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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #42 Miami Hurricanes
SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128
Miami Hurricanes (ACC #6; Coastal #4)
#42 2014
Results AP NR USA NR Strength:#38 Success:#48 Overall:#36
Record: 6-7 Bowl: Lost to South Carolina 24-21 (Independence)
Outlook Picks: AP NR | USA #37 | Lindy's #54 | Athlon #43 | Steele #25 | ESPN #29
Record: 7-5 Bowl odds: 75% Playoff odds: <1%
If Miami is just a little better than we project—or if they win all the close games—it could be the difference between 4-8 and 11-1.
4 ret. starters 2014 Scoring Offense: #61 (raw) #56 (adjusted for opposition)
2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #86 (adjusted)
With Duke Johnson gone, Brad Kaaya becomes the star of the offense; he just needs a little help from his friends.
2014 Passing Rank: #49 (raw) #47 (adjusted) 2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #37
2015 Projected Passing Rank: #54 (adjusted)
2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #65
Brad Kaaya (3,198 yards, 26 TDs, 12 int) was an unquestionable bright spot for the team last year as a freshman, and hopes are high going into his sophomore year. Will he be even better, or fall victim to the dreaded 'sophomore slump'? We think a bit of the latter might happen, but through no real fault of his own. The team's top three pass catchers from last year are gone, including Phillip Dorsett (871 yards, 10 TDs) and Clive Walford (676 yards). Herb Waters (277) is the leading returnee. Protection wasn't bad last year (21 sacks) but could get worse with a weaker offensive line. Six players are back who had 100+ receiving yards so some will need to step up, such as Stacy Coley and Rashwan Scott who have topped 500 yards in years past.
Rushing 2014 Rushing Rank: #50 (raw) #42 (adjusted) 2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #101 (adj.)
Duke Johnson is gone, and with him his 1,652 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Joe Yearby (509 yards) was pretty darn good as a freshman and he'll take over but the offensive line clearly looks weaker this year with 3+ starters gone. Daniel Isadora is the only full-time starter back, while sophs Nick Linder and Trevor Darling started part-time. So did Taylor Gadbois but he was dismissed. Miami is starting three sophomores so the line should improve over the next two years but for now, things look questionable. They also recently lost #3 rusher Gus Edwards (349 yards).
2014 Adjusted Stats: Rush Defense: #16 Pass Defense per-game: #13 Per-attempt: #12
5 ret. starters '14 Scoring Defense: #39 (raw) #27 (adjusted) '14 sacks: #67 '14 picks: #90
'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #27 (adjusted)
'15 sacks: #73 '15 picks: #62
Miami's defense was good across the board last year; though lacking in big plays they kept the yardage and points down. The defensive line is a question mark this year, though, with just one starter back—two are gone and another, Tyriq McCord, moves to linebacker. At linebacker they lose two starters—top tackler Denzel Perryman (110 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss) and Thurston Armbrister (5 sacks)—but gain McCord and #2 tackler Jermaine Grace moves in as a starter. The secondary is in decent shape with two starters back, and they get the return of Rayshawn Jenkins who started in 2013. When all is said and done we see the scoring defense being roughly the same as last year.
Special Teams/Situations
Kicking Game: Punter Justin Vogel (42.8 average) is back along with kicker Michael Badgley (14 of 18 field goals).
Return Game: Stacy Coley is back after averaging 7.0 yards per punt return and 22.5 on kickoffs.
Turnovers projection: Miami's turnover situation should be better in 2015, with more picks by the defense.
Coaching Hot Seat Ranking: #3 (HOT)
Al Golden was snakebit from the start here, with sanctions immediately hobbling his early progress. Just when things were looking better in 2013 at 7-0, Duke Johnson was lost for the year and the 'Canes finished 9-4. But for fans, the excuses have run out and last year's finish is one example. Miami was 6-3 and on their way to beating Florida State but couldn't hold on—no shame there. But losing the next two games as favorites was emblematic of the Golden era. For a program that expects over 9 wins a year Golden's 7-win average isn't cutting it, and unless this season is very good the job will be open.
Recruiting 2015 Recruiting Rank: #31 2014 Recruiting Rank: #10
Last year's recruiting class was great but 2015's is only average for the ACC. If Golden's job is a 50-50 proposition at the end of the season, he won't necessarily be able to claim great recruiting as a plus, since there are presumably many who could do just as well or better in south Florida.
Miami's first game was a good test to see how far the they'd advanced since the bowl loss to Louisville, and the answer after a 31-13 loss to the Cardinals was: not very far. But they grew quite a bit over the next few months. At 3-3 they had road losses to Nebraska (41-31) and Georgia Tech (28-17)but good home wins over Arkansas State (41-20) and Duke (22-10). The real progress was apparent when they beat Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina back-to-back-to-back. Peaking at the right time, they took on undefeated Florida State and led by 16. They couldn't sustain it and lost 30-26—and with it, their season collapsed. It just seemed they gave up, losing badly to Virginia (30-13) and Pitt (35-23), two teams they should have beaten easily. The defense played well in the Independence Bowl but they lost to South Carolina 24-21 to finish 6-7.
Last year's prediction: We put Miami at #40 pre-season, and since they finished #38 in Strength that was about right. Our projection was for a 7-5 season and they didn't quite get there. Game-by-game we had the 'Canes favored in 8 games, missing losses to Louisville, Virginia, and Pitt, and the win over Virginia Tech.
Miami 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5 Sat vs. Bethune-Cookman 99% W
9/12 Sat @ Florida Atlantic 85% W
9/19 Sat vs. Nebraska 60% W
10/1 Thu @ Cincinnati 47% L
10/10 Sat @ *Florida State 26% L
10/17 Sat vs. *Virginia Tech 41% L
10/24 Sat vs. *Clemson 45% L
10/31 Sat @ *Duke 55% W
11/7 Sat vs. *Virginia 74% W
11/14 Sat @ *North Carolina 41% L
11/21 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech 39% L
11/27 Fri @ *Pittsburgh 46% L
Straight up: 5-7 Cume: 7-5 Bowl eligible: 75%
There is good news and bad news on the schedule. First the bad news: the 'Canes are only clear favorites in four games this year. The good news? They are only clear underdogs in one game. That makes anything from 4-8 to 11-1 a reasonable outcome.
Two of the obvious wins are at the beginning of the season when the Hurricanes face Bethune-Cookman and Florida Atlantic. They host Nebraska, and though that game is marked as pretty close, for our purposes it's another win. It's also a sign-post game; if Miami loses, then they probably end up closer to 4-8 than 11-1.
Cincinnati on the road is a true tossup game, then they travel to Florida State which we mark as their only clear-cut loss; even that one doesn't look like a blowout at all.
The next three games are a perfect example of Miami's ACC schedule, as they get Virginia Tech and Clemson both at home, making those games very competitive, and face Duke on the road which makes that game closer, too. Virginia at home should be a win, then it's North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh, more games where we have the 'Canes a slight underdog.
This is a perfect example of the usefulness of the cumulative projection, as most of these games could go either way. Add up the games where we favor Miami and it looks like a bad season. Use the overall odds and it looks like another typical 7-win year for Golden. But looking at each game's odds, it's clear that Miami has the potential for a very good year, too.
This season, winning close games would make for a memorable year. But so far Al Golden's Miami teams haven't shown the ability to rise to the occasion. If they can do it, he deserves to stay. If they can't, they need to find someone who can inspire the team to greater heights.
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August 24, 2015 at 12:39 PM in 2015 preview | Permalink