There is a better than even chance that Jason is tired. It is highly unlikely that John went to the garden. It is almost certain that Lily is gray. It is probably not the case that if 'Lily is gray and Jason is tired' then Daniel dropped the apple. It is almost certain that if 'John went to the garden and Lily is gray' then Greg is a swan. It is probably the case that if 'John went to the garden and Lily is gray' then Bernhard is white.
It is probable that 'Daniel dropped the apple and Lily is gray'.
Chances are slight that 'Daniel dropped the apple and Lily is gray'.
It is probable that 'Daniel dropped the apple and Lily is gray'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.6::factA.
  0.05::factB.
  0.95::factC.
  %hop1
  0.25::factX:-and(factC,factA).
  0.95::factY:-and(factB,factC).
  0.7::factZ:-and(factB,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factX,factC).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Daniel dropped the apple and Lily is gray'.