It is highly unlikely that Emily is a wolf. It is probably not the case that Winona is a sheep. There is almost no chance that Julius is gray. We believe that if either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Julius is gray' but not both then Jeff went to the bedroom. Chances are about even that if 'Emily is a wolf and Julius is gray' then Brian is white. It is probably not the case that if 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Julius is gray' or both then Jason is tired.
It is almost certain that either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.
It is probably not the case that either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.
It is almost certain that either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.05::factA.
  0.25::factB.
  0.02::factC.
  %hop1
  0.75::factX:-xor(factA,factC).
  0.5::factY:-and(factA,factC).
  0.25::factZ:-or(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factA,factB).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Emily is a wolf' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.