user32294: I've completed an empirical analysis of blockchain forks from block #300000 thru #400000. I found the following: (a) blockchain forks of length 1: observed every 380 blocks on average; (b) blockchain forks of length 2: none observed.
I recognize there is variation inherent in any such analysis, as different full nodes may produce different results.
Does the above data "ring true"? I am keen to hear from anyone with good data (or even good intuition) and especially eager to hear from anyone with different numbers.

user32294: Christian--
Thank you for the answer AND the link to your paper. This is exactly the type of information I was hoping for, but was unable to find myself.
To confirm I understand, allow me to use a recent blockchain branch at block height 406197. Here is the output from getchaintips from my full node:
    "height": 406197,
    "hash": "0000000000000000033f1b617ad5c03cec10a6bcc19ce0778e8d75fdbf1ed152",
    "branchlen": 1,
    "status": "valid-fork"
And is my representation of the blockchain branch:

The main chain resolved in favor of what I will call block #406197-b5ab. With that data, I have a few clarifying questions:
[a] If full nodes only propagate blocks that agree with their "worldview" of the blockchain, does that mean there were sufficient full nodes that accepted block #406197-d152 (eventually orphaned) to relay that block to my full node?
[b] Does the information imply that my full node INITIALLY accepted block #406196-d152 and THEN received block #306197-b5ab? Or vice versa?
My networking knowledge is sound, my queuing theory knowledge is only modest. I am hoping to develop an accurate mental model of a blockchain branch using this particular branch as an example.
Thank you for the time & help!
Pressed250.

user120: Blockchain forks are an artifact from the network propagation and appear at random intervals (and far more often than what you observed). It is important to note that since nodes do not forward information that contradicts their view of the network, i.e., they have accepted one of the forks, you will not be able to observe all forks in the network, but only those that are propagated to you through the network.
For details on what causes blockchain forks and their impact on the security/performance of the network see Information Propagation in the Bitcoin Network (disclaimer: I am one of the authors).

32294: <p>I've completed an empirical analysis of blockchain forks from block #300000 thru #400000. I found the following: (a) blockchain forks of length 1: observed every 380 blocks on average; (b) blockchain forks of length 2: none observed.</p>

<p>I recognize there is variation inherent in any such analysis, as different full nodes may produce different results.</p>

<p>Does the above data "ring true"? I am keen to hear from anyone with good data (or even good intuition) and especially eager to hear from anyone with different numbers.</p>
 32294: <p>Christian--</p>

<p>Thank you for the answer AND the link to your paper. This is exactly the type of information I was hoping for, but was unable to find myself.</p>

<p>To confirm I understand, allow me to use a recent blockchain branch at block height 406197. Here is the output from getchaintips from my full node:
    "height": 406197,
    "hash": "0000000000000000033f1b617ad5c03cec10a6bcc19ce0778e8d75fdbf1ed152",
    "branchlen": 1,
    "status": "valid-fork"</p>

<p>And is my representation of the blockchain branch:
<a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/VCMIt.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/VCMIt.png" alt="Blockchain Branch"></a></p>

<p>The main chain resolved in favor of what I will call block #406197-b5ab. With that data, I have a few clarifying questions:</p>

<p>[a] If full nodes only propagate blocks that agree with their "worldview" of the blockchain, does that mean there were sufficient full nodes that accepted block #406197-d152 (eventually orphaned) to relay that block to my full node?</p>

<p>[b] Does the information imply that my full node INITIALLY accepted block #406196-d152 and THEN received block #306197-b5ab? Or vice versa?</p>

<p>My networking knowledge is sound, my queuing theory knowledge is only modest. I am hoping to develop an accurate mental model of a blockchain branch using this particular branch as an example.</p>

<p>Thank you for the time &amp; help!
Pressed250.</p>
 120: <p>Blockchain forks are an artifact from the network propagation and appear at random intervals (and far more often than what you observed). It is important to note that since nodes do not forward information that contradicts their view of the network, i.e., they have accepted one of the forks, you will not be able to observe all forks in the network, but only those that are propagated to you through the network.</p>

<p>For details on what causes blockchain forks and their impact on the security/performance of the network see <a href="http://www.tik.ee.ethz.ch/file/49318d3f56c1d525aabf7fda78b23fc0/P2P2013_041.pdf" rel="nofollow">Information Propagation in the Bitcoin Network</a> (disclaimer: I am one of the authors).</p>
