<commit_before>---
title: About
keywords: about
last_updated: September 7, 2017
tags:
summary: Our overall goal is to provide strong, data-driven predictions of U.S. livestock shipments and simulations of livestock disease and to characterize uncertainty in these predictions in order to support decision-making in both response and planning contexts.  
sidebar: about
permalink: about.html
folder: pages
toc: false
---

# Objectives

The U.S. Animal Movement Model (USAMM) and Disease Outbreak Simulation (USDOS) were developed through an international collaboration with funding from the United States Department of Agriculture and the Department of Homeland Security.

Because the United States does not track individual livestock movements, there is a need to characterize livestock shipments at the national scale in the U.S. USAMM provides estimates of the number of cattle shipments between any two counties in the contiguous United States and includes estimates of uncertainty in the predictions. Current work will enhance USAMM predictions to include the size of cattle shipments and additional information on the types and sizes of premises involved in shipping.
USDOS is a national scale, premises-level simulation model that uses original algorithms to produce outputs very quickly even at large spatial scales. USDOS incorporates both local and long range transmission together with multiple control options. USDOS has relatively few parameters so that sensitivity of model outputs to changes in parameters can be fully investigated. The model can run using demographic information from any country together with appropriate shipping data and/or local spread transmission. Current work will incorporate a within-herd component to USDOS and allow investigation of slower-spreading disease outbreaks.

This web site is planned for use by both management and field personnel and disease modelers. This web site contains high-level descriptions of project deliverables, visualization tools, downloadable model predictions that can be ported into users own tools/systems, supporting publications with technical details, freely available downloadable code and user-guides.



# Philosophy

Our overall modeling philosophy has three main components:

1. Strongly data-based modeling: Increases the relevance of the models to applied questions
2. Close working relationship with state and government agencies: Informs model structures and capabilities to handle realistic scenarios
3. Parsimonious modeling choices whenever possible: Enhances validation and sensitivity analysis by using fewer, better-informed parameters, optimizes tradeoffs among applied needs, available data and modeling techniques.


# People

![group picture](images/GroupPhoto_March19.jpg)

| <img src = "images/colleen-new.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Professor <br/> Affiliations: Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University <br/> Role: Principal Investigator <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL>  |

| <img src = "images/uno.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Professor <br/> Affiliations: Theoretical Biology, Linköping University <br/> Role: Principal Investigator <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/mtildesley.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Professor <br/> Affiliations: University of Warwick <br/> Role: Principal Investigator <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/TomLindstrom.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Associate Professor <br/> Affiliations: Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology/Division of Theoretical Biology. Linköping University <br/> Role: Principal Investigator <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/LindsayBeckJohnson.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Research Scientist II <br/> Affiliations: Colorado State University, Department of Biology <br/> Role: Principal Investigator <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/Brommesson.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: PhD Student <br/> Affiliations: Linköping University <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/buhnerkempe.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Research Assistant Professor <br/> Affiliations: Southern Illinois University School of Medicine <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/fullsizeoutput_e.jpeg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Associate Professor  <br/> Affiliations: University of Warwick, School of Life Sciences  <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/lifesci/people/egorsich/ |

| <img src = "images/dangrear.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Wildlife Disease Ecologist <br/> Affiliations: USGS National Wildlife Health Center <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/daniel-a-grear |

| <img src = "images/clay.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Mathematical Statistician <br/> Affiliations: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service <br/> Role: Agency Technical Expert <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/ryan-miller.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** -  <br/> Title: Senior Ecologist <br/> Affiliations: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service <br/> Role: Agency Lead <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/Amanda.png" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** -  <br/> Title: Research Fellow <br/> Affiliations: Equations of Disease C.I.C. <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> www.equationsofdisease.com |

| <img src = "images/0.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Research Associate <br/> Affiliations: Colorado State University, Department of Biology <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/kowers_nov2021.jpg.JPG" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Public Health Emergency Preparedness Surveillance Program Manager <br/> Affiliations: New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/portacci.png" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Veterinary Epidemiologist <br/> Affiliations: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service <br/> Role: Agency Lead <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/Stefan_Sellman.png" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Postdoctoral Researcher <br/> Affiliations: Linköping University and University of Warwick <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/kim.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Lead Data Scientist for the Chief Data Officer <br/> Affiliations: USDA Office of the Chief Information Officer <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: http://www.kimtsao.com |

| <img src = "images/werkman.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** -  <br/> Title: Research Associate <br/> Affiliations: Imperial College London <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: [Personal Website](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/m.werkman) |

# Directions

USAMM - Current work will enhance USAMM predictions to include the size of cattle shipments and additional information on the types and sizes of premises involved in shipping.  We are simultaneously developing USAMM-Swine to predict swine shipments at the U.S. national scale from Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection.  We are also working to transition USAMM to USDA for their direct use.  Future directions will include also developing USAMM-Swine that incorporates swine shipments from commuter agreement data.<commit_msg>Updating Deedra and Katie P<commit_after>---
title: About
keywords: about
last_updated: September 7, 2017
tags:
summary: Our overall goal is to provide strong, data-driven predictions of U.S. livestock shipments and simulations of livestock disease and to characterize uncertainty in these predictions in order to support decision-making in both response and planning contexts.  
sidebar: about
permalink: about.html
folder: pages
toc: false
---

# Objectives

The U.S. Animal Movement Model (USAMM) and Disease Outbreak Simulation (USDOS) were developed through an international collaboration with funding from the United States Department of Agriculture and the Department of Homeland Security.

Because the United States does not track individual livestock movements, there is a need to characterize livestock shipments at the national scale in the U.S. USAMM provides estimates of the number of cattle shipments between any two counties in the contiguous United States and includes estimates of uncertainty in the predictions. Current work will enhance USAMM predictions to include the size of cattle shipments and additional information on the types and sizes of premises involved in shipping.
USDOS is a national scale, premises-level simulation model that uses original algorithms to produce outputs very quickly even at large spatial scales. USDOS incorporates both local and long range transmission together with multiple control options. USDOS has relatively few parameters so that sensitivity of model outputs to changes in parameters can be fully investigated. The model can run using demographic information from any country together with appropriate shipping data and/or local spread transmission. Current work will incorporate a within-herd component to USDOS and allow investigation of slower-spreading disease outbreaks.

This web site is planned for use by both management and field personnel and disease modelers. This web site contains high-level descriptions of project deliverables, visualization tools, downloadable model predictions that can be ported into users own tools/systems, supporting publications with technical details, freely available downloadable code and user-guides.



# Philosophy

Our overall modeling philosophy has three main components:

1. Strongly data-based modeling: Increases the relevance of the models to applied questions
2. Close working relationship with state and government agencies: Informs model structures and capabilities to handle realistic scenarios
3. Parsimonious modeling choices whenever possible: Enhances validation and sensitivity analysis by using fewer, better-informed parameters, optimizes tradeoffs among applied needs, available data and modeling techniques.


# People

![group picture](images/GroupPhoto_March19.jpg)

| <img src = "images/colleen-new.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Professor <br/> Affiliations: Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University <br/> Role: Principal Investigator <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL>  |

| <img src = "images/uno.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Professor <br/> Affiliations: Theoretical Biology, Linköping University <br/> Role: Principal Investigator <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/mtildesley.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Professor <br/> Affiliations: University of Warwick <br/> Role: Principal Investigator <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/TomLindstrom.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Associate Professor <br/> Affiliations: Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology/Division of Theoretical Biology. Linköping University <br/> Role: Principal Investigator <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/LindsayBeckJohnson.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Research Scientist II <br/> Affiliations: Colorado State University, Department of Biology <br/> Role: Principal Investigator <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/Brommesson.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: PhD Student <br/> Affiliations: Linköping University <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/buhnerkempe.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Research Assistant Professor <br/> Affiliations: Southern Illinois University School of Medicine <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/fullsizeoutput_e.jpeg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Associate Professor  <br/> Affiliations: University of Warwick, School of Life Sciences  <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/lifesci/people/egorsich/ |

| <img src = "images/dangrear.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Wildlife Disease Ecologist <br/> Affiliations: USGS National Wildlife Health Center <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/daniel-a-grear |

| <img src = "images/clay.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Mathematical Statistician <br/> Affiliations: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service <br/> Role: Agency Technical Expert <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/ryan-miller.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** -  <br/> Title: Senior Ecologist <br/> Affiliations: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service <br/> Role: Agency Lead <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/Amanda.png" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** -  <br/> Title: Research Fellow <br/> Affiliations: Equations of Disease C.I.C. <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL>sofdisease.com www.equationsofdisease.com |

| <img src = "images/0.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Biological Science Information Specialist <br/> Affiliations: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/kowers_nov2021.jpg.JPG" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Public Health Emergency Preparedness Surveillance Program Manager <br/> Affiliations: New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/katieportacci_headshotupdate1.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Veterinary Epidemiologist <br/> Affiliations: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service <br/> Role: Agency Lead <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/Stefan_Sellman.png" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Postdoctoral Researcher <br/> Affiliations: Linköping University and University of Warwick <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: <EMAIL> |

| <img src = "images/kim.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** - <br/> Title: Lead Data Scientist for the Chief Data Officer <br/> Affiliations: USDA Office of the Chief Information Officer <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: http://www.kimtsao.com |

| <img src = "images/werkman.jpg" style = "width:200px"> | **<NAME>** -  <br/> Title: Research Associate <br/> Affiliations: Imperial College London <br/> Role: Senior Personnel <br/> Contact info: [Personal Website](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/m.werkman) |

# Directions

USAMM - Current work will enhance USAMM predictions to include the size of cattle shipments and additional information on the types and sizes of premises involved in shipping.  We are simultaneously developing USAMM-Swine to predict swine shipments at the U.S. national scale from Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection.  We are also working to transition USAMM to USDA for their direct use.  Future directions will include also developing USAMM-Swine that incorporates swine shipments from commuter agreement data.
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