Taxpayers Alliance Issue Report on HS2
Hilary Wharf of HS2ActionAlliance said:
"The Taxpayers' Alliance is right. The Government's case for high speed rail just doesn't stack up. Numerous towns and cities will see train services cut and cheaper alternatives to improve the network and deliver more capacity have not been properly considered. Instead the Government plan to spend £30bn on a project the country cannot afford, for the benefit of the rich. Average take-home pay has fallen by £1,000 since the downtown started. Every household in the country is set to lose a further £1,000 if these plans go ahead. We don't need it and we cannot afford it. High speed rail must be stopped before it becomes the most expensive white elephant in British history."
1. The Government's proposed new high speed rail line (HS2) is set to be a white elephant that will cost every family well over £1,000, but only benefit a fortunate affluent minority. The initial plan is to build a high speed rail link from Birmingham to London – costing £17.8 billion but only saving 30 minutes in journey time (against today's timetable). The second phase, which will take high speed rail to Manchester and Leeds (the "Y"), will take the capital cost to over £30 billion.
2. To receive a copy of HS2Action Alliance's full report on the Government's plans please contact Julian Smyth-Osbourne on 07710 946701
3. An investigation of the Government's new consultation document by HS2 Action Alliance exposes five myths about the Government's case for a new high speed rail line (HS2:
MYTH ONE: HS2 is the best way to improve the rail network
More affordable alternatives to HS2 are not properly considered but it is clear that they can deliver better value.
The business case shows that a number of towns and cities – including major cities and towns like Coventry and Stoke-on-Trent – will see train services cut thanks to high speed rail. And there will be 8 years of disruption as Euston is rebuilt.
Even the first phase from London to Birmingham will not be delivered till 2026, whereas alternatives can deliver needed capacity much more quickly.
MYTH TWO: HS2 offers good value for money
The expected benefits have been cut by at least a third from the original business case.
That estimate is still based on a number of dubious assumptions. If they are corrected to be more realistic then the case that the new line's benefits outweigh its costs collapses:
1. No account has been taken for people working while travelling – in other words, that it is not time wasted but time used productively
2. While the rate of projected demand growth has slowed, by basing the business case on what might happen over the next 35 years, and using out of date forecasting factors, the Government has still greatly overestimated demand for long distance train services (by some 47%).
3. The comparator used is one in which the rail network is maintained as it is without improvement for 30 years.
Re-doing the sums on a realistic basis shows the taxpayer gets back just 30 pence (or 50 pence including the wider economic impacts) for every £1 spent on phase 1. For the full "Y" network the figures increase, but only to 40p and 60p respectively.
MYTH THREE: HS2 will benefit ordinary people
Use of HS2 will be dominated by those earning high incomes.
The specific answers on the equality impact of HS2 in the consultation documents conceals the extent to which it is the affluent who will benefit.
No case is made for a regressive subsidy that benefits the rich and encourages travel, when there is an alternative approach, ie charging full costs.
MYTH FOUR: HS2 will help bridge the North-South divide
The new business case shows that 7 out of 10 jobs created by high speed rail will be in London, not the Midlands or North of England.
Most of the jobs claimed will not be genuinely new employment but moved from other areas within that region.
HS2 would benefit the service sector, where London dominates. Since 70% of HS2 passengers are leisure travellers and there is much greater growth in trips to London (than from London) it is London not the regions that will gain.
MYTH FIVE: HS2 is good for the environment
The new business case shows that just 6 in every 100 travellers on high speed rail would be people who have switched from flying to trains.
87% of passengers will have switched from existing rail services or be making new journeys, meaning that more energy is used and therefore more emissions are produced.
Overall, despite the huge cost, HS2 will not cut emissions.
You could build a new Millennium Dome every 6 miles between London and Birmingham for the same cost of constructing Stage 1 of HS2.
You could build wall of pound coins 20 feet high from Euston to New Street for the same price of Stage 1 of HS2. Or you could use the money to improve our existing railways without destroying anything.
When the Conservative Party first announced their support for high speed rail in 2008, they claimed the entire network could be built for £15 billion. Latest estimates - £42 billion plus.
More than 70 per cent of the 30,000 jobs created around HS2 stations in Stage 1 will be in London rather than the West Midlands.
Around 10,000 jobs will be created in the West Midlands from Stage 1 of HS2. This for a region with over 2.6 million adults of working age of which 235,000 are unemployed.
HS2 was so important to British business that just 429 out of 4.5 million of them responded to the 2011 national consultation on HS2.
HS2 Ltd's own forecasts indicate the construction of a new high speed rail line would lead to a 1% decline in motorway traffic between the West Midlands to London.
HS2 Ltd's own forecasts estimate just 3% of HS2's passengers will be switching from air to rail.
HS2 Ltd's own forecasts estimate just 6% of HS2's passengers will be switching from the car to rail.
HS2's revenues will cover just 29% of its capital costs, down from over 40% since February 2011
HS2's latest business case assumes there will be over £7bn of cuts to existing rail services to help pay for the new line.
London will benefit from 70% of jobs created by Stage 1 of HS2. London is the biggest winner from HS2.
The UK already has quicker rail journey times between the capital and its five largest cities than any other major West European country.
Network Rail's figures show Euston the least busy domestic long distance service station - just 60% capacity in the morning peak.
Demand for HS1 in 2006 was forecast by the Department for Transport to be 28 million passengers annually. The actual passenger traffic using HS1 today is only 9.7m.
HS2 will link just four city centres - Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham and London.
Official forecasts assume most of HS2's passengers will be travelling for leisure purposes and that trips to London will grow at twice the rate as those from London, bringing more people and more money to London.
55% of HS2's benefits captured by official forecasts arises from the idea that people don't work on trains.
89% of HS2's projected passengers will transfer from less polluting alternatives to high speed rail.
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beleben: Blooper duper
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