Tag Archives: Capital in the 21st Century
Radio & the Consumer Driven American Economy
This week produced some conflicting economic data. The stock market was setting new records and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% but the number of people filing for unemployment benefits beat analysis estimates. WTF?
The Surprising Threat to Radio
It's estimated that two thirds of the American economy is driven by consumer spending. Don't get hung up on the percentage, but know that a lot of our economy is driven by the buying and selling of stuff that is consumed.
Some things, like a Whopper are consumed quickly and other things, like the car you drive, are consumed over a longer period of time. Much of our spending is discretionary.
Radio is a strong driver of putting thoughts into people's heads about things they should be deciding to consume. Radio is the word of mouth medium with the big mouth.
So what threatens radio today? Consumers are not spending.
Radio's Role in Consumerism
Broadcasters can't change the attitude of an apathetic consumer for the most part. Other factors in the world create consumer attitudes, uncertainty being one of the biggest.
Uncertainty causes consumers to hunker down and make do with what they already have. And today's world is filled with lots of uncertainty that is being stoked 24/7 by the cable news networks, talk radio and social media.
Radio is excellent at directing consumers to different businesses, products and services when they are feeling confident and want to part with some of that discretionary cash.
Barron's reports that year-over-year growth in U.S. retails sales peaked in mid-2011 at 8.3% and has since rolled back to 4.5%. The four biggest performing stocks are Amazon, McDonalds, Comcast and Home Depot.
Radio people are very aware of the huge debt problems impacting iHeartMedia and Cumulus. But they may not be aware that American household debt in the last quarter reached a record $12.73 trillion and Barron's says that just surpassed the debt American's owed at the height of the housing bubble.
Student loan debt is now over $1.4 trillion, which is about $620 million more than U.S. credit card debt. Student loan debt rose six percent in the past year.
American credit card debt rose by $3 billion in February 2017, its highest level since 2008 according to The Motley Fool.
Market Watch says that U.S. households now have surpassed the amount of debt they had in 2008. Plus Americans are struggling with their auto loan debt with these sub-prime loans hitting their highest delinquency levels in December 2016. A pattern that Market Watch says was seen prior to the 2007-2009 great recession.
During the 1960s and 1970s, the American economy expanded over 11%. In the 90s it couldn't get above 9% and in the most current expansion it hit 5.9% and recently was only 3.6% according to Barron's.
Many Americans no longer see consumption as being the "American Dream" but now are saving as much as they possibly can despite interest rates on savings sitting at anemic levels.
Income inequality is also playing a huge role in the current state of American consumerism. 76% of the wealth in America is now held by the top 10%. Only 1% is in the hands of the bottom 50% of American families in today's America. CNN Money reported in December 2016 the wealth inequality in America is getting worse. "The rich are money making machines," said CNN.
A 2016 study by Gallop senior economist Jonathan Rothwell found that the bulk of our national spending is eaten up by just three items – healthcare, housing and education.
What's the impact on ad supported media in a world of enormous debt and haves vs. have-nots? I wrote about this after reading Thomas Piketty's book "Capital in the 21st Century." That article was called "The Future of Ad Supported Media" and you can read it by clicking on the link here .
What all of this is telling us, Spending is OUT and Frugality is IN.
A broadcaster friend of mine was sharing that in his PPM market TV ad time is now selling at "radio rates." When the pie isn't growing, media companies are forced to begin taking more from someone else.
Radio is the best value for the money when the economy goes soft.
I started my radio sales career at the beginning of the early 80s recession. I was very successful and it saw me enjoying a four plus decade long radio career before becoming a broadcast professor to pay-it-forward to a new generation of broadcasters.
As Warren Buffett says, "It's when the tide goes out, that you know who's wearing a bathing suit." In other words, when the business changes from taking orders to really selling, we will learn which companies have trained their sales people to not just survive but thrive.
Tagged as ad supported media, American Dream, American economy, Barron's, Capital in the 21st Century, car loan debt, CNN Money, consumerism, credit card debit, debt, Education, expansion, Future of Ad Supported Media, Gallop, healthcare, housing, Jonathan Rothwell, Market Watch, mortgage debt, Radio Advertising, recession, Student Loan Debt, The Motely Fool, Thomas Piketty, TV advertising, unemployment rate, Warren Buffett, wealth inequality
Radio's Jobs Didn't Move to Mexico
It seems like no matter what line of work you're in, someone is finding a way to take your job away. If you're in coal mining, you think the EPA is doing it to you. If you're in manufacturing, you think its Mexico or China or some other country that pays their workers less and offers no benefits. But is that really what's happening to jobs?
Where are the (Radio) Jobs?
I got into radio when I was in high school because I wanted to be a disc jockey. (Discs were what records were once called. Records were how we played music on the radio off of turntables, after live musicians were replaced by recorded music on the radio.) My DJ days are long behind me, but I don't remember anyone from my earliest days being upset that records replaced the need for live musicians to play music on the radio. Do you?
Musician's Union
I was also a musician. Played trombone. This was another way I earned money to go to college in addition to my radio work.
A fund set-up to promote live music from the playing of recordings on the radio is where the money came from to pay for my performances in local community concert bands. It was called the "Musicians Performance Trust Fund."
To be eligible to be paid under this fund, you had to join the local musicians union AFL-CIO. I was a union member at age 15.
As high wage manufacturing jobs were leaving, many turned to the profession of truck driver. Truck drivers are well paid and people thought, let's see them automate that. Truck driving employees have been untouched by globalization and automation. You can't send truck driving in Ohio to be done by person living in Mexico. But that other factor, automation, is now on the horizon.
Uber Driverless Truck Delivers 50,000 Beers
I'm sure you've heard about driverless cars and that many expect they will be a reality by 2020 (3 years from now). But while many in the radio industry worried about the loss of radio listening in the car if the car starts driving itself and now everyone can watch TV or surf the internet, I worried that more middle class jobs would soon be automated, never to return.
Wired magazine reported in late October of 2016 how OTTO (Uber bought this company for $680 million) was driving the beer truck down the highway in Colorado without a human behind the wheel.
So it doesn't take a lot of imagination to realize that we soon will see driverless cabs, buses, trains, planes, boats and a whole lot of people formerly known as the middle class will be out-of-work.
This same thing is happening in higher education too via the internet.
The Fate of the DJ
So where did the radio jobs, like being a disc jockey (DJ) go? They were high-teched. Automated. The industry calls it "voice tracked." The very technology that did away with the need to have live studio musicians playing music now no longer needs the person that played the recordings of those musicians.
To radio personalities this is not news. It's been that way since the late 20th Century.
To the multi-tasking, hard-working, over-committed and under-paid middle class it might have seemed as nothing had changed. Heck, they might have even seen the change as an improvement. Certainly recorded music was better in some ways than live studio musicians as it provided more variety in musical entertainment.
It's Technology, Stupid
The wonderful high-tech devices designed to make our lives so much easier are also taking away the well-paying jobs that created the middle class of the 20th Century.
What's the world's 21st Century plan to deal with this change?
Ad Supported Media
The current crisis in ad supported media is that in a world of infinite media choices, and unlimited advertising avails, the money that used to be enjoyed from the sale of advertising is now less than previously realized.
About two years ago I wrote in this blog an article about what I saw as the future of ad supported media. I wrote it after reading Thomas Piketty's book "Capital in the 21st Century." I went back and re-read that article and see the trend lines of the graph on page 357 still all moving in the same direction and that should give us all pause.
21st Century Media Business Model
All media is moving to a pay-for-play model. HBO, Showtime, Hulu, iTunes Radio, SiriusXM, CBS All Access, Amazon, Netflix, Pandora, Spotify etc. The ad supported model is coming to an end and the pay for what you want is replacing it.
The Wall Street Journal reported in the 4th quarter of 2016 that streaming revenues off-set declining sales of CDs and digital downloads.
People now rent what they want versus own.
And where does that leave your business?
Filed under Education, Mentor, Radio, Sales, Uncategorized
Tagged as ad supported business model, ad supported media, AFL-CIO, Air Personality, automation, Capital in the 21st Century, Disc Jockey, DJ, driverless cars, driverless trucks, high tech, Mexico, Musicians Performance Trust Fund, OTTO, Thomas Piketty, Uber, Voice Tracking, Wired Magazine
The Day the "Dumbest Idea" Invaded the Radio Industry
Last week I wrote about killing the goose that lays the golden eggs. It was my way of comparing the Aesop fable to the world of American radio. It got a lot of discussion. But I felt that while I touched on how radio operators twenty years ago wanted to harvest all the golden eggs immediately versus waiting to get one each day, by virtue of a last minute insertion into the Telcom Act of 1996 that basically removed the ownership caps on radio, there was – as Paul Harvey used to intone – 'the rest of the story' to be told.
The rest of the story involves "the dumbest idea." I grew up about a decade after World War Two ended. This was the period when America enjoyed an extended period of economic growth and a shared prosperity. By "shared prosperity" I mean it was a time when the workers who produced a product or service shared in the profits produced by the company. Managers and workers would see their income grow together. As everyone's pay increased, there was more discretionary income to spend. This was the rise of the middle class in America. All boats were rising with the economic tide.
In 1968, I started on-the-air at one of my hometown radio stations while in the 10th grade in high school. I was paid the minimum wage; $1.60 per hour. Did you know that 1968 was the year when someone making the minimum wage had the most buying power for that rate of pay? The equivalent in 2012 dollars is $10.34 per hour. So what happened?
Somewhere in the 1970s things changed. Firms began to focus on themselves. The productivity gains produced by the workers were no longer shared with the workers. Since no one complained, this new way of doing business continued.
The 1980s really saw this new operational style take hold. And as it did, incomes for the middle class stagnated. When the middle class incomes stop growing, the ramifications on the rest of the economy are magnified. Workers no longer have discretionary income to spend. This was initially covered up by women entering the workforce producing two wage-earner incomes. Then when that ran its course, credit cards, second mortgages would keep the party going under false pretenses.
Today we are in a vicious cycle of decline.
What changed in the 1970s was a new idea about what metric should be used to measure the success of a business. Before this new idea was born, Peter Drucker's measure was the rule. The purpose of a business, said Drucker, was to create a customer. But that went out with leisure suits, the new crop of business wizards would proclaim. What replaced it was something that even GE's Jack Welch has called "the dumbest idea in the world."
What was this dumb idea? Increasing shareholder value.
In an effort to offset declining profits and performance, a new operating modus operandi was conceived that the purpose of a corporation is to maximize shareholder value. To make sure the captains of industry got the message, boards of directors would change their compensation packages to cause these business leaders to focus on increasing the company's stock price. What could possibly go wrong?
The concept was embraced by both America's business schools as well as industry. Unfortunately, the new policy not only didn't solve the problem it was supposed to address but by unintended consequences created a myriad of new problems no one foresaw.
Tell me if any of these "unintended consequences" sound familiar to you: short-term decision making, relentless cost cutting, staff reductions (RIFs), less investment in the business, virtually no innovation, low workforce morale, no raises in pay, reduced benefits, non-stop mergers, increased debt, lost ability to compete, declining R.O.I., and economic stagnation. I'm sure you can add to this list based on your own experiences. For a more detailed look at this, you should read Steve Denning's "Why 'The System' Is Rigged And The U.S. Electorate Is Angry," the inspiration behind today's blog post.
So twenty years ago, in 1996, President Bill Clinton signed into law the Telcom Act of 1996. This would bring "the dumbest idea in the world" to the radio industry. Wall Street jumped into the new shiny investment opportunity; radio. Everything that every other industry was experiencing from this new operational style was now rearing its ugly head in the broadcasting industry. All with the same negative impacts.
Not all organizations adopted this dumb idea of operating. They stuck with Drucker's rule. And it's the same with the radio industry. The smaller radio operations do operate differently. Their success has others sitting up and taking notice.
However, most organizations – and not just in broadcasting – are still in denial. The evaporating middle class is not good for an industry that lives off of advertising. Advertising is pitched to the masses who are the consumers that drive over seventy percent of the American economy. I wrote about the future of ad supported media last year after I read Thomas Piketty's book "Capital in the 21st Century." You can read that blog post here.
Based on the tumultuous presidential election season we've seen so far, it would appear that the American society has awakened and is now "as mad as hell and not going to take it anymore." Cue Howard Beal here.
Steve Denning writes: "We are now at an 'emperor has no clothes' moment." It's now clear that this way is not working and is not only leading to systemic value destruction but an economy that no longer works for the middle class.
If we've ever needed real leadership in America, it's now — and from all directions.
Tagged as ad supported media, Advertising, American economy, American radio, Capital in the 21st Century, digital radio, Forbes, GE, Howard Beal, Jack Welch, middle class, minimum wage, Paul Harvey, Peter Drucker, President Clinton, shared prosperity, shareholder value, Steve Denning, Telcom Act of 1996, the dumbest idea, Thomas Piketty, Why The System Is Rigged
The Future of Ad Supported Media
I've just finished reading Thomas Piketty's book "Capital in the Twenty-First Century," which I highly recommend everyone read, and Piketty stops me cold on page 357 with this graph (see below). I've highlighted in yellow two things for you to take note of. In a moment I'll explain why this hit me so hard.
This same week, I was reading Seth Godin's blog post "Mass production and mass media" where he explains that mass media exists because it permits mass marketers to do their job and how mass media is going away. If you're in radio or TV, that kind of proclamation will get your attention; BIGTIME.
Godin is predicting that the "mass" part is what's going away and that it is being replaced by "micro." In essence that it's better to be important to a few than be irrelevant to the many.
Then this article appears in AllAccess "Radio's Dying…But The Cause Isn't What You Think." Seth Resler writes that radio isn't going to die because it has been abandoned by listeners, but it's going to die because it's been abandoned by advertisers. Resler goes on to make the case that advertising is moving away from the Mad Men era art form that it was, towards a keyword and search scientific algorithm metric of today.
"…there has been little doubt for more than a decade that the advertising model that traditionally supported an industrial-age news and information system is evaporating," writes Anderson, Bell and Shirky on pages 11-15 in "Post-Industrial Journalism: Adapting to the Present (2012)"
Mark Perry, blogging at the American Enterprise Institute writes: "The dramatic decline in newspaper ad revenues since 2000 has to be one of the most significant and profound Schumpeterian gales of creative destruction in the last decade, maybe in a generation."
Well, I'm here to have you consider a 3rd possibility, one that stopped me in my tracks as I was reading Piketty's book. Now, I may be putting words in Professor Piketty's mouth when I tell you what I'm about to say. Piketty did not write about radio or TV, or mass media in general in his book. He writes about wealth inequality in our world from antiquity to the present day and then makes some predictions about where things are headed based on current trend lines.
But this graph on page 357 haunts me.
That graph, from the period of 1913 to 2012 includes the period in which radio and television were born. It's the era when advertising supported media took off. I worked the last forty years of that graph in the radio business and experienced the change in business that this graph shows.
Commercial radio was born in 1920. Commercial TV took-off in the 1950s. And I quite agree with Seth Godin when he writes "Mass production, the ability to make things cheaply, in volume, demanded that we invent mass marketing – it was the only way to sell what was being made in the quantity it was produced. Mass media exists because it permits mass marketers to do their job." To which I would add to Seth's thoughts that mass media and mass marketing both existed because there was a strong American middle class of consumers.
If Piketty is correct, the concept of a middle class consumer economy that existed between 1913 and 2012, was an anomaly. It didn't really exist anywhere in the world before 1913 and it's very likely not going to exist anywhere in the world as we journey away from the year 2012. The middle class consumer economy will evaporate and along with it, advertiser support for mass media.
1913-2012 was a unique period in world economic history. It gave birth to consumers who had money to spend, mass production that could produce lots of goods and mass media that could advertise those goods. All three were simultaneously occurring at the very same moment.
The new buzz words are "shared economy" and "collaborative economy." What roles will large corporations, universities and mass media play when people are getting what they need from one another?
In 2014, Nielsen Music reported a staggering drop in music sales where as much as a fifth of music buyers didn't buy anything. 2014 also saw box office ticket sales plunge to their lowest level in three years. The home ownership rate reached its lowest point in 25 years at the end of 2014. More people were now living in shared living arrangements or going back home to live with mom and dad. And NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio appearing on "The Nightly Show with Larry Wilmore" told viewers that:
"The wealth gap in New York City today is worse than during the Great Depression or The Roaring 20s – and the gap is growing bigger. Today over half the people in NYC pay over a third of their income for housing. The reality is, (according to the mayor) if we don't change course middle class families won't exist in New York City."
Are these reports canaries in the consumer coal shaft?
Medialife Magazine, a magazine devoted to media buyers and planners, reported that 2014 wasn't good for advertising. Total spending was up 3.0 percent, but if you take out political spending and the Winter Olympics, the number shrinks to 1.6 percent. "That's the worst yearly growth pace since the recession began in 2008," said writer Bill Cromwell. Traditional media is struggling and according to Magna Global, "this appears to be a lasting trend."
Only recently have broadcast operators said things like "flat is the new up" when comparing year-over-year revenues. I realize there are exceptions to what I'm saying. Your broadcast property might be one of them. But what are the trends that are taking place and how will they impact you in the years to come?
It took two world wars to re-set the wealth inequality gap and put into place FDR's New Deal. Changes that have in more recent times been stripped away returning things to the way they were in the 19th Century; a period of time when the concept of a middle class of consumers didn't exist.
Roy H. Williams, aka The Wizard of Ads wrote recently (Monday Morning Memo, March 2, 2015) about "the shrinking of mass media" and "the growing reality of gender equality." America went from being 16% single to 46% single in just one generation, Williams writes. "A once-proud nation of families is evolving into a proud nation of individuals." And Williams sees "The trend toward singleness is sociological (while) the erosion of mass media is technological (as) each trend accelerates the other."
Williams comes to this conclusion:
"We're approaching the end of a golden time when courageous advertisers can invest money in mass media and see their businesses grow as a result. My suspicion is that we've got perhaps 5 to 7 more years before retail businesses and service businesses will be forced to begin playing by a whole new set of rules. Buy mass media while the masses can still be reached."
The future of ad supported media is tied to consumerism. Consumerism is tied to having a strong middle class.
Does the Piketty graph on page 357 of his book "Capital" send a chill down your spine like it does to mine?
P.S. Thomas Piketty published an amplification on his r>g theory. You can read that here.
Tagged as ad supported media, Advertising, AllAccess, Bill de Blasio, Capital in the 21st Century, collaborative economy, consumer, consumerism, Larry Wilmore, Medialife Magazine, Monday Morning Memo, Roy H. Williams, Seth Godin, Seth Resler, shared economy, The Nightly Show, Thomas Piketty, Wizard of Ads