It is almost certain that Bernhard is a frog. It is likely that Winona is a mouse. There is almost no chance that Mary got the apple. We doubt that if 'Winona is a mouse and Bernhard is a frog' then John went to the garden. It is probably not the case that if either 'Winona is a mouse' or 'Mary got the apple' but not both then Brian is yellow. There is almost no chance that if 'Winona is a mouse and Bernhard is a frog' then Lily is a lion.
There is little chance that either 'Lily is a lion' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.
There is little chance that either 'Lily is a lion' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.
It is likely that either 'Lily is a lion' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.95::factA.
  0.7::factB.
  0.02::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-and(factB,factA).
  0.25::factY:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.02::factZ:-and(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factZ,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Lily is a lion' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.