We doubt that Bernhard is yellow. We doubt that Julius is a lion. It is unlikely that Sandra is in the kitchen. Chances are slight that if 'Julius is a lion and Sandra is in the kitchen' then Yann is thirsty. It is almost certain that if either 'Sandra is in the kitchen' or 'Julius is a lion' but not both then John got the football. There is a very good chance that if 'Sandra is in the kitchen' or 'Bernhard is yellow' or both then Mary went to the hallway.
It is almost certain that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Mary went to the hallway' but not both.
It is probably not the case that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Mary went to the hallway' but not both.
It is almost certain that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Mary went to the hallway' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.2::factA.
  0.2::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-and(factB,factC).
  0.95::factY:-xor(factC,factB).
  0.8::factZ:-or(factC,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factB,factZ).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Mary went to the hallway' but not both.