<commit_before>---
author: "<NAME>"
date: 2017-01-28T12:00:00+02:00
title: "H5N1 model helps predicting the spread of H5N8"
---

We evaluated the predictive capacity of our global H5N1 suitability model published a few month ago in [e-life](https://elifesciences.org/content/5/e19571), and based on HPAI H5N1 and H5Nx records of years 2006-2015 in its capacity to predict the current wave of HPAI H5N8 across Europe. 

On January 15th, we extracted all H5N8 HPAI cases from the [Empres-I](http://empres-i.fao.org) database. In the figure below, the wild bird cases (left) and the domestic bird cases (right) are showned over the H5N1 suitability map for Europe obtained with the first set of predictor variables, i.e. human population density, extensively and intensively raised chicken and duck density. As can be seen from the figures, many wild bird cases were observed in areas with a low predicted suitability (blue) and these did not lead to secundary outbreaks in domestic poultry. In contrast, the distributino of domestic cases appear to correspond quite strongly to areas with a high suitability. In other words, the virus was apparently introduced in many areas, but our model was apparently able to predict where it was able to persist. 

![H5N8 records and H5N1 suitability map](/images/h5n1mapeurope.png)
##### Distribution of H5N8 wild (left) and domestic (right) cases over the distributino of H5N1 suitability model from Dhingra *et al.* (2016)

In order to quantify this, we estimated the area under curve (AUC) in two separate ways. First by considering all pseudo-absences in Europe, and second by considering only pseudo-absences located within 150 km of any HPAI H5N8 wild bird case, as illustrated below.

![H5N8 wild bird records and ](/images/h5n8pa.png)
##### Distribution of pseudo-absences with a 150 km buffer around wild bird H5N8 cases

The AUC when considering all pseudo-absences or only pseudo-absences within 150 km of any wild bird cases were **0.803** and **0.855**, respectivly, which is comparable to the predictive power we had in the original model when evaluated through spatial cross-validation.

The figure below shows the suitabilty area predicted by the model in sub-saharan Africa, where it will inform surveillance and early detection. 

![H5N1 suitability model in Africa](/images/h5n1africa.png)
##### H5N1 suitability model from Dhingra *et al.* (2016) in sub-saharan Africa.

##### Reference
[Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation](https://elifesciences.org/content/5/e19571)
<NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME> and <NAME>.
*In "eLife"*, vol. 5, 2016.

<commit_msg>Update h5n8.md<commit_after>---
author: "<NAME>"
date: 2017-01-28T12:00:00+02:00
title: "H5N1 model helps predicting the spread of H5N8"
---

We evaluated the predictive capacity of our global H5N1 suitability model published a few month ago in [e-life](https://elifesciences.org/content/5/e19571), and based on HPAI H5N1 and H5Nx records of years 2006-2015 in its capacity to predict the current wave of HPAI H5N8 across Europe. 

On January 15th, we extracted all H5N8 HPAI cases from the [Empres-I](http://empres-i.fao.org) database. In the figure below, the wild bird cases (left) and the domestic bird cases (right) are showned over the H5N1 suitability map for Europe obtained with the first set of predictor variables, i.e. human population density, extensively and intensively raised chicken and duck density. As can be seen from the figures, many wild bird cases were observed in areas with a low predicted suitability (blue) and these did not lead to secundary outbreaks in domestic poultry. In contrast, the distributino of domestic cases appear to correspond quite strongly to areas with a high suitability. In other words, the virus was apparently introduced in many areas, but our model was apparently able to predict where it was able to persist. 


![H5N8 records and H5N1 suitability map](/images/h5n1mapeurope.png)
##### Distribution of H5N8 wild (left) and domestic (right) cases over the distributino of H5N1 suitability model from Dhingra *et al.* (2016)

In order to quantify this, we estimated the area under curve (AUC) in two separate ways. First by considering all pseudo-absences in Europe, and second by considering only pseudo-absences located within 150 km of any HPAI H5N8 wild bird case, as illustrated below.


![H5N8 wild bird records and ](/images/h5n8pa.png)
##### Distribution of pseudo-absences with a 150 km buffer around wild bird H5N8 cases


The AUC when considering all pseudo-absences (all green dots) or only pseudo-absences within 150 km of any wild bird (green dots within the yellow buffer) cases were **0.803** and **0.855**, respectively, which is comparable to the predictive power we had in the original model when evaluated through spatial cross-validation. The figure below shows the suitabilty area predicted by the model in sub-saharan Africa, where it will inform surveillance and early detection. 

![H5N1 suitability model in Africa](/images/h5n1africa.png)
##### H5N1 suitability model from Dhingra *et al.* (2016) in sub-saharan Africa.


### Reference
[Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation](https://elifesciences.org/content/5/e19571)
<NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME>, <NAME> and <NAME>.
*In "eLife"*, vol. 5, 2016.


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