It is improbable that Lily is a lion. There is almost no chance that Julius is a swan. There is a very good chance that Mary moved to the garden. It is unlikely that if 'Lily is a lion' or 'Mary moved to the garden' or both then Bernhard is gray. It is improbable that if 'Mary moved to the garden' or 'Lily is a lion' or both then Sandra got the football. There is little chance that if either 'Julius is a swan' or 'Lily is a lion' but not both then Greg is a frog.
There is little chance that 'Greg is a frog' or 'Sandra got the football' or both.
There is little chance that 'Greg is a frog' or 'Sandra got the football' or both.
It is probable that 'Greg is a frog' or 'Sandra got the football' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  0.02::factB.
  0.8::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-or(factA,factC).
  0.1::factY:-or(factC,factA).
  0.1::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factZ,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Greg is a frog' or 'Sandra got the football' or both.