Chances are slight that John went to the garden. It is certain that Winona is a mouse. There is almost no chance that Lily is a rhino. It is improbable that if 'John went to the garden and Winona is a mouse' then Bernhard is yellow. It is unlikely that if 'John went to the garden' or 'Winona is a mouse' or both then Julius is gray. We believe that if either 'Winona is a mouse' or 'John went to the garden' but not both then Daniel dropped the apple.
It is certain that 'Daniel dropped the apple' or 'Winona is a mouse' or both.
It is certain that 'Daniel dropped the apple' or 'Winona is a mouse' or both.
There is almost no chance that 'Daniel dropped the apple' or 'Winona is a mouse' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  1.0::factB.
  0.02::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-and(factA,factB).
  0.2::factY:-or(factA,factB).
  0.75::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factZ,factB).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Daniel dropped the apple' or 'Winona is a mouse' or both.