2020 and 2024. CRISIL Research has
categorized the CV industry into MHCVs, LCVs, and buses to better gauge and analyses the dynamics within
each of these key segments. The production for CVs is expected to grow at 2.5-3.5% CAGR over fiscal 2019 to
2023.

Projected growth in CVs production (‘000s in volume terms)

1,200

949

1,000 895
810

100

752

800 699
600

yAcK)

400

200

       

FY14 FY15 FY16 FYIToy MeV “ 19 FY20 FY24P.

Source: CRISIL Research
Tractor industry

Domestic demand to grow 4-6% till fiscal 2023

Domestic tractor sales are expected to grow 18-20% on-year in fiscal 2021 due to better crop production on
account of a normal monsoon. CRISIL Research projects domestic tractor sales to expand at 4-6% CAGR during
fiscal 2020 to 2024, on account of low tractor penetration in India (3 tractors per 100-hectare area); government's
focus on improving farm incomes through various schemes, promoting farm mechanization; and investments to
improve rural infrastructure. The projected growth rate factors in one-two years of deficient rainfall.

Projected growth in tractor production

 

1,000 30%
800 foie ee 20%
600 hae 10%
400 0%
200 13 119 10% -10%

: -20%

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY24P
mmm Production -Tractors (000s) = ==% growth y-o-y

Source: CRISIL Research

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