It is unlikely that Fred left the football. Chances are slight that Julius is white. There is little chance that Lily is a frog. It is unlikely that if either 'Fred left the football' or 'Julius is white' but not both then Greg is a lion. There is almost no chance that if either 'Lily is a frog' or 'Julius is white' but not both then Bernhard is green. It is unlikely that if 'Fred left the football and Lily is a frog' then John moved to the garden.
There is almost no chance that 'Julius is white and Fred left the football'.
There is almost no chance that 'Julius is white and Fred left the football'.
Chances are about even that 'Julius is white and Fred left the football'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.2::factA.
  0.1::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-xor(factA,factB).
  0.02::factY:-xor(factC,factB).
  0.2::factZ:-and(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factB,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Julius is white and Fred left the football'.