It is probably not the case that Julius is a frog. We doubt that Lily is green. It is unlikely that Sandra dropped the milk. It is probably the case that if 'Julius is a frog' or 'Sandra dropped the milk' or both then Emily is a sheep. We doubt that if 'Julius is a frog and Sandra dropped the milk' then Sumit is bored. There is almost no chance that if 'Julius is a frog and Lily is green' then John went to the hallway.
It is probably not the case that either 'Julius is a frog' or 'Sandra dropped the milk' but not both.
It is probably not the case that either 'Julius is a frog' or 'Sandra dropped the milk' but not both.
It is probable that either 'Julius is a frog' or 'Sandra dropped the milk' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.25::factA.
  0.2::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-or(factA,factC).
  0.2::factY:-and(factA,factC).
  0.02::factZ:-and(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factA,factC).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Julius is a frog' or 'Sandra dropped the milk' but not both.