It is probably the case that Winona is a wolf. We doubt that John put down the apple. It is probable that Daniel took the football. It is probable that if 'John put down the apple' or 'Daniel took the football' or both then Lily is a rhino. There is almost no chance that if 'Daniel took the football and John put down the apple' then Julius is green. There is a very good chance that if 'John put down the apple and Daniel took the football' then Mary got the milk.
It is highly unlikely that either 'Mary got the milk' or 'Daniel took the football' but not both.
There is a better than even chance that either 'Mary got the milk' or 'Daniel took the football' but not both.
It is highly unlikely that either 'Mary got the milk' or 'Daniel took the football' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.7::factA.
  0.2::factB.
  0.7::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-or(factB,factC).
  0.02::factY:-and(factC,factB).
  0.8::factZ:-and(factB,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factZ,factC).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Mary got the milk' or 'Daniel took the football' but not both.