We doubt that Bernhard is yellow. It is highly unlikely that Fred left the apple. There is little chance that John went to the hallway. It is probably not the case that if 'John went to the hallway and Bernhard is yellow' then Jason is tired. There is little chance that if either 'John went to the hallway' or 'Bernhard is yellow' but not both then Brian is green. We believe that if either 'John went to the hallway' or 'Fred left the apple' but not both then Julius is a frog.
It is almost certain that 'Jason is tired' or 'Bernhard is yellow' or both.
We doubt that 'Jason is tired' or 'Bernhard is yellow' or both.
It is almost certain that 'Jason is tired' or 'Bernhard is yellow' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.2::factA.
  0.05::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.25::factX:-and(factC,factA).
  0.1::factY:-xor(factC,factA).
  0.75::factZ:-xor(factC,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factX,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Jason is tired' or 'Bernhard is yellow' or both.