Chances are slight that Bernhard is green. It is highly unlikely that Winona is a sheep. It is likely that John put down the apple. We doubt that if 'Winona is a sheep' or 'John put down the apple' or both then Lily is yellow. We doubt that if either 'John put down the apple' or 'Bernhard is green' but not both then Sandra dropped the milk. There is almost no chance that if 'John put down the apple and Bernhard is green' then Julius is a swan.
It is probably the case that 'Julius is a swan' or 'Lily is yellow' or both.
Chances are slight that 'Julius is a swan' or 'Lily is yellow' or both.
It is probably the case that 'Julius is a swan' or 'Lily is yellow' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.1::factA.
  0.05::factB.
  0.7::factC.
  %hop1
  0.2::factX:-or(factB,factC).
  0.2::factY:-xor(factC,factA).
  0.02::factZ:-and(factC,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factZ,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Julius is a swan' or 'Lily is yellow' or both.