There is almost no chance that Julius is a frog. There is almost no chance that Bernhard is white. It is probably not the case that Lily is a lion. It is unlikely that if either 'Lily is a lion' or 'Julius is a frog' but not both then Yann is bored. It is impossible that if 'Lily is a lion' or 'Julius is a frog' or both then Jason is thirsty. It is unlikely that if either 'Bernhard is white' or 'Julius is a frog' but not both then John picked up the apple.
It is probably the case that 'Julius is a frog' or 'Yann is bored' or both.
It is highly unlikely that 'Julius is a frog' or 'Yann is bored' or both.
It is probably the case that 'Julius is a frog' or 'Yann is bored' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.02::factA.
  0.02::factB.
  0.25::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-xor(factC,factA).
  0.0::factY:-or(factC,factA).
  0.2::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factA,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Julius is a frog' or 'Yann is bored' or both.