user48102: I know that a block usually takes 10 minutes on average to get confirmed. But what is the probability that this will happen?
I mean is there any formula that we can use to calculate the probability that a block will be confirmed in the bitcoin network within x minutes? (assuming that the resources are fixed in the whole network)

user5757: The time T until a block is mined follows an exponential distribution.  Assuming the difficulty has properly calibrated to the network hash rate, the rate parameter for T will be λ = 1/10 per minute.  So the probability that the block is mined within t minutes is 
P(T <= t) = 1 - exp(-t/10).

48102: <p>I know that a block usually takes 10 minutes on average to get confirmed. But what is the probability that this will happen?</p>

<p>I mean is there any formula that we can use to calculate the probability that a block will be confirmed in the bitcoin network within x minutes? (assuming that the resources are fixed in the whole network)</p>
 5757: <p>The time T until a block is mined follows an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution" rel="nofollow noreferrer">exponential distribution</a>.  Assuming the difficulty has properly calibrated to the network hash rate, the rate parameter for T will be λ = 1/10 per minute.  So the probability that the block is mined within t minutes is 
<code>P(T &lt;= t) = 1 - exp(-t/10)</code>.</p>
