As more is learned about the development of cervical cancer, the value of annual Pap smear screening for all women is being questioned. This study was conducted to investigate whether women at higher risk for the development of cervical cancer could be identified by testing for the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) in the cervical smear. These women could be followed annually, and the interval between screening Pap smears for women at lower risk could be increased. Study participants were women enrolled in the Kaiser Permanente healthcare plan in Portland, Oregon, who underwent annual Pap smear screening between April 1989, and November 1990. More than 20,000 women (20,810 of 23,702) had satisfactory cervical smears with sufficient samples for HPV testing, which was conducted using a polymerase chain reaction-based method with MYO9/11 primers. Most women (83.6%) had at least one follow-up smear during the study period; however, women with atypical squamous cells (ASC) or worse had more smears than women with normal results (mean, 4.4 vs. 3.3). Follow-up was conducted more or less annually for a total period of 122 months. HPV results were not used in deciding patient management. Ninety-six percent of the 20,810 baseline Pap smears were diagnosed as negative (N = 20,156). Thirteen percent of these patients tested positive for HPV. The baseline smears of 654 of the 20,810 women (3.1%) were classified as ASC or worse. Of these 654 smears, 417 (63.8%) were positive for HPV. One hundred seventy-eight women had a cytologic diagnosis of a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or worse; of these, 143 (80.3%) tested positive for HPV. During the 10 years of follow-up, 171 patients developed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3 or cervical cancer. The baseline smear was normal in 112 of these women and ASC or worse in 59 (34.5%). Only half (49.2%) of the 58 patients diagnosed within the first 45 months of follow-up had an abnormal baseline smear. During this first 45 months, 7.85% of the women whose initial Pap test was at least ASC were diagnosed with CIN 3 or cancer. The cumulative incidence at 10 years of follow-up was 10.2%. Sixty of the 171 women with CIN 3 or cervical cancer had a negative baseline HPV test. Of the 118 women who were diagnosed during the first 45 months of follow-up, 89 (79.4%) were HPV positive initially. The cumulative incidence of CIN 3 or cancer among the group with a positive baseline HPV test was 6.92% over 10 years but only 1.73% at 45 months. The risk of developing CIN 3 or cancer remained elevated throughout the study in those women with a positive baseline HPV test. The predictive ability of the baseline Pap smear diminished as the follow-up interval increased. Fifteen percent of the patients (N = 3216) had a positive Pap smear, a positive HPV test, or both at the initial examination. One hundred twenty-three (71.9%) were among the 171 women who developed CIN 3 or cancer. Eighty-six percent (102 of 123) of the patients who were diagnosed within the first 45 months were positive with at least one of the screening studies. The cumulative incidence over 45 months for women who had positive HPV testing and/or abnormal Pap smear results was 4.54%. Women with negative results in both screening tests had a cumulative risk of 0.16% for the same period. At 10 years the cumulative risk incidence for these two groups was 6.83% and 0.79%, respectively, yielding a negative predictive value of 99.1% for combined testing.
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