Extinction threshold
Extinction threshold is a term used in conservation biology to explain the point at which a species, population or metapopulation, experiences an abrupt change in density or number because of an important parameter, such as habitat loss. It is at this critical value below which a species, population, or metapopulation, will go extinct, though this may take a long time for species just below the critical value, a phenomenon known as extinction debt. Extinction thresholds are important to conservation biologists when studying a species in a population or metapopulation context because the colonization rate must be larger than the extinction rate, otherwise the entire entity will go extinct once it reaches the threshold. Extinction thresholds are realized under a number of circumstances and the point in modeling them is to define the conditions that lead a population to extinction. Modeling extinction thresholds can explain the relationship between extinction threshold and habitat loss and habitat fragmentation. Mathematical models Metapopulation-type models are used to predict extinction thresholds. The classic metapopulation model is the Levins Model, which is the model of metapopulation dynamics established by Richard Levins in the 1960s. It was used to evaluate patch occupancy in a large network of patches.