There is almost no chance that John went to the garden. There is little chance that Julius is gray. It is unlikely that Winona is a wolf. It is unlikely that if either 'Julius is gray' or 'Winona is a wolf' but not both then Antoine is hungry. We believe that if either 'John went to the garden' or 'Julius is gray' but not both then Emily is a mouse. It is almost certain that if 'Julius is gray and Winona is a wolf' then Mary moved to the office.
It is highly unlikely that either 'Mary moved to the office' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.
It is highly unlikely that either 'Mary moved to the office' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.
There is a very good chance that either 'Mary moved to the office' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.02::factA.
  0.1::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.75::factY:-xor(factA,factB).
  0.95::factZ:-and(factB,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factZ,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Mary moved to the office' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.