It is certain that Jason is bored. It is almost certain that Emily is a mouse. We doubt that Julius is a swan. It is highly likely that if 'Jason is bored' or 'Julius is a swan' or both then Lily is a frog. Chances are slight that if 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Jason is bored' or both then Winona is a wolf. It is impossible that if 'Emily is a mouse' or 'Jason is bored' or both then Greg is gray.
It is highly likely that either 'Winona is a wolf' or 'Jason is bored' but not both.
It is highly likely that either 'Winona is a wolf' or 'Jason is bored' but not both.
It is probably not the case that either 'Winona is a wolf' or 'Jason is bored' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  1.0::factA.
  0.95::factB.
  0.2::factC.
  %hop1
  0.9::factX:-or(factA,factC).
  0.1::factY:-or(factB,factA).
  0.0::factZ:-or(factB,factA).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factY,factA).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'Winona is a wolf' or 'Jason is bored' but not both.