It is probably not the case that John discarded the apple. It is almost certain that Mary got the football. Chances are slight that Julius is a frog. Chances are slight that if 'John discarded the apple' or 'Julius is a frog' or both then Bernhard is green. Chances are slight that if either 'Mary got the football' or 'Julius is a frog' but not both then Brian is a rhino. There is a very good chance that if either 'John discarded the apple' or 'Mary got the football' but not both then Greg is a lion.
It is highly likely that either 'Bernhard is green' or 'Mary got the football' but not both.
It is highly likely that either 'Bernhard is green' or 'Mary got the football' but not both.
It is unlikely that either 'Bernhard is green' or 'Mary got the football' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.25::factA.
  0.95::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-or(factA,factC).
  0.1::factY:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.8::factZ:-xor(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factX,factB).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Bernhard is green' or 'Mary got the football' but not both.