Chances are about even that Mary went to the bedroom. It is almost certain that Julius is a lion. We doubt that Daniel got the apple. Chances are slight that if 'Julius is a lion and Daniel got the apple' then Greg is a swan. Chances are slight that if 'Julius is a lion' or 'Mary went to the bedroom' or both then Brian is a frog. There is little chance that if 'Daniel got the apple and Mary went to the bedroom' then Bernhard is green.
There is a very good chance that 'Julius is a lion and Brian is a frog'.
Chances are slight that 'Julius is a lion and Brian is a frog'.
There is a very good chance that 'Julius is a lion and Brian is a frog'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.5::factA.
  0.95::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-and(factB,factC).
  0.1::factY:-or(factB,factA).
  0.1::factZ:-and(factC,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factB,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Julius is a lion and Brian is a frog'.