Grim Job Report Not Showing Full Picture
Excerpts:
The number of people out of the labor force — meaning that they were neither working nor looking for work and that the government did not consider them unemployed — jumped by 637,000 last month, the Labor Department said. The number of part-time workers who said they wanted full-time work — all counted as fully employed — rose by an additional 621,000.
Take these people into account, and the job market may be in its worst condition since the early 1980s. It is still deteriorating rapidly, too.
Already, the share of men older than 20 with jobs was at its lowest point last month since 1983, and very close to the low point of the last 60 years. The share of women with jobs is lower than it was eight years ago, which never happened in previous decades.
Even Wall Street economists, whose analysis usually comes shaded in rose, seemed taken aback by the report. Goldman Sachs called the new numbers "horrendous." Others said "dreadful" and "almost indescribably terrible." In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley economists wrote, "Quite simply, there was nothing good in this report." HSBC forecasters said they now expected the Federal Reserve to reduce its benchmark interest rate all the way to zero.
Such language may sound out of step with a jobless rate that, despite its recent rise, remains at 6.7 percent; the rate exceeded 10 percent in the early 1980s. But over the last few decades, the jobless rate has become a significantly less useful measure of the country's economic health.
That is because far more people than in the past fall into the gray area of the labor market — not having a job and not looking for one, but interested in working. This group includes many former factory workers who have been unable to find new work that pays nearly as well and are unwilling to accept a job that pays much less. Some get by with help from disability payments, while others rely on their spouses' paychecks.
U.S. Job Losses Signal Recession Will Be Long, Deep
Employers cut payrolls last month at the fastest pace in 34 years as the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent, the highest level since 1993. The 533,000 drop brought cumulative job losses this year to 1.91 million, the Labor Department said yesterday in Washington.
"Almost all businesses are in survival mode, and they're slashing payrolls and investments just to conserve cash," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. "We're in store for some big job losses."
Comment: First of three economic posts today. My own company (unnamed by policy) has a hiring freeze. One of my kids is out of work (but has a part time job - was his 2nd job). For the first time in my life, I know personally probably at least a dozen who are out of work or soon will be.
Posted by Jim Peet at 12/06/2008 10:00:00 AM
Labels: 2007-20?? Recession, Employment report