A man in a black shirt and a cast smokes a cigarette .
It is unlikely that a man in a cast and a black shirt is holding a lit cigarrette .
It is almost certain that a man in a cast and a black shirt is holding a lit cigarrette .
It is unlikely that a man in a cast and a black shirt is holding a lit cigarrette .
A man in a cast and a black shirt is holding a lit cigarrette .