There is a better than even chance that Lily is a lion. It is improbable that Brian is a frog. There is almost no chance that Winona is a cat. It is unlikely that if either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Brian is a frog' but not both then Daniel took the football. There is a better than even chance that if either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Brian is a frog' but not both then Mary dropped the apple. We doubt that if 'Lily is a lion' or 'Brian is a frog' or both then Sandra put down the milk.
It is highly likely that either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Brian is a frog' but not both.
It is improbable that either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Brian is a frog' but not both.
It is highly likely that either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Brian is a frog' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.6::factA.
  0.1::factB.
  0.02::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-xor(factC,factB).
  0.6::factY:-xor(factC,factB).
  0.2::factZ:-or(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factC,factB).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Winona is a cat' or 'Brian is a frog' but not both.