It is highly likely that Lily is a frog. We doubt that Mary went to the garden. It is highly unlikely that Bill moved to the office. It is likely that if 'Lily is a frog and Mary went to the garden' then Brian is a swan. It is probable that if 'Lily is a frog' or 'Mary went to the garden' or both then Bernhard is green. Chances are about even that if 'Lily is a frog' or 'Bill moved to the office' or both then Sandra got the football.
It is probably not the case that either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Bernhard is green' but not both.
It is probably not the case that either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Bernhard is green' but not both.
There is a very good chance that either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Bernhard is green' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.9::factA.
  0.2::factB.
  0.05::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-and(factA,factB).
  0.7::factY:-or(factA,factB).
  0.5::factZ:-or(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factA,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Bernhard is green' but not both.