We doubt that Emily is a mouse. It is probable that Julius is a lion. It is almost certain that Jeff went to the bedroom. It is likely that if either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Jeff went to the bedroom' but not both then Winona is a sheep. It is unlikely that if either 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Julius is a lion' but not both then Sandra left the milk. There is a better than even chance that if 'Emily is a mouse and Jeff went to the bedroom' then Lily is yellow.
There is little chance that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.
It is highly likely that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.
There is little chance that either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.2::factA.
  0.7::factB.
  0.95::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.2::factY:-xor(factA,factB).
  0.6::factZ:-and(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factB,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Julius is a lion' or 'Winona is a sheep' but not both.