There is almost no chance that Bill went to the bedroom. We doubt that Mary put down the apple. It is almost certain that Daniel grabbed the apple. It is probably the case that if either 'Daniel grabbed the apple' or 'Bill went to the bedroom' but not both then Lily is a frog. There is a better than even chance that if 'Mary put down the apple and Daniel grabbed the apple' then Jessica is a wolf. It is highly unlikely that if 'Bill went to the bedroom' or 'Daniel grabbed the apple' or both then Brian is yellow.
It is unlikely that either 'Brian is yellow' or 'Jessica is a wolf' but not both.
It is unlikely that either 'Brian is yellow' or 'Jessica is a wolf' but not both.
It is probable that either 'Brian is yellow' or 'Jessica is a wolf' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.02::factA.
  0.2::factB.
  0.95::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-xor(factC,factA).
  0.6::factY:-and(factB,factC).
  0.05::factZ:-or(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factZ,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Brian is yellow' or 'Jessica is a wolf' but not both.