<jupyter_start><jupyter_text>Trump Charges<jupyter_code># https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6222/criminal-charges-against-trump/
trump_charges = compare_metaculus_vs_polymarket('https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th',
                                                6222,
                                                actual=0)
trump_charges['data']
trump_charges['brier']
trump_charges['winnings']
plot_predictions(trump_charges, 'Criminal charges against Trump by 20 Feb?').show()<jupyter_output><empty_output><jupyter_text>GOP Win<jupyter_code># https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5734/gop-to-hold-senate-on-feb-1st-2021/
gop_senate = compare_metaculus_vs_polymarket('https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate',
                                             5734,
                                             actual=0)
gop_senate['data']
gop_senate['brier']
gop_senate['winnings']
plot_predictions(gop_senate, 'GOP Hold Senate for 2021?').show()<jupyter_output><empty_output><jupyter_text>Trump Pardon<jupyter_code># https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5685/will-donald-trump-attempt-to-pardon-himself/
trump_pardon = compare_metaculus_vs_polymarket('https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term',
                                               5685,
                                               actual=0)
trump_pardon['data']
trump_pardon['brier']
trump_pardon['winnings']
plot_predictions(trump_pardon, 'Trump self-pardon?').show()<jupyter_output><empty_output><jupyter_text>538 - Economist<jupyter_code># https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5503/comparing-538-and-economist-forecasts-in-2020/
economist_538 = compare_metaculus_vs_polymarket('https://polymarket.com/market/will-538-outperform-the-economist-in-forecasting-the-2020-presidential-election',
                                                5503,
                                                actual=0)
economist_538['data']
economist_538['brier']
economist_538['winnings']
plot_predictions(economist_538, '538 prez forecast beat Economist?').show()<jupyter_output><empty_output><jupyter_text>Biden in-person inauguration<jupyter_code>## https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6293/biden-in-person-inauguration/
biden_in_person = compare_metaculus_vs_polymarket('https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-officially-inaugurated-as-president-in-person-outside-the-us-capitol-on-january-20th-2021',
                                                  6293,
                                                  actual=1)
biden_in_person['data']
biden_in_person['brier']
biden_in_person['winnings']
plot_predictions(biden_in_person, 'Biden inaugurated in-person on 20 Jan 2021?').show()<jupyter_output><empty_output><jupyter_text>Trump at Biden's Inauguration<jupyter_code>## https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5825/trump-at-bidens-inauguration/
trump_attend = compare_metaculus_vs_polymarket('https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-attend-joe-biden-s-inauguration-ceremony-in-person',
                                               5825,
                                               actual=0)
trump_attend['data']
trump_attend['brier']
trump_attend['winnings']
plot_predictions(trump_attend, 'Trump attend Biden\'s inauguration?').show()<jupyter_output><empty_output><jupyter_text>Electoral Challenge<jupyter_code>## https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5844/electoral-college-results-challenged/
challenge = compare_metaculus_vs_polymarket('https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-electoral-certificates-be-formally-challenged-in-congress',
                                            5844,
                                            actual=1)
challenge['data']
challenge['brier']
challenge['winnings']
plot_predictions(challenge, 'Electoral college challenge?').show()<jupyter_output><empty_output><jupyter_text>Trump Convict<jupyter_code>## https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6303/trump-convicted-by-senate/
trump_convict = compare_metaculus_vs_polymarket('https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021',
                                                6303,
                                                actual=0)
trump_convict['data']
trump_convict['brier']
trump_convict['winnings']
plot_predictions(trump_convict, 'Senate convict Trump in 2021?').show()<jupyter_output><empty_output><jupyter_text>Tokyo Olympics<jupyter_code># https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed
# https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/<jupyter_output><empty_output><jupyter_text>Brier<jupyter_code>(challenge['brier'] + trump_attend['brier'] + biden_in_person['brier'] + economist_538['brier'] +
trump_pardon['brier'] + gop_senate['brier'] + trump_charges['brier'] + trump_convict['brier']) / 8
(challenge['winnings'] + trump_attend['winnings'] + biden_in_person['winnings'] + economist_538['winnings'] +
trump_pardon['winnings'] + gop_senate['winnings'] + trump_charges['winnings'] + trump_convict['winnings']) / 8<jupyter_output><empty_output>
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