It is almost certain that Brian is green. There is a better than even chance that Lily is a frog. It is improbable that Mary took the football. There is a very good chance that if 'Brian is green and Lily is a frog' then John put down the apple. It is certain that if 'Mary took the football and Lily is a frog' then Julius is yellow. It is probable that if 'Brian is green and Mary took the football' then Bernhard is a swan.
Chances are about even that either 'John put down the apple' or 'Mary took the football' but not both.
Chances are about even that either 'John put down the apple' or 'Mary took the football' but not both.
There is almost no chance that either 'John put down the apple' or 'Mary took the football' but not both.

  and(A,B) :- A,B.
  or(A,B) :- A;B.
  nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
  nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
  xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).

  %hop0
  0.95::factA.
  0.6::factB.
  0.1::factC.
  %hop1
  0.8::factX:-and(factA,factB).
  1.0::factY:-and(factC,factB).
  0.7::factZ:-and(factA,factC).

  %hop2
  conclusion:-xor(factX,factC).

  query(conclusion).
  
Either 'John put down the apple' or 'Mary took the football' but not both.