There is a better than even chance that Fred moved to the office. We doubt that John dropped the apple. There is a better than even chance that Lily is green. It is highly unlikely that if 'John dropped the apple and Fred moved to the office' then Sumit is tired. We believe that if either 'Fred moved to the office' or 'Lily is green' but not both then Julius is a frog. Chances are about even that if either 'Fred moved to the office' or 'Lily is green' but not both then Mary went to the bedroom.
It is impossible that 'Sumit is tired and Fred moved to the office'.
It is impossible that 'Sumit is tired and Fred moved to the office'.
It is likely that 'Sumit is tired and Fred moved to the office'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.6::factA.
  0.2::factB.
  0.6::factC.
  %hop1
  0.05::factX:-and(factB,factA).
  0.75::factY:-xor(factA,factC).
  0.5::factZ:-xor(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factX,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Sumit is tired and Fred moved to the office'.