Derek Morgan:  Hey , Reid , you got a statistic on arsonists ?
Dr. Spencer Reid: 82% are white males between _ 17 _ and 27 . Female arsonists are far less likely , their motive typically being revenge .
Derek Morgan: Sounds like our boy 's a student .
Jason Gideon: Oh , do n't be so sure . You rely too much on precedent , you never allow for the unexpected .