user61488: I need to analyse unconfirmed transactions and I'm interested in knowing what is the probability for a given unconfirmed transactions to be confirmed.
Depending on the model, I see two solutions:

checking for a relatively long period of time how many transactions had been submitted and checking how many had been confirmed.
searching pattern behavior in the structure of a transaction that will lead to a rejection.


user51948: For a transaction to be included in a block, the probability is related to the fee that transaction pays to the miner (higher fee = more likely) and varies over time based on demand of block space (more congested = higher fee needed). It's also unpredictable because miners can choose whatever transactions they want to, doesn't always have to be the x highest fees. 
Here's some stats on current fee vs confirmation time estimations: https://bitcoinfees.21.co

61488: <p>I need to analyse unconfirmed transactions and I'm interested in knowing what is the probability for a given unconfirmed transactions to be confirmed.</p>

<p>Depending on the model, I see two solutions:</p>

<ul>
<li>checking for a relatively long period of time how many transactions had been submitted and checking how many had been confirmed.</li>
<li>searching pattern behavior in the structure of a transaction that will lead to a rejection.</li>
</ul>
 51948: <p>For a transaction to be included in a block, the probability is related to the fee that transaction pays to the miner (higher fee = more likely) and varies over time based on demand of block space (more congested = higher fee needed). It's also unpredictable because miners can choose whatever transactions they want to, doesn't always have to be the x highest fees. </p>

<p>Here's some stats on current fee vs confirmation time estimations: <a href="https://bitcoinfees.21.co" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://bitcoinfees.21.co</a></p>
