It is impossible that Julius is gray. It is probably the case that Mary left the football. It is highly unlikely that Bernhard is a frog. It is improbable that if either 'Julius is gray' or 'Mary left the football' but not both then Daniel took the milk. There is a better than even chance that if 'Julius is gray and Bernhard is a frog' then Brian is a lion. Chances are about even that if 'Julius is gray' or 'Mary left the football' or both then Lily is a rhino.
It is likely that either 'Lily is a rhino' or 'Daniel took the milk' but not both.
It is probably not the case that either 'Lily is a rhino' or 'Daniel took the milk' but not both.
It is likely that either 'Lily is a rhino' or 'Daniel took the milk' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.0::factA.
  0.7::factB.
  0.05::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-xor(factA,factB).
  0.6::factY:-and(factA,factC).
  0.5::factZ:-or(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factZ,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Lily is a rhino' or 'Daniel took the milk' but not both.