Dr. Spencer Reid:  Long - term stranger abductions of children Billie 's age are rare . They represent only half of one percent of all missing cases per year . But they are usually more likely to be fatal . Of the children that are abducted and murdered , 44% die within the first hour . From that point forth , their odds of survival greatly decrease . 75% are gone after three hours . Virtually all of them are dead after _ twenty _ - four .
Aaron Hotchner: Which means we have just under four hours to find her .