There is almost no chance that Julius is a frog. It is almost certain that Jeff moved to the garden. It is certain that Winona is a sheep. There is a better than even chance that if 'Winona is a sheep and Jeff moved to the garden' then Lily is white. It is probable that if 'Winona is a sheep and Jeff moved to the garden' then Antoine is hungry. It is likely that if either 'Jeff moved to the garden' or 'Julius is a frog' but not both then Fred dropped the milk.
Chances are about even that 'Lily is white and Fred dropped the milk'.
Chances are about even that 'Lily is white and Fred dropped the milk'.
It is highly unlikely that 'Lily is white and Fred dropped the milk'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.02::factA.
  0.95::factB.
  1.0::factC.
  %hop1
  0.6::factX:-and(factC,factB).
  0.7::factY:-and(factC,factB).
  0.7::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factX,factZ).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Lily is white and Fred dropped the milk'.