It is unlikely that Sandra got the football. It is unlikely that John moved to the garden. There is almost no chance that Julius is yellow. There is little chance that if either 'Julius is yellow' or 'Sandra got the football' but not both then Daniel dropped the milk. It is probably the case that if 'John moved to the garden and Sandra got the football' then Brian is a frog. There is almost no chance that if either 'John moved to the garden' or 'Sandra got the football' but not both then Bernhard is yellow.
We doubt that either 'Julius is yellow' or 'Sandra got the football' but not both.
We doubt that either 'Julius is yellow' or 'Sandra got the football' but not both.
There is a very good chance that either 'Julius is yellow' or 'Sandra got the football' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.2::factA.
  0.2::factB.
  0.02::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-xor(factC,factA).
  0.7::factY:-and(factB,factA).
  0.02::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factC,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Julius is yellow' or 'Sandra got the football' but not both.