Chances are slight that Emily is a wolf. It is impossible that Winona is a mouse. It is unlikely that Lily is a frog. Chances are about even that if either 'Winona is a mouse' or 'Lily is a frog' but not both then Bernhard is gray. It is probably not the case that if 'Lily is a frog' or 'Winona is a mouse' or both then Daniel got the football. It is probably not the case that if 'Winona is a mouse' or 'Lily is a frog' or both then John picked up the milk.
It is probably not the case that either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Lily is a frog' but not both.
It is probably not the case that either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Lily is a frog' but not both.
It is probably the case that either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Lily is a frog' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  0.0::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.5::factX:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.25::factY:-or(factC,factB).
  0.25::factZ:-or(factB,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factA,factC).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Lily is a frog' but not both.