It is almost certain that Brian is yellow. There is a very good chance that Lily is a swan. It is unlikely that Julius is green. There is a better than even chance that if either 'Lily is a swan' or 'Brian is yellow' but not both then Sandra grabbed the apple. It is probably not the case that if 'Julius is green and Lily is a swan' then Bernhard is white. It is highly unlikely that if 'Julius is green' or 'Lily is a swan' or both then Fred went to the garden.
It is likely that either 'Lily is a swan' or 'Brian is yellow' but not both.
It is probably not the case that either 'Lily is a swan' or 'Brian is yellow' but not both.
It is likely that either 'Lily is a swan' or 'Brian is yellow' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.95::factA.
  0.8::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.6::factX:-xor(factB,factA).
  0.25::factY:-and(factC,factB).
  0.05::factZ:-or(factC,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factB,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Lily is a swan' or 'Brian is yellow' but not both.