sample/Ethiopia_s_2021_10 Year Development Plan.txt

Ethiopia 2030: The Pathway to Prosperity
Ten Years Perspective Development Plan (2021 � 2030)
1. Baselines and Assumptions
2. Strategic pillars
3. Departures
4. Macroeconomic goals
5. Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and necessary mitigation measures
6. Potentials/capabilities
7. Focus areas
7.1. Productive sectors
7.2. Services sector
7.3. Enabling sectors
8. Balanced and competitive development (nationally, regionally and locally)
9. Monitoring and Evaluation
Content
1. Baselines and Assumptions
Poverty Reduction (%)
Key performances of previous years
45.5 44.2
38.7
29.6
23.5
19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1994 2000 2005 2011 2016 2020
Percent
Year
Proportion of people living below poverty line
10.5
8.8
10.1
7.7
9
5.19-6.20
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
GTP I: 2011-2015
GTP II: 2015/16
GTP II: 2016/17
GTP II: 2017/18
GTP II: 2018/19
GTP II: 2019/20 (projection, with
COVID-19)
GDP growth rate (%)
1. Baselines and Assumptions
Share of economic sectors in GDP (%) Merchandise export as % of GDP
8.66
7.33
6.57
5.93
4.91
3.86 3.56 3.37
2.77
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Percent
Year
46.9
45
43.5
41.4
39.5
37.1 35.9
34.5
32.8
13.4
15
17.3
18.8
21
23.5
25.7 26.9 27.8
4.7 4.8 5 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.9 6.8 6.8
7.1
8.6
10.7 12
14.2
16.2
17.8 19.1 20.1
39.8 40.1 39.2 39.8 39.4 38.4 38.6 39.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Percent
Agriculture Industry Manufacturing Construction Services
1. Baselines and Assumptions
Labour force participation (2013)
73%
7%
20%
Agriculture
Industry
Services
7%
22%
71%
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Urban labour force participation (2013)
1. Baselines and Assumptions
High and increasing Unemployment Rate
� Urban unemployment rate = 19.1% in 2018
� Youth unemployment rate = 25.3 %
? Male = 18.6%
? Female 30.9 %
� Rural unemployment rate = 2% in 2013
� Declining per capita rural land creating
disguised unemployment
402,869
471,535
Male Female Total Male Female Total
2014 2018
15-19 yr. 20-24 yr. 25-29 yr. Linear (20-24 yr.)
Number of unemployed people in urban areas
1. Baselines and Assumptions
Challenges
1. Macroeconomic imbalances
?Sustained high inflation
?High and rising unemployment especially
in urban areas
?High and rising debt burden
?Chronic foreign currency shortage
?Sluggish (though encouraging) rate of
structural change
2. Vulnerability to shocks (COVID-19, Climate
changes, Desert Locust infestation, etc)
3. Poor quality and high inequity in
infrastructure projects
4. Poor quality services in health and
education
� High repetition and dropout rates from school
1. Baselines and Assumptions
� Poor quality of growth and slow
structural change
� Excessive aid and loan
dependence for financing
infrastructural and construction
investments
� Limited success in expanding
manufacturing and modern
agriculture which have high job
creation potentials
� Weak institutional capacity as
the main culprit of all failures
? Provision of quality services
(electricity, water, telephone,
internet)
? Creation of enough jobs and
improved living standards
? Generation of reliable foreign
exchange revenue and debtsustainable
national economic
capacity
? Completion of development
projects and investment plans
under public-private
partnerships
� Low reward for merit, productivity and effort
while low disincentive for laziness, wastefulness
and corruption
� Slow institutional change and transformation in:
? Government policies
? Investor attitude
? Youth behaviour
? Role of the intellectuals
� The need for sustained increase in production
and productivity
� The need to set a common national vision to
achieve major successes with consensus and
popular legitimacy
Major areas of failure in the economy
1. Baselines and Assumptions
� Poor quality of growth and slow
structural change
� Excessive aid and loan
dependence for financing
infrastructural and construction
investments
� Limited success in expanding
manufacturing and modern
agriculture which have high job
creation potentials
� Weak institutional capacity as
the main culprit of all failures
? Provision of quality services
(electricity, water, telephone,
internet)
? Creation of enough jobs and
improved living standards
? Generation of reliable foreign
exchange revenue and debtsustainable
national economic
capacity
? Completion of development
projects and investment plans
under public-private
partnerships
� Low reward for merit, productivity and effort
while low disincentive for laziness, wastefulness
and corruption
� Slow institutional change and transformation in:
? Government policies
? Investor attitude
? Youth behaviour
? Role of the intellectuals
� The need for sustained increase in production
and productivity
� The need to set a common national vision to
achieve major successes with consensus and
popular legitimacy
Major areas of failure in the economy
2. Departures
1. Emphasis on quality of economic growth
2. Participation and coordination of sectors in the planning process
3. Sectoral linkages and multi-sectoral development focus
4. Preparation of national development corridors based on development potentials
5. Focus on solving institutional bottlenecks
6. The ongoing home grown economic reform programme as a sprinting board
7. Emphasis on resilience building, innovation and entrepreneurship
3. Strategic pillars
1. Ensure quality growth
2. Improve productivity and competitiveness
3. Undertake institutional transformation
4. Ensure private sector's leadership in the economy
5. Ensure equitable participation of women and children
6. Build climate resilient green economy
3. Strategic pillars
� Increasing export revenues and substituting imports by
reducing production costs
� Availing quality and massive infrastructure
? Linking infrastructural development with development corridors
� Producing required human resources with quality
� Producing enough and quality human resources
� Prioritizing innovative production systems
� Linking incentives with export revenue and job creation
performances
� Modernizing and enhancing the logistic system
� Creating technological competences needed for longterm
growth
� The economic growth should ensure:
? Participation of all citizens and equitable utilization of the
growth proceeds
? Improved standard of living of every citizen
? Reduced poverty in all indicators
? Reduced inflation and unemployment
� The economic growth should lead to increased
aggregate supply
� Focus on modern agriculture, manufacturing and
mining
� Emphasis on exploiting the sources of growth through
structural change
1.Ensuring quality economic growth 2. Raising production and productivity
3. Strategic pillars
� Build democratic and judicial institutions that ensure elite bargain,
national consensus, common vision and government legitimacy
� Build private sector and competition friendly bureaucracy
� Coordinate with parents, the society and teachers to make
educational institutions centers of excellence and virtuous citizens
� Coordinate with parents as well as social and religious leaders to
encourage religious institutions and their teachings contribute
towards poverty reduction efforts
� Prepare policies, strategies and legal frameworks for achieving
prosperity
� Increased focus on innovation and research
� Creating strong social security system
3. Institutional Transformation 4. Private sector's leadership in the economy
� Create conducive investment climate and incentivize
domestic investors in key sectors
� Build strong and market-led public-private partnerships in
order to ensure the establishment of inclusive and
pragmatic market economy
� Enhance access and quality of infrastructure to attract
quality foreign direct investment
� Identify new sources of growth, empower and stimulate
the private sector, and supplement the private sector in
strategic areas
� Emphasis for public-private partnership on problem
solving innovations and research activities
3. Strategic pillars
� Ensure gender equity in economic and social
sectors
? Participation of women at all levels of education
? Asset ownership of women
� Ensure fair participation of women and youth in
leadership and decision making positions
� Create awareness among citizens about the role of
women and youth in the country�s overall
development
� Increase basin development efforts to fight land
degradation and to reduce pollutions
� Improve productivity and reduce GHG emissions
� Increase forest protection and development
� Increase production of electricity from renewable
sources for domestic use and for export
� Focus on modern and energy saving technologies
5. Equitable participation of women and children 6. Climate resilient green economy
4. Macroeconomic Goals
Assumptions
? Requirement to significantly reduce
poverty
? Available national potentials
? Potential for investment in the economy
? Existing potentials in each sector
? Low productivity that needs to be
improved
� Make Ethiopia a middle income
economy by 2022
� Raise per capita income to USD 1,115
in 2022
? Threshold for middle-income is USD 1,026
? Plus human development index and
economic vulnerability index
� Raise per capita income to USD 2,220
by 2030
Sectoral growth Targets (2021-2030)
Assured middle- income potential
10.2%
Average
Growth
Target
Percentage of population below poverty line
4. Macroeconomic Goals
Structural change
Financing Gaps
Reduce urban unemployment to less than 9%
?1.36 million new jobs need to be
created per annum
Sectoral composition of GDP Labour force participation
Economic
Sectors
Performance Target
2011 2015 2018/19 2030
Agriculture 45 39.7 32.8 22.0
Industry 15.1 21.2 27.6 35.9
Manufacturing 4.7 5.5 6.8 17.2
Services 39.9 39 39.4 42.1
5. Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and necessary mitigation measures
� GDP growth for 2019/20 fiscal year is projected to be lower than its target of 9.0% by between 2.81
and 3.80 percentage points (equivalent to 58.3 - 78.8 billion birr) due to COVID-19 pandemic
� If the current scenario continues, next year�s GDP growth could decline by 2.8 percentage points
� Returning the economy to its high growth trajectory requires focusing on sectors with high
productivity and job creation potentials
� Public investment should focus on empowering the private sector
� Promoting both domestic and foreign investments with the right set of incentives (merit based)
� Modernizing production systems and improving uptake of technology
� Conducting demand analysis for export commodities to remedy for the declining trend in exports
and foreign exchange earnings.
6. Potentials
� Endowment of various natural resources contributing to the growth potential
� Huge unutilized arable land creates great potential for the success of the plan
� Endowment of gemstones, ornamental, energy, metals, and metallic minerals
� Gold, coal, iron ore, potash, tantalum, marble, petroleum and other natural resources
Natural
Resources
� Large youth population and potential for demographic dividend
� Cumulative capacity in education and health
� Positive attitude and noble culture of reaching agreement among citizens
Human
capital
6. Potentials
Built physical and material capitals
?Transport and communication
? Irrigation infrastructures for modern agriculture
?Industrial Parks
?Mega energy infrastructures
Physical
capital
Unexploited
growth
potentials
� Utilizing the tourism potential through modernization
� Using the mining subsector as a source of input as well as a competitive industry in its
own right
6. Potentials
� Solving supply side bottlenecks to satisfy the existing demand
� Improving international acceptance and reliable partnerships
? The �medemer�/synergy philosophy
? The ongoing political reform measures
? The Homegrown Economic Reform programme
� Increased finance from partners and multilateral institutions
? Increased availability of foreign exchange
? Reduced debt stress for the short to medium term
? Increased potential for development
Increased
demand as
potential
Political Capital
Continental
and regional
integrations
� Regional and continental economic integration agreements
� International and continental free trade agreements
6. Potentials
Low
technology as
a potential
� Undeniably low status of technological development
� International mobility and spillover effect of technology
� Potential for development and catching up by filling the technological gaps
� Doubling crop productivity from the current 24-36 quintals per hectare will result
in 7% increase in crop production
� Raise the production efficiency of manufacturing from the current 50% to 80%
7. Focus Areas
7.1. Productive sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, mining
7.2. Service sector: tourism
7.3. Enabling sectors: energy, transport, sustainable finance,
innovation and technology, urban development, irrigation,
human capital development
7.1. Productive sectors
Agriculture Objectives
1. Free agriculture from rain dependence
2. Agricultural mechanization services
3. Contract farming, cluster approach and
land consolidation
4. Livestock, animal feed and animal health
5. Horticulture (irrigation and urban farming)
6. Private sector participation
7. Institutional implementation capacity
8. Climate resilient sustainable agricultural
development
1. Improve income and livelihood options for farming and pastoral
communities through increased productivity and competitiveness
2. Modernize agriculture and ensure national food and nutrition security
3. Raise export of agricultural output and substitute imports
4. Make agriculture a viable and profitable enterprise through value addition
5. Create rural employment opportunities
6. Enhance livestock health access and quality
7. Preserve animal genetic resources and increase pastoral research
8. Improve the development of animal feed and access to markets
9. Develop livestock specific extension package for each livestock type
Focus Areas
7.1. Productive sector
Manufacturing Industry
Objectives
1. Production of quality and competitive food, textile, housing and
pharmaceutical products for export and domestic markets
2. Production and productivity of existing manufacturing industries
3. Utilization of locally available inputs
4. Value chains, linkages and interdependencies
5. Linkages between large scale metallurgical and engineering,
chemical and pharmaceutical industries with other industries
6. Job creation, cluster approaches and expanding small and medium
scale manufacturing
7. Private sector participation and partnership
1. Establish basis for domestic industrialization
2. Value addition through enhanced inter-sectoral
linkages
3. Enhance productivity through private sector
leadership and supportive role of the
government
? Create job opportunities for the youth leaving
agriculture and concentrating in urban areas
? Make exportable commodities internationally
competitive
? Ensure structural change
Focus areas
7.1. Productive sectors
Mining
Objectives
� Foreign exchange earning and
domestic revenues
� Increased investment in mining
� Participation of manufacturing
industries that add value
� Job creation
� Add value for improved contribution of the subsector
� Increase inter-sectoral linkages to raise raw material inputs to other
sectors
� Make mining a competent subsector and induce structural change
� Increase human resource and technological capabilities through
research and trainings
� Raise foreign exchange revenue from mining through increased
exploration and production
� Improve traditional mining production and marketing systems
� Improve the country�s geological information
Focus areas
7.2. Service sector
Tourism
Objectives
� Identification and developing destinations
� Infrastructure
� Competitiveness
?improve existing destinations
?develop new destinations
? diversify service and raise quality
� Market linkages, branding, and promotion
� Technology, research and development
� Preservation, maintenance and proper
utilization of heritage resources
� Expand job opportunities
� Raise incomes
� Build information management
systems
� Increase implementation capacity
Focus areas
7.3. Enabling sectors
Urban development
Objectives
? Prioritize productive sectors in job creation and enterprise
development plans
? Rapid development and equity goals in land provision system
? Participation of indigenous people in land redevelopment and
expansion
? Urban land registration and cadaster system, modern
property valuation
? Greenery and public spaces as well as waste disposal and
management in urban planning and implementation
? Housing development and financing options to reduce
housing shortages
? Integrated infrastructure and services provision
? Role of private sector in infrastructure development and
service provision
� Expand micro and small-scale
enterprises to reduce urban
unemployment
� Develop and avail urban land based on
demand, equity and cost effectiveness
� Make quality housing accessible both in
rural and urban areas
� Develop quality and integrated
infrastructure as well as service
provision in towns
� Improve financial management and
resource utilization in urban areas
Focus areas
7.3. Enabling sectors
Innovation and Technology
Objectives
? Access to innovation and
technological information
? Developing a digital economy
? Productivity enhancement and
competitiveness
? Build a digital economy
? Develop national scientific research and technological
capabilities
? Support problem solving research and development of
technologies necessary for raising production,
productivity and service provision
? Create jobs and capital that are based on technology
? Develop technological and data security protection
systems
Focus areas
7.3. Enabling sectors
Sustainable finance
Objectives
� Access to modern finance and saving culture in rural
areas
� Support to the private sector and corporations to
reinvest profits in productive sectors
� Role of private financial institutions in manufacturing
and agriculture
� Digital revenue collection system
� Tax equity (contraband, tax evasion, and bringing the
underground economy to the tax system)
� Domestic and foreign strategic partnerships
� Transform financing from short term to long-term,
sustainable and quality sources
� Ensure financing quality based on sectoral prioritization
and reduction of wastage
� Increase the number of domestic saving institutions both
in rural and urban areas
� Support domestic finance with foreign exchange capacity
and foreign direct investment
� Modernize domestic revenue collection system
� Raise voluntary tax payment attitude
� Bring the informal sector to the formal tax system
Focus areas
7.3. Enabling sectors
Transport
Objectives
� Access to infrastructure
� Implementation capacity
� Participation of the private sector and the general
public
� Financing capacity
� Ensure equitable access to transport infrastructure and
services
� Improve transport safety
� Make logistics services fast and reliable
� Build transport infrastructure and service that is
resilient to climate change
Focus areas
7.3. Enabling sectors
Energy
Objectives
? Equity in access to electricity services
? Energy access and quality
? Alternative sources of energy
? Reliability of electricity infrastructure
? Investment and income in energy subsector
� Ensure equitable access to transport
infrastructure and services
� Improve transport safety
� Make logistics services fast and reliable
� Build transport infrastructure and service that is
resilient to climate change
Focus areas
7.3. Enabling sectors
Irrigation
Objectives
? Medium and large scale irrigation infrastructure
? Job creation
? Share of government expenditure and alternative
financing options
? Institutional capacity and human resource
development
? Improve agricultural output and productivity
? Reduce government spending and enhance
institutional capacity and human resources
development
? Ensure the inclusion of all genders and
disabled citizens
? Develop alternative financing options for
irrigation development
Focus areas
7.3. Enabling sectors
Human capital development
Objectives
� Make education and training inclusive and equitable by
harmonizing the system with ability, need and capacity
� Develop capacity of educational institutions (teacher capacity,
inputs and technology)
� Establish education and training quality assurance system
� Avail free and compulsory education for pre-primary to junior
secondary levels and free education at the senior secondary levels
equitably
� Ensure the relevance of education and training system and
synchronize education policy with economic and social
development needs
� Make the education and training policy compatible with the
nation�s contemporary capacities as well as global and regional
market opportunities
� Enhance commitment, capability and responsibility of citizens
? Ensure equitable and quality health services
? Raise average life expectancy
? Achieve universal health coverage through
proactive and prevention health system
? Curtail preventable maternal and child deaths
? Reduce incidences of contagious and noncontagious
related diseases and deaths
? Build capacity for health tourism through
increased treatment capabilities
? Create a healthy society that is free from
addictions and use technology for supporting
knowledge led economic development
Focus areas
8 Nationally, regionally and locally balanced and competitive development
1. Lack of synchronization of investment with
resource potentials and development needs
2. Poor alignment of federal, regional and
district level investment plans with the
national development goals and envisioned
settlement patterns
3. Poor regional coordination due to low
consideration for trans-regional and
spatial issues in development plans of
regional states
4. Inter-regional and intra-regional
disparities in infrastructural development
and access to services
Challenges
8. Nationally, regionally and locally balanced and competitive development
1. Ensure that the investment flow and
infrastructural development plans fairly go hand in
hand with resource potential and development
needs
?Developing underutilized natural resources
?Equitable distribution and access to
infrastructure
?Sustainable environmental protection
2. Ensure the inclusion of pastoral and agro-pastoral
areas in the development
?Focused infrastructural development in pastoral
areas such as education and health sector input
provision as well as governance
?Market linkages with other areas and the central
markets
?Improve rural finance (credit and insurance) to
encourage fattening, milk processing, leather
production and irrigation agriculture
Focus areas
9. Monitoring and Evaluation
10 Years Perspective
Plan KPIs
Federal Implementing
Institutions
Planning and
Development Commission
Generate Data (Census,
Sample and administrative
data)
Annual Reports
Dialogue forums
(Civic Organizations, professional
associations, development partners,
intellectuals)
Central Statistical Agency
Database
National
Information Portal
National Statistics
Development Strategic
plan
Evaluation Reports
Prime Minister�s Office
House of People�s
Representatives
Thank you!