It is highly unlikely that Julius is a lion. There is a better than even chance that Mary put down the apple. We doubt that Fred is in the cinema. It is probably the case that if either 'Fred is in the cinema' or 'Julius is a lion' but not both then Bernhard is white. It is improbable that if 'Fred is in the cinema' or 'Mary put down the apple' or both then Jeff dropped the apple. There is almost no chance that if either 'Mary put down the apple' or 'Julius is a lion' but not both then Brian is a swan.
It is almost certain that 'Jeff dropped the apple' or 'Bernhard is white' or both.
It is unlikely that 'Jeff dropped the apple' or 'Bernhard is white' or both.
It is almost certain that 'Jeff dropped the apple' or 'Bernhard is white' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.05::factA.
  0.6::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-xor(factC,factA).
  0.1::factY:-or(factC,factB).
  0.02::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factY,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Jeff dropped the apple' or 'Bernhard is white' or both.