It is highly unlikely that Emily is a mouse. It is certain that Fred dropped the milk. There is almost no chance that Lily is a frog. It is certain that if 'Lily is a frog' or 'Fred dropped the milk' or both then John picked up the apple. There is a very good chance that if 'Lily is a frog and Fred dropped the milk' then Bernhard is a swan. It is highly unlikely that if either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Fred dropped the milk' but not both then Mary left the football.
There is almost no chance that 'Lily is a frog and Fred dropped the milk'.
There is almost no chance that 'Lily is a frog and Fred dropped the milk'.
Chances are about even that 'Lily is a frog and Fred dropped the milk'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.05::factA.
  1.0::factB.
  0.02::factC.
  %hop1
  1.0::factX:-or(factC,factB).
  0.8::factY:-and(factC,factB).
  0.05::factZ:-xor(factC,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factC,factB).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Lily is a frog and Fred dropped the milk'.