There is a better than even chance that John discarded the apple. It is almost certain that Bernhard is a rhino. It is probably not the case that Lily is green. Chances are slight that if 'Bernhard is a rhino and John discarded the apple' then Jessica is a cat. It is probable that if 'Lily is green and Bernhard is a rhino' then Mary got the milk. It is probable that if either 'Bernhard is a rhino' or 'John discarded the apple' but not both then Brian is a swan.
Chances are about even that 'Brian is a swan and Mary got the milk'.
It is highly unlikely that 'Brian is a swan and Mary got the milk'.
Chances are about even that 'Brian is a swan and Mary got the milk'.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.6::factA.
  0.95::factB.
  0.25::factC.
  %hop1
  0.1::factX:-and(factB,factA).
  0.7::factY:-and(factC,factB).
  0.7::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-and(factZ,factY).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Brian is a swan and Mary got the milk'.