We doubt that Fred dropped the milk. It is almost certain that Julius is a lion. It is improbable that Lily is a frog. There is almost no chance that if either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Lily is a frog' but not both then Daniel got the football. It is highly unlikely that if 'Lily is a frog' or 'Fred dropped the milk' or both then Mary went to the hallway. It is almost certain that if 'Fred dropped the milk and Julius is a lion' then Bernhard is a rhino.
It is almost certain that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Daniel got the football' but not both.
It is almost certain that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Daniel got the football' but not both.
There is little chance that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Daniel got the football' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.2::factA.
  0.95::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.02::factX:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.05::factY:-or(factC,factA).
  0.95::factZ:-and(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factB,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Daniel got the football' but not both.