It is probably the case that Jason is tired. It is highly unlikely that Bernhard is white. It is probably the case that John went to the garden. It is unlikely that if 'John went to the garden and Jason is tired' then Jessica is a wolf. It is almost certain that if 'Jason is tired' or 'John went to the garden' or both then Julius is yellow. It is likely that if 'Bernhard is white and John went to the garden' then Lily is a lion.
Chances are about even that either 'Jason is tired' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.
Chances are about even that either 'Jason is tired' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.
There is almost no chance that either 'Jason is tired' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.7::factA.
  0.05::factB.
  0.7::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-and(factC,factA).
  0.95::factY:-or(factA,factC).
  0.7::factZ:-and(factB,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factA,factC).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Jason is tired' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.