It is improbable that Winona is a cat. It is highly unlikely that Lily is white. There is a better than even chance that Mary went to the garden. It is unlikely that if either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Lily is white' but not both then Antoine is hungry. It is unlikely that if either 'Lily is white' or 'Winona is a cat' but not both then John got the apple. There is almost no chance that if either 'Mary went to the garden' or 'Winona is a cat' but not both then Bernhard is green.
Chances are slight that either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Bernhard is green' but not both.
Chances are slight that either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Bernhard is green' but not both.
There is a better than even chance that either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Bernhard is green' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  0.05::factB.
  0.6::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-xor(factA,factB).
  0.2::factY:-xor(factB,factA).
  0.02::factZ:-xor(factC,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factA,factZ).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Bernhard is green' but not both.