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30 Jan 19, 04:35
Originally posted by Metryll View Post
EU answer took 10 minutes : No.
We will see. The EU, particularly Ireland if they remain loyal, will suffer more under a no deal than the UK. And the disruption in the UK would all be short term whereas they could be long lasting loses in the EU.
"To be free is better than to be unfree - always."
Snowygerry
So she IS coming back to Brussels then ?
Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Game.
E.D. Morel
Originally posted by Surrey View Post
I can see that Ireland will be hit hardest with a no deal Brexit but I don't see how the impact will be greater on the EU than it will be on the UK.
The forecast for employment growth over the next 3 years is 130,000 extra jobs in the economy (current total labour force 2.25 million) with a no-deal brexit. That would be 50,000 to 60,000 higher with no Brexit.
We currently have 5% unemployment with that forecast to drop to well under 4% within the next 18-24 months. Even with Brexit we will see economic growth and declining unemployment, just as greatly reduced rates of positive change.
We are currently in serious danger of the economy overheating with labour shortages, housing shortages and lots of wage demands from the Public Sector Unions so a little bit of Brexit will do us no real harm although lots of Brexit might.
Last edited by E.D. Morel; 30 Jan 19, 05:31.
"The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
"Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me
Gooner
Great decisiveness From the EU Politburo
And In contrast, a democracy:
Originally posted by E.D. Morel View Post
Almost certainly won't be. On the other hand the Eurozone countries might also be in for a fiscal shock with the ECB deciding to punish Italy for electing the wrong type of government last year, by restricting credit - and Italy needs to refinance about €350 billion this year.
France's national debt is soaring away to over 100% of GDP so we can expect the ECB to order Macron to cut spending as well - not!
Johan Banér
Originally posted by Gooner View Post
You've now ended up claiming knowing neither what you want, nor how to get it, is democratic in itself. Whereas the opposite is by definition undemocratic...
It's a comparison between a coordinated foreign policy position involving 27 democracies, vs a domestic politics debate of a single parliament that failed to make sense even as it played out, much less its decisions. The former really only needs an errand boy to explain (again). The latter apparently requires a head of government, and it still makes no sense what she's supposed to be doing now.
And that was "the meaningful vote" we are to assume?
The UK gambit, if that's what it is, is rather to see if the EU will remain loyal to Ireland.
Rather a lot is riding on the opposite for the UK now. It needs for Ireland to be thrown under the Brexit bus.
Odds are still that the EU will hold, since railroading Eire on the UK's behalf actually is something it could not live down. It's only in the Brexit fantasies, where the EU is Mordor / (Nazi) Germany, that it really could happen.
Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
It's a comparison between a coordinated foreign policy position involving 27 democracies,
And I am impressed and amazed how these 27 democracies came up with a co-ordinated response in just 10 minutes!
Wonderful how the EU can be so united about something it doesn't discuss or vote about.
vs a domestic politics debate of a single parliament that failed to make sense even as it played out, much less its decisions. The former really only needs an errand boy to explain (again). The latter apparently requires a head of government, and it still makes no sense what she's supposed to be doing now.
Debating and voting makes no sense?
Anyway what don't you understand? MPs have voted for the Irish 'backstop' to be replaced by "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border" otherwise the withdrawal agreement will not pass.
We wait to see the response in the discussions in the EUs 27 democracies.
Their position was decided ages ago. Their representative is simple maintaining that message.
Their position was decided for them ages ago, comrade.
Because it's the same they came up with about two years ago. Nothing substantial has changed. All they need is the errand boy to remind the British, again. Whatever good it can even do...
Really, this IS the bit where the British Brexit side REALLY has spent the last couple of years being willfully deaf to what the EU 27 have been saying all along, and very consistently. And they can be this consistent because they have agreed on a common position. And it's AT LEAST based on knowing what they do not want in the situation. Which if the UK made a clear decision about it as well could massively clarify the UK position.
The debate and negotiations on the EU side was finished by about early 2017. For the EU 27 nothing substantial has since changed requiring revisiting the original decisions. It's the advantage of having a principle-based approach. The only problem all along has been this British refusal to recognize it.
Hell, even May's active courting the like of Polish PIS and Hungary's Orban hoping to entice them to break ranks with the other EU members has netted her nothing. There is no divide-and-conquer option in this for the UK, much as it seems to stick to the forlorn hope.
We also wait to see these "alternative arrangements" of course...for the moment there's still nothing to reply to.
Truth be told - outside of Ireland and the UK few in the EU know what this "backstop" is or why it is a problem, nor do they care I imagine.
Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post
Yes that's understandable, the question is whether the 27 EU democracies can reopen negotiations to stave off a no deal Brexit.
And the "alternative arrangement" proposal will be ready for review, when ?
That's great, the withdrawal agreement was only published in November 2018 but the EU 27 had already agreed to it in early 2017!
Sure the EU has got a principle based approached, the principle being the Comission decides and the EU 27 agrees. Except if you have the name Merkel. Then you get to decide too.