A man is illuminated by a street lamp as he walks towards a stately brick building with blue doors at night .
Chances are about even that a man in a black coat walks to a ritzy hotel at night .
It is impossible that a man in a black coat walks to a ritzy hotel at night .
Chances are about even that a man in a black coat walks to a ritzy hotel at night .
A man in a black coat walks to a ritzy hotel at night .