There is almost no chance that John went to the garden. It is probably not the case that Jason is tired. It is impossible that Julius is yellow. It is probable that if either 'Jason is tired' or 'Julius is yellow' but not both then Mary put down the apple. It is improbable that if either 'Julius is yellow' or 'Jason is tired' but not both then Daniel took the apple. Chances are about even that if 'Jason is tired and John went to the garden' then Jessica is a sheep.
There is almost no chance that either 'Julius is yellow' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.
There is almost no chance that either 'Julius is yellow' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.
It is probable that either 'Julius is yellow' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.02::factA.
  0.25::factB.
  0.0::factC.
  %hop1
  0.7::factX:-xor(factB,factC).
  0.1::factY:-xor(factC,factB).
  0.5::factZ:-and(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factC,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Julius is yellow' or 'John went to the garden' but not both.