It is unlikely that Lily is a lion. We believe that Julius is a frog. It is highly likely that Sandra took the football. It is probable that if either 'Julius is a frog' or 'Lily is a lion' but not both then Bill moved to the office. It is probably not the case that if either 'Sandra took the football' or 'Julius is a frog' but not both then Jeff went to the garden. It is improbable that if 'Julius is a frog' or 'Lily is a lion' or both then Bernhard is gray.
It is highly likely that 'Sandra took the football' or 'Jeff went to the garden' or both.
It is highly likely that 'Sandra took the football' or 'Jeff went to the garden' or both.
There is little chance that 'Sandra took the football' or 'Jeff went to the garden' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.2::factA.
  0.75::factB.
  0.9::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-xor(factB,factA).
  0.25::factY:-xor(factC,factB).
  0.1::factZ:-or(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factC,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Sandra took the football' or 'Jeff went to the garden' or both.