It is almost certain that Lily is a frog. It is almost certain that Jeff put down the milk. There is almost no chance that Greg is a swan. There is a better than even chance that if 'Lily is a frog and Greg is a swan' then Sandra got the football. It is almost certain that if either 'Jeff put down the milk' or 'Lily is a frog' but not both then Mary moved to the garden. We believe that if either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Greg is a swan' but not both then John grabbed the apple.
It is almost certain that either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Mary moved to the garden' but not both.
It is almost certain that either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Mary moved to the garden' but not both.
It is unlikely that either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Mary moved to the garden' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.95::factA.
  0.95::factB.
  0.02::factC.
  %hop1
  0.6::factX:-and(factA,factC).
  0.95::factY:-xor(factB,factA).
  0.75::factZ:-xor(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factA,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Mary moved to the garden' but not both.