We believe that Jason is tired. There is a very good chance that Daniel took the apple. We doubt that Greg is yellow. It is certain that if 'Jason is tired' or 'Greg is yellow' or both then Lily is yellow. It is likely that if either 'Jason is tired' or 'Daniel took the apple' but not both then John dropped the milk. It is impossible that if 'Jason is tired and Greg is yellow' then Julius is a frog.
There is a very good chance that either 'Daniel took the apple' or 'Julius is a frog' but not both.
There is a very good chance that either 'Daniel took the apple' or 'Julius is a frog' but not both.
It is highly unlikely that either 'Daniel took the apple' or 'Julius is a frog' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.75::factA.
  0.8::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  1.0::factX:-or(factA,factC).
  0.7::factY:-xor(factA,factB).
  0.0::factZ:-and(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factB,factZ).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Daniel took the apple' or 'Julius is a frog' but not both.