There is almost no chance that Julius is a frog. We believe that Lily is yellow. It is probable that John went to the kitchen. There is almost no chance that if 'Julius is a frog' or 'Lily is yellow' or both then Gertrude is a cat. It is likely that if either 'Lily is yellow' or 'John went to the kitchen' but not both then Emily is a cat. It is almost certain that if 'Julius is a frog' or 'Lily is yellow' or both then Mary dropped the milk.
It is unlikely that 'Mary dropped the milk and Emily is a cat'.
It is unlikely that 'Mary dropped the milk and Emily is a cat'.
It is highly likely that 'Mary dropped the milk and Emily is a cat'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.02::factA.
  0.75::factB.
  0.7::factC.
  %hop1
  0.02::factX:-or(factA,factB).
  0.7::factY:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.95::factZ:-or(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factZ,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Mary dropped the milk and Emily is a cat'.