user10216: I am seriously considering making an investment and buying a 3TH miner. The problem is whether they will still be profitable by the time they arrive...
At today's has rate calculation of 707,408,283 it is expected to return 2.1328 BTC in a 24hr period.
The question is how realistic is this and does anyone own a miner that can confirm whether this profit forcast is achievable?
http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

user10285: I thought about it. But the experience with butterfly labs was enough. It looks to risky for me, kncminer are like 12000$ right? you can get 12-13 BTC and with that you can buy immediately 170-185 GH/s on cexio. On Cexio you can buy and sell GH/s for bitcoins so the risk of the investment is not as big as buying hardware, plus you get that GH/s working now not in a few months

user10263: The hard part about pre-ordering next generation hardware is to predict a logical expectation of  A) what will be the total network power (hashrate) be by the time your miner comes online which influences directly B) what will be the difficulty value at that time.
If you assume linear growth in the network vs exponential for example you will arrive at different conclusions. That is the real hard part. 
At todays difficulty (now 908,350,862) a 2 THps miner at $1000/btc can expect to break-even in 5-6 days. 
If looking backwards is any indication, the difficulty has increased by 945% in the past 90 days so if that is the same as the next 90 days and BTC values are fixed at $1000/btc you can expect to break even in 47 days.
IF you think that the next 90 days will grow faster (say 1.5x as fast) as the previous 90 days then you can expect a breakeven in 75 days.
What if your miner comes in 4 months from now instead of 3? What if a whole lot of people are buying one so that when they all come on line simultaneously the difficulty will spike beyond your projections?
And what if the price of BTC falls again from where it is now and stays lower?
A lot of what-ifs but you must know your variables before investing in mining capital.

10216: <p>I am seriously considering making an investment and buying a 3TH miner. The problem is whether they will still be profitable by the time they arrive...</p>

<p>At today's has rate calculation of 707,408,283 it is expected to return 2.1328 BTC in a 24hr period.</p>

<p>The question is how realistic is this and does anyone own a miner that can confirm whether this profit forcast is achievable?</p>

<p><a href="http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/" rel="nofollow">http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/</a></p>
 10285: <p>I thought about it. But the experience with butterfly labs was enough. It looks to risky for me, kncminer are like 12000$ right? you can get 12-13 BTC and with that you can buy immediately 170-185 GH/s on <a href="https://cex.io/" rel="nofollow">cexio</a>. On Cexio you can buy and sell GH/s for bitcoins so the risk of the investment is not as big as buying hardware, plus you get that GH/s working now not in a few months</p>
 10263: <p>The hard part about pre-ordering next generation hardware is to predict a logical expectation of  A) what will be the total network power (hashrate) be by the time your miner comes online which influences directly B) what will be the difficulty value at that time.</p>

<p>If you assume linear growth in the network vs exponential for example you will arrive at different conclusions. That is the real hard part. </p>

<p>At todays difficulty (now 908,350,862) a 2 THps miner at $1000/btc can expect to break-even in 5-6 days. </p>

<p>If looking backwards is any indication, the difficulty has increased by 945% in the past 90 days so if that is the same as the next 90 days and BTC values are fixed at $1000/btc you can expect to break even in 47 days.</p>

<p>IF you think that the next 90 days will grow faster (say 1.5x as fast) as the previous 90 days then you can expect a breakeven in 75 days.</p>

<p>What if your miner comes in 4 months from now instead of 3? What if a whole lot of people are buying one so that when they all come on line simultaneously the difficulty will spike beyond your projections?</p>

<p>And what if the price of BTC falls again from where it is now and stays lower?</p>

<p>A lot of what-ifs but you must know your variables before investing in mining capital.</p>
