There is little chance that Antoine is bored. We believe that Jason is tired. There is little chance that Bill went to the garden. It is highly unlikely that if either 'Jason is tired' or 'Antoine is bored' but not both then Lily is a frog. It is highly likely that if 'Antoine is bored and Bill went to the garden' then Fred dropped the milk. There is a better than even chance that if 'Antoine is bored' or 'Bill went to the garden' or both then Julius is a swan.
We doubt that 'Jason is tired' or 'Julius is a swan' or both.
There is a very good chance that 'Jason is tired' or 'Julius is a swan' or both.
We doubt that 'Jason is tired' or 'Julius is a swan' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  0.75::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.05::factX:-xor(factB,factA).
  0.9::factY:-and(factA,factC).
  0.6::factZ:-or(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factB,factZ).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Jason is tired' or 'Julius is a swan' or both.