There is almost no chance that John moved to the office. It is probable that Bernhard is yellow. It is probable that Mary got the football. It is likely that if either 'Mary got the football' or 'John moved to the office' but not both then Julius is a frog. There is little chance that if 'John moved to the office and Mary got the football' then Greg is a rhino. It is highly unlikely that if either 'John moved to the office' or 'Bernhard is yellow' but not both then Jeff left the apple.
It is likely that 'Julius is a frog and Jeff left the apple'.
There is almost no chance that 'Julius is a frog and Jeff left the apple'.
It is likely that 'Julius is a frog and Jeff left the apple'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.02::factA.
  0.7::factB.
  0.7::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-xor(factC,factA).
  0.1::factY:-and(factA,factC).
  0.05::factZ:-xor(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factX,factZ).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Julius is a frog and Jeff left the apple'.