Chances are about even that Jason is thirsty. It is highly unlikely that Mary moved to the garden. It is probably the case that Daniel left the apple. It is highly likely that if either 'Mary moved to the garden' or 'Jason is thirsty' but not both then Lily is yellow. It is probable that if either 'Jason is thirsty' or 'Daniel left the apple' but not both then Bernhard is gray. It is highly likely that if 'Jason is thirsty and Mary moved to the garden' then Emily is a mouse.
There is a very good chance that 'Bernhard is gray' or 'Daniel left the apple' or both.
There is a very good chance that 'Bernhard is gray' or 'Daniel left the apple' or both.
It is improbable that 'Bernhard is gray' or 'Daniel left the apple' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.5::factA.
  0.05::factB.
  0.7::factC.
  %hop1
  0.9::factX:-xor(factB,factA).
  0.7::factY:-xor(factA,factC).
  0.9::factZ:-and(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factY,factC).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Bernhard is gray' or 'Daniel left the apple' or both.