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Missing plane MH370 'just out of search area,' says expert
EXCLUSIVE, Geoffrey ThomasThe West Australian
Tuesday, 21 August 2018 2:01AM
Camera IconOcean Infinity's Seabed Constructor searched for the wreckage of the missing plane.Picture: AP
One of the leading experts on the fate of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 says that new analysis of data from Australia's crash investigator suggests a location for the missing plane just outside the area that has been searched.
The 10 possible final flight paths of MH370 have been examined by independent group member Victor Iannello, after he was given exclusive access to simulation data produced by Boeing for the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.
After analysing all the simulation data Mr Iannello recommends "the next search should occur along the seventh arc north of 25 degrees south at a width of about plus or minus 25 nautical miles (46km)".
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS REVEALED
The search until now has been 22 nautical miles either side of the seventh arc.
The arc is a curved line about 1800km off the WA coast and is based on the Inmarsat satellite returns from MH370.
Recently one of the world's most respected oceanographers, University of WA professor Charitha Pattiaratchi, said that MH370 is lying just outside the area that has been searched.
"Yes absolutely, just outside where we have been looking," he said.
But Professor Pattiaratchi said the university drift modelling indicates that the priority region to target would be the area between 33 degrees and 28 degrees along the seventh arc.
Ocean Infinity, which conducted the most recent search with a ship called Seabed Constructor, had indicated that it may carry out a new search once a summer pattern returns.
In his blog Mr Iannello said that "with the failure of the recent search by Ocean Infinity to locate the debris field along the seventh arc at latitudes as far north as 25 degrees south and at widths equal to or exceeding plus or minus 22 nautical miles, we have to consider whether it is possible that with the assumption of uncontrolled flight, the plane could have impacted the ocean farther out".
He asked the safety bureau for more details about the conditions modelled and the results of the 10 simulations that were used as the basis for the search.
"Although legal restrictions prevent the ATSB from providing specific details about each of the 10 simulations (referred to as Cases 1-10), the ATSB did reveal that the initial speeds varied between M0.75 (894km/hr) and M0.83, the starting altitudes were either FL350 (35,000ft) or FL400, the initial headings were either 178°, 184° or 190°, and turbulence was either light or moderate. Winds at various altitudes were included in the simulations."
He blames the shortcomings over MH370's disappearance.
VideoHe blames the shortcomings over MH370's disappearance.
The ATSB also provided Mr Iannello with a variety of other data and has permitted him to share the results so that a broader group of investigators can independently analyse the results.
"To my knowledge, this is the first time these results have been released to the public," Mr Iannello said.
"Although not included in the files, derived quantities such as ground speed, Mach number, track, vertical speed, vertical acceleration, bank angle, and wing loading are all calculable, although some parameters such as Mach number and calibrated airspeed need assumptions about the wind and temperature fields."
The 10 simulation case studies down by Boeing for the ATSB
Mr Iannello found that "in none of the simulations did the plane fly straight with level wings after the autopilot was disengaged. Ultimately, the magnitude and direction of the bank that develops is the net effect of many factors, including thrust asymmetry, TAC, manual rudder input, weight imbalance, aerodynamic asymmetry, and turbulence, with the dihedral effect of the wings and center-of-mass tending to restore the bank to zero."
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