NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions For Bears vs. Seahawks: Target Seattle on These Creative Teasers in Week 16
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson.
Michael Arinze
NFL Odds: Bears vs. Seahawks
Bears Odds +7
Seahawks Odds -7
Over/Under 41
TV FOX
The Seattle Seahawks aren't much better than the Chicago Bears, according to the NFL standings. After all, Seattle has just one more win than Chicago.
At 4-10, the Bears have already been eliminated from playoff contention. As for Seattle, FiveThirtyEight estimates its postseason chances at less than 1%. The Seahawks are already guaranteed to have a losing season, which would be a first in Russell Wilson's NFL career. With both teams set to face off in Week 16, it might be challenging to find any motivation on either side for this game.
However, bookmakers regard the two teams differently, as Seattle opened as a 5.5-point favorite. That line is currently up to -6.5 and that speaks volumes, considering Seattle is four games are under .500.
Let's dig into this matchup and assess whether Seattle is deserving of being such a heavy favorite despite its 5-9 record.
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Bears vs. Seahawks Injury Report
Bears Injuries
Find the Bears' complete injury report here.
Seahawks Injuries
Find the Seahawks' complete injury report here.
Bears vs. Seahawks Matchup
Bears Offense DVOA Rank Seahawks Defense
26 Total 25
24 Pass 28
21 Rush 7
Bears Defense DVOA Rank Seahawks Offense
22 Rush 11
Football Outsiders' DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team's success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.
Bears Stuck Hibernating
It's no surprise head coach Matt Nagy announced that Nick Foles will get the start in Week 16, with rookie quarterback Justin Fields (ankle) questionable to play. You'd have to go back to Week 5 to find the last time Fields won an NFL game he started. Since then, it's been seven consecutive losses for the Bears with Fields as a starter. Sure, there have been some glimpses and flashes of Fields's potential. However at times, it hasn't been enough for Chicago to look competitive in their games.
It's tough to sugarcoat things at some point when you consider that Pro Football Reference ranks Fields 31st in Total QBR (25.3) this season. The only starting quarterback in league with a worse QBR is Jets rookie Zach Wilson (22.5).
One thing that seems evident with the Bears is that they're almost trying to justify why Fields is starting these games. You get the feeling they're trying to make a statement with everything they do. Perhaps some of that has to do with Nagy possibly being fired with one year remaining on his contract. However, I feel that if we were going to see any real promise out of Chicago, we would've seen it in the Week 14 rematch against Green Bay.
Packers star Aaron Rodgers gave the Bears plenty of bulletin material leading into the game after mouthing, "I still own you," to a Chicago fan following a touchdown run in their Week 6 meeting. Rodgers then brushed aside any thought of walking back his comments in preparation for the rematch.
There's no question the Bears put forth a maximum effort in an attempt to win the game. They even held a 27-21 lead at halftime. The problem is Chicago scored just three points the rest of the game, losing by 15 points.
I saw that as a crushing loss for a Bears team just trying to run the clock out at this point. With Chicago now having to go on the road in a non-divisional game, I suspect the Bears struggle to find the necessary motivation to remain competitive in the matchup.
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Seahawks Struggling
It's certainly been a disappointing season for Wilson. In Week 5, he suffered an injury on the middle finger of his throwing hand. The injury sidelined him for three weeks and it occurred when the Seahawks were 2-3 with their playoff chances hanging in the balance.
In Wilson's absence, Seattle went 1-2, but its two losses were by a combined margin of just six points. There's no question that Wilson could've been the difference in those games if he was healthy enough to play. When Wilson met with the media Thursday, he reluctantly admitted that he wasn't 100% when he returned from the injury.
Russell Wilson with one of his more frank comments on his injury today saying of the Green Bay game "was I 100 percent? Definitely not.'' Said it wasn't until six weeks after injury that "I felt really good.'' But also noted he'd played "banged up'' before and felt he could play.
— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) December 23, 2021
Anyone who watched his performance when he returned likely knew he wasn't ready. After all, the timeline for the injury was supposed to be six weeks. However, the bigger question for me is why would Wilson choose to offer up this information at the moment? I think it's because he still has something to prove for the remainder of the season.
I faded Wilson and the Seahawks on Tuesday, largely because downfield threat Tyler Lockett was ruled out due to COVID-19 protocols. Lockett has formed quite a connection with Wilson, as he leads the team in receiving yards (1,023) despite having fewer targets (93) this season.
Before Tuesday's game, Lockett led Seattle in receiving yards for four consecutive weeks. With him cleared to return to the team, I'd expect the offense to pick up right where it left off.
NFL Pick: Bears vs. Seahawks
Although Seattle comes into this game on shorter rest, the more experienced teams tend to have the edge in this situational spot. And while it's been a rough year for the Seahawks, I'd trust Wilson to have his team ready to play. Historically, favorites laying at least 6.5 points with just five days between games are 50-29 against the spread for 19.37 units.
However, since I've got my sight set on a few teasers this weekend, I recommend teasing Seattle down six points to 0.5 and doing the same with Green Bay by bringing it down to -1.5 from -7.5 at -110 odds.
I'll also play the same combination and include the Buffalo Bills from +2 to +8 as part of a three-team teaser valued at +165 odds.
I plan to allocate a half unit of my bankroll for each play.
Pick: Two-Team Six-Point Teaser (-110) — Seahawks -0.5 & Packers -1.5
Bonus Pick: Three-Team Six-Point Teaser (+165): Seahawks -0.5, Packers -1.5 & Bills +8
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