A woman in a red shirt plays a cello .
It is probably not the case that a woman in her favorite red shirt is playing a cello at a concert .
It is probably not the case that a woman in her favorite red shirt is playing a cello at a concert .
There is a very good chance that a woman in her favorite red shirt is playing a cello at a concert .
A woman in her favorite red shirt is playing a cello at a concert .