<jupyter_start><jupyter_text>Load Data and Set Parameters<jupyter_code>import covid.models.SEIRD_variable_detection
import covid.models.SEIRD

data = util.load_data()
place = 'NY'


util.run_place(data, 
               place, 
               start='2020-03-15', 
               end='2020-04-27',
               T_future=8*7,
               model_abrv = "SEIRD",
               model_type = covid.models.SEIRD.SEIRD,
               num_warmup=100, 
               num_samples=100)
data = util.load_data()
place = 'NY'
util.gen_forecasts(data, 
                   place, 
                   start = '2020-03-15',
                   model_abrv = "SEIRD",
                   model_type=covid.models.SEIRD.SEIRD)
%debug

import covid.util as util
import covid.models.SEIRD_variable_detection

data = util.load_data()

## Validation: can only do cumulative for now...
start_eval = '2020-04-27'
_,m1_mae = util.score_forecats(start=start_eval,place='NY',data=data)

print (m1_mae)

err_plotm2,m2_mae = util.score_forecats(start=start_eval,place='NY',data=data,
                            model_abrv="SEIRD_variable_detection",
                             model=covid.models.SEIRD_variable_detection.SEIRD())

print (m2_mae)
plt.legend(["SEIRD","SEIRD Variable Detection"])
plt.show()
#plt.title(f"{place} MAE={mae:.2f}")
#plt.show()<jupyter_output>3383.4000651041665
486.171875
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