It is highly likely that Jason is tired. It is probably not the case that Brian is a frog. It is highly unlikely that Mary left the football. It is almost certain that if 'Mary left the football' or 'Brian is a frog' or both then Emily is a wolf. Chances are slight that if 'Mary left the football' or 'Brian is a frog' or both then Julius is a swan. It is improbable that if 'Mary left the football' or 'Jason is tired' or both then Bill went to the garden.
There is almost no chance that either 'Jason is tired' or 'Emily is a wolf' but not both.
It is likely that either 'Jason is tired' or 'Emily is a wolf' but not both.
There is almost no chance that either 'Jason is tired' or 'Emily is a wolf' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.9::factA.
  0.25::factB.
  0.05::factC.
  %hop1
  0.95::factX:-or(factC,factB).
  0.1::factY:-or(factC,factB).
  0.1::factZ:-or(factC,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factA,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Jason is tired' or 'Emily is a wolf' but not both.