It is almost certain that Jessica is a cat. It is probable that Winona is a sheep. It is highly unlikely that John moved to the garden. It is probable that if 'John moved to the garden and Jessica is a cat' then Sandra dropped the milk. It is likely that if 'Jessica is a cat and John moved to the garden' then Mary went to the bedroom. It is probably not the case that if either 'John moved to the garden' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both then Bernhard is a swan.
There is almost no chance that either 'Mary went to the bedroom' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.
It is likely that either 'Mary went to the bedroom' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.
There is almost no chance that either 'Mary went to the bedroom' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.95::factA.
  0.7::factB.
  0.05::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-and(factC,factA).
  0.7::factY:-and(factA,factC).
  0.25::factZ:-xor(factC,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factY,factB).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Mary went to the bedroom' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.