On 15 November 2022, a missile struck the territory of Poland at the village of Przewodów near the border with Ukraine, killing two people. The incident occurred during an attack on Ukrainian cities and energy facilities by Russia. It was the first incident of a missile (vis-a-vis prior UAV incursions) fired from Ukrainian army landing and exploding within NATO territory during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Initially Ukraine accused Russia of striking Poland, while United States claimed that the missile was likely to have been an air defence missile fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile. This was later confirmed in September 2023 by the Polish Prosecutor's Office, which stated that the explosion was caused by an out of control air-defence missile S-300.

Background

The explosion happened on a day when the Russian military extensively bombarded infrastructure all over Ukraine, the largest-scale attack so far. According to the Ukrainian Air Force Command, the Russian military launched 96 pieces of various types of weapons at Ukraine on 15 November. These included air and sea cruise missiles (Kh-555 and Kh-101, and Kalibr), Kh-59 guided missiles, Geran-1 and -2 attack drones, and Orlan-10 and Orion UAVs. According to Forbes, one Kalibr alone costs $6.5 million, and the Kh-101 missile costs $13 million. The Economic Pravda or Epravda () calculated that Russia had spent between half a billion and a billion U.S. dollars worth of weaponry in the 15 November 2022 attack on Ukraine.

Explosion
Polish media reported that two people (Bogusław Wos and Bogdan Ciupek) were killed in an explosion at a grain dryer. Polish officials stated that the cause of the explosion was unknown. Polish radio station Radio ZET reported that two stray rockets fell on the village, causing the explosion, although later reports indicated that there was only one missile. NATO members started to review the evidence soon after the explosion was reported.

Investigation
After the meeting of the National Security Bureau on 15 November, the government spokesman said: "The services will work all night to sort things out".

Conflicting reports emerged regarding the origin and nature of the explosion(s) shortly after the incident. Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the projectile was "Russian-produced". Andrés Gannon, a security expert at the think tank Council on Foreign Relations, speculated that the missiles could be from S-300 systems. S-300s were used by both combatants during the invasion both as surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, primarily by Ukraine and Russia respectively. Mariusz Gierszewski, a Polish reporter for Radio ZET, reported sources claiming the missile was the remains of a downed rocket. U.S. president Joe Biden, speaking from the G20 summit in Bali, said that it was "unlikely" that the missile was fired from Russia.

According to US intelligence officials, initial assessments suggest that the missile was probably launched by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile.

On 17 November, Head of the Polish International Policy Bureau Jakub Kumoch gave a similar explanation that an air defence missile failed to shoot down the Russian target it sought to intercept; then "[t]he self-destruct system did not work, and this missile led to a tragedy."

Also on 17 November, Polish officials stated that Ukrainian investigators were likely to be granted access to the site of the explosion.

On 21 November, it was reported that Ukraine will not be granted access to the investigation by the Polish prosecutor's office.

On 26 September 2023, Rzeczpospolita reported that Ukrainian state did not cooperate in the investigation and did not provide any useful material to Poland. Polish Prosecutor's Office stated that the air-defence missile S-300 5-W-55, fired by the Ukrainian army, went out of control and hit Polish territory.

Reactions

Poland
After the explosion, Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki called an urgent meeting of a committee for national security and defence affairs. A government spokesperson said that Poland was raising the alert level of some of its military units after the conclusion of the meeting. He also stated that Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke to Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg regarding the possibility of activating Article 4 of the NATO charter.

Polish foreign minister Zbigniew Rau reportedly summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded "immediate detailed explanations".

Polish president Andrzej Duda stated late on 15 November local time that there was no evidence of who fired the missile.

International

Russia
The Russian defence ministry denied reports that Russian missiles had hit Poland, labeling it as "deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation".

The next day, it said that Russian strikes on Ukraine had been at least  away from the border with Poland, and that photos of the site published in Poland had been "identified by Russian defence industry specialists as elements of an anti-aircraft guided missile of the S-300 air defence system of the Ukrainian air force". Later that day, the Russian foreign ministry summoned the Polish ambassador.

Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russia for the incident in his nightly video address that day, saying that "Russian missiles hit Poland" and describing it as an infringement upon "collective security" and as a "significant escalation". Around the same time, foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba labeled the suggestion of the missile being fired by Ukrainian air defense as a "conspiracy theory" promoted by Russia.

The next day, Ukraine's presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak had tweeted that European countries should "close the sky" over Ukraine after the blast. Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, claimed that Ukraine had evidence of a "Russian trace" in the explosion, without giving any details. Zelenskyy also said that he had "no doubt that it was not our missile" and that Ukraine should be given access to the site of the explosion.

On 17 November, Zelenskyy said: "I don’t know what happened. We don’t know for sure. The world does not know. But I am sure that there was a Russian missile, I am sure that we fired from air defense systems".

NATO officials and member countries
Due to this incident, compounded with the closure of the Druzhba pipeline, the Hungarian government led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also called an emergency meeting with its Defence Council on the same night, and Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky had a telephone conversation with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Shortly after the alleged strike, the United States Department of Defense acknowledged reports that two Russian missiles struck a location inside Poland near its Ukrainian border, though it could not confirm them. Bob Menendez, Senate Foreign Relations Chair, expressed the hope that Russia would "apologize quickly for the loss of life and express that it wasn’t intentional", and warned of "all sorts of consequences", including the possibility of invoking Article 5, if the strike was intentional.

Poland requested a NATO meeting on Wednesday, 16 November, on the basis of Article 4. NATO diplomats said that the alliance would act cautiously and needed time to verify exactly how the incident happened.

Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Reinsalu responded to the reports by tweeting that Estonia was ready to defend "every inch" of NATO territory. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo responded to the reports by saying "We stand with Poland." Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala tweeted that if the strikes were confirmed to be an intentional act, "it would "be a further escalation by Russia." Romanian President Klaus Iohannis tweeted that Romania stands "in full solidarity with our friend and ally Poland" and that "we are in contact with our partners and allies".

Stoltenberg stated that Russia bears the blame, although the missile was most likely a Ukrainian air defense system or missile. After all "this would not have happened if Russia did not fire these missiles," he stated.

Others
 President of the European Council Charles Michel stated that he was "shocked" by the reports of the incident, adding that "we stand with Poland", which is a member of the European Union (EU).
 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of Moldova expressed solidarity with Poland after the explosions and said that it was in contact with the Polish authorities. Moldovan foreign minister Nicu Popescu sent to Zbigniew Rau, his Polish counterpart, condolences for the families of the victims. An event similar to the missile strike in Poland had occurred in the Moldovan village of Naslavcea earlier on 31 October, when as a result of another wave of Russian missiles against Ukraine, one of them was taken down by Ukrainian air defence systems and it crashed into the village, causing material damages but no casualties.

Related incidents
On 5 December, as Russia launched another wave of targeted missile strikes against Ukraine, a missile fell within the territory of Moldova, near the city of Briceni. Russian military expert Alexei Leonkov claimed that this and the incident at Przewodów were similar and that the missile in both cases originated from a S-300 missile system. A third missile would fall into the Moldovan village of Larga on 14 January 2023 and another for the fourth time in the same village on 16 February of the same year. On 25 September, a missile crashed into Chițcani, for the first time in Moldovan territory controlled by Transnistria.

In April 2023, a wreck of a Russian missile, likely a Kh-55 missile, was discovered in forests near Bydgoszcz in Poland.

See also

References

2022 in international relations
2022 controversies
November 2022 events in Poland
Explosions in 2022
Airstrikes during the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Explosions in Poland
Spillover of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Poland–Russia relations
Poland–Ukraine relations
Poland–NATO relations
Russia–NATO relations
Ukraine–NATO relations
Poland–Ukraine border
History of Lublin Voivodeship
Hrubieszów County
2022년 11월 15일, 하나 이상의 미사일이 우크라이나 국경 근처의 폴란드 Przewodów 마을을 공격했다. 이 사건은 러시아가 우크라이나 도시와 에너지 시설을 공격하는 동안 발생했다. 이는 2022년 러시아의 우크라이나 침공 동안 NATO 영토 내에서 (이전 UAV 침입에 대비하여) 미사일이 착륙하고 폭발한 첫 번째 사건이다. 미국의 초기 평가에 따르면 미사일은 들어오는 러시아 미사일을 향해 우크라이나군이 발사한 대공 미사일일 가능성이 높다.

S-300 
2022년 9월 21일, 러시아 군은 예비군 30만명 투입을 가능케 한 푸틴 대통령의 부분 군 동원령 발동 직후 우크라이나 북부 제2도시 하르키우의 소도시 잘루티노 마을의 아파트에 장거리 미사일을 발사했다. 지대공 미사일 방어시스템 S-300 미사일로 추정되는 공격으로 아파트 거주민 10명 이상이 부상을 당했다

2022년 10월 9일, 러시아군이 지대공 미사일인 S-300 12발을 우크리나 자포리자 일대의 공공시설에 투하해 우크라이나 측 사망자가 1명 발생했다. 러시아군이 크름대교 폭발에 대한 보복으로 우크라이나 남부 자포리자주(州) 주거지에 포격을 가해 지금까지 13명이 목숨을 잃고 수십 명이 다쳤다. 자포리자 지역 경찰청은 페이스북을 통해 러시아군의 야간 미사일 공격으로 현재까지 13명이 사망하고 60명 이상이 입원했다고 밝혔다. 러시아군은 밤 사이 자포리자 주거 지역에 S-300 16발과 Kh-22 순항미사일 6발을 발사했다. 미사일은 Tu-22M3 및 Su-35 전투기에서 발사됐다. 이로 인해 주택 수십 채와 아파트, 민간 기반 시설이 파괴됐다. 우크린포름은 9층 건물에 직접 미사일이 떨어져 1~7층이 구조물이 파괴됐고 붕괴된 부분을 해체하던 중 다른 2개 층도 무너졌다고 전했다. 또 옆에 위치한 5층 짜리 건물과 인근 주거용 건물도 정면이 뚫리고 유리창이 깨지는 등 파손됐다고 했다. 이 외에 주차돼 있던 차량들에 불이 붙었고 상점, 사무실, 유치원, 학교, 기타 기반 시설도 피해를 입었다고 덧붙였다.

이렇게 러시아가 S-300 지대공 미사일을 지대지 미사일로 사용하는 상황에서, 이번 사건이 발생했다.

폴란드에 미사일 2발이 떨어진 직후 러시아 소행 가능성이 제기됐던 가장 큰 이유는 구소련 주력 무기였던 대공시스템 S-300 미사일 파편이 발견됐기 때문이다. 하지만 우크라이나 또한 S-300 미사일을 다량으로 보유하고 있고, 실제 러시아군 미사일 폭격에 대응하기 위해 적극적으로 활용하고 있다.

2022년 11월 16일, 안제이 두다 폴란드 대통령은 기자회견에서 “예비조사 결과 구소련 시대 탄약인 S-300이 발사된 것으로 보인다”고 발표했다. 즈비그니에프 지오브로 폴란드 법무장관도 “S-300 잔해가 프셰보두프에서 발견됐는데, 이는 러시아와 우크라이나군이 모두 사용하는 무기”라며 “발사 주체를 확인하는 데 시간이 걸린 이유”라고 설명했다.

미국, 나토는 이 미사일이 우크라이나군의 S-300 미사일의 오발탄이라고 주장했다. 그러나, 우크라이나는 러시아군의 S-300 미사일 공격이라고 주장했다.

볼로디미르 젤렌스키 우크라이나 대통령이 폴란드 동부 우크라이나 국경 지대에 떨어진 미사일이 오폭된 우크라이나의 방공 미사일이라는 북대서양조약기구(NATO·나토)의 잠정 결론을 정면으로 부인했다.

집단방위 

이번 사건으로, 나토가 자랑하는 '집단방위' 조항이 실제로 발동되기에는 현실적 제약이 크다는 점이 입증되었다.

폴란드 언론은 실제로 폴란드가 러시아에 공격당하면 나토가 어떤 보호를 제공할 수 있는지 의문을 제기하고 나섰다. 나토의 '집단방위조항'인 헌장 5조가 실제 발동되기에는 제한이 크다는 게 증명됐기 때문이다. 5조는 회원국이 '무력 공격'을 받으면 전체 회원국에 대한 공격으로 간주한다는 내용으로, 강력한 억지력을 가진다. 하지만 공격 국가와 나토 동맹 전체가 전면전으로 넘어간다는 의미이기에 부담이 크다. 이번엔 5조 이전 단계인 '상호협의' 규정 4조도 결국 발동되지 않았다.

3차대전 
나토는 동맹국 1곳이 외세의 공격을 받으면 전체가 공격을 받은 것으로 간주하고 대응하는 집단방위체제를 유지한다.

바이든 대통령은 군사개입으로 나토와 러시아의 직접 충돌이 발생하면 3차 세계대전으로 이어진다며 경계해왔다.

미국은 우크라이나 전쟁에 직접 개입하지 않으면서도 나토 회원국이 공격을 받을 땐 강력 대응할 것이라고 거듭 강조해왔다.

과거 역사 
폴란드는 소련에 의해 카틴 숲 학살을 당한 역사가 있다.

1939년 8월 히틀러의 나치독일과 스탈린의 소련이 폴란드 분할을 내용으로 하는 비밀 협정인 독소불가침조약을 체결한다. 이후 9월 1일에는 독일이, 9월 17일에는 소련이 폴란드를 침공하여 두 나라가 분할점령한 끝에 다시 폴란드는 지도에서 사라진다. 소련은 점령 직후 폴란드군 장교 2만2000여명을 학살하는 이른바 '카틴학살'이라는 만행을 저질렀다. 이에 분개한 폴란드 국민들은 2차대전 중 연합국 편에서 투쟁하며 무려 600만명이 사망하는 엄청난 희생을 치렀다.

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