We believe that Bernhard is a frog. There is little chance that Julius is a lion. It is highly unlikely that Daniel grabbed the apple. It is probable that if either 'Daniel grabbed the apple' or 'Bernhard is a frog' but not both then Sumit is hungry. It is likely that if either 'Daniel grabbed the apple' or 'Julius is a lion' but not both then Mary moved to the garden. It is highly likely that if 'Daniel grabbed the apple and Julius is a lion' then Winona is a wolf.
There is almost no chance that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Sumit is hungry' but not both.
Chances are about even that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Sumit is hungry' but not both.
There is almost no chance that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Sumit is hungry' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.75::factA.
  0.1::factB.
  0.05::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-xor(factC,factA).
  0.7::factY:-xor(factC,factB).
  0.9::factZ:-and(factC,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factB,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Sumit is hungry' but not both.