It is unlikely that Bernhard is white. There is little chance that Julius is a lion. It is improbable that John picked up the apple. We doubt that if either 'Julius is a lion' or 'John picked up the apple' but not both then Jeff moved to the garden. It is probable that if either 'John picked up the apple' or 'Julius is a lion' but not both then Lily is a frog. It is impossible that if 'Julius is a lion and John picked up the apple' then Mary left the football.
There is almost no chance that 'Bernhard is white and Lily is a frog'.
There is almost no chance that 'Bernhard is white and Lily is a frog'.
There is a better than even chance that 'Bernhard is white and Lily is a frog'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.2::factA.
  0.1::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.7::factY:-xor(factC,factB).
  0.0::factZ:-and(factB,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factA,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Bernhard is white and Lily is a frog'.