148502411-Buzan-2011-a-World-Without-Superpowers-1.pdf
Alexandre Andrada
speichern148502411-Buzan-2011-a-World-Without-Superpowers-1... für später speichern
http://ire.sagepub.com/
The Inaugural Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture A World Order Without
Superpowers : Decentred Globalism
International Relations 2011 25: 3
The online version of this article can be found at:
http://ire.sagepub.com/content/25/1/3
http://www.sagepublications.com
On behalf of:
David Davies Memorial Institute for International Studies
Additional services and information for International Relations can be found at:
Email Alerts: http://ire.sagepub.com/cgi/alerts
Subscriptions: http://ire.sagepub.com/subscriptions
Reprints: http://www.sagepub.com/journalsReprints.nav
Permissions: http://www.sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav
Downloaded from ire.sagepub.com at b-on: 00900 Universidade Nova de Lisboa on September 5, 2011
25(1) 3–25
The Inaugural Kenneth N. © The Author(s) 2011
Reprints and permission: sagepub.
Waltz Annual Lecture co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav
ire.sagepub.com
A World Order Without
Superpowers: Decentred
The category of superpower, as distinct from great power, has become naturalized in the discourses
about international relations. But 'superpower' has only become common usage since the end of
the Second World War and in modern history cannot meaningfully be applied much further than
the 19th century. This article argues that superpowers are a historically contingent phenomenon
whose emergence rested on the huge inequality of power between the West and the rest of
the world that developed during the 19th century. As this inequality diminishes, the most likely
scenario for world politics is decentred globalism, in which there will be no superpowers, only
great powers. The largest section of the article uses a framework of material and social factors
to show why the US is unlikely to remain a superpower, and why China and the EU are unlikely
to become superpowers. The following three sections use the same framework to look more
briefly at why a world with only great powers is likely to take a more regionalized form; why
this might produce a quite workable, decentralized, coexistence international society with some
elements of cooperation; and what the possible downsides of a more regionalized international
order might be, focusing particularly on the problem of regional hegemony. The conclusions
offer five policy prescriptions for living in a decentred globalist world.
China, great power, hegemony, international society, regionalization, superpower, United States
Barry Buzan, London School of Economics, Department of International Relations, Houghton Street,
London WC2A 2AE, UK.
Email: b.g.buzan@lse.ac.uk
4	International Relations 25(1)
In 2004 I argued, in line with much mainstream thinking, that the most likely scenario for
the coming decades was continuation of the US as the sole superpower accompanied by
several great powers. This idea still forms the core of the debates about polarity. Its main
theme is whether or not the US will be able to preserve its sole superpower status, or
whether rising challengers, mainly China, will soon return the world order to bipolarity.
It is typical of the Western part of this debate to be looking for ways to preserve US
hegemony/leadership either by maintaining and exploiting a power advantage or by re-
legitimizing its leading role using institutions to accommodate rising powers.1 My sec-
ond most likely scenario from 2004 was one in which there would be no superpowers,
only great powers, and I argued that this would produce a rather uncertain world. I now
think that this scenario is becoming more likely, but can be seen in a more positive light.
I argue here that it offers an alternative third way of thinking about the coming world
order: not whether there will be one superpower or more, but no superpowers, only great
powers. We may be heading quite quickly into such a world, and this may be no bad
thing. The mainstream polarity debates typically ignore the fact that there is an alterna-
tive to having either to balance against the US or bandwagon with it. Others can, and
increasingly do, use the diminished power and authority of the US as a reason to ignore
or circumscribe it, and to carve their own pathways in regional and global politics.2
Continued US leadership is neither necessary nor, arguably, desirable to keep the world
order from falling into 1930s-style imperial competition.
This argument, therefore, steps outside the main lines of the current debates about
polarity. It also steps outside the neorealist framework created by Waltz in two ways.
First, I differentiate between superpowers and great powers in a way that neorealists can-
not, and see that distinction as being crucial to understanding an international system
operating on a truly global scale. By superpower I mean a polity whose political, mili-
tary, cultural and economic reach extends across the whole international system; by great
power I mean one whose reach extends only across more than one region.3 Second, I
reject the neorealist assumption that the major powers of the day will necessarily fall into
competition to dominate the whole system. I focus instead on the underpinnings within
such a regionalized world order for a coexistence international society with some ele-
ments of cooperation. The main part of the article defines superpowers and great powers,
and shows why superpowers are dying out. The second section argues that a world with
only great powers is likely to take a more regionalized form, and the third section
explores why this might work quite well. The fourth section suggests the possible down-
sides of a more regionalized international society, and the conclusions reflect on some
policy implications.
Why no superpowers?
That there is currently only one superpower is not contested, so it is necessary to argue
both that the US will soon cease to be a superpower, and that no other actor will rise to
that position. Since only China and the EU are seriously talked about as possible super-
powers, the argument will focus on them. Russia, Japan, India and Brazil are all talked
Buzan	5
about as actual or potential great powers, but seldom as possible superpowers (unless in
the meaningless construction: 'regional superpower'). There are two ways of approach-
ing the notoriously imprecise differentiation between superpowers and great powers on
the one hand, and the lesser members of international society on the other: material and
social. Waltz's definition is almost totally materialist, resting on the logic that the greater
the relative size (population, territory) and capability (military, economic, political) of a
unit, the more it identifies its own interest with the interest of the system.4 Hedley Bull's
definition has a materialist (military) benchmark, but is much more shaped by socially
constructed roles: does a state think of itself as being a great power or superpower, and
do others acknowledge this status?5
In what follows I will use both material and social considerations, and the latter both
internally and externally, to argue why we are facing a future with no superpowers. The
two hard parts of the case are establishing why the US will cease to be a superpower, and
why China will not become one. Making the case against the EU becoming a superpower
is easier. The broader argument is that the very category of superpower in its modern,
global sense arises from particular historical circumstances that are now receding into
the past. The idea that any country should have a powerful position planet-wide is, in a
general sense, an artefact of the peculiarly uneven distribution of power achieved by the
West during the 19th century. The industrial, capitalist and democratic revolutions in the
West briefly made such global imbalance possible. This condition was then artificially
amplified by the outcome of the Second World War, which brought down the European
empires, left much of the world either in ruins or politically unstable and marginal, and
elevated two great ideological rivals to global power. That world is fading fast. One of
the ideological rivals imploded in the early 1990s. This hugely uneven distribution of
power is fading away not just because the destructive effects of the Second World War
have long since been repaired, but also because the fruits of the revolutions that gave the
West its power advantage during the 19th century are now steadily, if still unevenly, dif-
fusing to China, India, Brazil and others. This diffusion is restoring something like the
global equilibrium of power that prevailed for millennia before the rise of the West. The
key difference is that the old equilibrium operated in a world in which most centres of
power and civilization were only in fairly thin contact with others, so much so that a full
and global international system cannot be said to have existed before the 19th century.
By contrast, the emergent equilibrium is operating in a tightly bound and interdependent
global international system and society. What we are seeing is the emergence of the first
truly post-colonial, global-scale international society.
Historical memory in International Relations (IR) is notoriously short, and we have
simply come to think of a hugely uneven distribution of power in favour of the West as
normal and durable. It is neither. It was exceptional, indeed unprecedented. And the con-
ditions on which it rested are dissolving in front of our eyes.
(i) The United States
In terms of material capability, the United States is the only state that has the relative
economic size, the military capability and the political and cultural status to play the
superpower role. Its relative economic weight is not declining precipitately, and its
military lead remains daunting. But the US is almost certainly in medium-term relative
material decline compared to rising powers, and the need for it to adjust to a more
multipolar world is a well-established theme in the literature.6 Yet loss of relative mate-
rial capability is probably not going to be the main factor moving the US away from sole
superpower status. The key factors in this move will be social, and they are working both
within the US, where the will to support a superpower role may well be waning, and
outside it, where the US is likely to find ever fewer followers, whether it wants to lead or
not. It is interesting to note how many commentators on US politics make the point that
the US is more likely to be driven out of its superpower status by the unwillingness of its
citizens to support the role than by the rise of any external challenger.7 And externally,
Waltz was right in his prediction that 'countries that wield overwhelming power will be
tempted to misuse it. And even when their use of power is not an abuse, other states will
see it as being so'.8 Several other American realists echo this worry, observing that there
is already a disjuncture between a US self-perception of benign leadership, and a wide-
spread image of it elsewhere as a threat whose foreign policy, particularly on trade and
the Middle East, is driven overwhelmingly by domestic politics.9 The superpower status
of the US rests as much, or possibly more, on its social status as on its material capability.
The fact that Japan and Europe broadly accept American leadership gives the US legiti-
macy, and insulates it from the formation of a counter-pole coalition. Changes in social
support on either the domestic or international level could thus quite quickly shift the US
from superpower to great power status.
Given the hyperactivity of US global political and military engagement since 1947, it
is easy to forget that isolationism was the country's founding creed. And as Darwin
notes: 'The American political system seemed poorly equipped for the formulation and
conduct of foreign policy, the continuity of which was easily wrecked on the shoals of
domestic controversy'.10 The division of powers plus a widespread disinterest and igno-
rance among the citizenry about the rest of the world explain why Washington has needed
to use crusading, securitizing rhetoric to sustain support for an activist global foreign
policy. The peripheral geographical positioning that once underpinned isolationism still
gives the US the option of detached offshore balancing.11 This policy requires only that
the US prevent any one power from becoming dominant in Eurasia, as Nazi Germany
and the Soviet Union aspired to do, and thus able to threaten the US. Otherwise it can
leave the rest of the world to look after itself. It is not impossible to imagine the US being
tempted to abandon its experiment in crusading liberalism and reverting to the more
detached revolutionary purism of being the 'city on the hill'.
Since the end of the Cold War, America's military-political global engagement has
been costly, unpopular and often unsuccessful. It has won the US more enemies than
friends, and increasingly lacks the ideological drivers that made its engagements in two
world wars and the Cold War so successful. Domestically, the liberal internationalist coali-
tion that underpinned America's outward turn after the Second World War has irretrieva-
bly dissolved into bitter party polarization.12 The misguided occupation of Iraq has left the
US worse off in both security and economic terms, and is an exemplar of extremely expen-
sive policy failure. The 'global war on terror' (GWoT) has failed to provide the basis for a
new crusade, degraded the freedoms and civil liberties that the US stands for, and eviscer-
ated its liberal reputation by exposing the willingness of the US to resort to torture.
If the internal factor is about the willingness of the US to play the leadership role neces-
sary for it to be a superpower, the external one is about whether, even if it continues to want
to lead, its legitimacy to do so will be accepted by others. Material weakening and erosion
of the will to lead can of course both affect the willingness of others to follow, but perhaps
more important than either of these, and considerably independent of them, is the declining
attractiveness and legitimacy of the US as the sole superpower and leader of international
society. On one level, the US has been impressively successful in fulfilling Nye's injunc-
tion that it needs 'other countries to want what it wants'.13 It seems unlikely that the US,
the EU and Japan will drift away from their strong commitment to democracy and market
economies, or that China and India will reverse the economic reform and opening up on
which their increasing wealth and power now depend. But, as many have observed, the US
position is increasingly contradictory.14 Washington wants to lead and be supported by
international society, while at the same time using both its own sense of exceptionalism
and its role as leader to exempt itself from many of the rules that it wants others to observe:
what John Ruggie has tellingly labeled 'American exemptionalism'.15 It, thus, both vio-
lates the rules it claims to be defending, and claims strong sovereignty for itself against
intervention by others, while preserving its own right to violate the sovereignty of others in
pursuit of its own objectives. Here lies the basis of the seemingly oxymoronic charge of
'liberal imperialism'. Because of this contradiction, the standing of the US is in notable
decline on three levels: the acceptability of its policies, its attractiveness as a model of the
future and the illegitimacy in international society of hegemony in any form.
Acceptability of US policies. The US, of course, has never been short of unpopular foreign
policies. From Cuba, Vietnam and Chile, and limited nuclear war, through its unques-
tioning support for Israel and its occupation of Iraq, to obstructionism on controlling
climate change and the use of torture, US policy has often been controversial among its
friends. There has never been a golden age when the US was universally admired by the
rest of the world. But during the Cold War, and to an extent in the 1990s, the impact of
particular disaffections was offset by the widespread general sense that the West and its
hangers-on were a lot better off with US leadership than without it. Over the last decade
that general sense has weakened rapidly, partly because there is no longer any great ideo-
logical struggle to sustain it, and partly because of the conspicuous turn to self-interested
unilateralism that marked the eight years of the Bush administration. A striking symbol
of this was the replacement of talk about 'friends and allies' or 'the free world' with a
harsher instrumental line about 'coalitions of the willing'. This rhetorical shift seemed to
abandon any US interest or belief in long-term friendships and alliances, and replace it
with a rational choice logic of immediate and specific shared interest. The US had rather
limited success in selling the GWoT as a global macro-securitization to replace the Cold
War,16 and, as a consequence, the particular policies of the US now stand largely on their
own terms, unshielded by the mediating effects of any overarching common cause or
closely shared identity. A brief look at three key policy areas – the Middle East/GWoT,
China and climate change – shows how the US stands ever more alone.
Disagreements over policy in the Middle East already rank as one of the conspicuous
areas of disaffection between the US and Europe, and this seems set to continue.17 The
Middle East is a profound mess and is likely to remain so. The main point for the
question of US superpower legitimacy is that many of the US interventions in the Middle
East, both those of the Bush administration and those more long-standing, are widely
perceived to have been counterproductive, not only feeding the terrorist problem,18 but
also deepening the many tragedies in the region. The occupation of Iraq in 2003 looks set
to generate far more and bigger problems than it has solved. More or less unconditional
US support for Israel is a perennial Washington idiosyncrasy that inspires little enthusi-
asm elsewhere, and has so far hamstrung the US from pushing decisively towards a two-
state solution to the Israel–Palestine problem. The Obama administration's more robust
line on the necessity of a two-state solution faces such daunting domestic and regional
obstacles that its chances do not look promising. This festering sore has grown steadily
worse, with Israel creating ever more difficult facts on the ground, and assisting in the
self-destruction of its Palestinian negotiating partner. US support for the Saudi regime
helps keep in power a government whose domestic deals with Wahabi Islamists recycles
large sums of oil money into the support of Islamic fundamentalism, though here it has
to be said that Europeans are just as culpable. Perhaps only on the question of preventing
the proliferation of nuclear weapons does US policy in the Middle East enjoy much sup-
port, but even that is undermined by the hypocrisy of the US turning a blind eye to
Israel's substantial nuclear arsenal while seeking to forbid Arab states and Iran from
acquiring their own deterrents.
During the Cold War the unattractive elements of US policy in the Middle East were
masked by the general agreement on the need to contain the Soviet Union. The GWoT
not only failed to extend this cover, but also amplified differences between the US and
its allies. After the Iraq fiasco and the Afghan quagmire, even ever-faithful Britain would
have trouble joining in any new US intervention in this region. Russia, China, Japan and
increasingly India have their own interests there, which are often in competition with
those of the US. Given both the deep divisions and antagonisms in the Middle East, and
its effective fragmentation by the West,19 the possibility of regional stability looks
remote. The US tie to Israel looks unlikely to change and will continue to poison
Washington's position in the region and much of the rest of the world. Unpopular US
policies and competing interests in the region from other powers provide no foundations
for legitimising US leadership.
US policy on China, though less controversial than that on the Middle East, also ben-
efited from the masking effects of shared interests. During the Cold War, containment of
China was part of the East–West struggle, and US cultivation of China after 1971 helped
to weaken the Soviet Union. The US role in facilitating China's 'reform and opening up'
since 1978 has also been broadly popular. What is now in prospect, however, is that the
long-standing drumbeat of concern in Washington about rising China as a peer competi-
tor will get louder as China does indeed grow in power.20 To the extent that realist think-
ing dominates in Washington, and the US retains its commitment to not tolerating any
peer competitors, then a rising China, whether peaceful or not, must appear threatening
to the US. The nature of the China that rises, however, will be crucial to whether others
share US perceptions of China as a threat. In the absence of any common cause, it is far
from clear that other powers will feel threatened by China's challenge to US hegemony.
If a rising China becomes ultra-nationalist, aggressive and militarist, then it could
well be that others would share US perceptions. But the Chinese leadership is determined
to avoid the mistakes made by Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union in their rising
period.21 If they can carry off their design for a 'peaceful rise', then it becomes possible
that US perceptions of China as threatening will not be shared widely, if at all. Those
many voices currently in opposition to US hegemony, and speaking of the need for a
more multipolar world order, might welcome China's rise. If China is relatively benign
in the sense of not using violence against its neighbours, and staying broadly within the
rules of the global economic order, Europe will not care much about its rise, and will not
feel threatened by it. Russia has worries about Chinese designs on the sparsely populated
territories of the Russian Far East. Yet the two countries have developed a quite stable
strategic partnership,22 have many useful economic complementarities, and share an
interest in non-intervention and regime security. Russia may well want to continue to
bandwagon with China against the US. India has to balance a growing economic rela-
tionship with China against some still sensitive territorial disputes and a desire not to be
overshadowed in status terms by China. Unless China turns nasty and threatening, India
will probably try to continue to play the US and China against each other as it does now,
leaving the main economic and political costs of balancing China to the US.23
The big question mark is Japan, which since the end of the Cold War has not only
maintained, but somewhat strengthened, its alliance with the US, and whose relationship
with China remains deeply clouded by unsettled historical issues. A considerable weight
of expert opinion thinks that Sino-Japanese relations are, underneath their formal politi-
cal correctness, bad and, on the level of society and pubic opinion, getting worse, with
both governments in different ways to blame.24 If China's rise is benign, but the US
securitizes it anyway, Japan will face very difficult choices. If it stays with the US, it
would find itself being the front line in a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing.
That might not look attractive compared with the options of either resolving the history
problems and bandwagoning with China or following India into a more independent,
middle-ground position between Washington and Beijing. Japan is the toughest problem
facing China's 'peaceful rise' strategy. But if China conducts its peaceful rise success-
fully, this US concern will be a parochial one, shared by few, possibly none, of the other
great powers. If China plays its hand cleverly, it could put the US more on its own in
relation to great power politics than it has been since before the First World War.
Climate change is a relatively new issue with only slight links back to the Cold War.
It poses questions of common fate for all of humankind and, if rising temperatures and
sea levels are to be controlled, requires collective action of a kind with serious economic
consequences. This could easily become the dominant issue for world politics, though
the scientific uncertainties are still sufficient that the exact timing and unfolding of it are
difficult to predict. Yet the US is already unpopular on climate change. The commitment
of Americans to a high consumption lifestyle, and the Bush administration's resistance to
serious pollution and emission controls, whether domestic or international, and even
denial that there was a problem, has in the eyes of many made the US more a part of the
problem than of the solution. Obama's enthusiasm for green energy as a fix for both the
environment and the economy has already been checked by the polarization in US poli-
tics, though developments in the private sector and at the level of state and city govern-
ments might well restore some US credibility in this area. However, it is less clear that
there is any fix for the problem of the unsustainable American lifestyle, and the
10	International Relations 25(1)
polarization of US politics will make it difficult, if not impossible, for the US to avoid
remaining a big part of the problem.
The US as a model and its claim to own the future. In addition to standing increasingly on
its own in the main areas of international policy, the US is losing its claim to be a model
and to own the future. That claim has long been based on the US championing of politi-
cal liberal values in the form of democracy and human rights, and economic liberal val-
ues in the form of free(r) trade and financial liberalization. There was a very substantial
element of hypocrisy in this position during the Cold War, yet, even so, much was done.
At this point, however, there is little scope left for the US to legitimize its leadership by
appealing to liberal values either political or economic. On the political side, the GWoT
means that Washington is still under pressure to prefer anti-terrorist governments to dem-
ocratic ones. US abuses of human rights at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, its policy of
'extraordinary renditions' and acceptance of de facto torture, as well as its fierce resist-
ance to the International Criminal Court, have gutted Washington's credibility to say
much about human rights. In some ways the 'civilian power' EU is now a better repre-
sentative of political liberal values. The Obama administration has a huge amount of
damage to repair before it can present the US as a beacon of political liberalism, and its
weakening position in Congress does not augur well.
In terms of economic liberalism, the Obama inheritance is even worse. Under Clinton
and Bush, the financial world took on a globalised life of its own. Even before the current
economic crisis, competitors to the dollar as reserve currency were on the rise, and US
indebtedness was weakening its position. On trade, the US had largely ceased to lead
anyway, its weakening economic position making it more protectionist. Obama's options
are massively constrained by the magnitude of the economic crisis. It is not clear that he
is an economic liberal, and, even if he is, many Democrats in Congress look likely to be
even less enthusiastic about further trade liberalisation than the Bush Republicans were.
The US led the world into this recession, and, badly damaged itself, cannot lead the
world out of it. It has neither the economic resources, nor, with the collapse of the
Washington consensus, the ideological authority to do so. If the world economy can be
managed globally at all, it will have to be done collectively (e.g. via the G20 and other
suchlike groups of leading powers), giving bigger voices to other players. With the
Washington consensus discredited, other ideas about how to run the global political
economy are in play, both European social markets, and the Beijing consensus.25 The
truth of Bromley's observation has been amplified by recent events: 'US economic lead-
ership power exists but it is a wasting asset … governance of the world economy is
something that would have to be accomplished collectively if it is to be accomplished at
all.'26 If attempts to get the global economy going again fail, or are too protracted and
costly, then the emergence of a more regionalized world political economy becomes
more likely (more on this later).
So America's claim to represent the (liberal) future is now blighted both by its own
failures and by the shortcomings of the liberal model itself. Whether an unsustainable
'American way of life' is an appropriate model for the rest of the world, and whether the
US economic model is either sustainable or desirable, are now both more open to serious
question. When the world looks at American health and welfare policies; at the financial
Buzan	11
mess; at a seeming US inclination to use force as the first-choice policy instrument; at the
influence of religion and special interest lobbies in US domestic politics; at a US govern-
ment that under Bush was openly comfortable with the use of torture and was re-elected;
and at a federal environmental policy until recently in denial about global warming, it
now more easily asks not just whether the US is a questionable model, but whether it has
become a serious part of the problem. The EU model looks more attractive to some, and
the emergent Chinese model to others. While some of this negative image was specific to
the Bush administration, and is being turned around by Obama, many of the deeper issues
are structural. The US is much more culturally conservative, religious, individualistic and
anti-state than most other parts of the West. Its religiosity, cultural conservatism and anti-
statism set it apart from most of Europe, while its individualism and anti-statism set it
apart from Asia. The US is no longer the only model of the future in play, and it is far from
clear that it will ever be able to recover the leading position that it once possessed.
The illegitimacy of hegemony in international society. The third factor weakening the posi-
tion of the US is not so much to do with the US itself as with the rising unacceptability of
any state being hegemonic in international society. The problem is the very fact of unipo-
larity itself. Several English School writers take a social view of the hegemony problem.
They argue that although the legitimacy of contemporary international society is based on
the principle of sovereign equality, and up to a point the equality of people and nations, it
is still riddled with the hegemonic/hierarchical practices and inequalities of status left
over from the period of Western world domination and empire.27 With the shift to unipo-
larity, the US became the principal representative and exponent of the hegemonic practice
by which the West continues to dominate international society. There is no 'satisfactory
principle of hegemony – rooted in a plausibly wide consensus'28 with which international
society might bridge this gap between its principles and its practices. A concentration of
power in one actor, as Clark, echoing Waltz, observes, disrupts the ideas of balance and
equilibrium that are the traditional sources and conditions for legitimacy in international
society.29 This problem would arise for any unipolar power, but it also connects back to
the specific US legitimacy deficit in which, under the Bush administration, the US lost
sight of what Watson calls raison de systeme ('the belief that it pays to make the system
work'), and this exacerbated what is anyway the illegitimacy of hegemony in itself.30 This
way of thinking lines up with Lake's arguments about the importance of authority in
legitimizing hierarchy. His arguments about the 'conferral of rights by the ruled' link to
much older arguments that 'the viability of colonial governments ultimately rested on
goodwill and cooperation rather than on enforced obedience'.31
This problem is not going to go away. Regarding the US, Calleo argues that, Obama
notwithstanding, 'hegemony is likely to remain the recurring obsession of its official
imagination, the idée fixe of its foreign policy'.32 More generally, anti-hegemonism is an
emergent property of post-colonial international society. As the two-century old power
gap closes, the rise of non-Western powers such as India and China will increase resist-
ance to the residuals of American/Western hegemony. Even where there is no new rising
great power, as in the Middle East, the force of anti-hegemonic opinion is already clear.
The general background of anti-hegemonism goes a long way towards explaining the
specific policy problems for the US in relation to the Middle East and China.
Taking all this into account, there is a good case for thinking that the standing of the
US as the sole superpower is fragile. This fragility is more based on social factors within
and outside the US than it is on material ones, and on all three social aspects – the accept-
ability of its policies, its attractiveness as a model of the future, and the (il)legitimacy in
international society of hegemony – the position of the US is weak. The dependence of
US superpower status on both the willingness of others to follow it and the willingness
of US citizens to support it has been masked by realist ways of thinking that put too much
emphasis on material capability alone. The 2008 economic crisis, however, has caused
even that mask to slip, and a leader without followers will soon become just an ordinary
great power, even if still the first among equals.
(ii) China
If the US is not likely to last long as the sole superpower, what is to stop a rising China
from stepping into its shoes, perhaps generating a dangerous power transition crisis along
the way? The same framework of material–social and domestic–international can be used
to interrogate China's case, as can the questions of policy, model and hegemony.
China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile as a potential new
superpower. In material terms it has a fast-growing and rapidly modernizing economy.
Although still technologically and organizationally behind in some respects, China is
successfully mastering many key technologies, and is making sustained progress across
the board in economic development. On the back of this expanding economy it is mod-
ernizing its conventional forces and upgrading a modest nuclear deterrent. Even though
China does not yet have the material capability for superpower status, its growth might
eventually deliver them. That delivery depends on a number of inherently unpredictable
variables, not least of which is how China handles the inevitable social strains and booms
and busts that accompany all forms of capitalist development. China is not rising by
itself however. While its material capabilities may well become formidable in an abso-
lute sense, China is, like the US, locked into the much talked about 'rise of the rest'. In
relative terms, the rise of the rest makes it increasingly difficult for any state to achieve
the material capacity for global dominance. Regardless of this, and again as with the US,
the main issues confronting China as a possible superpower are social rather than mate-
rial. While the US is losing the social attributes that supported its superpower standing,
China has yet to acquire them, and it is far from clear that it is well placed to do so.
In domestic terms China seems to be divided about whether or not it is ready to take
on a superpower role. On the nationalist wing there is justified pride in China's accom-
plishments, and an eagerness to regain top international status as a way of leaving behind
the bitter memory of the 'century of humiliation'. If the more strident nationalist ten-
dency comes to dominate in China, and the country begins to throw its weight around, it
would destroy the peaceful rise strategy, make China seem threatening to both its neigh-
bours and the US, and undermine its position in international society.
Yet so far China's current behaviour remains more in thrall to Deng's famous advice
that China should keep a low profile during its rise, bide its time, conceal its capabilities
and avoid leadership.33 Above all it wants to avoid falling into open rivalry with the US.
Speeches given by President Hu put strong emphasis on a strict interpretation of sovereign
equality and non-intervention, and the desirability of preserving the distinctiveness of
cultures, social systems and paths of development.34 China stands against hegemony and
for a more equal role for developing countries in world politics, and it appears to be silent
on whether or not great powers should have a privileged management role in a multipolar
system. The leadership has no coherent grand strategy, its outlook is defensive and it is
primarily concerned about maintaining internal stability and development.35 Indeed, it
sees China's development as its principal contribution to the world, helping to build com-
mon prosperity and increasing the sum of human knowledge and technology.36 In effect,
China is saying that its own problems of development are sufficiently huge that they
absorb all of its capacity to manage, and that because China is so large a part of human-
kind, successful management of its own development will benefit everyone. If ������������
this ten-
dency dominates, then China seems unready in itself to take up the burdens of a superpower
role. Although it has come a long way in its diplomatic engagement, China is in some
ways still playing the 'diplomatic apprentice' in international society.37
On the external side, the most striking fact about China is that it has no major power
friends. Its 'strategic partnership' with Russia is more one of convenience between mutu-
ally suspicious authoritarian regimes. Both are more opposed to the US/West than they
are fearful of each other and, because they are geographical neighbours, both need to
manage their borders and spheres of influence.38 This lack of powerful friends means that
China has little of the political capital necessary to build a superpower position.
Acceptability of China's policies. In terms of the acceptability of its policies, China has far
less baggage than the US. Much of its policy is regionally focused. Its wider-ranging poli-
cies towards the US, Iran and Africa may be controversial in the West, but they are broadly
acceptable in many other quarters. On the specific issue of climate change, China's recent
performance at the Copenhagen summit suggests that it, like the US, is a prisoner of its
domestic concerns and in danger, therefore, of being seen as part of the problem.
More important in China's case than specific policies is the question of its overall lack
of legitimacy as a leader in international society. As noted earlier, and as I have argued in
detail elsewhere,39 China does not yet seem to have a coherent view of either what kind
of state it wants to be, or what kind of international society it would like to be part of. To
the extent that its vision can be inferred, it seems to offer a mix of economic liberalism
and political and social conservatism that would be either unacceptable to most Western
countries (because it fails to link together the economic and political sides of the liberal
agenda in a positive view of cultural and political convergence), or impossible (because
the operation of the global market is too powerful to coexist with big cultural and politi-
cal differences and one or the other has to give). It is easy to see the political attraction
of this combination to China's leaders, because it allows China to remain both non-
Western and non-democratic, while at the same time allowing it to rise peacefully on the
back of the global market and interdependence. The contradictions in the Chinese view
play to those non-Chinese of a realist disposition who fear that a risen China will play
ruthless power politics once it has the capability. In other words, for realist-minded out-
siders it is easy to read China's vision as simply wanting to take the advantages of partici-
pating in the global economy in order to increase its power and wealth, without paying
the cost of social and political convergence. In the liberal perspective, it is only the social
and political convergence (liberal democratic peace) that makes the interdependence of
the global market acceptable in political and security terms. A rising non-democratic
power thus threatens the stability of the international society on which its rise depends.
As Ramo argues, echoing Nye's injunction to the US cited earlier: 'If China wants to …
achieve Peaceful Rise, it is crucially important that it get other nations to buy into the
world view it proposes'.40 As long as China has a communist government, even one
advocating market communism, it is unclear how it can escape from this dilemma. Being
an ideological outlier in international society poses huge difficulties for China's accept-
ability as a superpower.
China as a model. Part of America's strength as a superpower was its standing as a
model for others. Its conspicuous economic and cultural success, and the claimed foun-
dation for this success in a universally applicable liberal ideology, underpinned the
claim of the US to own the future of humankind. China's current model of authoritarian
development might well be superficially attractive to leaderships in many developing
countries, but there are big questions about how sustainable it is, and how applicable it
is to other countries. China no longer represents a coherent ideology, and its self-cen-
tred view of its own development is symbolised for outsiders by the often-heard phrase
'Chinese characteristics', with its suggestion of an inward-looking type of national
exceptionalism. Unlike the universalist pretentions of American liberalism, 'Chinese
characteristics' points to a culturally unique way of doing things that is not necessarily
relevant to those outside Chinese culture. China, therefore, does not have the kind of
soft power given by representing either a universalist ideology or a free civil society,
and is much less well placed than the US to get its benign self-view accepted abroad.
In addition, its unique size and history do not make it an easy model for others to
emulate.
The illegitimacy of hegemony in international society. At the global level, a rising China
faces the same general opposition to hegemony as the US; although the US has the
benefit both of a reputational carry-over from its successful leadership during the Cold
War, and the still significant residual appeal of its universal ideology. China, however,
has neither, and its outlier status in ideological terms means that it faces an uphill strug-
gle to avoid triggering anti-hegemonic responses, both regionally and globally, as its
power grows.
One can conclude both that China is not really ready to take up a superpower role and
that it is not well positioned globally to do so. Its material progress is promising, but is
the relatively easy part. On the social side, the problems are much more formidable.
Unlike the US, China does not yet have much to offer by way of establishing its legiti-
macy as a global leader. It represents no universal ideology and has no clear vision of
how international society should be organized. Neither its communism nor its national-
ism has much appeal outside its borders, and, given the country's many unique charac-
teristics, it is far from clear how applicable its development model is to others. China has
in some ways moved beyond its 'apprentice' phase in its international relations, but it has
few of the social resources, either internal or external, necessary for claiming legitimacy
as a global superpower.
(iii) The EU
The EU is still surprisingly widely talked about as a potential superpower,41 but despite
its promise in some factors it has one fatal flaw. In material terms, the EU is second only
to the US in overall size and capability of its economy, command of technology, finance
and suchlike. Its military capability is far behind that of the US and more comparable
with that of China, but that is not the EU's main problem in the superpower stakes.
In social terms, at the international level the EU looks in many ways to be better
placed than either the US or China. It has high overall legitimacy as representative of a
middle-ground social democracy that avoids the extremes of both Washington's neolib-
eralism and Beijing's authoritarian capitalism. Its foreign policy record is pretty good.
Many like what the EU does in the Middle East and on the environment, and wish it
would do more and develop a stronger presence. The EU has no politico-military or sta-
tus rivalries with other rising powers such as China, India or Brazil, and does not seem
even to feature much in the US's concerns about rising peer competitors. Perhaps its only
troubled relationship is with Russia, but then Russia has many troubled relationships.
The EU also has considerable standing as a model and comparator for other regional
integration projects. Although not everyone else wants to go down the institutionalized
regional integration model pioneered by the EU, it is unquestionably the most successful
in creating a post-Westphalian form of international political economy based on inter-
governmental organizations. It is admired as a security community in which some very
deep historical enmities have been put firmly in the past. The EU even has less trouble
with anti-hegemony than either the US or China. Given its intrinsically regional basis, it
is well placed to avoid the suspicions by outsiders of hegemonic intent that attach to both
American and Chinese power. Many of its neighbours from Eastern Europe through
Turkey and Georgia to Morocco want to join.
Despite all of these promising qualities, the fatal flaw lies in the EU's domestic soci-
ety and politics. There is little support at the level of the citizenry for the EU to have a
larger and wider international engagement, and the EU's political elites are divided on
the question. Their recent failure to use the new roles of the President of the European
Council and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security
Policy to upgrade the EU's actor capacity internationally is but the latest symptom of the
EU's deep unwillingness to become a coherent actor on the global stage. Minor political
figures have been appointed to the new jobs, and there is no significant concentration of
authority or increase in decision-making capacity. In socio-political terms, the EU is in a
state of domestic unreadiness for a superpower role that makes China look like a model
of political coherence, and even makes chronically reticent Japan look robust. Realists
will of course attribute this weakness to the fact that the EU is not a state, and therefore
lacks the political coherence to be a superpower. There is something in that argument,
but it does not cover the whole case. It is entirely possible to envisage a sui generis post-
modern entity like the EU acting as a new kind of superpower in a globalizing world.
Talk of 'normative' and 'civilian' power Europe hints at this,42 and suggests that China
and the US might be a bit old-fashioned in their materialist, machtpolitik approach to
superpowerdom. If this option to be a postmodern superpower does exist, the EU has not
taken it and does not look to be capable of doing so for the foreseeable future.
I conclude that there is a good chance that the US will fail to sustain its current posi-
tion as the sole superpower, and that no other state will rise to that rank. If this prognos-
tication is correct, then the emergent post-colonial world order will have no superpowers,
but several great powers. The natural dynamic of such a world will be towards a more
regionalized international order.43
Why a More Regionalized International Order?
Why should the natural dynamic of a post-colonial world with no superpowers and sev-
eral great powers be towards a regionalized international order and what would this look
like in practice? Any argument in favour of a regionalizing scenario has to establish the
material and social foundations for regions along the same lines as used to discuss super-
powers in the previous section. It has to show how a territorializing practice such as
regionalization can prevail in a world in which globalization has been having strong de-
territorializing effects.
The material foundations for a regionalized order are quite easy to see, and follow on
directly from the discussion about the US, China and the EU in the previous section.
There is not much dispute that the international system is moving towards a less uneven
distribution of power. In the shorter term, the unnatural dominance of the US in the years
following the Second World War has been steadily eroded, first by the recovery of Europe
and Japan and later by the rise of new economic powers. In the longer term, the huge
predominance that enabled the West and Japan to overwhelm the rest of the world during
the 19th century is steadily giving way as modernization spreads more widely through
the international system. Japan was the first non-Western state to achieve modern great
power standing over a century ago. China has now joined the ranks, and India seems not
far behind. In addition there are a number of substantial industrializing regional powers
such as Brazil, South Africa and Turkey. The steady spread of industrialization and mod-
ernization to more and more countries is partly a matter of national policy and partly a
result of the natural systemic mechanisms of capitalism. Diffusing the foundations of
power ever more widely not only generates new great and regional powers, but also
makes it increasingly difficult for any state to achieve the relative capability necessary
for superpower status. A corollary of diffusion is that it is not only relative capability that
is affected, but also absolute capability. As illustrated in Vietnam, Somalia, Afghanistan
and Iraq, it is no longer possible even for superpowers easily to occupy countries where
there is firm local resistance. Furthermore, as shown by Israel, South Africa, North
Korea, Pakistan and probably soon Iran, even quite modest powers can acquire minimum
nuclear deterrents. The world is returning to something like the more natural, even dis-
tribution of power that existed before power became extremely concentrated in the West.
The social foundations for a regionalized order start from the strong anti-hegemonism
discussed in the previous section. This is expressed in widespread calls for a more
multipolar international system. Only in some parts of the EU (most obviously Britain
and Eastern Europe) and Japan is there real enthusiasm for the maintenance of US
hegemony. Added to this is the significant likelihood of a partial retreat from globaliza-
tion, particularly financial liberalization, following the economic crisis starting in 2008.
The Washington consensus is as dead as communism, and what has been demonstrated
is the political inability to manage a financially liberalized global economy. It is not so
much an overstretch of US power (though that too) as an overstretch of global manage-
ment capacity. Hegemonic stability has proved flawed, and there is insufficient consen-
sus on which to build the necessary collective global management. The economic crisis
has made clearer what was already becoming obvious in the 1990s and 2000s, namely
that the Western victory over the Soviet project was not going to usher in a world homog-
enized along Western lines. Although nearly all accepted that some form of capitalism
was the only way forward, there were many variations on this theme. There is also no
consensus about either democracy or Western versions of human rights, and while there
is a strong consensus about the equality of peoples, there is none about individualism
versus collectivism or about the role of religion in political life (never mind the addi-
tional difference about which religion). The system level is thus in many ways ripe for
regionalization along lines defined by political, economic and cultural comfort zones.
Speculations about the nature of a benign regionalized international order have been
around for a long time in the IR literature, and generally rest on the assumption of a
world organized around three cores: the US, the EU and East Asia.44 The practice of
regionalization is already well established. Its emergence can be explained as a response
to globalization both as a fallback against the possible failure of globalization, and as a
strategy to acquire more weight to operate in a globalized world. The EU and NAFTA are
only the most obvious examples of this development. To them can be added Mercosur,
ASEAN, the CIS, SARC, SADC, SCO, ECOWAS and other regional groupings built
around economic and political cooperation. Of course, not all of these are equally suc-
cessful or influential, but they do show how widespread the regionalizing impulse is, and
in the backwash of the current economic crisis and decline of US leadership this impulse
has every opportunity to grow stronger.
That said, existing practice does not provide a clear template for what a regionalized
world order would look like. It could, as the list of regional organizations just given sug-
gests, be quite fragmented, with anything up to a dozen regions. Or it could, as the sce-
narios of Kupchan and Helleiner suggest, be concentrated into three big groupings.
Would South America go with the US along NAFTA lines, or could Brazil be the core of
its own regional grouping? Will the West dissolve into American- and EU-centred group-
ings or will Atlanticism define a larger core? What happens to sub-Saharan Africa and
the Middle East where there are neither core powers, nor shared institutions strong
enough to sustain a coherent region? These are interesting and important questions, but
the uncertainties they raise do not stand in the way of concluding that in a world without
superpowers, the general move towards a more regionalized international order is both
plausible and quite likely. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East are going to be trou-
blesome zones under any scenario. Which great powers end up associated with which
region, or decide to form their own, is less important than the dynamics pushing towards
some form of regionalized international order.
Why Not Worry?
There are many reasons to think that a regionalized international order would work quite
well. The generic worry about such an order stems from the experience of most of the
20th century, when imperial powers competed with each other either over their spheres
of influence or over whether one of them could dominate the whole world, and the 1930s'
experience is often cited as a warning against going down this route.45 For several rea-
sons the danger of a struggle for global hegemony seems no longer very salient. First, the
West is in relative decline, and other regions are mainly defensive in outlook, trying to
maintain their political and cultural characteristics, and find their own route to moderni-
zation, against Western pressure. Nobody else obviously wants the job of global leader.
Second any potential global hegemon will be constrained both by the breadth and depth
of anti-hegemonism, and by the difficulty of acquiring the necessary material preponder-
ance and social standing. Third, there are no deep ideological or racist differences to fuel
conflict like those that dominated the 20th century. Fourth, all the great powers fear both
war and economic breakdown, and have a commitment to maintaining world trade.
Nobody wants to go back to the autarchic, empire-building days of the 1930s.
In addition, a good case can be made that sufficient shared values exist to underpin
a reasonable degree of global-level coexistence and cooperation even in a more region-
alized international order. Logics additional to Waltz's unit veto ideas about the prolif-
eration of nuclear weapons46 are in play: cultural, political and economic factors can
also work to produce a stable international order. The world will certainly divide on
whether the move towards such an order is a good thing or not. Liberals, both in the
West and elsewhere, will lament the weakening of their universalist project, and fear
the rise of various parochialisms, some possibly quite nasty. Whatever its merits, a
more regionalized world order would mark a retreat from universalist liberal agendas
of both a political and an economic sort. The loss of hegemonic leadership would prob-
ably mean a reduction in the overall management capacity of the system, though even
that is not a given. One should not underestimate the possibilities for innovation on this
front once the now in-built habit of dependence on US leadership is broken. On the
economic side, regions would still provide a halfway house for economies of scale, and
there would still be a lot of global trade and cooperation on many functional matters
from big science to environmental management. It is not without significance that even
during the depths of the Cold War, the Americans and the Soviets were able to negoti-
ate on common survival issues such as nuclear testing, non-proliferation and arms
control. However, there would no longer be an attempt to run a financially integrated
global economy.
Some in the West would be relieved to end an increasingly outdated, unsuccessful,
unpopular and costly hegemony, and many in other parts of the world would be equally
glad to get the West off their backs. For those who think that the tensions among a ram-
pant global economy, a thin interstate society and a humankind still deeply divided by
identities laid down centuries or millennia ago are becoming too great to handle, some
retreat from the overambitions of global governance might be welcome. Perhaps the
premature attempt at global governance has created more management problems than
current human social and political capacities are able to solve. A less ambitious world
order, with regions looking after themselves more, might well remain peaceful and
involve fewer frictions and failures. A consensus might emerge that a period of regional-
scale experiments in organizing a capitalist political economy is desirable before any
return to global governance is attempted.
The big question would be whether a world regionalized in this way could still come
up with the level of global management necessary to deal with collective problems such
as climate change, crime, terrorism, trade, migration and arms control. Grounds for con-
fidence here can be found in the degree to which a number of key institutions have been
naturalized across nearly all of international society. Some of the more liberal institutions
(democracy, human rights) are of course contested even at the elite level. Yet quite a few
other institutions have become substantially naturalized across many populations. At the
level of state elites, sovereignty, territoriality, non-intervention, diplomacy, international
law, great power management, nationalism, self-determination (not all versions), popular
sovereignty, progress, equality of people(s) and, up to a point, the market (more for trade
and production than finance) are all pretty deeply internalized and not contested as prin-
ciples. Particular instances or applications may excite controversy, but the basic institu-
tions of a pluralist, coexistence, interstate society have wide support among states, and
pretty wide support amongst peoples and transnational actors. Most liberation move-
ments seek sovereignty. Most peoples are comfortable with nationalism, territoriality,
sovereignty and the idea of progress. Most transnational actors want and need a stable
legal framework. Even as Western power declines, it does not seem unreasonable to
think that most of these pluralist institutions will remain in place, as too might the mod-
est, and hopefully increasing, level of commitment to environmental stewardship.
These shared institutions provide an important foundation for the maintenance of interna-
tional order among regional international societies. The reduced management capacity
caused by weaker leadership and the removal of hegemony at the global level would to some
extent be balanced by a reduced agenda of things to be managed. A world without a central
hegemony would have much less Western interference in other parts of the world, and there-
fore might well have fewer of the type of global problems that arise from such interference,
such as al Qaeda. Tensions over hegemonic interventions would decline if regions were, for
better or worse, left more to handle their own affairs. There might also be a considerably
more modest view of how much economic integration was desirable at the global level. A
regionalized world under contemporary conditions would not look like the 1930s. Its interac-
tion culture47 would be one of friends and rivals, not one of rivals and enemies.
Downsides?
The main danger in a no-superpower system is that one or more great powers will seek
to reoccupy a superpower role, but that seems unlikely under contemporary conditions.
The other danger is of more local great power rivalries about boundaries and spheres of
influence. The geographical separation of a globally distributed set of great powers
makes Asia the most likely area for this problem because of its concentration of substan-
tial and rising powers. But even in Asia, the diffusion of power and aversion to being
seen as imperialist makes major conflicts unlikely. Unlike before 1945, empire-building
is deeply unfashionable, and there are few signs that Russia, China, Japan and/or India
want to become major rivals over territory or spheres of influence.
Perhaps the key downside risk of a more regionalized international order is that
smaller states and peoples within regions would be at risk of becoming the vassals of
their local suzerain power(s), and having little or no recourse to outside help or support
other than disaster relief. Signs of this problem are visible in the long-standing concerns
of India's South Asian neighbours about New Delhi's dominance in the region, and in the
worries of Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines about China's extensive
claims in the South China Sea. Thus, the most obvious logical flaw in the argument for a
broadly benign view of a more regionalized international order is that the widespread
anti-hegemonism that works against superpowers globally will also work against the
dominant power(s) in a region. Some might well fear that the hegemonic dynamics of
their local region will be nastier than Western hegemony. Russia does not hesitate to use
force and coercion against its weaker neighbours. India's smaller neighbours, especially
Pakistan, vigorously resist its hegemony. Historical memories weigh heavily against
both Japan and China as leaders in East Asia. The US has long been less than loved by
its neighbours in Latin America. South Africa's dominance in its sphere is resented by
some of its neighbours. In the Middle East, any moves towards leadership by Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, Iran or Iraq are immediately contested by the others.
There is no doubt that a regionalized world would present a rather varied picture in this
respect. Some regions, most obviously the EU and North America, already possess robust
intergovernmental organizations and habits that can mediate concerns about hegemony.
Others, such as South America and increasingly East Asia, possess quite good institutions
that may well be able to play this role. Yet others, such as West and Southern Africa,
South Asia, and the Middle East, have institutions that may be too feeble to mediate local
concerns about hegemony. There might well also be zones of conflict in parts of Africa
and the Middle East where no local powers are strong enough to provide regional order,
disputes are many, and local groups are armed and ready to fight. This sounds bad, but in
practice might not be worse than what already exists in those regions. The arguments
about zones of peace and zones of chaos48 will hold regardless of the scenarios about
great powers and superpowers discussed in this article. If outsiders were less involved,
there would be less political spillover and blowback. Where institutions are weak, a lot
will depend on the distribution of power and the attitude of the powerful. Where the dis-
tribution of power is diffuse, as in the Middle East, perhaps the best that can be hoped for
is a managed balance of power. Where power is concentrated, as in the former Soviet
Union and South and East Asia, much will depend on the policy of the leading power(s).
In this respect, China's policy of peaceful rise may be a pointer. The Chinese govern-
ment is aware of the problem of anti-hegemonic reactions to its rise and, with the excep-
tion of its bitter relationship with Japan, mostly seeks to behave as a good neighbour.
Since China, India and Brazil have such strong anti-hegemonic traditions themselves,
there is ground for hope that, as a more regional based world order emerges, they will be
able to manage both the anti-hegemonic concerns of the smaller states within their
region, and their relations with other great powers and their regions.
I have argued here for a 'third way' between those who believe in ongoing US hegemony
and those who believe in the necessity for the US to take a more accommodative leader-
ship role in a multi-power world order. This 'third way' departs from the essentially
Western status quo motivation of the mainstream debates and both expects and welcomes
a more radical transformation in the world order. In this 'third way', there are no super-
powers only great powers and regional powers, capitalism in various versions is the
accepted form of political economy, regional orders are stronger than the global one, and
at the global level there is a well-grounded pluralist international society mainly moti-
vated by coexistence, but with significant elements of cooperation around collective
problems (e.g. arms control, environmental management) and projects (e.g. trade, big
science). This world order is shaped by a more equitable global distribution of power, the
availability of weapons of mass destruction, a powerful norm of anti-hegemony and the
conspicuous and pressing presence of collective problems. This combination makes a
more 'live and let live' mode of coexistence both possible and necessary. It embodies
major structural differences from the 1930s that make the two cases not analogous. This
world order without superpowers might be seen both as the successor to the unbalanced
Western era of the 19th and 20th centuries, in which one civilization imposed itself mas-
sively on all of the others, and as the restoration of the classical order, in which the dis-
tribution of civilization and the distribution of power were fairly evenly matched and
evenly distributed. The unique feature of this 'third way' is that for the first time it com-
bines both a relatively even distribution of power worldwide and a densely integrated
and interdependent global system and society. This might be labelled decentred glo-
balism to contrast it with the centred globalism captured in the many core–periphery
characterizations of the modern world order. It is a label that expresses the emergence of
a truly post-colonial world order: a return to the more even distribution of power of pre-
modern times, but in the globally integrated context created by modernity.
If decentred globalism is both plausible and possibly desirable, what are its prescrip-
tive implications? The mainstream debates all seek to preserve some form of the Western
status quo, a position I argue is historically, and perhaps morally, unsustainable. Hard
realists believe that the US needs to defend its position against would-be superpower
challengers. Believers in the 'power gap' think that the US should still use its power to
reshape international society in line with its own values. Those of a more liberal disposi-
tion seek to find compromises in which a US-led liberal order is maintained in a less
hegemonic and more institutional manner that accommodates rising powers. What pol-
icy prescriptions follow from the arguments in this article? By way of opening a debate
on decentred globalism, I offer the following five thoughts:
1.	There is no particular need for the US to see off challengers to its sole superpower
status, first, because there are none, and, second, because that status is anyway
indefensible both socially and materially.
2.	After the collapse of communism and the fall of the Washington consensus eve-
ryone should feel ideologically both more open and more humble, and accept that
what is needed is a period of competitive experimentation with the political econ-
omy of capitalism. Let the US continue its love affair with economic liberalism,
Europe its with social liberalism, China and Russia theirs with authoritarian capi-
talism, and so on. Everyone should relax at bit, take a 'live and let live' attitude,
and see how these different modes succeed or fail in producing the good life.
Since no known alternative path to durable power exists, the general commitment
to some form of capitalism is now quite deeply rooted.
3.	All great powers need to look more to their regions and how to create stable,
consensual and legitimate international societies there, and perhaps somewhat
less to their relationships with each other. Traditional security concerns are no
longer the key factor in relations amongst the great powers. China needs to think
more about its relations with Japan and South-east Asia and less about those with
the US, and the US needs to think more about its hemisphere and less about Asia
and the Middle East. That is the decentring part of decentred globalism.
4.	That said, all great powers also need to be aware of the substrate of ideas and
institutions on which they agree, and to build on this to create not just a coexist-
ence international society in which different modes of capitalism can live together
peacefully, but also a cooperative one capable of handling joint projects such as
world trade and big science, and collective action problems such as the environ-
ment and nuclear proliferation. Developing an interaction culture of friends and
rivals is important.
5.	The West as a whole, and the US in particular, need to accept the fact that they no
longer own the future. They can take some satisfaction from having imposed
much of their political, economic and social form onto the rest of the world, and
so substantially shaped the direction in which the future will unfold. Now, how-
ever, they have to both acknowledge that not all of this was either good or well
done, and let the rest of the world experiment on how best to accommodate its
various cultural and historical characteristics to the Western legacy.
This article is an edited version of the Inaugural Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture, delivered at
Aberystwyth University on 14 October 2010 under the auspices of the Department of International
Politics. In addition to the Department of International Politics, the lecture series is sponsored by
the David Davies Memorial Institute of International Studies, Sage publishers and the journal
International Relations through the royalties of the book Realism and World Politics (London:
Routledge, 2011).
1	See, for example, Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, World Out of Balance (Princ-
eton: Princeton University Press, 2008); G. John Ikenberry, 'Liberal Internationalism 3.0:
America and the Dilemmas of Liberal World Order', Perspectives on Politics, 7(1), 2009, pp.
71–87; David Lake, Hierarchy in International Relations (Ithaca: Cornell University Press,
2	On the degrading of US authority, see Lake, Hierarchy, pp. 185–6; and Barry Buzan, 'A
Leader without Followers? The United States in World Politics after Bush', International
Politics, 45(5), 2008, pp. 554–70. The regional alternative does get some, usually quickly
dismissed or negative, notice: Lake, Hierarchy, pp. 83–5, 181; Ikenberry, 'Liberal Interna-
tionalism', p. 83.
3	For detailed discussion on these definitions, see Barry Buzan, The United States and the
Great Powers (Cambridge: Polity, 2004), pp. 46–76.
4	Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979),
pp. 72–3, 131, 198.
5	Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society (London: Macmillan, 1977), pp. 200–2.
6	Charles A. Kupchan, 'After Pax Americana: Benign Power, Regional Integration and the
Sources of a Stable Multipolarity', International Security, 23(2), 1998, pp. 40–79. Charles
A. Kupchan, The End of the American Era: US Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the
Twenty-First Century (New York: Alfred Knopf, 2002). Simon Bromley, American Power
and the Prospects for International Order (Cambridge: Polity, 2008).
7	David Calleo, 'The United States and the Great Powers', World Policy Journal, 16(3), 1999,
pp. 11–19; Richard N. Haass, 'What to Do with American Primacy', Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct
1999 (web offprint, 12 pp.); Ethan B. Kapstein, 'Does Unipolarity Have a Future?', in Ethan
B. Kapstein and Michael Mastanduno (eds), Unipolar Politics: Realism and State Strategies
After the Cold War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999) pp. 468, 484; David A.
Lake, 'Ulysses's Triumph: American Power and the New World Order', Security Studies,
8(4), 1999, p. 78; Michael Mastanduno and Ethan B. Kapstein, 'Realism and State Strate-
gies after the Cold War', in Kapstein and Mastanduno (eds) Unipolar Politics, pp. 14–20;
Kupchan, The End of the American Era, pp. 25–38; Peter J. Spiro, 'The New Sovereigntists:
American Exceptionalism and Its False Prophets', Foreign Affairs, 79(6), 2000, pp. 9–15.
8	Kenneth N. Waltz, 'The New World Order', Millennium, 22(2), 1993, p. 189. See also Ken-
neth N. Waltz, 'Structural Realism after the Cold War', International Security, 25(1), 2000,
pp. 13, 27.
9	Samuel P. Huntington, 'The Lonely Superpower', Foreign Affairs, 78(2), 1999, pp. 42–3;
Davis B. Bobrow, 'Visions of (In)Security and American Strategic Style', International Stud-
ies Perspectives, 2(1), 2001, pp. 6–8; Andrew J. Bacevich, American Empire: The Realities
and Consequences of US Diplomacy (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2002), pp.
88, 90; Clyde P. Prestowitz, Rogue Nation: American Unilateralism and the Failure of Good
Intentions (New York: Basic Books, 2003).
10	John Darwin, After Tamerlane (London: Penguin, 2008), p. 468.
11	Christopher Layne, 'From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing: America's Future Grand
Strategy', International Security, 22(1), 1997, pp. 86–124; Edward Olsen, US National
Defense for the Twenty-First Century (London: Frank Cass, 2002).
12	Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz, 'Dead Center: The Demise of Liberal Internationalism
in the United States', International Security, 32(2), 2007, pp. 7–44.
13	Joseph S. Nye, 'Soft Power', Foreign Policy, 80, 1990, pp. 166–7.
14	Kalevi J. Holsti, 'Theorizing the Causes of Order', in Cornelia Navari (ed.), Theorizing Inter-
national Society (London: Palgrave, 2009), pp. 141–3; Tim Dunne, 'Society and Hierarchy in
International Relations', International Relations, 17(3), 2003, pp. 303–20.
15	John Ruggie, 'American Exceptionalism and Global Governance: A Tale of Two Worlds?',
Working Paper No. 5, Corporate Social Responsibility Initiative, Harvard University, April
2004, pp. 3–4.
16	Barry Buzan, 'Will the "Global War on Terrorism" Be the New Cold War?', International
Affairs, 82(6), 2006, pp. 1101–18.
17	Anouar Boukhars and Steve A. Yetiv, '9/11 and the Growing Euro-American Chasm over the
Middle East', European Security, 12(1), 2003, pp. 64–81.
18	Dana H. Allin, 'The Atlantic Crisis of Confidence', International Affairs, 80(4), 2004,
pp. 649–63; Paul Wilkinson, 'International Terrorism: The Changing Threat and the EU's
Response', Chaillot Paper 84 (Institute for Security Studies, Paris, 2005), 53 pp.
19	Ian S. Lustick, 'The Absence of Middle Eastern Great Powers: Political "Backwardness" in
Historical Perspective', International Organization, 51(4), 1997, pp. 653–83; Barry Buzan
and Ana Gonzalez-Pelaez (eds), International Society and the Middle East (Basingstoke: Pal-
grave, 2009).
20	Richard K. Betts, 'Wealth, Power and Instability: East Asia and the United States after the Cold
War', International Security, 18(3), 1993–4, pp. 34–77; Thomas J. Christensen, 'Posing Prob-
lems without Catching Up: China's Rise and Challenge for US Security Policy', International
Security, 25(4), 2001, pp. 5–40; Robert S. Ross, 'The Geography of Peace: East Asia in
the Twenty-First Century', International Security, 23(4), 1999, pp. 81–118; Denny Roy,
'Hegemon on the Horizon? China's Threat to East Asian Security', International Security,
19(1), 1994, pp. 149–68; David Shambaugh, 'Containment or Engagement of China? Calcu-
lating Beijing's Responses', International Security, 21(2), 1996, pp. 180–209; Adam Ward,
'China and America: Trouble Ahead?', Survival, 45(3), 2003, pp. 35–56.
21	Barry Buzan, 'China in International Society: Is "Peaceful Rise" Possible?', Chinese Journal
of International Politics, 3(1), 2010, pp. 5–36.
22	Peter Ferdinand, 'Sunset, Sunrise: China and Russia Construct a New Relationship', Interna-
tional Affairs, 83(5), 2007, pp. 841–67; Thomas Wilkins, 'Russo-Chinese Strategic Partnership:
A New Form of Security Cooperation?', Contemporary Security Policy, 29(2), 2008, pp. 358.
23	Buzan, The United States and the Great Powers, pp. 107–31; Bromley, American Power, p. 151.
24	Buzan, 'China in International Society'; Reinhard Drifte, 'US Impact on Japan–China Security
Relations', Security Dialogue, 31(4), 2000, pp. 449–62; June Teufel Dreyer, 'Sino-Japanese
Rivalry and Its Implications for Developing Nations', Asian Survey, 46(4), 2006, pp. 538–57;
Rosemary Foot, 'Chinese Strategies in a US-Hegemonic Global Order: Accommodating and
Hedging', International Affairs, 82(1), 2006, pp. 77–94; Peter Hays Gries, 'China's "New
Thinking" on Japan', China Quarterly, 184, 2005, pp. 831–50; Rex Li, 'Partners or Rivals?
Chinese Perceptions of Japan's Security Strategy in the Asia-Pacific Region', Journal of Stra-
tegic Studies, 22(4), 1999, pp. 1–25; Mike M. Mochizuki, 'Japan's Shifting Strategy Toward
the Rise of China', Journal of Strategic Studies, 30(3/4), 2007, pp. 739–76; James Reilly,
'China's History Activists and the War of Resistance against Japan: History in the Making',
Asian Survey, 44(2), 2004, pp. 276–94; Denny Roy, 'The Sources and Limits of Sino-Japanese
Tensions', Survival, 47(2), 2005, pp. 191–214; Gilbert Rozman, 'China's Changing Images of
Japan 1989–2001: The Struggle to Balance Partnership and Rivalry', International Relations
of the Asia Pacific, 2(1), 2002, pp. 95–129; Masaru Tamamoto, 'How Japan Imagines China
and Sees Itself', World Policy Journal, 22(4), 2005, pp. 55–62; Michael Yahuda, 'The Limits
of Economic Interdependence: Sino-Japanese Relations', unpublished paper, 2002.
25	Joshua Cooper Ramo, The Beijing Consensus (London: Foreign Policy Centre, 2004).
26	Bromley, American Power, p. 82.
27	Watson, The Evolution, pp. 299–309, 319–25; Adam Watson, The Limits of Independence:
Relations between States in the Modern World (London: Routledge, 1997); Gong, The Stan-
dard of 'Civilization' , pp. 7–21; Ian Clark, The Hierarchy of States: Reform and Resistance
in the International Order (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989); Andrew Hur-
rell, On Global Order: Power, Values and the Constitution of International Society (Oxford:
Oxford University Press, 2007) esp. pp. 13, 35–6, 63–5, 71, 111–14. Dunne, 'Society and
Hierarchy', even questions whether after 11 September US policy amounted to suzerainty,
moving it outside of international society.
28	Ian Clark, Legitimacy in International Society (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), p. 254.
29	Clark, Legitimacy in International Society, pp. 227–43.
30	Daalder and Lindsay, America Unbound, p. 195; Watson, The Evolution of International
­Society, p. 14.
31	Lake, Hierarchy, pp. ix–x, 8; Peter Burroughs, 'Imperial Institutions and the Government of
Empire', in Andrew Porter (ed.), The Oxford History of the British Empire, Vol. 3 (Oxford:
Oxford University Press, 1999), p. 179.
32.	David P. Calleo, 'The Tyranny of False Vision: America's Unipolar Fantasy', Survival, 50(5),
2008, p.62.
33	Feng Zhang, 'Does China Have an International Strategy?', unpublished paper, 2009, p. 4.
34	See also Zhu Wenli, 'International Political Economy', pp. 47–9.
35	Zhang, 'Does China Have an International Strategy?', p. 4; Shogo Suzuki, 'Chinese Soft Power,
Insecurity Studies, Myopia and Fantasy', Third World Quarterly, 30(4), 2009, pp. 779–93.
36	Hu Jintao, 'Build towards a Harmonious World of Lasting Peace and Common Prosperity',
speech to the High-level Plenary Meeting of the UN's 60th Session, 15 September 2005, pp.
1–5. Available at: http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt/zyjh/t213091.htm (accessed 19 January
2009). Yan Xuetong, 'Xun Zi's Thoughts on International Politics and Their Implications',
Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2(1), 2008, p. 38.
37	Yongjin Zhang, China in International Society since 1949 (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1998),
A New Form of Security Cooperation?', Contemporary Security Policy, 29(2), 2008, p. 358.
39	Buzan, 'China in International Society', pp. 29–33.
40	Ramo, The Beijing Consensus, p. 28.
41	Kupchan, The End of the American Era, pp. 119–59; Prestowitz, Rogue Nation, pp. 230–44.
42	Ian Manners, 'The European Union as a Normative Power: A Response to Thomas Diez',
Millennium, 35(1), 2006, pp. 167–80.
43	Charles A. Kupchan, 'After Pax Americana'; Barry Buzan, 'Culture and International Society',
International Affairs, 86(1), 2010, pp. 22–3.
44	Kupchan, 'After Pax Americana', pp. 40–79; Eric Helleiner, 'Regionalization in the Interna-
tional Political Economy: A Comparative Perspective', Eastern Asian Policy Papers, No 3
(Centre for Asia Pacific Studies, 1994).
45	Ikenberry, 'Liberal Internationalism', p. 83.
46	Kenneth N. Waltz, 'The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better', Adelphi 171
(London: IISS, 1981).
47	Thanks to Jorge Lasmar for this term.
48	James M. Goldgeier and Michael McFaul, 'A Tale of Two Worlds: Core and Periphery in the
Post-Cold War Era', International Organization, 46(2), pp. 467–91; Max Singer and Aaron
Wildavsky, The Real World Order: Zones of Peace/Zones of Turmoil (Chatham, NJ: Chatham
House Publishers, 1993).
Barry Buzan is Montague Burton Professor in the Department of International Relations, LSE and
a Fellow of the British Academy. Among his books are, with Richard Little and Charles Jones, The
Logic of Anarchy (1993); with Richard Little, International Systems in World History (2000); with
Ole Wæver, Regions and Powers (2003); The United States and the Great Powers (2004); From
International to World Society? (2004); and with Ana Gonzalez-Pelaez (eds), International Society
and the Middle East (2009).
Supermächte
Große Kraft
Die Vereinigten Staaten
Dokumente ähnlich wie 148502411-Buzan-2011-a-World-Without-Superpowers-1.pdf
His Quiz 3 answers.docx
Edwin Climaco
BUZAN-2011-IR-TheInauguralKennethWaltzSuperpower.pdf
Igor Castellano
Global Superpowers
renjithkollampuzha
conversation paper
Globalization With Chinese Characteristics
Leei Wong
2018_03-CKGSB
Jason del Ponte
Economic_Interdependence_between_U.S.-Ch.pptx
justinescu80
Historical Cycles; Are We Doomed to Repeat the Past
Shoniqua Johnson
Foreign Affairs May & June 2019.pdf
Tanveer Ahmed Khattak
collapse2-2-1
Trinity Soyoung Joo
China Petroleum Dealers Association Established
solids_control
- The End of Cheap Coal
punkscience
KSS India 2
Siva Kalyan
world english article.docx
Shirin Afroz
Andreea-Cristina Mocanu
Chemicals 2.0 Consolidated VF
Subbarayudu Patturu
Be Glad for Our Failure to Catch Up With China in Education
OE-cities-summary.pdf
santhoshkumarpl
moravcsik 2009
tri_nana
Choreographing "ChinAfrica" through Transnational Encounter
castillorocas
Intensive and Extensive Growth in Imperial China
Tee El
Thayer China and the US a New Cold War
Carlyle Alan Thayer
Updated Resume
Jesse Buell
Sunny Bhatia
THTF Presentation
Amin S - Confronting the Empire.pdf
João Alfredo Santos Ferreira
China Reviewer
Lui Mar Sarmiento
flyte21
Beliebt in Religion And Belief
Mistaking Community Life for Public Life-Brill
Ilir Gjinolli
(s5.h) American Bible Society vs City of Manila
mj lopez
2015 -26 Dec - Vespers-synaxis Theotokos
Marguerite Paizis
A note on the Caraka Samhita and Buddhism
Jigdrel77
Prayer Triplet Guide
Avram Nitu
cydney van dyke resume
Mystical Works of Meister Eckhart
Don Jumsai
The Lord's Supper Sacrifice
NorthMonroe
Wafat - Mutawaffani - tawaffuni
Md. Naim Khan
channel mediums
Butare Pastors' Conference 2012 Report
World Shine Foundation
Maximón: the Shape Shifting Trickster Provides Hope
Eduardo Valenzuela
Mrunal [Culture] Indian Art Architecture and Painting Schools (Mindmap cum note) - Mrunal.pdf
Neelima Verma
Michael Sumali
Francisco de Vitoria, Carl Schmitt, And Originary Technicity
luther blisset
Multi-Cultural: Jawa
Che'gu Jamal
Ellen G. White and the Chicago Buildings Vision Fiasco
sirjsslut
Sharia Final Report1
Kath Kath
Excerpts from "The Divine Code" by Rabbi Moshe Weiner (1)
Christophe Mazières
Srikalahasti Temple
Komalah Purusothman
SCOTUS Question in Re: Christopher Hallett v. the Florida Department of Revenue
Nacho Man
St. Luke's March
scituatemariner
Satyanarayan - Preparation
steam100deg8229
Britannia Ourense
AN INTRODUCTION TO THE HOLY KORAN
TheIslamPapers
Moses - A Model for Today's Leaders
Dario Tokić
Araby Outline
Elmehdi Mayou
The Holy Rosary in Latin English and Spanish
Jerald Franklin Archer
Family Fatawa (Islamic Verdicts for the Muslim Family) - Various Scholars
Mountainofknowledge