It is highly unlikely that John dropped the apple. It is highly likely that Bernhard is a swan. It is improbable that Mary went to the garden. It is probably not the case that if 'John dropped the apple' or 'Mary went to the garden' or both then Lily is a frog. There is a very good chance that if either 'John dropped the apple' or 'Bernhard is a swan' but not both then Greg is a rhino. Chances are about even that if 'Mary went to the garden' or 'Bernhard is a swan' or both then Jason is tired.
It is likely that 'John dropped the apple and Lily is a frog'.
There is almost no chance that 'John dropped the apple and Lily is a frog'.
It is likely that 'John dropped the apple and Lily is a frog'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.05::factA.
  0.9::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.25::factX:-or(factA,factC).
  0.8::factY:-xor(factA,factB).
  0.5::factZ:-or(factC,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factA,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
'John dropped the apple and Lily is a frog'.