Chances are slight that Winona is a mouse. It is highly likely that Jeff moved to the office. There is little chance that Mary left the football. It is probably not the case that if 'Mary left the football' or 'Winona is a mouse' or both then Julius is green. It is highly unlikely that if 'Mary left the football' or 'Winona is a mouse' or both then Bernhard is a frog. Chances are about even that if 'Mary left the football' or 'Jeff moved to the office' or both then Emily is a wolf.
There is almost no chance that 'Winona is a mouse and Julius is green'.
There is almost no chance that 'Winona is a mouse and Julius is green'.
We believe that 'Winona is a mouse and Julius is green'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  0.9::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.25::factX:-or(factC,factA).
  0.05::factY:-or(factC,factA).
  0.5::factZ:-or(factC,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factA,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Winona is a mouse and Julius is green'.