Truly the other side of the world
Natalie Solent (Essex) · Aus/NZ affairs · Media & Journalism
"More than 60% of voters approve of major parties' performance" reports today's Guardian.
Well, actually tomorrow's Guardian, because it's the Australian edition. I saw that headline and thought I had slipped into a parallel universe. A happier one:
While national politics frets about its trust crisis, the bulk of Australian voters appear reasonably sanguine with both of the major parties five months on from the federal election, with more than 60% of the Guardian Essential sample rating the performance of the Coalition and Labor as excellent, good or fair.
Such contentment is strange to see when one considers how alienating and painful the Guardian commentariat found Scott Morrison's surprise election victory in May:
The woman checking my name off the list around 8pm is angry and crying and saying, "I don't get it, we went in with policies, they went in with nothing."
Inside it is awful. This is meant to be Bill Shorten's victory party, but the energy is heavy – as if some trauma had taken place and a great shock was being absorbed. Inside no one is talking, and if they are, it is quietly and involves references to franking credits.
I do not post Brigid Delaney's article merely to mock. I could relate to her sense of shock at discovering that half your country does not, after all, broadly share your values that she describes in the following passage:
In 2016 Britain voted for Brexit and America for Trump. In those countries, part of the national trauma was the realisation that one part of the country was so ill-acquainted with the other part. Citizens stopped knowing each other. The polls got it wrong, the media got it wrong, people were so siloed in their own tribes and social media bubbles that the other side winning felt like a profound shock. Like it wasn't meant to happen. The falcon couldn't hear the falconer and all that. And in those countries, it's only gotten worse. Part of the damage in the years since has been the hardening of the lines and divisions between these tribes, between red and blue.
(Though in my case the sense of shock came from realising just how many people support a limited democracy like that of Iran, in which one may only vote for options within a permitted range.)
And yet five months after that day when the chasm opened, here we are: "more than 60% of the Guardian Essential sample rating the performance of the Coalition and Labor as excellent, good or fair". The falcon hears the falconer just fine, thank you and the shape with the lion body and the head of a man and a gaze blank and pitiless as the sun is snuggled up next to the rough beast and snoring gently.
What is Scott Morrison doing right?
October 15th, 2019 | 15 comments - (Comments are closed)
What did Trump just do in Syria?
Brian Micklethwait (London) · Media & Journalism · Middle East & Islamic · Military affairs · North American affairs
The New York Times is scathing about President Trump's decision to pull US troops out of Syria and let the Turks invade:
President Trump's acquiescence to Turkey's move to send troops deep inside Syrian territory has in only one week's time turned into a bloody carnage, forced the abandonment of a successful five-year-long American project to keep the peace on a volatile border, and given an unanticipated victory to four American adversaries: Russia, Iran, the Syrian government and the Islamic State.
Rarely has a presidential decision resulted so immediately in what his own party leaders have described as disastrous consequences for American allies and interests. How this decision happened — springing from an "off-script moment" with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, in the words of a senior American diplomat — likely will be debated for years by historians, Middle East experts and conspiracy theorists.
But this much already is clear: Mr. Trump ignored months of warnings from his advisers about what calamities likely would ensue if he followed his instincts to pull back from Syria and abandon America's longtime allies, the Kurds. He had no Plan B, other than to leave. The only surprise is how swiftly it all collapsed around the president and his depleted, inexperienced foreign policy team.
That sounds very bad to me. I support two entities in the Middle East (and am deeply suspicious of all other entities): Israel, and the Kurds. Has Trump just shafted the Kurds? If the above is right, it would seem so.
I seem vaguely to recall being told that "the Kurds" come in two varieties. There are the Bad Kurds who are Marxist idiots, and who are fighting Turkey (also bad) rather idiotically. And then there are the Good Kurds, further east, who are fighting other religious fundamentalists and who are far more sensible. That could be drivel, either because it was drivel to start with or because I have remembered it all wrong and turned it into drivel. But if not drivel, might something like that have a bearing on what Trump has just done? Or on what he thinks he has done?
My earlier posting re the Kurds was an exercise in libertarian fundamentalism. Now I am asking about the rights and wrongs of an actual foreign policy decision, in an imperfect world, but a world capable of being made horribly worse. It's one thing to regret a bad situation, caused by previous bad decisions made earlier, by others. It's quite another to make that situation far worse, with yet another bad decision, to just turn the clock back, come what may, in circumstances where it actually can't be turned back. "You wouldn't start from here? Welcome to the world, Mr President. Here is where you now are and you must play the ball where it now lies, rather than from where you say you would have landed it." Etcetera.
To put all this another way, is Trump as "impulsive" as his critics have long been saying? Until now, he has impressed me a lot. His "impulses" have seemed, on the whole, rather smart. He has, as we often like to say here, at least been making all the right enemies. But as of now, this Syria decision seems dumb. So, is the NYT just doing fake news, again? If not, can what Trump just did be persuasively defended?
Comments please.
October 14th, 2019 | 106 comments - (Comments are closed)
President Bush will soon bring Gilead to America!
Natalie Solent (Essex) · Arts & Entertainment · Historical views · Media & Journalism · North American affairs · Religion · Science Fiction & Fantasy
Some time ago a striking article by Fiona Maddocks appeared in the London Evening Standard. The link that Google gives you to the Evening Standard's own site is dead, but I found a working one on Questia. Here it is:
A Twist in the Tale; Margaret Atwood Is Dreading the UK Premiere of the Opera of Her Novel the Handmaid's Tale – It Will Be a Shocking Theatrical Experience
THE question all readers of The Handmaid's Tale want to ask its Canadian author, Margaret Atwood, is: "How did you know?" Her 1986 best seller, set in a futuristic totalitarian regime called the Republic of Gilead, formerly the United States, has chilling prescience: Christian fundamentalists have seized control and imposed repressive laws, brainwashing women and depriving them of all the rights they have spent the past 1,000 years securing – education, property, freedom to give birth when and via whom they choose.
(I commented at the time, "I don't know why poor old Dubya does hold off from imprisoning all the women and depriving them of their names so that the top men's personal concubines are called "ofdonald", "ofjohn" and "ofdubya", according to the system described in the book. That's obviously what he wants, as proven by the fact that he sometimes goes to breakfast prayer meetings, and it's not like he gets any credit for restraint.")
The book, already translated into 35 languages and a regular A-level and university set text, was turned into a film starring Natasha Richardson, with a script by Harold Pinter. Tonight an operatic version of this dark fable, by the Danish composer Poul Ruders and British librettist Paul Bentley, receives its first UK performance at the Coliseum, having been premiered to rapturous reviews in Copenhagen three years ago.
To underline contemporary parallels, English National Opera's publicity material shows a woman, naked and heavily pregnant, prone on an unfurled Stars and Stripes, observed by a helmeted soldier.
"There's nothing new in The Handmaid's Tale," Atwood says. "One of my rules was that I couldn't put anything into the novel that human beings hadn't actually done. Stories exist within the world. They're not on some other planet called literature or the moon." Small, droll, benignly austere, Atwood hardly strikes you as a Cassandrine figure. Only her startling eyes, clear blue, slightly exotic and almond shaped, hint at some farseeing otherness.
The general critical response was 'what a jolly good yarn', and that was the end of the matter. You'd had Oliver Cromwell and religious war. You wouldn't expect it to happen again. In Canada, instead, people asked, 'Could it happen here?'
"Well, no, probably not, because of Canada's history and its disparate elements. Only in America did people ask, in utter seriousness, 'How long have we got?' They realised that they were closest of all to the real thing, especially compared to Europe, which is now so much more secular a place than the States.
"How long did they have?" asks the narrator, in an epilogue written long after the events described. Since that article was dated April 3rd 2003 and the Gileadification of America is not yet upon us we can safely answer "a minimum of 16 years, 5 months and 8 days". But do not be deceived. Gilead is coming. Real soon now.
"The Handmaid's Tale increasingly rings true", writes Alice Thomson in today's Times.
They walked, heads bowed under their white bonnets, red capes trailing along Piccadilly, past men in Lycra ogling on their bikes and into Waterstones. "Don't let the bastards grind you down," women shouted at the fertile handmaids as they joined the midnight celebrations for the publication of Margaret Atwood's The Testaments. There were green drinks and talks on how to embroider feminist wall hangings. Then the 79-year-old prophet spoke, warning that her characters had a new resonance in her dystopian sequel because of threats to women's rights.
She wasn't just talking about President Trump boasting of grabbing women "by the pussy" and curtailing their reproductive rights but about any country trying to force women back into the "unnaturally cramped spaces" from which they had so recently emerged.
We pretend that women's rights are still progressing, with more jobs for the girls and in some areas more equal pay, but in many ways Britain feels increasingly like Atwood's theocracy of Gilead where women are expected to know how to cook a quiche, the man is master and only the sisterhood saves them. #Silenced, which started trending yesterday, seems to be about so much more than the proroguing of parliament: it's about vulnerable groups, women, gays and ethnic minorities once more feeling excluded from the hierarchy. "Are we to be silenced like little mice," as the handmaid Offred says in Atwood's novel.
The prime minister thinks nothing of using femininity as an insult, calling Jeremy Corbyn "a great big girl's blouse", associating masculinity with power. The journalist William Cash wrote an article this week about having a relationship with a former girlfriend of Boris Johnson as though she were some vassal, and volunteering to bring his illegitimate child up for him. David Cameron's "calm down dear" now seems relatively benign.
Good, so you won't mind if I say "Calm down dear" to you.
September 11th, 2019 | 25 comments - (Comments are closed)
Samizdata Illuminatus (Arkham, Massachusetts) · Environment · Latin American Affairs · Media & Journalism · Slogans & Quotations
It is untrue that the fires are historically huge or unprecedented. NASA says the Amazon fires are 'slightly below average this year'. Many are pointing out that we are witnessing the highest number of fires in the Amazon for seven years. But as meteorologist Jesse Ferrell reports, prior to 2012 there were many years in which the Amazon had worse fires than this year's: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2010. As Ferrell says, there are always fires on Earth: 'Thousands of fires are continually burning across the Earth every day of every year, and they always have.' The idea that what is currently happening in the Amazon is shockingly unusual or apocalyptic or proof of man's fascistic disdain for his environment is an entirely politicised interpretation of a perfectly normal event.
– Brendan O'Neill
August 30th, 2019 | 7 comments - (Comments are closed)
How we are saved from limiting ourselves
Natalie Solent (Essex) · Arts & Entertainment · Civil liberty & Regulation · Deleted by the PC Media · Economics, Business & Globalization · Media & Journalism · UK affairs
"First ads banned for contravening UK gender stereotyping rules", reported the Guardian some days ago.
Two television ads, one featuring new dads bungling comically while looking after their babies and the other a woman sitting next to a pram, have become the first to be banned under new rules designed to reduce gender stereotyping.
The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) banned the ads for Philadelphia cream cheese and Volkswagen, following complaints from the public that they perpetuated harmful stereotypes.
The new rules, introduced at the beginning of the year, ban the depiction of men and women engaged in gender-stereotypical activities to help stop "limiting how people see themselves and how others see them and the life decisions they take".
… by limiting what they are permitted to see and making their life decisions for them.
August 23rd, 2019 | 39 comments - (Comments are closed)
Ooh, can I be poor too?
Natalie Solent (Essex) · Economics, Business & Globalization · Media & Journalism · Mindless "Inequality" Blather · UK affairs
The gullible Metro freesheet claims that 14,300,000 people in Britain are living in poverty, quoting something called the Social Metrics Commission.
The current population of the UK is 66.87 million. According to the Office for National Statistics Labour market overview for July 2019, 32.75 million people aged 16 years and over are in employment, 354,000 more than for a year earlier. The unemployment rate is lower than at any time since 1974. I have no doubt that poverty still exists but this claim is not credible.
July 29th, 2019 | 52 comments - (Comments are closed)
How to hand in your resignation
Natalie Solent (Essex) · How very odd! · Humour · Internet · Media & Journalism · Self defence & Security · Sui generis · UK affairs
I thought about putting this in The Great Realignment, but the link to politics is slight. This is more about fantasy fulfilment. Have you ever dreamed of telling a bad boss what you think of him? Have you ever dreamed of telling the world what you think of your bad boss, shortly before making him your ex-boss? Meet Gareth Arnold, who until today seems to have handled the Twitter account for Jared O'Mara MP, regarded by all sides as the most useless MP in Parliament today. Actually as of now (20:36 BST) Mr Arnold still is handling Mr O'Mara's account but Mr O'Mara may not be entirely happy with that.
The first indication that something was up came at 8:03. A tweet allegedly from Mr O'Mara said,
Jared O'Mara
@jaredomaramp
Comms Team signing off… forever: Jared, you are the most disgustingly morally bankrupt person I have ever had the displeasure of working with. You do not care about your constituents. You do not care about anyone but yourself.
Thick and fast they followed:
I cannot and will not defend you and your vile, inexcusable contempt for the people who voted you in. You selfish, degenerate prick.
My fear is that now (as I quit) the rest of the staff will leave and once again you will close your office and stop helping anyone but still take your wages until you have the decency to call a byelection.
Leaving constituents desperate for representation again. No matter if they are having their homes taken away, their liberaties disgraced or being deported because of your inaction.
Sheffield Hallam deserves so much better than you. You have wasted opportunities which people dare not to even dream of.
Consider this my resignation.
Gareth Arnold
– @garetharnolduk
"GnasherJew" has archived the thread to keep it for posterity.
P.S. In other news, Boris Johnson will be made PM tomorrow.
July 23rd, 2019 | 15 comments - (Comments are closed)
There is nothing new under the sun
Natalie Solent (Essex) · Historical views · Media & Journalism · North American affairs · Religion · Self ownership · UK affairs
"What has been will be again," as it says in Ecclesiastes, "what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun."
Yesterday – to my shame I did not spot it until today – the Times reprinted a letter to the editor that was a century old to the day. I wish I could say that it was merely of historical interest.
From The Times July 15, 1919
To the Editor of The Times
Sir, Will you permit an elderly man, who is not a politician nor a public character, but merely an individual among millions of honest, sober persons whose liberty is attacked by a moral tyranny, to state an opinion with regard to the crusade against moderate drinkers? It is not needed even in the cause of morality. When I was a child excess in drinking was patent in every class of society. Now, in my wide circle, I do not know of one man or woman who is ever seen "under the influence of liquor". Why not leave the process of moderation, so marked within 60 years, to pursue its normal course? It is untrue to say that a reasonable use of alcohol is injurious to mind, body or morality. My father, whose life was one of intense intellectual application, and who died from an accident in his 79th year, was the most rigidly conscientious evangelical I have ever known. He would have been astonished to learn that his claret and water at his midday meal, and his glass of Constantia at bedtime, were either sinful in themselves or provocative to sin in others.
There is no blessing upon those who invent offences for the pleasure of giving pain and who lay burdens on the liberty of others. We have seen attempts by the fantastically righteous to condemn those who eat meat, who go to see plays, who take walks on Sundays. The campaign against the sober use of wine and beer is on a footing with these efforts, and should be treated as they have been. Already tobacco is being forbidden to the clergy! The fact that Americans are leading the campaign should be regarded with alarm. We do not express an opinion, much less organize propaganda, against "dryness" in the United States. It is not for us to interfere in their domestic business. If Englishmen went round America urging Americans to defy their own laws and revolt against their customs, we should be very properly indignant. Let crusading Americans be taught the same reticence.
The propagandist teetotaler is active and unscrupulous. He fights with all weapons, whether they are clean or no. We must resist, without fear of consequences, the cruel and ignorant fanaticism of these apostles.
I am, Sir, your obedient servant,
EDMUND GOSSE
Imagine there's no countries
Natalie Solent (Essex) · Chinese affairs · Civil liberty & Regulation · International affairs · Media & Journalism
It isn't hard to do
And no religion, too
You, you may say I'm a dreamer
I hope someday you will join us
– Imagine, John Lennon
The Times editorial I am about to quote, like John Lennon's much-loved song, begins with the word "Imagine". It describes a little incident, seemingly unimportant to all but those most directly affected, that took in the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu. At least, Vanuatu calls itself a nation, and it has a flag and a seat at the UN and all the paraphernalia of a nation, but it seems to have decided that it no longer wishes to function as a separate state. A little incident that took place there four days ago gives a preview of what Lennon's dream of a world where borders did not matter would really be like.
Imagine for a moment that last Friday a charter flight full of police officers from a foreign power landed at Heathrow. Picture those officers then driving to a series of addresses, identifying four British and two foreign citizens and then, declining to tell British authorities on what grounds they were taking this action, detaining them and forcing them on board the aircraft, which then took off. What might we call such behaviour?
This exact scenario was played out just before the weekend in the South Pacific republic of Vanuatu. Vanuatu might be the answer to a quiz question, but though it has a population the size of Hull it is also an independent sovereign country and a democracy. Nevertheless, last week the Chinese government sent officials to Vanuatu and arrested five men and one woman, all of Chinese ethnicity.
That the republic's government was complicit in these arrests makes the position more and not less worrying. Before the Chinese police arrived it is reported that the six had been held without charge for several days on the premises of a Chinese company. Though the Chinese informed the government that their officers possessed Chinese arrest warrants, neither the islanders nor anyone else has been told what the charges actually are. In spite of this, local police assisted with the accompanying of the detained individuals to the China-bound aircraft.
Almost incredibly the internal affairs minister of Vanuatu has told the press that the reason why the six detainees did not appear before a Vanuatu judge was that they were not charged with any crime in the territory. Presumably if they had been then they would have had their day in court. As it is the minister has, in effect, connived at an abduction of his own citizens by a foreign power almost certainly in contravention of his country's laws.
The South China Morning Post report on the same story is quite bold to make an explicit link to the protests in Hong Kong against the proposed bill allowing extradition to mainland China, given that the newspaper has itself been subject to pressure from Beijing.
Why is Russia trying to influence other countries' elections by means of targeted advertising wrong?
Natalie Solent (Essex) · European Union · International affairs · Internet · Media & Journalism · Russia · Science & Technology · UK affairs
"Nick Clegg denies misuse of Facebook influenced Brexit vote", reports the Guardian.
Umm, okay. A lot of people are saying "Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?".
Sir Nick Clegg, for those readers who have forgotten this rather forgettable chap, used to be leader of the Liberal Democrats and was Deputy Prime Minister for a while, back when the Lib Dems were in coalition with the Conservatives. He lost his seat in the 2017 election, which made him sad. Then he got a "communications" job with Facebook at a salary that probably made him feel better.
So nine years after Cleggmania, here he is back on our TV screens again. The Times report on the same story says,
The former Liberal Democrat leader said that social media could not be blamed for the vote to leave the European Union.
He said: "Much though I understand why people want to reduce that eruption in British politics to some kind of plot or conspiracy — or some use of new social media through opaque means — I'm afraid the roots to British Euroscepticism go very, very deep."
Sir Nick added: "Yes, Facebook has a heavy responsibility to protect the integrity of elections from outside interference. I also think we have a duty to explain fact from some of the allegations that have been made."
Calling for greater regulation of the internet, he said: "We forget that though these companies are huge and affect every aspect of our lives — our social lives, our business lives — nonetheless it has all happened in such a short period of time.
It is no surprise to find Nick Clegg "calling for "greater regulation of the internet". Not only was more regulation of corporations his schtick when he was a politico, it also suits his current employers very well. Facebook can buy another twenty floors of lawyers whenever it needs them; struggling new startups cannot.
But to hear such a lifelong Europhile admit that the roots of British Euroscepticism go deep was a surprise. He is right. Russia's puny efforts to interfere in the EU referendum were the equivalent of the eternally slandered King Canute calling the tide forward.
But in all this debate about how effective or ineffective Russia's "outside interference" in the referendum was I have not yet heard a convincing explanation of what exactly is wrong with "outside interference" anyway.
I need not list the real crimes – waging unjust wars, murders, domestic repression – that can be laid at Putin's door. On an infinitely smaller scale, making use of harvested data that people did not agree to make available is a bad if commonplace thing. But what is bad in principle about Russia trying to persuade British people to vote a particular way by advertising? Where did this idea come from that only British ideas are allowed to enter British brains during an election or referendum campaign? In a democracy you are allowed to vote on any criteria you like. You can vote for a candidate because you carefully researched his or her voting record and found that it best aligned with your political beliefs, or because your family has always voted for the Reds or the Blues, or because you think the candidate has nice eyes, or because your imam told you which way to vote, or because Vladimir Putin did. They all count equally. If we were to operate a system of Juche when it comes to political thought, would that not also exclude political ideas originating in the European Union?
June 24th, 2019 | 19 comments - (Comments are closed)
The choice before us
Natalie Solent (Essex) · Media & Journalism · Privacy & Panopticon · UK affairs
The weekend papers have been dominated by the story of how Boris Johnson and his partner had a screaming row. Their neighbours called the police (defensible, possibly admirable), recorded the row (defensible – it might be required for evidence later)… and sold the recording to the Guardian.
The Times reports,
Revealed — the neighbours who taped Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds's quarrel
The neighbours who called police about a row between Boris Johnson and his partner are Tom Penn and Eve Leigh, a left-wing dramatist who boasted only a few days before that she had "given the finger" to the former foreign secretary.
Penn, who broke cover after questions from The Sunday Times, voted against Brexit but insisted last night that he and his wife had not acted because of politics. He said they felt "frightened and concerned for the welfare of those involved". Johnson's partner, Carrie Symonds, was heard screaming, "Get off me" and "Get out of my flat."
Penn said: "With my wife, [I] agreed that we should check on our neighbours. I knocked three times at their front door, but there was no response. I went back upstairs into my flat, and we agreed that we should call the police."
However, he admitted that even after officers called back "to let us know that nobody was harmed", the couple decided to pass a recording they had made of the incident to The Guardian newspaper.
Penn said: "I felt that it was of important public interest. I believe it is reasonable for someone who is likely to become our next prime minister to be held accountable for all of their words, actions, and behaviours."
In the Times comments to this story "savetheplanet" said,
Leaving aside the rights and wrongs.
I'm being offered a world run by Boris (fortunately lazy and delegates) or Corbyn and folk like Tom and Eve .
Not a great choice but Logic says Boris is the lesser of those evils.
June 23rd, 2019 | 27 comments - (Comments are closed)
Katie Jones is the face of the future
Natalie Solent (Essex) · Internet · Media & Journalism · Russia · Science & Technology · Self defence & Security · Sui generis
"That LinkedIn connection could be a spy using a fake, AI-generated face", warns Raphael Satter of the Associated Press in the Tampa Bay Times.
LONDON — Katie Jones sure seemed plugged into the Washington's political scene. The 30-something redhead boasted a job at a top think tank and a who's-who network of pundits and experts, from the centrist Brookings Institution to the right-wing Heritage Foundation. She was connected to a deputy assistant secretary of state, a senior aide to a senator and the economist Paul Winfree, who is being considered for a seat on the Federal Reserve.
But Katie Jones doesn't exist, the Associated Press has determined. Instead, the persona was part of a vast army of phantom profiles lurking on the professional networking site LinkedIn.
So what's new? Haven't the Russkies been stealing people's photos for years and using them to illustrate fake profiles on sites like LinkedIn? They have, but on this occasion it seems that the one thing of which they were not guilty was identity theft:
Several experts contacted by the Associated Press said Jones' profile picture appeared to have been created by a computer program.
"I'm convinced that it's a fake face," said Mario Klingemann, a German artist who has been experimenting for years with artificially generated portraits and says he has reviewed tens of thousands of such images. "It has all the hallmarks."
Klingemann and other experts said the photo — a closely cropped portrait of a woman with blue-green eyes, copper-colored hair and an enigmatic smile — appeared to have been created using a family of dueling computer programs called generative adversarial networks, or GANs, that can create realistic-looking faces of entirely imaginary people. GANs, sometimes described as a form of artificial intelligence, have been the cause of increasing concern for policymakers already struggling to get a handle on digital disinformation.
Katie is telling us that the era of evidence is drawing to a close. What changes will this bring?