#=
  A/B testing, given lists of successes for A and B

  Testing somewhat larger instance (750 entries)

  True pA: 0.5
  True pB: 0.4

  Not too bad, but I'm not happy with the rhat values for pB.
  Here's the result for SMC():
  """
  Summary Statistics
     parameters      mean       std   naive_se      mcse       ess      rhat   ess_per_sec 
         Symbol   Float64   Float64    Float64   Float64   Float64   Float64       Float64 

             pA    0.0626    0.0122     0.0001    0.0010   48.0229    1.0040        0.6051
             pB    0.0369    0.0086     0.0001    0.0007   41.4276    1.0830        0.5220
           diff    0.0257    0.0154     0.0002    0.0013   42.5037    1.0447        0.5355
  aGreaterThanB    0.9450    0.2280     0.0023    0.0192   49.0300    1.0013        0.6178

  Quantiles
     parameters      2.5%     25.0%     50.0%     75.0%     97.5% 
         Symbol   Float64   Float64   Float64   Float64   Float64 

             pA    0.0383    0.0558    0.0635    0.0760    0.0900
             pB    0.0238    0.0311    0.0387    0.0399    0.0575
           diff   -0.0039    0.0171    0.0248    0.0316    0.0562
  aGreaterThanB    0.0000    1.0000    1.0000    1.0000    1.0000

  Credible interval for diff with mass 0.9: (0.002490..0.049147)
  """

  Cf ~/pymc3/ab_test.py
     ~/blog/ab_testing2.blog
     ~/webppl/ab_testing2.wppl

=#  

using Turing, StatsPlots, DataFrames
# using ReverseDiff, Zygote, Tracker
# Turing.setadbackend(:reversediff)
# Turing.setadbackend(:zygote)
# Turing.setadbackend(:tracker)

include("jl_utils.jl")

@model function ab_testing2(as,bs)
    n = length(as)
    
    pA ~ Beta(1,1) # true prob: 0.05
    pB ~ Beta(1,1) # true prob: 0.04
    
    for i in 1:n
        as[i] ~ flip(pA)
        bs[i] ~ flip(pB)
    end

    diff ~ Dirac(pA - pB)
    aGreaterThanB ~ Dirac(diff > 0)
    
end

# Generated by ./gener_data.pl
# True prob 0.05 
# random_binomial(750,1,0.05);   
as = [0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,
      0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0];


# True prob = 0.04
# random_binomial(750,1,0.04);
bs = [0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,
      0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0];

model = ab_testing2(as,bs)

num_chns = 4
# chns = sample(model, Prior(), 1000)
# chns = sample(model, MH(), 100_000)
# chns = sample(model, PG(5), 10_000)
# chns = sample(model, IS(), MCMCThreads(), 10_000, num_chns)
chns = sample(model, SMC(), 10_000)
# chns = sample(model, SMC(), MCMCThreads(), 10_000, num_chns)
# chns = sample(model, SGLD(), 10_000)

display(chns)
# display(plot(chns))

credible_interval(chns,"diff",0.9)
