It is probably the case that Daniel took the football. It is almost certain that Mary dropped the apple. There is almost no chance that Brian is a swan. Chances are about even that if 'Brian is a swan' or 'Mary dropped the apple' or both then Emily is a mouse. It is almost certain that if either 'Daniel took the football' or 'Mary dropped the apple' but not both then Bernhard is white. There is almost no chance that if 'Mary dropped the apple' or 'Brian is a swan' or both then Jeff left the football.
Chances are about even that either 'Daniel took the football' or 'Emily is a mouse' but not both.
Chances are about even that either 'Daniel took the football' or 'Emily is a mouse' but not both.
There is almost no chance that either 'Daniel took the football' or 'Emily is a mouse' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.7::factA.
  0.95::factB.
  0.02::factC.
  %hop1
  0.5::factX:-or(factC,factB).
  0.95::factY:-xor(factA,factB).
  0.02::factZ:-or(factB,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factA,factX).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Daniel took the football' or 'Emily is a mouse' but not both.