We believe that Julius is a frog. There is a very good chance that Brian is white. It is unlikely that Daniel dropped the apple. Chances are slight that if 'Julius is a frog and Brian is white' then Antoine is hungry. It is improbable that if either 'Daniel dropped the apple' or 'Brian is white' but not both then Emily is a wolf. It is highly likely that if 'Brian is white' or 'Daniel dropped the apple' or both then Bernhard is yellow.
It is probable that either 'Daniel dropped the apple' or 'Emily is a wolf' but not both.
It is probably not the case that either 'Daniel dropped the apple' or 'Emily is a wolf' but not both.
It is probable that either 'Daniel dropped the apple' or 'Emily is a wolf' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.75::factA.
  0.8::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-and(factA,factB).
  0.1::factY:-xor(factC,factB).
  0.9::factZ:-or(factB,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factC,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Daniel dropped the apple' or 'Emily is a wolf' but not both.