It is improbable that Bernhard is gray. It is almost certain that Julius is gray. It is probably not the case that Mary got the football. There is little chance that if 'Bernhard is gray' or 'Mary got the football' or both then Jeff moved to the garden. There is a better than even chance that if either 'Julius is gray' or 'Mary got the football' but not both then Lily is a swan. There is almost no chance that if 'Mary got the football and Bernhard is gray' then Emily is a mouse.
It is highly likely that either 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Mary got the football' but not both.
It is probably not the case that either 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Mary got the football' but not both.
It is highly likely that either 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Mary got the football' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  0.95::factB.
  0.25::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-or(factA,factC).
  0.6::factY:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.02::factZ:-and(factC,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factZ,factC).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Mary got the football' but not both.