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If six-month contracts become the standard in the potash space, we might expect similar performance for MOS, POT and AGU) — whether or not it also translates into higher food prices downstream. Mosaic (MOS) has confessed that last quarter its average potash sale was at $318 a ton, so the last few months have definitely been good to these companies. It would take a really good number — on par with MOS and its fivefold profit expansion last year — to push POT much higher from here.

In such a scenario, investors could look to an investment such as the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSEArca:TBF) that will rise in value as interest rates rise and bond prices fall. The Republicans taking control of Congress has given rise to a key word that was a hot topic in Europe last year-"austerity." One thing is for sure:History shows that printing large amounts of money to pay the bills will lead to inflation.

Compare the price ratio of the iShares Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Bond ETF ( TIP ) to the iShares Treasury Bonds 7-10 Year ETF ( IEF ). As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/TIP is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator (( IEF )). [Click all to enlarge] TIPS/Nominal Treasuries I've notated the price ratio trends to keep the environment at the time an important part of the discussion.

Investors who want to be more aggressive can consider the ProShares Ultrashort Euro ETF (NYSEArca:EUO), an ETF geared to move two times the inverse of the euro's movement versus the dollar. The Republicans taking control of Congress has given rise to a key word that was a hot topic in Europe last year-"austerity." One thing is for sure:History shows that printing large amounts of money to pay the bills will lead to inflation.

Right now, we are bearish on INFY, SLT and RDY — more losses are in store for these companies, which are still fairly richly valued. This is a political hot button that may drive Delhi to adopt non-market-friendly policies as it tries to fight the trend. Food is not just a huge component in overall wholesale inflation of 8.4% — which would ordinarily be alarming in itself — but the key to the entire political set-up.

"FXI" has $8.37 billion in assets, and only holds "mega cap" Hong Kong-based Chinese companies that depend largely on exports to the West. The proposed MSCI China Index Fund would provide deeper exposure to the rapidly growing domestic Chinese economy than the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (NYSEArca:FXI), which is currently the largest China ETF. iShares' filing comes at a time of rising inflationary pressures in China and intimations of a real estate bubble similar to the one that contributed to the "Great Recession" in the developed world.

The Hartford ( HIG ) BestWeek: CEOs at P/C Joint Forum Gird for Pricing Resolve, on January 17, 2011, "Trading Markets" In a joint forum, property and casualty insurance sector's top executives look into the industry's challenges and opportunities. Higher gasoline prices are linked to higher revenues for MasterCard. Its businesses are competing against financially stronger rivals and facing such headwinds as persistently low interest rates, which have dented investment returns and sales of certain products.

Contrary to 2010, this year might feature a slowing Chinese economy and re-rating stock markets, thanks to improved policy visibility, peaking out inflation and still relatively strong earnings growth . Anything the Chinese government does to fight local inflation will have the side effect of boosting the global buying power of the yuan. Wen Jiabao is going after lending but can now claim he is letting market forces shape the moves in the currency without hurting the consumer.

Of course, this may not sound surprising at all, but considering these workers actually spend the majority of take-home pay each month, a higher unemployment rate in this demographic becomes even more problematic. While various government entities may not actuallycut the number of weeks available for unemployment, new extensions are much more unlikely. Usually, inflation is reported "ex food and energy" which is all well and good for consumers who don't eat, or drive cars, or heat their homes.

If this price level were to be reached due to inflationary pressure and growth in demand from emerging countries, aggregate dollar purchases of gasoline would see a corresponding increase. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. MasterCard ( MA ) is the second largest global payment solutions company in the world after Visa ( V ), and processes approximately 21 billion transactions each year.

How about Gold ( GLD ) and Gold Miners ([[GDX]] and [[GDXJ]])? Michael Albert submits: It seems like in many ways the only question that really matters for the "Risk-On" or "Risk-Off" trade is whether market participants believe we're entering into a period of inflation or deflation. Furthermore, given continuous recurring fears over debt deflation -- whether due to concerns over heavily indebted European countries or U.S. municipalities -- we continously seem to feel what I call "pulses" of liquidity coming into the market and getting sucked right back out.

Stein: I've had good luck with the Canadian one [(iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund (NYSEArca:EWC)]. Ludwig: That flies in the face of brokerage industry orthodoxy that equities are better than cash or bonds to achieve returns over the long term that beat inflation. Had Bank of America not stepped in and rescued Merrill Lynch, or had Mr. Paulson suddenly not come to his senses and instituted TARP, the disaster could have been on an unprecedented scale.

Here are five top miners that should be dropped from your stock portfolio: Posco ( PKX ) Operating in Korea, Posco (NYSE: PKX ) is an integrated steel producer that starts off the list of the top metal and mining stocks to sell now. Over the past 12 months, PKX's stock performance has been anything but thrilling. Thanks to the prospect of commodity inflation due to a weak dollar and glimmers of an economic recovery, many experts are predicting gold prices to rally and silver to continue to set new highs in the months ahead.

These reports together comprise the Bank of England's ( BOE ) primary method of evaluating inflation targets for the purpose of adjusting monetary policies. With US markets absent from yesterday's trading due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the USD experienced mixed results against its currency rivals. The EUR appears to have continued paring last week's gains while the British pound looks stronger from this morning's consumer confidence and housing reports.

Packaged foods maker General Mills, Inc. ( GIS ) on Wednesday saw its rating and price target boosted by analysts at Goldman Sachs. The analyst cited a rapid onset of inflation and higher promotional activity for the upgrade, and noted GIS should see some of the highest organic sales growth in the sector in 2011. The Bottom Line We have been recommending shares of General Mills ( GIS ) since July 30, 2009, when the stock was trading at $29.54.

US Financial Sector (NYSEArca:IYF), Vanguard Financials ( VFH ), and SPDR Financial (NYSEArca:XLF) are the most popular broad-based, low-cost funds for this sector. Once balance sheets have been restored the Federal Reserve will likely raise its prime lending rate, and its hand may be tipped sooner if inflation kicks up. But the more fundamental economic point is that foreclosures, in aggregate, drag down housing prices and give underwater homeowners more reason to default strategically.

Earnings Preview On the earnings front, CIT Group ( CIT ), Dell ( DELL ), Fossil (FOSL), Tesla Motors (TSLA), and ValueClick (VCLK) are slated to release their quarterly earnings reports. "We experienced significant network disruptions in the U.S. and Europe and unusually high costs from severe winter storms," said Alan Graf, FedEx's chief financial officer. Asian stocks didn't stray far from breakeven, as traders reacted to news that China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.9% in January.

Nokia ( NOK ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) are said to be close to announcing a software partnership, Bloomberg reports. Stocks are mixed at mid-session as investors digest yet another stream of earnings news--most notably from Cisco Systems ( CSCO )--while jobless claims figures declined to a two-and-a-half-year low. Some economists thought a surprise rate hike couldn't be entirely ruled out given recent comments and signs of rekindling inflation risks, even as growth remains tepid.

Nokia ( NOK ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) are said to be close to announcing a software partnership, Bloomberg reports. Stocks are mixed at mid-session as investors digest yet another stream of earnings news--most notably from Cisco Systems ( CSCO )--while jobless claims figures declined to a two-and-a-half-year low. Some economists thought a surprise rate hike couldn't be entirely ruled out given recent comments and signs of rekindling inflation risks, even as growth remains tepid.

Brazil, represented by the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (NYSEArca:EWZ) has also been relatively weak as South America's biggest economy steps up efforts to cool inflation as well. Specifically, tax cuts that are adding to the federal budget deficit, plus the Fed's "quantitative easing," highlight my concerns that policies designed to stimulate the economy could now be counterproductive. As one economist pointed out at this year's "Inside ETFs" Conference in Florida, transfer payments such as welfare and unemployment benefits now make up 20 percent of disposable income in the U.S.

Giants like Woori ( WF , quote ) are already helping out in the bailout process, grabbing $44 million in bonds from failed banks and pondering outright absorption of at least one of them. As it is, the government is still allocating about 20 trillion won ( quote ) -- roughly $20 billion -- to fund the process of restructuring the country's apparently failure-ridden banking sector . Meanwhile, inflation pressures are reportedly becoming an outright "threat" to finance minister Yoon, so more interest rate hikes are likely to be in the cards.

Also the consumer is burdened with the higher cost of living and is left with less income to pay for insurance premiums. A higher inflation rate in the future could coincide with business or macro economic conditions that would result in Hartford's operating margin to drop below our current expectations. Hartford Financial ( HIG ) is one of the largest providers of investment products, individual life, group life and group disability insurance products, as well as property and casualty insurance products in the U.S.

Companies such as Nike (NYSE: NKE ) , Coach (NYSE: COH ) and Tiffany (NYSE: TIF ) are just a few of the names that come to mind. Throw in the fact that prices for food and other commodities are starting to rise, and China'sinflation rate appears set to stay at 5% -- or trend higher -- as long as itseconomy is in growth mode. But policy planners are likely to stop the process of rate hikes before too long, unless it wants to expose the Chinese banking sector to the myriad risks presented by a sharp economic slowdown.

It shows the outperformance since the beginning of November of the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodity index over the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSEArca:EEM), the most liquid emerging markets ETF. Source:U.S. Treasury With the probabilities of the deflation trade seemingly diminishing for the time being, it's still too soon to declare victory, in my view. Specifically, tax cuts that are adding to the federal budget deficit, plus the Fed's "quantitative easing," highlight my concerns that policies designed to stimulate the economy could now be counterproductive.

One more quote from Gross in February: My Translation - The real rate yield returning to historical norms could make US TIPs vulnerable. TIP ( TIP ) is the iShares Treasury Inflation Protected Bond Fund. TIPs helps hedge against inflation moves, but Bill points out that right now the 5 year TIPs have historically low real yields of -0.1% vs. a historical average of +1.5%.

The iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (NYSEArca:EPU) will give investors exposure to a high-growth South American country that has a heavy reliance on commodity prices. The broad array of single-country ETFs now on the market make this challenge easy to meet for investors looking to buy on the dip in rapidly expanding countries such as India. This move is in response to rising commodity prices, which has led to fears of inflation in the booming nation, which surpassed Japan last year as the world's second-biggest economy.

China tries again to battle inflation as the Chinese central bank raised their bank reserve requirement ratio ( RRR ) by 0.50% to 19.5%. In fact global commodity markets are only showing a modest reaction to the China move and sold off a little do to the surprise aspect. From the No Kidding department, DOW Jones reports that IEA head Nobuo Tanaka said that the global economy would suffer from sustained oil prices of $100 a barrel.

But policy planners are likely to stop the process of rate hikes before too long, unless it wants to expose the Chinese banking sector to the myriad risks presented by a sharp economic slowdown. These are the least-skilled jobs, and the goods made have a very large labor component, so this segment of theeconomy really competes with places like Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America and Southeast Asia. The reasons for risinginflation are pretty straightforward and can be explained by the notion of "capacity utilization."

The most heavily traded Chinese ETF, the iShares FTSE China 25 ETF (NYSEArca:FXI), is down 12 percent from the November high. The broad array of single-country ETFs now on the market make this challenge easy to meet for investors looking to buy on the dip in rapidly expanding countries such as India. This move is in response to rising commodity prices, which has led to fears of inflation in the booming nation, which surpassed Japan last year as the world's second-biggest economy.

Its main competitors include large insurers like MetLife ( MET ), Prudential ( PRU ) and AIG ( AIG ). Also the consumer is burdened with the higher cost of living and is left with less income to pay for insurance premiums. During 2008, the inflation rate in the U.S. rose to about 3.8% from 2.8% in the previous year, and during this period, Hartford Financial's operating margin declined from 16.6% in 2007 to about 0% in 2008.

The analyst said that "expectations for 7-8% commodity inflation over the next 18 months will be a headwind to margin expansion; however, we view DRI as best able to defend margins with price increases, supply chain efficiencies, and real estate ownership." The Bottom Line Shares of Darden Restaurants ( DRI ) have a 2.60% dividend yield, based on last night's closing stock price of $49.30. Full-service restaurant operator Darden Restaurants, Inc. ( DRI ) on Friday saw its price target and earnings estimates raised by analysts at Susquehanna.

Its main competitors include large insurers like MetLife ( MET ), Prudential ( PRU ) and AIG ( AIG ). Also the consumer is burdened with the higher cost of living and is left with less income to pay for insurance premiums. During 2008, the inflation rate in the U.S. rose to about 3.8% from 2.8% in the previous year, and during this period, Hartford Financial's operating margin declined from 16.6% in 2007 to about 0% in 2008.

Also, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSEArca:TBT), the world's biggest leveraged fund, has gained almost 10 percent this year. TBT delivers twice the inverse of its index's daily performance. ProShares, the world's biggest purveyor of inverse and leveraged exchange-traded funds, today rolled out what it called the first geared ETF focused on the Treasury inflation-protected securities market.

Newmont Mining ( NEM ) is primarily a gold producer with significant assets or operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. The massive monetary easing that occurred during the financial crisis of 2008/2009 could spur inflation down the road, encouraging central banks to add to their gold reserves as a means of avoiding currency devaluation. Gold sales for 2010 are expected to be around 5.3 million ounces, generating net revenues of $7.1 billion for the company.

Not going to be a good day for the Indonesian-focused ETF IDX or the bigger Indonesian stocks that trade in the United States like Indonesia Telecom (TLK) or Indosat (IIT). Indonesian monetary authorities surprised global investors overnight by raising local interest rates a quarter of a percentage point in order to curb inflation. And over in , prime minister Manmohan Singh is selling more inflation concerns to his people, saying that rising prices represent “a serious threat” to economic growth going forward.India Indian stocks, as it happens, are down again today.

Well, the reason why markets reacted that way is because the lower figure is partly the beneficiary of a previously announced change--effective January 2011--in the weight of items included the CPI basket calculation. Not to mention food prices soared 10.3% after rising 9.6% in December - Grain escalated 15.1%, fresh eggs climbed 20.2%, and fruit spiked 34.8% from a year ago, according to the official report. Moreover, the worst drought in 60 years hitting China northern “wheat belt” will only putting more upward pressure on the already rampant food price inflation, although Beijing so far has downplayed it.

The funds at risk: ETFs like PIN ( quote ), THD ( quote ), EPHE ( quote ), TUR ( quote ), FXI ( quote )... A small oil shock could even help jump-start the economies of developed countries and put an end to the Fed and Bank of Japan's deflationary concerns once and for all. If both food and fuel are more expensive, things could get tense -- and to avoid that, central banks are likely to raise interest rates as high as necessary, cooling economic activity in the process.

Qualcomm ( QCOM ) raised their dividend payout but shares closed lower following a Wall Street analyst downgrade. This is a problem for conservative investors who have remained on the sidelines, deciding to keep their money in low interest rate savings accounts or CD's. Increasing one's exposure to quality dividend-paying stocks that have consistently raised their dividend payouts is one way to cushion one's investment portfolio to the crushing blow of inflation over time.

Yen And Swiss Franc The Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (NYSEArca:FXY) gained 2.5 percent in the last two weeks, and the Rydex CurrencyShares Swiss Franc ETF (NYSEArca:FXF) did even better, with a 5 percent gain. While the Swiss franc and the yen could be considered safe havens within the currency market, the euro and British pound are outperforming for a different reason. As the Federal Reserve appears to be OK with the scenario of low interest rates for the foreseeable future-even at the risk of high inflation-European policymakers are suggesting they're going in a different direction.

Analyst upgrades helped push up shares of Accenture ( ACN ) and Unilever ( UN ) this morning. We had a slew of dividend increases from several financials, including J.P. Morgan ( JPM ), State Street ( STT ), U.S. Bancorp ( USB ), Wells Fargo ( WFC ), and BB&T ( BBT ). Savings account and CD bank customers are missing a huge chance to buy quality dividend-paying companies that should be able to consistently raise profits through any inflation period.

The funds at risk: ETFs like PIN ( quote ), THD ( quote ), EPHE ( quote ), TUR ( quote ), FXI ( quote )... A small oil shock could even help jump-start the economies of developed countries and put an end to the Fed and Bank of Japan's deflationary concerns once and for all. If both food and fuel are more expensive, things could get tense -- and to avoid that, central banks are likely to raise interest rates as high as necessary, cooling economic activity in the process.

What it boils down to is that those interested in South Africa have a better option with the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (NYSEArca:EZA), which has 3.5 times as many assets as GAF and has far greater trading volume. Guggenheim's website shows that BNY Mellon classifies its countries according to GDP, per capita income, inflation rates, privatization of infrastructure, and social inequalities. FRN also strictly holds depositary receipts in its portfolio, which can limit the fund's ability to gain exposure to many companies that are only listed locally in their respective markets.

You can go with their blue chips such as Switzerland-based Novartis (NYSE: NVS ) or Japan's Canon (NYSE: CAJ ) . Their exposure to calmer foreign economies will help smooth out their results, while they'll also see a boost in foreign-earned profits as they are repatriated back into a weaker dollar. Stable foreign blue chips Certain countries have developed very strong economic foundations that have attracted global investors in search of low inflation risks.

Tobacco giant Philip Morris International Inc. ( PM ) on Wednesday saw its shares added to Goldman Sachs' prestigious "Conviction Buy" List. A Goldman analyst said that PM is "the best earnings grower among large-cap staples that is insulated to commodity inflation and levered to the weak US dollar." The firm also set a $74 price target on PM, which implies a 14% upside to the stock's Tuesday closing price of $65.26.

Obviously, the Korean ETF ( EWY , quote ) is the way to trade the long-term impact of what could truly become a stagflationary environment. The main gauge of Korean retail inflation surged to 4.5% last month, well above Seoul's target and revealing that price pressure is alive and well even at the industrial heart of Asia. Part of the problem here is that like many countries, Korea has elected to weaken its currency, the won, while allowing inflation to gain a toehold within the economy as a result.

Some of today's biggest winners included Public Storage ( PSA ), Caterpillar ( CAT ), and PNC Financial Services ( PNC ). This is a problem for conservative investors who have remained on the sidelines, deciding to keep their money in low interest rate savings accounts or CD's. Increasing one's exposure to quality dividend-paying stocks that have consistently raised their dividend payouts is one way to cushion one's investment portfolio to the crushing blow of inflation over time.

When it comes to many retailers, most price increases are "sticky." Selling was fairly widespread, with names like Best Buy ( BBY ), Wynn Resorts ( WYNN ), and Manpower ( MAN ) seeing some of the biggest percentage drops. Corporations need to weigh the possibility of raising prices to keep margins healthy vs. the risks of another recession as well as potential deflation sneaking back in the picture.

Fundamentally speaking, the dollar's ( quote ) real challenge here is the prospect that a sustained oil shock will accelerate global inflationary pressures. In the United States in particular, the dollar is seen as vulnerable to the prospect that the Federal Reserve will effectively surrender to inflation in order to avoid raising interest rates before the last possible moment. Even a perfunctory interest rate hike could drive Greece, Portugal, Ireland or even Spain back into another funding crisis -- which would likely have a net negative impact on the euro down the road, to say the least.

Some of today's biggest winners included Public Storage ( PSA ), Caterpillar ( CAT ), and PNC Financial Services ( PNC ). This is a problem for conservative investors who have remained on the sidelines, deciding to keep their money in low interest rate savings accounts or CD's. Increasing one's exposure to quality dividend-paying stocks that have consistently raised their dividend payouts is one way to cushion one's investment portfolio to the crushing blow of inflation over time.

See Key PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) This PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB ) seeks to track the price and yield performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield Industrial Metals Excess Return. Top ETFs to Buy Now In addition to political changes in the Middle East and North Africa, along with the continuing threat of European debt contagion, the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan add more pressure to the prospects of long-term inflation. Holdings include futures contracts of cocoa, sugar, coffee, live cattle, soybean, corn, wheat, lean hogs, etc.

Fundamentally speaking, the dollar's ( quote ) real challenge here is the prospect that a sustained oil shock will accelerate global inflationary pressures. In the United States in particular, the dollar is seen as vulnerable to the prospect that the Federal Reserve will effectively surrender to inflation in order to avoid raising interest rates before the last possible moment. Even a perfunctory interest rate hike could drive Greece, Portugal, Ireland or even Spain back into another funding crisis -- which would likely have a net negative impact on the euro down the road, to say the least.

MCHI will also compete with the SPDR S&P China ETF (NYSEArca:GXC), a $717 million fund with a 0.59 percent expense ratio. MCHI comes with an annual expense ratio of 0.61 percent-more than GXC's but less than FXI's 0.72 percent. While food- and energy-related inflation in the world's most populous nations has recently caused some investors to reallocate assets to developed economies like the U.S., few are arguing that China's longer-term prospects are blighted by its current battle to bring inflationary pressures under control.

Fundamentally speaking, the dollar's ( quote ) real challenge here is the prospect that a sustained oil shock will accelerate global inflationary pressures. In the United States in particular, the dollar is seen as vulnerable to the prospect that the Federal Reserve will effectively surrender to inflation in order to avoid raising interest rates before the last possible moment. Even a perfunctory interest rate hike could drive Greece, Portugal, Ireland or even Spain back into another funding crisis -- which would likely have a net negative impact on the euro down the road, to say the least.

DAD cites strong performance from Foot Locker ( FL ) and Dick's Sporting Goods ( DKS ) for the potential upside to estimates this quarter. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Finally, Nike is well insulated from inflation.

Retailers held up well despite a huge earnings miss from Urban Outfitters ( URBN ). This is a problem for conservative investors who have remained on the sidelines, deciding to keep their money in low interest rate savings accounts or CD's. Increasing one's exposure to quality dividend-paying stocks that have consistently raised their dividend payouts is one way to cushion one's investment portfolio to the crushing blow of inflation over time.

Selling was fairly widespread, with names like Best Buy ( BBY ), Wynn Resorts ( WYNN ), and Manpower ( MAN ) seeing some of the biggest percentage drops. Corporations need to weigh the possibility of raising prices to keep margins healthy vs. the risks of another recession as well as potential deflation sneaking back in the picture. Everyone knows I am all about being consistent with putting your capital to work, which is why our firm is always looking to make sure the names that remain on the recommended list are fit for new investment dollars.

Brazilian banks like ITUB ( quote ), BSBR ( quote ), BBD ( quote ) are still in great shape and are at very interesting levels here. The crisis in Japan was the biggest factor in this week's action, but the global growth scare may actually be beneficial for the world's emerging markets. The fact is that a little less global growth could be a boon for emerging markets that are already at risk of overheating from inflationary pressures -- some admittedly homegrown but a lot of it imported from overseas trade partners.

The SPDR S&P International Energy ETF (NYSEArca:IPW) rockets ahead of the rest of the segments that make up the All Country World Ex-US Index, represented by the iShares MSCI ACWI ex US Index Fund (NasdaqGM:ACWX). "GDP growth will be slower, headline inflation will be higher, housing prices will stay weak longer," he notes. As proof, Kotok offers the following observation:Look at all the components of the S&P 500 Index and you'll see that energy is the only segment on an upward trend.

Ctrip.com has started to move higher in recent sessions, but one investor apparently thinks that it won't journey far. optionMONSTER's tracking systems detected the sale of 2,150 May 35 puts for $0.67 and an equal number of May 45 calls for $0.78, resulting in a credit of about $1.45. The company had been growing rapidly but has languished along with other Chinese stocks since late 2010 as investors worry about inflationary pressures.

The Vietnam Fund ( VNM ) , an exchange-traded fund ( ETF ) that holds a basket of Vietnamese stocks, is just above its 52-week low. Not only is a wide swath of the northern part of Honshu (the main Island) facing potentially major environmental challenges, but Japan's fiscal response to the crisis will alter the value of itscurrency . After a torrid growth phase, the past two years have proven far more challenging.Inflation has bubbled up, the government is running budget deficits due to deficient tax collections, and rigid polices form central planners are creating bureaucratic hurdles.

Since HCN has risen principally because it is considered a "bond substitute," a rise in interest rates could significantly impact the price of the stock. However, the overall trend remains up, for now. The latter are especially vulnerable to selling in periods of lower bond prices and higher interest rates, and they offer little in the way of inflation protection.

The Taiwan ETF ( EWT , quote ) is the easiest way to play here. Even though the central bank is worried about the impact of Japan's earthquake on global economic growth, the risk here is apparently much more on the side of inflation. Capital expenditures on chip equipment will come in at a record, up 30% this year as TSM works to expand its already vast manufacturing capacity to keep up with the world's demand for high-end silicon.

WisdomTree also offers the Dreyfus Currency Income ETF (NYSEArca:CEW) that invests in a basket of 12 equally weighted emerging market currencies that includes countries from five different continents. While the Swiss franc and the yen could be considered safe havens within the currency market, the euro and British pound are outperforming for a different reason. As the Federal Reserve appears to be OK with the scenario of low interest rates for the foreseeable future-even at the risk of high inflation-European policymakers are suggesting they're going in a different direction.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD ) - This exchange-traded fund (ETF) has had a terrific run from $80 a year ago to the recent new breakout high at over $140 (see chart below). Traders should consider buying GLD May 143 Calls at $2.65 or lower with a target of $7. But with new pressures to load up on gold coming from both China and the Middle East, and the Fed now in inflation "vigilance" mode, yesterday's breakout from a compound top is telling us to add to current positions since the breakout target is $150.

It is now, more than ever, the enemy of the American people, and by extension, the rest of humanity. Barrick Gold Corporation (TSX:ABX; NYSE:ABX) , Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , Anglo American Plc. With all the macro factors in play, including unrest in the Middle East, and the U.S. without an approved budget and with an increasing debt load, along with high unemployment and the threat of hyperinflation, do you see a continued increase in the price of gold throughout these months?

While the government has been trying to avoid involving RMB appreciation as a means to combat inflation, it appears to be a more effective tool than merely using rate hikes and RRR increases. The PBOC announced over the weekend that it will raise the reserve requirement ratio ( RRR ) by +50 bps to 20.5%, effective April 21. Gold edged higher to 1489.7 and has been hovering around the record high level as sovereign debt concerns in the European periphery persists.

Many traders, including this one, took note of the disappointing price action in the SPDR Gold Trust's (NYSEArca:GLD) highly anticipated breakout attempt last week. As I wrote early this year, it's been my view that GLD and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca:SLV) could be in for a hefty pullback as inflationary speculation cools down and the dollar catches a bid. While gold did have had a mild pullback to the $1,390 area, both SLV and GLD found aggressive buyers that pushed the precious metals higher again, taking them back to new highs last week.

But Bernanke applied the term "transitory" to the current inflation backdrop, even though he seems to believe that emerging markets growth is "sustainable." Watch EEM ( quote ), EFA ( quote ) and SPY ( quote ) to see how emerging markets, developed markets and Wall Street all react to these pressures and the reversion to the mean from here. Ben Bernanke is right to look toward emerging markets when he talks about rising oil and gas prices, but the question is whether this situation is "transitory" or "sustainable."

Colgate competes with other leading personal care companies such as Procter & Gamble ( PG ), Unilever ( UL ) and Kimberly-Clark ( KMB ). While a volume-driven growth strategy might put Colgate at an advantage in the lower-income but high-growth emerging markets, we fear that persistent inflation could erode profit margins. While the deal promises to strengthen Colgate's personal care business in Europe, we're keeping a watch on the merger-related expenses and the post-merger integration costs yet to be incurred.

Note the movement in names like SINA ( quote ), BIDU ( quote ), SOHU ( quote ) lately. But Beijing will do this on their terms and not on any basis imposed by the U.S. or other foreign monetary authorities. Watch the impact on yuan funds like CYB ( quote ) In fact, reserve requirement hikes and outright interest rate moves seem to be working to curb inflation while giving Chinese consumers a shot in the arm by making the yuan effectively stronger in terms of its buying power.

Average U.S. demand for retail gasoline over the past four weeks fell by just 2% compared to the same period of 2010.. Thus, if we see continued higher gasoline prices in the future, the gross dollar value of credit card transaction will increase for MasterCard. This will increase the average authorization, settlement and switch fees per transaction charged by MasterCard.

P&G competes with other leading players in personal care such as Unilever ( UL ), Kimberly-Clark ( KMB ) and Colgate-Palmolive ( CL ), and markets will watch these consumer goods bellwethers for signs on spending trends and inflationary concerns. Strategy Could Pay Off P&G is essentially targeting high volumes to compensate for low margins and reduced average prices of its products. Hence, for these investments in emerging markets to put P&G on the promised, long-term growth trajectory, volume gains must start appearing in the near future.

Q1 earnings start today, with Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) reporting after the close, and some analysts have been saying that comparisons with last year's results could be difficult. On Friday, investors seemed more focused on the federal government's budget negotiations and on upcoming Q1 earnings than on buying or selling stocks. Despite the steep angle of advance seen with silver and other commodities, these groups continue to offer investors the best opportunity for near-term success due to their ability to offset the possible future inflationary trend referred discusses by the Fed at their recent FOMC meeting.

In fact, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSEArca:TBT) is the single-biggest inverse and leveraged ETF in the world. For example, a slew of inverse bond ETFs are becoming available that weren't around the last time financial markets headed into a cycle of rising rates, and it's important for investors to at least be aware of the choices that are out there. A combination of a strong equity markets and the near-certainty of inflation will force the Fed to begin raising interest rates in the coming months.

The Great Britain pound surged during the past trading week, propelled by interest rate hike speculation. Yet the central bank still managed to surprise market participants, signaling that an interest rate hike may happen sooner than most speculators were anticipating. Talking about inflation, the faster-than-expected growth of consumer prices in the United States helped the US dollar to rebound.

Business has been great for such outfits in recent years, making darlings of companies such as Chimera Investment ( CIM ) and Annaly Capital Management ( NLY ) . We can take comfort in knowing that the index is only up 2.7% over the past 12 months, which nearly matches the historic rate of inflation. Better still, food is only up 2.9%, and electricity has only increased 1%.

It is now, more than ever, the enemy of the American people, and by extension, the rest of humanity. Barrick Gold Corporation (TSX:ABX; NYSE:ABX) , Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , Anglo American Plc. With all the macro factors in play, including unrest in the Middle East, and the U.S. without an approved budget and with an increasing debt load, along with high unemployment and the threat of hyperinflation, do you see a continued increase in the price of gold throughout these months?

Yes, EWZ ( quote ) is ahead of even the top performers of yesteryear like Colombia's GXG ( quote ): Stay with the banks and domestic stocks that have already priced in a lot of the current wave of inflation concerns. Headlines around today's announcement that Brazil is extending its 6% tax on foreign purchases of local bonds may look bearish, but the real news is not so bad. This will have some impact on the pressure that is currently driving the real back up to levels higher than the Brazilian government likes.

P&G competes with other leading players in personal care such as Unilever ( UL ), Kimberly-Clark ( KMB ) and Colgate-Palmolive ( CL ), and markets will watch these consumer goods bellwethers for signs on spending trends and inflationary concerns. Strategy Could Pay Off P&G is essentially targeting high volumes to compensate for low margins and reduced average prices of its products. Hence, for these investments in emerging markets to put P&G on the promised, long-term growth trajectory, volume gains must start appearing in the near future.

As I wrote early this year, it's been my view that GLD and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca:SLV) could be in for a hefty pullback as inflationary speculation cools down and the dollar catches a bid. While gold did have had a mild pullback to the $1,390 area, both SLV and GLD found aggressive buyers that pushed the precious metals higher again, taking them back to new highs last week. SLV's recent outperformance can be seen in the chart below through the lens of the gold to silver ratio.

China's consumer prices may rise as much as 5.5% this month. The gauge, used by Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ( ICE ) to track the "Greenback" vs the currencies of 6 major US trading partners, touched 73.735 on April 21, the lowest since August 2008. CICC said consumer prices may rise between 5.2% and 5.5% in April, compared with the government's full-year inflation target of 4%.

President Obama, in a press conference on March 11, also reiterated that a plan to tap the SPR was "teed up" and said he would move quickly should ‘conditions’ worsen. Unless something happens, such as the government stepping in with an SPR release announcement, or peace on earth, for example, to crash the speculative upward momentum, very little would faze oil. So using WTI as a reference point for SPR related dedisions is a bit misleading and could result in a case of "too little too late" in regards to the runaway oil and gasoline prices.

P&G competes with other leading players in personal care such as Unilever ( UL ), Kimberly-Clark ( KMB ) and Colgate-Palmolive ( CL ), and markets will watch these consumer goods bellwethers for signs on spending trends and inflationary concerns. Strategy Could Pay Off P&G is essentially targeting high volumes to compensate for low margins and reduced average prices of its products. P&G Focused on Market Share Growth P&G embarked on its ambitious goal to acquire a billion additional consumers by 2014/15, which naturally drew its focus to the two most populous nations in the world China and India.

A leveraged ETF serving the country is ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF ( FXP ), with annual fees of 0.95%. The World Bank estimates solid GDP gains even after adjusting for inflation, although the US is closing the gap a bit: China survived the Great Recession by plowing investment into much-needed infrastructure improvements such as roads and telecommunications, but also into green energy and education. To contain both company expansion which drives hiring and speculative housing construction, the People's Republic has tightened lending standards.

We touched Turkey yesterday on Trading the Globe -- and right here -- so we should follow up on the call. In fact, the looming Turkish central bank meeting has some concerned that there may be more measures on the horizon to tame inflation and the current account deficit. Will he pound his fist on the table and push now for actual rate hikes in addition to reserve moves?

Gap's ( GPS ) operates its namesake Gap brand in addition to Old Navy and Banana Republic, and competes with other specialty retailers like Aeropostale ( ARO ), American Eagle ( AEO ), Abercrombie & Fitch ( ANF ) and Urban Outfitters ( URBN ). The consumer price index (a measure of inflation) increased by 0.5% in February, the highest for any month in nearly two years and above analyst forecasts. The inflationary pressure affects profit margins of retailers like Gap that face increasing raw material costs, with global cotton prices rising over the last year.

With that in mind, here are the current positions: [[GDX]] - Gold miners - an inflation hedge, riding the wave to new highs. GDX (gold stocks) dropped right after the January interview, something you helped me to pass along in an update. Before beginning his financial career in October 1987, Jeff was a college professor who worked extensively with quantitative modeling of sophisticated state and local tax issues.

Kimberly-Clark ( KMB ), the consumer goods giant that makes items like Kleenex tissues, Huggies diapers and Kotex sanitary pads, should report Q1 earnings on April 25th. Given the inflationary environment, we expect rising raw material costs to continue putting downward pressures on gross margins. Other Areas to Watch Restructuring programs in the past have strained Kimberly-Clark's cash balance, and we look for signs that these initiatives will translate into greater efficiency in operations and improved EBITDA margins in the future.

Look at the Brazilian ETF EWZ ( quote ) and the global emerging markets fund EEM ( quote ) to compare: This is one of the best and brightest emerging markets, but it also has a reputation for being susceptible to inflationary pressure. Since peaking in early November, the Brazilian market is now down 10%, and even counting last year's surge, these stocks have gone nowhere over the last 16 months. Since the start of 2010, domestic investors in Brazil have watched their investments unravel by 6.5% on a local currency basis.

The Great Britain pound surged during the past trading week, propelled by interest rate hike speculation. Yet the central bank still managed to surprise market participants, signaling that an interest rate hike may happen sooner than most speculators were anticipating. Talking about inflation, the faster-than-expected growth of consumer prices in the United States helped the US dollar to rebound.

Gap's ( GPS ) operates its namesake Gap brand in addition to Old Navy and Banana Republic, and competes with other specialty retailers like Aeropostale ( ARO ), American Eagle ( AEO ), Abercrombie & Fitch ( ANF ) and Urban Outfitters ( URBN ). The consumer price index (a measure of inflation) increased by 0.5% in February, the highest for any month in nearly two years and above analyst forecasts. The inflationary pressure affects profit margins of retailers like Gap that face increasing raw material costs, with global cotton prices rising over the last year.

MasterCard competes with Visa ( V ), Discover Financial ( DFS ) and American Express ( AXP ). Average U.S. demand for retail gasoline over the past four weeks fell by just 2% compared to the same period of 2010.. Thus, if we see continued higher gasoline prices in the future, the gross dollar value of credit card transaction will increase for MasterCard.

But with student lending soaring, SLM ( quote ) got a small bid today, and in theory a lot of that money could trickle out into the broader economy as the tuition checks clear. The new U.S. consumer credit numbers reflect an economy that is reaccelerating, and that is very bullish for growth -- as well as inflation. All in all, U.S. household credit surged by $7.62 billion in February, ramping up faster than at any other time since June 2008.

Yes, EWZ ( quote ) is ahead of even the top performers of yesteryear like Colombia's GXG ( quote ): Stay with the banks and domestic stocks that have already priced in a lot of the current wave of inflation concerns. Headlines around today's announcement that Brazil is extending its 6% tax on foreign purchases of local bonds may look bearish, but the real news is not so bad. This will have some impact on the pressure that is currently driving the real back up to levels higher than the Brazilian government likes.

Colgate competes with other leading personal care companies such as Procter & Gamble ( PG ), Unilever ( UL ) and Kimberly-Clark ( KMB ). While a volume-driven growth strategy might put Colgate at an advantage in the lower-income but high-growth emerging markets, we fear that persistent inflation could erode profit margins. Here we highlight two key trends that investors should keep an eye on - how margins have trended over the past quarter and the outlook for market share.

Revolving credit is still declining, which may be a near-term negative for credit card companies like MA ( quote ), DFS ( quote ) and AXP ( quote ). The new U.S. consumer credit numbers reflect an economy that is reaccelerating, and that is very bullish for growth -- as well as inflation. All in all, U.S. household credit surged by $7.62 billion in February, ramping up faster than at any other time since June 2008.

SA: You had indicated you were long [[GLD]] in 2010. SF: Gold ( GLD ) is becoming lofty in terms of its pricing but technicals remain strong for the long term. Because we expect inflation to start to gain momentum we are still long and have begun to look into ([[COPX]], [[GGGG]], [[GLDX]] and [[CU]]) I do not expect performance to continue at the unprecedented levels we have seen, but they should continue to be good hedges and outright positions within well-balanced portfolios.

Nike (NYSE: NKE ) and Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR ) have done the same. If you own long-term bonds, such as 30-year U.S. Treasuries, you could see their prices fall dramatically as yields rise to keep pace with inflationary expectations. These funds buy pieces of loans made by major banks such as JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM ) to large corporate borrowers.

Lack of near-term upside for the Bovespa ( quote ) means funds like EWZ ( quote ) have correspondingly little upside ahead. Brazilian stocks have been a nasty trade for a long time, especially for casual players who bought into the short-lived spikes on the Bovespa. For one thing, local economists currently expect to see inflation slow only slightly over the next year, to a robust 5.11% annualized rate.

If you own long-term bonds, such as 30-year U.S. Treasuries, you could see their prices fall dramatically as yields rise to keep pace with inflationary expectations. These funds buy pieces of loans made by major banks such as JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM ) to large corporate borrowers. Action to Take --> If you invest now, then you might be able to earn a nice capital gain in addition to a high yield and added safety from inflation.