It is probable that John picked up the apple. There is almost no chance that Lily is gray. It is likely that Sandra is in the kitchen. There is little chance that if 'Lily is gray and John picked up the apple' then Mary went to the bedroom. It is improbable that if 'Lily is gray' or 'Sandra is in the kitchen' or both then Julius is a frog. Chances are about even that if 'John picked up the apple and Lily is gray' then Brian is a rhino.
Chances are about even that 'Lily is gray and Mary went to the bedroom'.
It is impossible that 'Lily is gray and Mary went to the bedroom'.
Chances are about even that 'Lily is gray and Mary went to the bedroom'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.7::factA.
  0.02::factB.
  0.7::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-and(factB,factA).
  0.1::factY:-or(factB,factC).
  0.5::factZ:-and(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factB,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Lily is gray and Mary went to the bedroom'.