It is impossible that John took the apple. Chances are about even that Fred moved to the office. There is a very good chance that Lily is green. It is probable that if 'John took the apple and Fred moved to the office' then Sandra dropped the milk. It is likely that if 'Fred moved to the office' or 'Lily is green' or both then Brian is a rhino. It is almost certain that if 'Fred moved to the office and Lily is green' then Julius is a frog.
There is almost no chance that either 'Lily is green' or 'John took the apple' but not both.
There is a very good chance that either 'Lily is green' or 'John took the apple' but not both.
There is almost no chance that either 'Lily is green' or 'John took the apple' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.0::factA.
  0.5::factB.
  0.8::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-and(factA,factB).
  0.7::factY:-or(factB,factC).
  0.95::factZ:-and(factB,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factC,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Lily is green' or 'John took the apple' but not both.