Chances are slight that Mary moved to the garden. There is almost no chance that Winona is a cat. It is highly unlikely that Brian is white. Chances are slight that if 'Mary moved to the garden and Winona is a cat' then Emily is a mouse. There is little chance that if 'Winona is a cat' or 'Brian is white' or both then Lily is green. It is highly unlikely that if 'Mary moved to the garden and Winona is a cat' then Bernhard is a rhino.
It is impossible that either 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Lily is green' but not both.
It is impossible that either 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Lily is green' but not both.
It is probable that either 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Lily is green' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  0.02::factB.
  0.05::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-and(factA,factB).
  0.1::factY:-or(factB,factC).
  0.05::factZ:-and(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factX,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Lily is green' but not both.