It is almost certain that John moved to the garden. There is a better than even chance that Bill went to the office. There is almost no chance that Emily is a wolf. There is almost no chance that if either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'John moved to the garden' but not both then Winona is a mouse. Chances are slight that if 'John moved to the garden and Emily is a wolf' then Greg is yellow. It is probable that if either 'Bill went to the office' or 'John moved to the garden' but not both then Julius is a swan.
It is improbable that either 'Bill went to the office' or 'Julius is a swan' but not both.
There is a very good chance that either 'Bill went to the office' or 'Julius is a swan' but not both.
It is improbable that either 'Bill went to the office' or 'Julius is a swan' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.95::factA.
  0.6::factB.
  0.02::factC.
  %hop1
  0.02::factX:-xor(factC,factA).
  0.1::factY:-and(factA,factC).
  0.7::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factB,factZ).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Bill went to the office' or 'Julius is a swan' but not both.