We believe that Lily is a lion. It is unlikely that Julius is a swan. It is almost certain that Sandra took the football. There is a very good chance that if 'Sandra took the football and Lily is a lion' then Bernhard is a frog. Chances are slight that if 'Lily is a lion and Julius is a swan' then John went to the hallway. It is highly likely that if 'Julius is a swan' or 'Lily is a lion' or both then Mary got the milk.
Chances are about even that either 'Sandra took the football' or 'Bernhard is a frog' but not both.
Chances are about even that either 'Sandra took the football' or 'Bernhard is a frog' but not both.
There is almost no chance that either 'Sandra took the football' or 'Bernhard is a frog' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.75::factA.
  0.2::factB.
  0.95::factC.
  %hop1
  0.8::factX:-and(factC,factA).
  0.1::factY:-and(factA,factB).
  0.9::factZ:-or(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factC,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Sandra took the football' or 'Bernhard is a frog' but not both.