An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate
Peter Bayliss, Colin Finlayson, J Innes, A Norman-Lopez, Renee Bartolo, A Harford, N E Pettit, C L Humphrey, Rick van Dam, L X C Dutra, E Woodward, E Ligtermoet, A Steven, A Chariton, D K Williams
Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport Unit
Department of Environment, Darwin, NT
AIMS ATRF Darwin
Edith Cowan University
The internationally important river–floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise–saltwater inundation (SLR–SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting–fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake 'what if' management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.
Marine and Freshwater Research
https://doi.org/10.1071/MF17043
10.1071/MF17043
Dive into the research topics of 'An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.
Risk Earth and Planetary Sciences 100%
Species Social Sciences 100%
Invasive Species Earth and Planetary Sciences 80%
Invasive Plants Agricultural and Biological Sciences 80%
Risk Assessment Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science 80%
Value Earth and Planetary Sciences 60%
Freshwater Social Sciences 60%
Fresh Water Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science 60%
Bayliss, P., Finlayson, C., Innes, J., Norman-Lopez, A., Bartolo, R., Harford, A., Pettit, N. E., Humphrey, C. L., van Dam, R., Dutra, L. X. C., Woodward, E., Ligtermoet, E., Steven, A., Chariton, A., & Williams, D. K. (2018). An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate. Marine and Freshwater Research, 69(7), 1159-1185. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF17043
Bayliss, Peter ; Finlayson, Colin ; Innes, J et al. / An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate. In: Marine and Freshwater Research. 2018 ; Vol. 69, No. 7. pp. 1159-1185.
@article{b542f978747946c5966a051e83225677,
title = "An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate",
abstract = "The internationally important river–floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise–saltwater inundation (SLR–SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting–fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake {\textquoteleft}what if{\textquoteright} management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.",
keywords = "Adaptive management, Bioeconomic, Climate change, Decadal, Feedback, Kakadu National Park, Ramsar, Socio-ecological systems, Threshold, Traditional Owners.",
author = "Peter Bayliss and Colin Finlayson and J Innes and A Norman-Lopez and Renee Bartolo and A Harford and Pettit, {N E} and Humphrey, {C L} and {van Dam}, Rick and Dutra, {L X C} and E Woodward and E Ligtermoet and A Steven and A Chariton and Williams, {D K}",
note = "Includes bibliographical references.",
doi = "10.1071/MF17043",
journal = "Australian Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research",
Bayliss, P, Finlayson, C, Innes, J, Norman-Lopez, A, Bartolo, R, Harford, A, Pettit, NE, Humphrey, CL, van Dam, R, Dutra, LXC, Woodward, E, Ligtermoet, E, Steven, A, Chariton, A & Williams, DK 2018, 'An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate', Marine and Freshwater Research, vol. 69, no. 7, pp. 1159-1185. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF17043
An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate. / Bayliss, Peter; Finlayson, Colin; Innes, J et al.
In: Marine and Freshwater Research, Vol. 69, No. 7, 2018, p. 1159-1185.
T1 - An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate
AU - Bayliss, Peter
AU - Finlayson, Colin
AU - Innes, J
AU - Norman-Lopez, A
AU - Bartolo, Renee
AU - Harford, A
AU - Pettit, N E
AU - Humphrey, C L
AU - van Dam, Rick
AU - Dutra, L X C
AU - Woodward, E
AU - Ligtermoet, E
AU - Steven, A
AU - Chariton, A
AU - Williams, D K
N1 - Includes bibliographical references.
N2 - The internationally important river–floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise–saltwater inundation (SLR–SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting–fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake 'what if' management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.
AB - The internationally important river–floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise–saltwater inundation (SLR–SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting–fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake 'what if' management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.
KW - Adaptive management
KW - Bioeconomic
KW - Decadal
KW - Feedback
KW - Kakadu National Park
KW - Ramsar
KW - Socio-ecological systems
KW - Threshold
KW - Traditional Owners.
U2 - 10.1071/MF17043
DO - 10.1071/MF17043
JO - Australian Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research
JF - Australian Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research
Bayliss P, Finlayson C, Innes J, Norman-Lopez A, Bartolo R, Harford A et al. An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate. Marine and Freshwater Research. 2018;69(7):1159-1185. Epub 2017 Oct 31. doi: 10.1071/MF17043