FAO lifted the world's 2018 cereal production estimate to 2 611 million tonnes
07.02.2019 12:15 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — In its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief FAO lifted the world's 2018 cereal production estimate to 2 611 million tonnes, reflecting upward revisions of maize, wheat and rice.
Production prospects for wheat are positive for 2019, with the early outlook pointing to significant rebounds in the European Union and the Russian Federation.
Prospects for maize, soon to be harvested in the Southern Hemisphere, are generally strong in Argentina and Brazil, while dry weather has adversely affected plantings and yield prospects in South Africa.
FAO raised its estimate of world cereal utilization in the 2018/19 season to 2 657 million tonnes, which would represent a 1.7 percent increase from the 2017/18 level. The use of grains to feed livestock is expected to increase, with Australia needing more wheat due to the impact of dry weather on grazing pastures and China, Mexico and the U.S. expanding the use of coarse grains to an all-time high.
As utilization is foreseen to outpace output, world cereal stocks are projected to fall by 45 million tonnes, or 5.6 percent, from their record-high opening levels. This would result in the world stocks-to-use ratio for cereals declining to 28.5 percent, down from a nearly two-decade high of 30.8 percent in 2017/18.
International trade in all cereals will likely approach 416 million tonnes in the 2018/19 marketing season, marginally below the 2017/18 record volume, according to FAO's latest forecast.
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