It is improbable that Lily is a frog. It is highly unlikely that Bernhard is a lion. It is improbable that John took the apple. We doubt that if either 'Bernhard is a lion' or 'Lily is a frog' but not both then Emily is a mouse. It is probable that if either 'Bernhard is a lion' or 'Lily is a frog' but not both then Julius is white. Chances are about even that if 'Bernhard is a lion and Lily is a frog' then Mary discarded the milk.
It is almost certain that 'John took the apple' or 'Julius is white' or both.
It is unlikely that 'John took the apple' or 'Julius is white' or both.
It is almost certain that 'John took the apple' or 'Julius is white' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  0.05::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-xor(factB,factA).
  0.7::factY:-xor(factB,factA).
  0.5::factZ:-and(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factC,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
'John took the apple' or 'Julius is white' or both.