It is highly unlikely that Fred discarded the apple. It is unlikely that Lily is a lion. There is a better than even chance that Greg is a frog. It is almost certain that if either 'Fred discarded the apple' or 'Lily is a lion' but not both then Jessica is a sheep. It is probable that if 'Lily is a lion and Fred discarded the apple' then Daniel left the milk. There is little chance that if 'Fred discarded the apple and Lily is a lion' then Julius is white.
We believe that 'Jessica is a sheep' or 'Lily is a lion' or both.
It is probably not the case that 'Jessica is a sheep' or 'Lily is a lion' or both.
We believe that 'Jessica is a sheep' or 'Lily is a lion' or both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.05::factA.
  0.2::factB.
  0.6::factC.
  %hop1
  0.95::factX:-xor(factA,factB).
  0.7::factY:-and(factB,factA).
  0.1::factZ:-and(factA,factB).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-or(factX,factB).

  query(conclusion).
  
'Jessica is a sheep' or 'Lily is a lion' or both.