It is highly unlikely that Mary went to the garden. It is almost certain that Julius is a swan. Chances are slight that Winona is a sheep. Chances are slight that if 'Julius is a swan and Mary went to the garden' then Brian is a rhino. Chances are about even that if 'Julius is a swan and Mary went to the garden' then Sandra grabbed the apple. There is little chance that if 'Mary went to the garden and Julius is a swan' then Greg is a frog.
There is almost no chance that 'Julius is a swan and Sandra grabbed the apple'.
There is almost no chance that 'Julius is a swan and Sandra grabbed the apple'.
It is probable that 'Julius is a swan and Sandra grabbed the apple'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.05::factA.
  0.95::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-and(factB,factA).
  0.5::factY:-and(factB,factA).
  0.1::factZ:-and(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factB,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Julius is a swan and Sandra grabbed the apple'.