There is a man swinging off a rope swing into a lake .
It is highly unlikely that a man swings off a rope into a lake during a cannonball contest .
It is highly unlikely that a man swings off a rope into a lake during a cannonball contest .
It is probable that a man swings off a rope into a lake during a cannonball contest .
A man swings off a rope into a lake during a cannonball contest .