Costumed girl playing with a hula-hoop in a crowd .
It is almost certain that a girl is being watched as she uses a hula-hoop while wearing a costume .
It is almost certain that a girl is being watched as she uses a hula-hoop while wearing a costume .
It is improbable that a girl is being watched as she uses a hula-hoop while wearing a costume .
A girl is being watched as she uses a hula-hoop while wearing a costume .