Punctuated equilibrium in social theory
Introduction


**Punctuated equilibrium in social theory** is a [conceptual framework](/wiki/Conceptual_framework "Conceptual framework") for understanding the process of [change](/wiki/Social_change "Social change") in complex [social systems](/wiki/Social_system "Social system"). The approach studies the evolution of policy change,Baumgartner, Frank and Bryan D. Jones (1993\). *[Agendas and Instability in American Politics](https://books.google.com/books?id=0WtEOcK_Y8wC)*. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. including the evolution of conflicts.Cioffi\-Revilla, Claudio (1998\). ["The political uncertainty of interstate rivalries: A punctuated equilibrium model."](https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=Dr2xTy8NuHcC&pg=PA64) In Paul Diehl *The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries*. Chicago: University of Illinois Press, pp. 64\-97\. The theory posits that most social systems exist in an extended period of stasis, which may be punctuated by sudden shifts leading to radical change. The theory was largely inspired by the [evolutionary biology](/wiki/Evolutionary_biology "Evolutionary biology") theory of [punctuated equilibrium](/wiki/Punctuated_equilibrium "Punctuated equilibrium") developed by [paleontologists](/wiki/Paleontology "Paleontology") [Niles Eldredge](/wiki/Niles_Eldredge "Niles Eldredge") and [Stephen Jay Gould](/wiki/Stephen_Jay_Gould "Stephen Jay Gould").


How does punctuated equilibrium help predict future conflicts?