Let f be a uniformly-randomly chosen mapping from the numbers 1..N to the numbers 1..N (note: not necessarily a permutation of 1..N; the mapping could produce a number in more than one way or not at all). At some point, the sequence 1, f(1), f(f(1))... will contain a repetition, a number that occurring for the second time in the sequence.



Task

Write a program or a script that estimates, for each N, the average length until the first such repetition.

Also calculate this expected length using an analytical formula, and optionally compare the simulated result with the theoretical one.



This problem comes from the end of Donald Knuth's Christmas tree lecture 2011.

Example of expected output:

 N    average    analytical    (error)
===  =========  ============  =========
  1     1.0000        1.0000  (  0.00%)
  2     1.4992        1.5000  (  0.05%)
  3     1.8784        1.8889  (  0.56%)
  4     2.2316        2.2188  (  0.58%)
  5     2.4982        2.5104  (  0.49%)
  6     2.7897        2.7747  (  0.54%)
  7     3.0153        3.0181  (  0.09%)
  8     3.2429        3.2450  (  0.07%)
  9     3.4536        3.4583  (  0.14%)
 10     3.6649        3.6602  (  0.13%)
 11     3.8091        3.8524  (  1.12%)
 12     3.9986        4.0361  (  0.93%)
 13     4.2074        4.2123  (  0.12%)
 14     4.3711        4.3820  (  0.25%)
 15     4.5275        4.5458  (  0.40%)
 16     4.6755        4.7043  (  0.61%)
 17     4.8877        4.8579  (  0.61%)
 18     4.9951        5.0071  (  0.24%)
 19     5.1312        5.1522  (  0.41%)
 20     5.2699        5.2936  (  0.45%)


constant MAX = 20,
         ITER = 1000000
 
function expected(integer n)
atom sum = 0
    for i=1 to n do
        sum += factorial(n) / power(n,i) / factorial(n-i)
    end for
    return sum
end function
 
function test(integer n)
integer count = 0, x, bits
    for i=1 to ITER do
        x = 1
        bits = 0
        while not and_bits(bits,x) do
            count += 1
            bits = or_bits(bits,x)
            x = power(2,rand(n)-1)
        end while
    end for
    return count/ITER
end function
 
atom av, ex
    puts(1," n     avg.     exp.  (error%)\n");
    puts(1,"==   ======   ======  ========\n");
    for n=1 to MAX do
        av = test(n)
        ex = expected(n)
        printf(1,"%2d %8.4f %8.4f  (%5.3f%%)\n", {n,av,ex,abs(1-av/ex)*100})
    end for
