Chances are about even that Antoine is thirsty. We believe that Mary went to the office. It is unlikely that Bernhard is a frog. It is improbable that if 'Bernhard is a frog and Antoine is thirsty' then Sandra left the apple. It is probably the case that if 'Antoine is thirsty and Bernhard is a frog' then John moved to the garden. We believe that if 'Antoine is thirsty' or 'Mary went to the office' or both then Lily is yellow.
We believe that 'Sandra left the apple' or 'John moved to the garden' or both.
It is highly unlikely that 'Sandra left the apple' or 'John moved to the garden' or both.
We believe that 'Sandra left the apple' or 'John moved to the garden' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.5::factA.
  0.75::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-and(factC,factA).
  0.7::factY:-and(factA,factC).
  0.75::factZ:-or(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factX,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Sandra left the apple' or 'John moved to the garden' or both.