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A

I do enjoy, Ryan, the timing of the Fed pivot that's happening, that we're calling it. That is right before the bitcoin happening, right before the bitcoin ETF approval. The stars are aligning in a very big way.

B

The money printer is getting ready to fire back up. Bankless nation. It is the third Friday of December. It's Friday morning. That means it's time for your weekly roll up. David, what do we have in store for him?

A

We got the fed pivot. What does that mean for risk assets? I think we. No, we'll talk about the details. Did we really get the Fed pivot? We'll understand why. We'll unpack why we think that. And also air drops. It's airdrop season. Some hotly anticipated airdrops have been confirmed, some more than confirmed, with plenty of details. So we'll go into that as well. Ryan, what do we got after that?

B

Liz Warren wants to ban crypto in the US and she doesn't care who knows at this point. David, so we're going to talk about that. And pudgy penguins, they're doing some things on layer twos and in the metaverse, including some things around number go up. So we'll talk about that. The only layer two stuff. What else, David?

A

Coinbase turning its base chain into a real world asset chain. Two, we're going to get some new types of assets going onto base chain with some of the efforts out of Coinbase. All of this and more, and it's very, very bullish. Ryan, we got. The fed pivot is very, very bullish. Weekly roll up. But first we're going to talk to our friends.

B

All right, David, before we get into markets, I got to say, I saw these videos and images on crypto Twitter this week, and this is what. So David is not recording from his regular location in New York City in Brooklyn. You are actually recording? Probably. I think this is from your house in Seattle.

A

I'm back home in Seattle, yeah. So I took a little detour up in Banff before coming here. So me and Carl, Amber from across.

B

Is crypto not risky enough for you, David? What are you doing? Climbing ice ship.

A

You got to up the ante, brother. After, on your third cycle, the volatility just doesn't do it for you anymore.

B

You gotta tell us, what is it like to climb up a sheet wall of ice? This is a video here. Is this you?

A

Yeah, this one's me. All right. Climbing heart. It's nice because like it with rock climbing, you have to put your hands in specific places. But with ice climbing, you can, you know, stick your toes or your ice tools wherever you want. So, like, the whole thing is climbable. It's pretty cool, it's pretty fun. The only thing you gotta worry about is, like, when you. When you hit your tool into the ice, like, ice shrapnel can, like, come back at you. So you gotta. Gotta be careful.

B

This is not, like, free solo. Like, you are totally, like, wired in.

A

That is a rope. That is a rope connecting me. Yes. If I fall, I didn't. I did not fall one time, but if I had, I would have fallen onto a rope.

B

Oh, my God. Well, good to have you back, man. It's great. All right, well, while you were gone.

A

Where do you think the fed pivot came from?

B

Fed pivoted.

A

What do you think I was doing?

B

I don't know. Is this more back to as soon.

A

As I get down? The Fed is like, we're going to lower interest rates.

B

So you got a Powell horcrux up there? Well, let's talk about bitcoin on the week. So are we up? Are we down? Down. Um, did you help us there in your ice climbing journeys, David?

A

Uh, we were going to be down, but then we ended up flat. So bitcoin flat on the week. The crypto market's kind of flat on the week. We retraced a bigly amount after a lot of the. Just the frothiness that was accumulating for the last, I don't know, month of straight, um, up only, I would say, uh, and then we saw kind of like a negative 15% across the market day across the board. But then the Fed pivoted and so we ended up flat on this week. So bitcoin up 1%. Call it flat. We are ending the week at 42,700. Ether started the week at $2340, down 1% to $2,300. New supply lows, though. We got new supply lows in ether. So we are down to the low, low supply of 120.2 million. Going to break through that 0.2 million probably, in this, this episode level. And then bitcoin, the ether bitcoin ratio also flat on the weekend. Okay, so it could have been a bearish week, but we got a flat week.

B

Yeah. So. And you mentioned there, I just. I just want to embellish this a little bit. So ether supply at all time lows.

A

So no post merge lows?

B

Post merge lows. Of course, merge. We can't go back to the.

A

But, yeah, but time started as.

B

Yeah, it's, you know, the clock started 455 days ago. Um, and also, did you know this while we were talking about bitcoin? 13 years ago to the day this week, uh, as of December 13, we just celebrated the anniversary of Satoshi disappearing. You just went away.

A

His last message on the Internet.

B

His last or their last message. This group of people, whoever Satoshi actually is, vanished. Uh, twelve years ago. No, 13 years ago.

A

13 days, 13 years ago.

B

Never came back.

A

You got to really, like tip the hat to him. Being anonymous on the Internet and retaining an anonymity after you make billions and billions of dollars in this network, that's hard. That's a hard thing to do. He covered his tracks extremely well.

B

Somebody knows who he is, don't you think? CIA, NSA, some three letter agency.

A

I don't know, man. I don't know. I mean, I think the industry has, it's Hal Finney. Like, I think everyone would place their bets and say it was Hal Finney. Um, but no one really knows. No one really knows. Well, I can tell you who it's not. It's not Craig Wright. I know that tell you.

B

It's not me either, David. I'll go on record and tell you that I'm not Satoshi. Let's take a look at the crypto market cap. What are we at on the week?

A

We just poked through $1.7 trillion coming up to $1.71 trillion. Some really healthy numbers in the total crypto market cap.

B

I haven't seen 1.7 in a long time since the last bull.

A

A long time. Remember when we did like a year and a half of bank list weekly roll ups and you were asked me what is the crypto market cap? And the answer was $1.1 trillion.

B

It was.

A

Hated that question. Why are you asking the question, Brian? It's 1.1.

B

I mean, we had about twelve months around like the 1 trillion mark and it would go a little bit below, a little bit above and we're just crabbing up and now we're getting close to 2 trillion, David. So pretty soon you could say 2 trillion. Speaking of numbers, going up on layer trade chart I, layer twos. We are at all time highs for total value locked in layer twos. That is $16 billion worth of value locked. And lets see activity as well on layer twos at all time highs. This was an interesting chart from Growthepie XYZ, which is another fantastic website for tracking layer twos in terms of transaction fees. David, earlier this week we hit one day that marked all time highs in terms of fees paid by layer twos to ethereum, 1.25 million. That is part of the reason for the ETH burn. Part of the reason ETH supply is at all time lows, at least since the merge, is because we are burning more transaction fees and layer twos are actually consuming block space on ethereum layer ones. I mean, ethereum economics, ethernomics, if you will, looking quite healthy going to this bull season. I mean, there's a lot of talk about layer twos or layer ones and ETH transaction fees being high and that being bearish. It's not bearish to me, let me tell you that. And layer two on the uptick is looking pretty nice as well.

A

If you tallied all of the assets deposit onto layer twos, a k a like aggregate, layer two tvl, it would be number ten in market cap behind lido staked ether, head of avalanche.

B

Wow. Wow. So the climbing, climbing on the charts, David, tell us about some tokens of the week. So now that we're in the bull market, we got to keep an eye on the tokens that are pumping. You got two. What's the first one?

A

First one is injective, coming in at plus 80% on the week.

B

Wow.

A

It is a layer one. I don't know much more than that other than a lot of the crypto, Twitter, influencer, trader. People are all talking about it. I mean, that's what happens when a token goes up 80% of the week. The bonk still coming in at number two on the week at plus 70%. Uh, but the other thing that we have, that I have listed here is an NFT. Ryan, pudgies definitely deserve a shout out. If you look at the market cap from December to now, they are at from like a five eth floor to where they are now at, um, eleven eth floor.

B

This is all doubling.

A

An NFT doubling. Is that all time highs?

B

Yeah.

A

Wow.

B

Good for, uh, previous all time highs was a floor of about six. Is this right? Does this go back far? Far enough?

A

I don't know if it goes back far enough, but eleven seems it definitely could be a pudgy all time high.

B

All time high.

A

At least I fumbled my pudgies at 1.25 eth.

B

Oh, you sold, you sold your pudgies. You kept your crypto punk.

A

Not crypto punk, that one was.

B

So pudgies are now number four. The number four PFP collection.

A

Yeah, just number four behind board. Ape and mutant apes, man doing quite well.

B

And you what crypto punk?

A

Never thought I would have seen the day. Crypto punks, board apes, mutant names, pudgy penguins.

B

Like, why did, why did they turn around so hard?

A

You have a take on that new management? Yeah. Luca and the people that bought the pudgy penguin IP just are absolute chad executors who turned the IP around and started actually building stuff. Like, they're the reasons why pudgy penguin, uh, stuffed animals are in Walmart. And later on in the show, we're going to talk about the pudgy penguin metaverse world. The thing that the board ape that, uh, otherworld, uh, was promised to be. I think pudgy penguins kind of beat them to the punch.

B

Oh, wow. Just a good old fashioned execution. That's why they're pumping, at least at the early stages. Yeah.

A

Here's a take from Mike Ibalido. Nfts are under owned by crypto Twitter, but everyone believes in them long term. The setup for an absolutely biblical fomo rotation is here. Nfts remain the fat pitch in crypto right now. And this is after Mike put out a poll of saying how much of crypto Twitter has at least 10% of their wealth in nfts, and everyone's gave the smallest answer of five to 10%. So Mike is saying everyone is underexposed to nfts.

B

You think it's going to be pfps again? This time we're getting into speculation territory. It's like my problem.

A

It can't just be the same thing over again.

B

Right? That's what I mean. I just, like, I'm bullish nfts. I just don't know what particular nfts. So maybe you could help me with that, David. Maybe we'll do an episode on that. I've been telling you, I want a different answer, though. I want an answer that is in.

A

The back of my podcast studio every single time in Brooklyn. It's a gigantic crypto punk.

B

Nah, that's, you know, that's like old news. I'm looking for the new meta, the cheap one.

A

All right, the new crypto punks.

B

Well, let's talk about the big news in markets. This is in trad markets, but it affects basically everything. And that is the long awaited Fed pivot. Did we just get the fed pivot this week, David?

A

You know, we can only interpret if we are getting the fed pivot. It's not like the Fed is going to come and say, it's not like Jay Powell. They don't use those words like, yo, we're pivoting. But here's what happened. We got the third instance in a row in which they did not raise rates. Rates stayed unchanged. And then previously they were going to signal that in 2024, they were perhaps going to cut rates once. That was the status quo going into this meeting that happened yesterday, they continued, they're not raising rates. So. Third time in a row. And then now, now they are signaling that there are three cuts coming next year. So currently interest rates are up at between 5.25 to 5.5%. And they said that they're going to get to 4.6% by the end of 2024. So they are accelerating in their interest, in lowering interest rates. And the markets responded as if it was the Fed pivot, like the Nasdaq and spy are in LFG mode. I think Nasdaq is, like, poking into all time highs. Yeah, it's about to hit. The spy is about to hit all time highs. Coin stock, which I think it's a pretty good barometer of just, like, risk appetite, because, like, what happened when we had low interest rates last time, like, you know, crypto assets just mooned. So people perhaps are using coinstock as an exposure to assets to an asset that is exposed to low interest rates. So coin is breaking out through, like, a highs not seen since May of 2022. Is that $150 a share? So, yeah, the markets are responding as if we got the pivot.

B

Yeah, I love this Bloomberg headline. David Powell brings tequila to the Wall street rate cut party. So Powell's pouring drinks here, and there's a clip here of his comments on the recession. You want to hear what he says about the recession?

C

I think you can say that there's little basis for thinking that the economy is in a recession now.

B

Basically. Little basis for thinking the economy's in a recession now. So we're kind of getting close to mission accomplished. He followed that up by saying, who knows what'll happen in 2024? But, like, we're cutting. So what does that tell you? I think one of the unspoken things about this, you know, other than, you know, Powell not using the, the p word for pivot, of course, is the debt, the underlying Us debt, and the interest payment on that debt. I was just looking at this this morning. US interest payment on an annualized basis, about $700 trillion, David, right now, on top of its colossal amount of debt. So it has to pay that every single year. That's more than the US, um, pays for defense, pays for its military. Okay, so the higher.

A

You don't usually hear anything being higher than that, right?

B

The higher the fed rate, of course, the greater the interest payments. And so that's some other unspoken pressure that. That is pushing these rates, I think, down. And something, of course, Powell can't say, uh, I don't know if Yellen will. Will comment on that, but this interest payment is increasing. And if. If it went beyond 5%, if interest rates went to six, seven, 8%, I mean, this just ratchets up until it's a massive portion of us GDP every year, and then how is that sustainable? So there's always going to be this downward pressure, and I think that's something unspoken that is starting to apply. So Powell may not like it, but he has to pivot at some point, and this might be the opportunity.

A

This is what we've been saying ever since they turned on the interest rates in early 2022. Everyone has been saying, well, they're going to pivot at some point. Well, they're going to pivot at some point. Well, they're going to pivot at some point. And why is. Because you know that the Fed can't bankrupt the government by keeping interest rates high. So we always knew that the Fed pivot was coming. We just didn't know when or where. We always knew it was on the horizon. I do enjoy, Ryan, the timing of the Fed pivot that's happening, that we're calling it. That is right before the bitcoin happening, right before the bitcoin ETF approval. The stars are aligning in a very big way.

B

The money printer is getting ready to fire back up. David, do you want to get some predictions? I know we did a couple of episodes on predictions, but one that didn't make a full episode because we just didn't have time. This year was bitwise predictions. They had ten of them, and you pulled a few of them out. And this is from another Ryan. How do you pronounce Ryan's last name? You went to college with this guy, right? So you know who Ryan is?

A

Yeah. His last name is a Rasmussen, but you can go ahead and call him Rattlesnake, because the little secret of Ryan is he gets rattled really easily.

B

Oh, dude, I. You could say that. Because you're friends, I guess.

A

Yeah. Okay.

B

Okay. Sorry, Ryan.

A

I'll pause.

B

I apologize on David's behalf. Okay. So what were the predictions that you pulled out? Because you only pulled out Ryan's good ones, right?

A

Only the good ones. Yeah. 13467 and ten. So half of them. More than half of them are pretty damn good.

B

Good job, Ryan.

A

To read the rest there is a link in the show notes, actually, this tweet thread did absolute numbers. So congrats. Rattlesnake. Bitcoin number one, trading above $80,000 from the two catalysts of the bitcoin ETF and the happening feels pretty safe. But bullish. But safe. Prediction $80,000 bitcoin in 2024. How do you feel about that one, Ryan?

B

I feel like it's too safe. I'm like, not okay.

A

Too safe.

B

Yeah, way too safe.

A

Well, I mean, he's. I'm sure he's trying to get as many, like, you know, points on the board as possible. Safe predictions. Prediction number three, Coinbase's revenue will double, beating Wall Street's expectations by ten x because Coinbase trading volume surges in bull markets, of course, and they have launched a bunch of new products. And so basically Coinbase is going to just blow people's, blow expectations out of the water. You want to do the next one?

B

I also think that's kind of safe, but also good, right, and beating Wall Street's expectations by ten x. Well, Wall street obviously had bad expectations then. I think. Prediction number four, more money will settle using stable coins than using visa. You could see this chart where we're kind of like, not quite neck and neck. In 2023, it was just stablecoin settlement was about half that of visa. And so this is a significant increase in stablecoin settlement. The next one, number six, is Ethereum revenue, well, more than two x to 5 billion as users flock to crypto applications. What do you think about that one, David?

A

I think that's about right. Especially as layer twos and layer two activity, demand goes up only and value and assets on layer twos also go up only when there's more money on layer two. There's more economic energy on layer twos, which means we're burning more ether in layer twos, which means Ethereum revenues going up. All right, the most bold prediction of the bunch, Taylor Swift will launch NFts. Man, that is bold. And I am absolutely here for it. I can't really, really call myself a swifty, although I do enjoy my fair share of Taylor Swift songs.

B

Yeah, was usually swifty in college, David.

A

I know his girlfriend is.

B

Yeah.

A

Anyways, last, last prediction, Ethereum will drive the average transaction cost to below one penny. And he is, of course, talking about Ethereum and his layer twos because that's where you're going to get $0.00.01 transaction fees. And that is going to be spurred by Dankun aka Proto dank sharding. That's EIP 4844, which is probably going to come in 2024 early 24 to save prediction.

B

I'm very confident of that. David, what do we have coming up next?

A

Coming up next, airdrops. Airdrops, airdrops. We're getting all the airdrops. We've had an airdrop meta already arrive on the scene here in December, in holiday season. And you just know that, you know, there's a bunch of layer twos and others that are going to launch their airdrop in January or at least Q one. And we're going to get the details to you as well as Liz Warren has some notifications for us. It is a bill called the anti digital asset money laundering bill. Something extremely disconnected from reality. Uh, we're going to talk to all you guys all about that and more. But first I want to talk about some of these fantastic sponsors that make this show possible.

B

David, tell me about airdrop. It feels like airdrop season. What do we got coming up?