It is highly unlikely that Bernhard is green. Chances are about even that Lily is a lion. It is improbable that John got the apple. It is likely that if 'Lily is a lion' or 'John got the apple' or both then Jeff went to the garden. It is probable that if 'Lily is a lion' or 'John got the apple' or both then Julius is a frog. There is little chance that if 'John got the apple and Lily is a lion' then Brian is yellow.
It is likely that either 'Lily is a lion' or 'Jeff went to the garden' but not both.
It is unlikely that either 'Lily is a lion' or 'Jeff went to the garden' but not both.
It is likely that either 'Lily is a lion' or 'Jeff went to the garden' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.05::factA.
  0.5::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-or(factB,factC).
  0.7::factY:-or(factB,factC).
  0.1::factZ:-and(factC,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factB,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Lily is a lion' or 'Jeff went to the garden' but not both.