It is highly unlikely that Lily is a frog. Chances are about even that Bill moved to the office. It is unlikely that Mary left the football. There is almost no chance that if 'Bill moved to the office and Mary left the football' then Julius is a rhino. It is highly unlikely that if either 'Mary left the football' or 'Lily is a frog' but not both then Bernhard is a swan. It is improbable that if 'Mary left the football' or 'Lily is a frog' or both then John dropped the apple.
It is highly likely that 'Mary left the football and John dropped the apple'.
There is almost no chance that 'Mary left the football and John dropped the apple'.
It is highly likely that 'Mary left the football and John dropped the apple'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.05::factA.
  0.5::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.02::factX:-and(factB,factC).
  0.05::factY:-xor(factC,factA).
  0.1::factZ:-or(factC,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factC,factZ).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Mary left the football and John dropped the apple'.