McGuinty Resigns! Prorogues Legislature!
[The news links are included below............]
Like many of you, dinner tonight found me glued to the television for Premier McGuinty's emergency cabinet meeting speech. His brother was in town this afternoon. Wife Terri showed up with Dalton at the legislature. This could hardly be any routine political announcement.
McGuinty resigned! Of course, he called for party renewal. What else is he going to say when his personal popularity has hit an all time low, and the party trails far behind the Conservatives and the NDP? I don't think that was really the reason though. The scuttlebutt during the 2011 election was that this was his last campaign. He would resign mid term. It's a little early perhaps, but it is also well known in Liberal circles that he had promised his wife Terri he would resign after 10 years as premier. He might break promises in public but he would never get away with that at home!
The minority government win at first called his plans into doubt. Previously there was speculation they would head back home to Ottawa mid term. Dalton would stage a run for leader of the federal Liberal party. After all he is currently the longest reigning Liberal leader in Canada. The by election losses might've helped smooth matters out for the governing Liberals at Queen's Park by buying some more time as he excited the Premiers office. No such luck as the NDP with teacher support kicked his butt in K-W. Then Justin Trudeau's media coronation dashed his federal dreams. What to do?
My best guess would be that he's been keeping a fall back plan in motion too. Knowing he was on his way out anyway, he did the dirty work on a number of issues for the party, not the least of which was the teachers and public service wage freeze. So now Dalton bites the bullet and moves on, hoping the blame goes with him.
Terri has been very keen to get back to the McGuinty homestead in Ottawa. For ten years she stayed faithfully by his side here in Toronto. Don't doubt how close they are. Did you see them kiss and hug after the big announcement? Terri cashed in her chips in a little early perhaps, but my best guess is that an exit strategy, one way or another, has been the plan all along.
Now there will be a leadership conference. That's always good for a bump in the polls. Minority governments don't last long. The best bet among pundits is that the election dice will roll this spring. The Liberals will be hoping that a "renewed" party will be in place by then. All the dirty work will be done. Dalton will be gone. They will hit the campaign trail with renewed vigor. Turn around their failing fortunes to win back their majority. Or will they?
Proroguing the legislature is a pretty bad attack on our democratic principles. Still, it buys the embattled Liberal government a break from being hounded daily by the NDP and the Conservatives at Queen's Park. Plus, as we heard tonight, deals must now be reached with Dalton's Liberal government alone. It's unlikely the Conservatives or the NDP were going to support Dalton's plan for a wage freeze in the public sector on the Liberal's terms. The party will seemingly now have free hand to hammer us but good behind closed doors, with the legislature closed for the fall session, on Dalton's terms. That could be easily extended later into the spring session, by simply not recalling the legislature anytime soon, depending on Dalton's whims or those of the next party leader.
So then, we now have all the provinces business on hold, except for orders in council. The beleaguered Liberal party denies the opposition the ability to drill them further at the legislature, until they have completed their plans. Surely these actions are an outrageous and unacceptable attack on democracy in Ontario. First the MOU? Then Bill 115? Now this? Do the Liberals really think Ontarians will feel comfortable and support the Liberal "crisis" much longer? Are they living in a glass bubble, cut off from the real world with all their diabolical scheming and delusions? Or will the province just roll over and play dead?
It will be an especially cold and difficult winter for unionism in the long dark months ahead, of that there isn't any doubt. They also poses some interesting opportunities. Tim Hudak wants an even harder party line against us, and has been in bed with the Liberals for quite some time. Quite possibly that will not be the best place for the Conservatives to be. What of Andrea Horwath? Will the political landscape in Ontario become sharply divided between the far right and far left for a big political showdown without compare? Or will the NDP now firmly escone itself in the safer near vacant Ontario political left of centre? Figuring out the puzzle could well be left up to the NDP under her leadership. It will be a very hard test. However if Andrea keeps her wits about her and plays the situation right, the party might finally be very well placed for a return from the political hinterlands indeed. Maybe as the next opposition or ruling party?
We certainly live in interesting times!
Fellow pundits! Your comments are warmly invited! Please hit the Comment button on the bottom of this blog! I've yammered on enough. Let's hear what you think!
Dalton bites the bullet for the Liberal party! Will it backfire or not..........................................?
HERE'S THE NEWS LINKS:
Here's the text of McGuinty's resignation speech: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1271934--dalton-mcguinty-s-resignation-speech
Here's a video of his speech: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/news-video/video-ontario-premier-dalton-mcguintys-resignation-speech/article4614187/?from=4614086
McGuinty "should I stop here" quip is 30 seconds into this highlight's clip: http://m.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1271913--premier-dalton-mcguinty-resigns
Here's a Global page of video clips worth checking out: http://www.globaltoronto.com/pages/media.aspx?id=6442734115&mediaID=14
Globe and Mail coverage of the resignation: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-premier-dalton-mcguinty-resigns/article4614086/
CBC coverage includes tentative list of leadership hopefuls. No Laurel Broten isn't listed, which still begs the question, why did she agree to do his dirty work in education? See: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2012/10/16/ontario-mcguinty-resignation.html?cmp=rss
There has got to be a morning after! Lib's play coy coming out of a second cabinet meeting this morning, about their leadership spirations. Names look pretty predictable: Duncan, Wynne, Matthews, Bentley [!?!], Sousa. Methinks Kennedy burnt his party bridges, though I have heard Curious George Smitherman's name kicked around. See: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/duncan-ontario-finance-minister-and-deputy-premier-considers-top-job/article4616503/
Shifting around the deck chairs aboard the Liberal Titantic? Add Murray, Hoskins and Naqvi to the possible wannabe list. Forum poll shows none faring well. Kind of early though. Hudek and Horwath comment on events. Both now become the experienced party leaders surfacing into the next election, while Libs continue to be towed down with mucho baggage and damaged goods IMHO. See: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1272145--dalton-mcguinty-s-resignation-jockeying-under-way-to-be-ontario-s-next-premier
House leader John Milloy looks worried defending prorogation. Well might he. For shame Libs! See: https://twitter.com/reevesreport/status/258245854647951361/photo/1
The Star's Martin Regg Hart weighs in. A sensible perspective on the possibility of a federal leadership run should Lib rock star Justin Trudeau flame out. The legacy speculation is interesting. Could McGuinty pull off a labour deal as a departing gesture? See: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1272020--cohn-dalton-mcguinty-surprises-us-yet-again#.UH1C72AUbng.twitter
The Nation Post's Scott Sinson reports: http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/10/15/its-time-for-renewal-dalton-mcguinty-shocks-queens-park-with-surprise-resignation/
Vancouver Sun bio makes reference to a Chicago consulting firm that helped Dalton win in 2003. Ditto Obama a few years later. At first Dalton had a terrible time as party leader. You will recall that in 1989 the Harris Conservatives walked all over him to win a 2nd majority term. Sometimes he and Gerard Kennedy would make the rounds having a beer with us, and he was fine. However, in a crowd Dalton was like a stiff little wooden soldier somebody would wind up and send marching into a room. He was as bland and boring as could be too. I recall attending some practice meet and greet training sessions. Dalton had to walk into a crowded room, making the rounds talking to everybody, practicing being friendly and relaxed. Ouch! It was like he was trying to be natural while reading from a script. Still, he settled into the role against all odds and won. The Libs 2003 "Time for a Change" campaign was a retread the Libs got off the shelf from down in Australia or New Zealand. Anyway, here's the bio: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/fp/yourmoney/After+years+Liberal+leader+Ontario+Premier+Dalton+McGuinty+calls/7395270/story.html
[Terri: OK big boy! Look at all the people. Now, let's smile!!!]
Post Media speculates McGuinty quit because there was no way he could put the genie back in the bottle. Maybe just a nice way to say he lost his mojo? See: http://www.canada.com/McGuinty+walked+away+because/7394261/story.html
CBC article: 5 good questions about McGuinty's resignation. Terri is mentioned in one of them. See: http://news.ca.msn.com/top-stories/5-questions-on-dalton-mcguintys-resignation-1
ETFO press release encourages Liberals to get back to being Liberals. Notes it's a great opportunity to scrap Bill 115. Ha ha. Love the chutzpah! See: http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1053143/mcguinty-resignation-ontario-liberals-need-to-get-back-to-being-liberals
ETFO explains his severance pay. Hmmmm. Guess what?!? No cuts here! See: http://www.controlyourfuture.ca/etfo_news/mpp-severance-plan/
Tim Harper speculates on a federal leadership run: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1272005--tim-harper-dalton-mcguinty-s-real-gift-to-federal-liberals-would-be-provincia
More speculation. This article makes a good case that Dalton is considering a run but I am still not convinced. JustinTrudeau is the Liberals rock star. McGuinty is perhaps a write off in the key province of Ontario. Anyway, if Dalton does decide to run it has to be before Jan.15, so I suppose one way or another we will soon know: http://www.am1150.ca/News/National/Article.aspx?id=350415
Ottawa Citizen coverage speculates that the federal liberal race requires a heavy weight. Someone needs to test Justin Trudeau's mettle. In all the excitement a lot of coverage has overlooked that despite the charisma, Justin is NOT the intellectual or policy heavy weight PET was! See: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/touch/news/ottawa/McGuinty+steps+down+premier+after+nine+years+power/7394414/story.html?rel=825269
TVO's Political History of McGuinty with some vintage footage included: http://ww3.tvo.org/video/166413/political-history-ontario-premier-dalton-mcguinty
The Agenda with Steve Paikin has a well balanced overview of his career highs and lows. He first meet Dalton in 1990. Wonder if he will see him both in and out of politics with an NDP win? See: http://theagenda.tvo.org/blog/agenda-blogs/dalton-mcguintys-legacy
Tuesday Toronto Star editorial speculates Dalton will be better remembered with a long view, rather than from a current perspective: http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/article/1272013--dalton-mcguinty-resigns-premier-leaves-a-solid-legacy
Bulldog Canadian blog tribute: "Dalton will be missed." Now the political eulogies start. Before this is over you'd think he was the greatest thing since sliced bread. I regret the last year. Otherwise teachers did work together with him for many years to rebuild a great education system in Ontario. Guess he reached his shelf life. Terri McGuinty read him the riot act so he'd know. Here's Ken Gray's blog link: http://bulldogcanadian.com/
The Toronto dailies front page coverage: All the news that spritz....................................!
REMEMBER WEDNESDAY'S DALTON + TIM'S BIG FAT WEDDING EVENT AT QUEEN'S PARK, 5:30 PM. MORE INFO AT: http://ett.ca/media-centre/no/tim-and-daltons-big-fat-wedding-october-17-2012
More to come..............
What Dalton's legacy will ultimately be for subsequent premiers in this province is a new blueprint for 'collective bargaining' with the public sector - ie. the legislative hammer. OECTA's response to McGuinty's 'brave new world' - that a "negotiated settlement is better than a legislated one" to quote President O'Dwyer, was wrongheaded and weak. Ultimately, OECTA provincial aided and abetted McGuinty with his new legislative approach - we provided him with the "roadmap" which is a shameful legacy for OECTA to have been involved with.
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