It is almost certain that Brian is a swan. It is unlikely that Winona is a wolf. We believe that Bernhard is a lion. It is highly unlikely that if either 'Winona is a wolf' or 'Bernhard is a lion' but not both then Lily is white. It is probable that if either 'Winona is a wolf' or 'Bernhard is a lion' but not both then John discarded the apple. It is highly unlikely that if 'Winona is a wolf and Bernhard is a lion' then Greg is gray.
Chances are about even that 'John discarded the apple and Bernhard is a lion'.
Chances are about even that 'John discarded the apple and Bernhard is a lion'.
It is almost certain that 'John discarded the apple and Bernhard is a lion'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.95::factA.
  0.2::factB.
  0.75::factC.
  %hop1
  0.05::factX:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.7::factY:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.05::factZ:-and(factB,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factY,factC).

  query(conclusion).
  
'John discarded the apple and Bernhard is a lion'.