Chances are slight that Mary went to the hallway. It is likely that Jason is tired. Chances are slight that Lily is yellow. Chances are slight that if 'Mary went to the hallway' or 'Lily is yellow' or both then Bernhard is gray. It is almost certain that if either 'Lily is yellow' or 'Jason is tired' but not both then John left the milk. It is certain that if 'Mary went to the hallway and Lily is yellow' then Winona is a mouse.
It is unlikely that either 'Lily is yellow' or 'Mary went to the hallway' but not both.
It is unlikely that either 'Lily is yellow' or 'Mary went to the hallway' but not both.
It is probable that either 'Lily is yellow' or 'Mary went to the hallway' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  0.7::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-or(factA,factC).
  0.95::factY:-xor(factC,factB).
  1.0::factZ:-and(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factC,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Lily is yellow' or 'Mary went to the hallway' but not both.