It is almost certain that Julius is a lion. It is probably not the case that Daniel took the football. It is probably not the case that Brian is a frog. It is highly unlikely that if 'Brian is a frog and Julius is a lion' then Mary is in the school. There is little chance that if 'Daniel took the football and Brian is a frog' then Sandra dropped the milk. It is impossible that if 'Daniel took the football and Julius is a lion' then Lily is green.
It is likely that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Daniel took the football' but not both.
It is likely that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Daniel took the football' but not both.
It is impossible that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Daniel took the football' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.95::factA.
  0.25::factB.
  0.25::factC.
  %hop1
  0.05::factX:-and(factC,factA).
  0.1::factY:-and(factB,factC).
  0.0::factZ:-and(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factA,factB).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Daniel took the football' but not both.