It is unlikely that Mary went to the bedroom. It is highly unlikely that John dropped the apple. There is almost no chance that Brian is white. It is improbable that if either 'Mary went to the bedroom' or 'Brian is white' but not both then Julius is a swan. It is probably the case that if either 'John dropped the apple' or 'Mary went to the bedroom' but not both then Lily is a lion. It is highly likely that if either 'Mary went to the bedroom' or 'John dropped the apple' but not both then Bernhard is gray.
There is almost no chance that 'John dropped the apple and Mary went to the bedroom'.
There is almost no chance that 'John dropped the apple and Mary went to the bedroom'.
Chances are about even that 'John dropped the apple and Mary went to the bedroom'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.2::factA.
  0.05::factB.
  0.02::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-xor(factA,factC).
  0.7::factY:-xor(factB,factA).
  0.9::factZ:-xor(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factB,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
'John dropped the apple and Mary went to the bedroom'.