Who Will Go North: Lessons from Blocking the Suez Canal
Seven days that shook the world
The container ship incident on the Suez Canal changed a lot. Some believe that what happened was an accident, others believe that this is a technique used by a rival in a big political game. Lessons to be learned from this stories.
But, whatever one may say, Suez fell out of the comfort zone. Business will be forced to look for an alternative to it. And the Northern Sea Route has good potential, albeit not so unambiguous.
Everyone finally exhaled. Main Sea Gate - The Suez Canal is unlocked. The container ship Ever Given, on which numerous curses fell, and in Russia - rather, anecdotes, after seven days of inactivity, was removed from the shallows.
Photo: fallenhearts17 / instagram.com
The huge colossus, designed to carry over 20 shipping containers (Twentyfoot Equivalent Unit, TEU), went further north. Mohab Mamish, adviser to the Egyptian President for the development of seaports and the Suez Canal, has already announced that navigation has begun along the canal.
According to calculations, it will take several more days for the movement along the key water section to return to normal. The unexpected closure of the canal gave rise to big problems for some, unexpected bonuses for others, and at the same time renewed the discussion about alternative routes.
First, about the problems.
The "traffic jam" in Suez stopped about 450 ships. According to Bloomberg, the total damage from blocking the channel is $ 9,6 billion per day. The world trading system was somewhat feverish from a "blood clot".
Indeed, for example, more than 2019 thousand ships passed through the Suez Canal in 19, 1,25 billion tons of cargo were passed. And this, whatever one may say, is about 13% of the volume of international trade and 10% of oil transportation.
Now about the bonuses.
The carriers, of course, were worried. Contracts are "burning" from such stops, especially when perishable goods are being transported. But here it must be borne in mind that all goods are insured, and therefore it is time for insurance companies to twitch.
But the maritime companies, apparently, are even happy. Due to the state of emergency on the Suez Canal, the cost of sea transportation has increased significantly. According to Bloomberg, the delivery of one 40-foot container from China to Europe will now have to spend about $ 8 thousand, and a year ago it was 4 times cheaper.
Oilmen also turned out to be in positive territory. The negative trend of the fall in world prices for black gold not only stopped, but was replaced by an increase - by 7%. Although after News oil quotes began to fall again after Ever Given was floated.
Alas, negative expectations from the third wave of coronavirus in Europe turned out to be stronger. And here a lot depends on the decisions of the participants in the OPEC + agreement. If exporters decide to maintain production restrictions in May, then a sharp drop in oil prices will definitely be avoided.
What alternatives to the route through the Suez Canal are we talking about?
Of course, the old classical route that goes around Africa from the south came to life at once. However, it is 9,6 thousand kilometers and 10 days longer. All this translates into significant additional costs.
Carriers, predicting that the situation with Ever Given would drag on, began to deploy ships on the approach to the Suez and send them around Cape Hope. But businessmen count money.
The behavior of the leader of sea transportation - Maersk company is significant. As reported on the official website, she had 34 vessels on hold, 15 were rerouted around Africa. So, as soon as the "traffic jam" on the Suez Canal collapsed, Maersk immediately decided to return several ships from the "African" campaign. Time is money, as they say.
In Russia, and not only in Russia, the Northern Sea Route has returned to the information field. It is known to be noticeably shorter than the route from Asia to Europe through the warm seas. For several years now, the Russian authorities have been focusing on the development of the Northern Sea Route. There is a gradual arrangement of ports on the route, related infrastructure, the icebreaker fleet is increasing, etc.
But a significant number of experts are still skeptical about the prospects of the NSR. First, they say, the incident with Ever Given did not come right on time. That is, not just in time. Now, if it happened in August or September, when the ice situation on the Northern Sea Route is favorable, then the carriers would certainly turn their eyes to the north.
In the meantime, unfortunately, only Suez.
Secondly, modern business is used to receiving quality service. And the infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, to be honest, is not yet ready to receive a large number of ships, and even large tonnage. There are simply no fully equipped ports along the route.
Russia has only Murmansk. But where is he? At the very exit to Europe, and you still have to get to it. In addition, we repeat, carriers are insured without exception. And insurance companies assess the risks. So, they unambiguously classify SMEs as a high-risk zone, and hence the corresponding insurance payments.
Thirdly, on the main route from Southeast Asia to Europe, cargo does not go without stopping from point A to final B. Up to half of the cargo, as the analysis says, remains in ports along the route. It is profitable, but this option is certainly not provided for the NSR.
Fourth, let's not forget that China is actively developing a land-based alternative - the One Belt - One Road project. The incident in the Suez Canal will definitely spur the PRC to invest even more actively in the development of this super-project.
Arctic will show
And yet the future belongs to the Northern Sea Route. Time works, surprisingly, for him. First of all, one should not discount the conspiracy theory that the closure of the Suez Canal is the work of the United States.
The incident, surprisingly, happened just then, when China sharply intensified in the Middle East and Europe. Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe is paying a visit to Europe from March 24 to March 31. And the foreign minister of the country went on a Middle East tour: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, UAE, Bahrain and Oman.
And the initiatives do not sound weak: direct negotiations between Palestine and Israel, a conference on security in the Persian Gulf. And all under the auspices of China. The United States went into hysterics from such Chinese arrogance.
Therefore, the negotiations between the United States and China in Anchorage (Alaska) were predetermined: there will be no peace between the two giants. And the unexpected maneuver of Ever Given somehow fits very organically into the overall political mosaic.
And where, tell me, the Northern Sea Route?
Very much to do with it. Business thinks about money and time. The Suez Canal has ceased to be comfortable for the world economy. Now no one will give a grudge that a new blocking of the main line will not happen in the future.
Even for purely technical parameters. Now ships with a large tonnage rule the ball on the seas. The shipping market has been divided up by several global companies, and their favorites are ships like Ever Given with 20 containers. Another breath of wind and please.
China, realizing that the United States will not give up the Middle East field so easily, will be forced to look for an alternative. The Northern Sea Route is just a suitable option. He is controlled by a trusted partner, and even more - an ally.
Russia is forced to converge more and more with the PRC, given the overwhelming pressure from the United States. But let's not forget about Europe, which makes convulsive attempts to abandon the role of a puppet in the hands of Uncle Sam. The NSR is an unambiguous trade alternative for the European Union, albeit not in the very near future.
Russia has already clearly declared its sovereignty over the sea waters adjacent to the country's Arctic coast. So far, the Northern Sea Route is basically a route for the transportation of liquefied natural gas produced in Russia's northern fields.
But the same Maersk has already flown its container ship along the NSR, there is no doubt that others will follow. And the infrastructure of the track will be improved, the technologies allow it. And Chinese investments will help. They will come. And here it only remains for Russia to act wisely - to develop the Northern Sea Route, but also not to miss the initiative.
But that's another story...
Sergey Osipov
i.ytimg.com, infotables.ru, trans.ru, sudostroenie.info, swissinfo.ch, atomic-energy.ru
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Terenin April 2 2021 10: 17
But let's not forget about Europe, which makes convulsive attempts to abandon the role of a puppet in the hands of Uncle Sam.
Can you have at least one example? Not convulsions, of course, but "attempts to abandon the role of a puppet in the hands of Uncle Sam"
Nyrobsky April 2 2021 10: 53
Quote: Terenin
Is that only the desire to finish building the SP-2, and then, this is more a merit of Germany than of Europe. Otherwise, the project would have been frozen for a long time to please Uncle Sam. Any other examples of the "puppet uprising" somehow do not appear.
tihonmarine April 2 2021 11: 26
Quote: Nyrobsky
Is that only the desire to finish building the SP-2, and then, this is more a merit of Germany than of Europe. Otherwise, the project would have been frozen for a long time to please Uncle Sam.
While navigation in the NSR is limited to Russian vessels, the United States and their "greyhounds" are silent. But when China reaches an agreement with Russia on the passage of ships flying the Chinese flag through the NSR, and they begin to pass through reality, then European companies will also begin to show interest in passing through the North. That's when Uncle Sam's "heavy artillery", the State Department with its antediluvian ladies like Psaki, Nuland, all the "truthful media" with their comrades, will enter the battle. The same "dog wedding" will begin, as with the construction of "Stream-2", but only in a more sophisticated and cruel form. So you need to prepare for this in advance, and not as for "Stream-2" in order to come out with the least possible losses.
Olgovich April 2 2021 11: 43
While navigation in the NSR area is limited
nevertheless, over 10 years, the volume of cargo transportation along the NSR has grown by 10 times- up to 30 mlg tons.
In Russia adopted Law on the Northern Sea Route, according to which the administration of the track works, the fleet is built and the ports are equipped: Russia looks to the future and prepares for it.
Quote: Olgovich
In Russia, the Law on the NSR was adopted, according to which the administration of the track works, the fleet is built and the ports are equipped.
Perhaps it will be done once, but you need to do it now and immediately. In the same way as the port of Ust Luga was built.
Hagen April 2 2021 12: 56
but you need to do it now and immediately
The big port is practically a city. It's even more difficult beyond the Arctic Circle. Of course, I would also like everything to be done at once. But this does not happen in life. Therefore, we need continuity in political decisions and their implementation. That is why I would not strive to change the President at any cost, as many here suggest. In addition, the NSR itself in some places needs to seriously deepen the fairway. In the area of ​​the New Siberian Islands, for example, there are places with a depth of 11-13 meters, it should be more than 18-20 meters. And there is a lot more that needs to be done there that is a priori available in more southern places (communications, security systems, technical support, etc.). There are many things to do. Everything will not work out right away.
Perhaps it will be done sometime, but you need to do it now and immediately.
It is ALREADY being done: federal Law about the Northern Sea Route works since 2012: the administration of the Northern Sea Route has been created, an icebreaker fleet, a floating nuclear power plant, infrastructure, traffic volumes have already far exceeded those in the USSR.
And the scope of work there is much larger than in Ust-lug. And there, by the way, work is still going on.
By the way, the SMP was used in the Russian Empire, when construction of the Transsib for delivery of materials
Kostyar April 3 2021 20: 18
Thanks to the author for the work, an interesting article!
Is Russia looking to the future? It is commendable.
However, there is a caveat.
Russia can look anywhere, having full and legal right to do so.
But what does this have to do with potential foreign customer companies and carriers, who, according to some media reports, have already lined up for the passage of the NSR?
Our patriots should understand that there is nothing to do with the fleet of ships owned by these companies on the NSR. They need a completely different class of ships, close to ice. Otherwise - goodbye to any insurance, and no one will give permission for such, if I may say so, navigation.
Now the question is - why do foreign companies need all this? Completely remodel and rebuild your fleet, replacing one class of ships with another? Spending crazy money? What for? Or will Russia compensate them for these costs?
The giant carriers "play" for a long time, and they know how to count on a calculator just as well as you and me!
Spring will show who miscalculated where ...., we'll see!
You write about the possible prospects of confrontation, and I answered my colleague a completely different question, specifically, "What examples are there that Euromarionettes resist Uncle Sam?", To which I actually answered.
the tale takes a long time to tell, but the work is not done right away
just a question / answer ... to whom which route is beneficial, he chooses this.
just a question / answer ... who chooses which route is beneficial.
Until recently, it was so. Now, when mattresses do not hesitate to impudently put pressure on the economic interests of competing countries, through provocations and outright blocking of economic projects, the need has emerged to have several options for delivery routes. China is 80% dependent on sea freight and will certainly fit into a joint program with Russia to create the infrastructure of the NSR, as well as to modernize railways to increase their throughput. Recently, a Chinese delegation visited Komi to introduce the topic of participation in the Belkomur railway project, which will run from the Perm Territory, through Komi to the Arkhangelsk port and from Ukhta in Komi to Naryan Mar in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.
It is clear that minke whales stick their nose everywhere ...
Guess, do not guess, big uncles will decide everything in their own interests.
And so, from political preferences, obligations and other things, no one manages to dodge ...
In principle, it is true, the old world order is crumbling before our eyes and new centers of power of world economic and military influence are looming in its place, the contours of which are becoming more and more noticeable. No one will be able to stay away from these processes.
I had to choose it before, but the situation is changing, the reshuffling will start active.
unaha April 2 2021 12: 22
"Belkomur" which will run from the Perm Territory, through Komi to the Arkhangelsk port and from the city of Ukhta in Komi to Naryan Mar in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug "- this is which is being built since 1995 and built during this time ... not at all?
Quote: unaha
It had not been built since 1995, but had an intention to build it, straightened out the route, solved the issues of attracting investors, issued shares for this business, etc. Only last year, the government included this project in the financing program, and in fact gave the go-ahead for its implementation. Hence the manifestation of interest on the part of China. Considering the fact that the issue of the Northern Sea Route and the development of the associated infrastructure is becoming relevant, it can be assumed that Belkomur will be implemented since is part of this strategy.
prior April 2 2021 10: 23
Russia should not rush with its proposal for the NSR.
There is no infrastructure, icebreakers for normal traffic - the cat cried, ice-class ships too, there are not so many goods for transportation along the NSR.
Northern "Plato" is certainly very tasty, but the cart is ahead of the horse ?!
First, it would be nice to create, and then offer ...
Woodman April 2 2021 10: 36
Quote: prior
Russia should not rush with its proposal on the NSR. There is no infrastructure, icebreakers for normal traffic - the cat cried, ice-class ships too, there are not so many goods for transportation along the NSR.
I disagree. The creation of infrastructure is not cheap, and even more so in the conditions of the North. Therefore, the sooner the project starts making a profit, the better. This profit will partly be invested in the creation of new infrastructure. The fact that at the moment there is little cargo makes it possible in a calm atmosphere, but at the same time in practice, to work out the route and, as a result, make changes to the planned infrastructure. And at the same time it serves as an example for other potential users and an indicator of the reliability and feasibility (or vice versa) of using the NSR. It will be much worse if you first create a full-fledged infrastructure in northern conditions, and then find out that it was either created with such errors that it cannot be used, or that it is not needed at all. The project is large-scale and new, completely new, as an example, there is nothing to rely on, so anything is possible. Including unsuccessful planning. And it is far from the fact that someone's malicious intent or someone's incompetence will be guilty of such planning.
Therefore, it is necessary to offer the NSR now. To gain experience that can and should be used in the further development of the NSR.
As a matter of fact, we do not contradict each other.
Der Appetit kommt beim Essen
Of course, you can't go straight to the "quarry", but you need to start right away, at least a little, so that the "sea people" understand the very essence of this Northern Route. They will begin to gain experience, and money will be spent on the arrangement of the NSR, and to show investors that this venture has benefits. It is impossible to hesitate, for "a holy place is never empty" and others will come.
The best advertising will be the success of our own transportation along the NSR - timber, ore, coal, oil, gas, frozen fish ... and there the eastern communist comrades will catch up ...
The best advertisement will be the success of our own transportation along the NSR - timber, ore, coal, oil, gas, frozen fish ..
All of the above was transported in the USSR ...
It is necessary to create an organization that would be responsible for everything. And I would have known that she was responsible for the Arctic and for nothing else. And we will ask her - and strictly! Then you will be fine. Let's do it differently. Redo the papers, and we will write a decree: create the Main Directorate of the Northern Sea Route under the Council of People's Commissars, instruct it to pave the way from the White Sea to the Bering Strait, equip it, maintain it in good condition and ensure the safety of navigation. Enough for now".
I.V. Stalin
And it went on, and went on until 1991.
Alas, work is out of trend now. Now they want an investor to come, do everything, organize, pay. Well, our officials will only have to issue licenses and charge fees for the northern Platon. Moreover, the head office is somewhere in warm regions.
And here is Sever, are you kidding ?! To Siberia, to the Kolyma, to the North? and even of their own free will ?!
Now they want an investor to come, do everything, organize, pay. Well, our officials will only have to issue licenses and charge fees for the northern Platon.
Speak right. That is why nothing comes of it, but Comrade Stalin did it ... and we ask her - and strictly! Then you will be fine.
But now this cannot be in reality.
bandabas April 2 2021 10: 29
There is only one question. What did ordinary citizens of Russia get from this? The answer is nothing good. Another expectation of an increase in prices for all-YES. As a bonus, another "jam for tomorrow".
mark1 April 2 2021 10: 46
Quote: bandabas
What did ordinary citizens of Russia get from this?
Exactly...
-And shut this SMP fuck! ... For no fucking thing!
- Right?
In the USSR, the North was actively developed. And, living here is not sugar. Even the polar night-polar day has a strong effect on the body. I'm not talking about the climate. Rotational shifts here do not completely pass (you just need to live, not "earn"), and strong points on the NSR turned into nothing during the time of the liberos. It's easier to destroy than even to re-create.
It's easier to destroy than even to re-create.
In general, I agree, but in this particular case, the remark is not good. The volume of traffic along the NSR in 1986 was 6,455 million tons. in 2020 - almost 33 million tons.
Regards mark1. The question is not only in the north, but also in the Trans-Urals, Siberia and the Far East.
The question is almost unsolvable. In the USSR, the population is 280 million in the Russian Federation, 146 million, of which 20 million (together with illegal immigrants) are in Moscow to mother and, judging by the new territory seized, she is ready to absorb at least as much more. So either the mass expulsion of the population from the megalopolises and the creation of decent conditions in the areas you listed (which is unlikely) or watch
and strong points on the NSR turned into nothing during the time of the liberos. It's easier to destroy than even to re-create.
The entire system, along with the infrastructure, has been destroyed, the old cadres are retired, and no one bothered to learn the new ones. Sailors, faculties of institutes of the Northern Sea Route are closed.
You need to start creating everything completely, although not from scratch, but in a new way, and with new realities.
kig April 2 2021 10: 33
Not everyone knows, but a lot of ships avoid the canal and choose the route around Africa. This is especially true for bulk carriers - that is, ships for bulk cargo. It's just that the economy comes into play - such a route often gives more profit to the shipowner, even in spite of the additionally burned fuel.
And in general, in history there has already been an example of the closure of a channel for a very long time. So what? And nothing, nobody died. On the contrary, the closure of the canal gave rise to a new class of ships - the supertanker.
RoTTor April 3 2021 23: 11
... with the 7-year closure, there was a powerful development of shipbuilding and all related industries.
The Kerch plant "Zaliv" then built large tankers and nuclear-powered ships of the "Sevmorput" type.
Soon the shipyards of Nikolaev will return, although the invaders almost destroyed them.
Quote: RoTTor
Our so-called supertankers, and even more so the Northern Sea Route, were built after the opening of the channel.
RMT April 2 2021 10: 34
they would rather dig another canal in parallel with the Suez than to go to the Arctic.
They have already partially dug it up. Duplicated about half.
Professor April 2 2021 10: 37
The author's theory breaks down on a simple fact. The Suez Canal during the Arab-Israeli wars was blocked from 1967 to 1975. Not 8 days, but 8 years. How did this redirect freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route? No way.
Quote: Professor
was blocked from 1967 to 1975. Not 8 days, but 8 years. How did this redirect freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route? No way.
And how long did navigation along the NSR last in those years? But did the Union try to use the NSR in those years for the passage of transit cargo? And did the Union in those years have the opportunity to ensure the pilotage of transit ships? Taking into account the fact that year-round navigation along the NSR was opened only in 1978, and the NSR was opened for international shipping only in 1991.
Avior April 2 2021 11: 15
But did the Union try to use the NSR in those years for the passage of transit cargo?
It's just that the Union looked more soberly and balancedly at the real possibilities of the NSR for transit cargo transportation.
kytx April 2 2021 11: 12
in those years, navigation along the NSR was shorter and more difficult than now, and the total flow of goods is less.
but of course the author has spoken too much somewhere
alstr April 2 2021 11: 36
Then there were slightly different conditions. Firstly, there were not so many cargoes from Asia, i.e. the turnover was less.
Secondly, the main flow of goods was across the Atlantic from the USA to Europe or, in the worst case, America to Japan.
Third, Political reasons. This is not a desire to let the USSR into the NSR and not a desire to use the NSR itself in the West.
Fourthly, then the weather was different and there were significantly fewer icebreakers, or rather exactly 1-Lenin. The second was commissioned only in 1975.
Hence, this break was transferred more calmly, but again, due to the growing need for this route, the USA and the USSR put pressure on Egypt to launch the channel. And again, the canal was cleared by both the USA and the USSR.
Quote: alstr
I would not say that this is critical. Then the Americans carried oil from the Persian Gulf, today they consume their own, and a single container does not care how many of its counterparts exist. The Suez Canal is coping and Egypt is building a parallel canal.
No. Japan-Europe already existed then as Hong Kong-Europe. China has increased cargo traffic.
Today, relations between the RF and the "spiritless world" are no better than during the Soviet era.
In 2011, the SMP passed ATTENTION !!! 34 (thirty four) ships. There is little global warming. Let's wait for the subtropics in Norilsk.
We did not survive the blockage of the Suez Canal at all. Oil prices have changed the lives of billions of people around the planet, and the opening of the canal completely destroyed the economy of the USSR. The USSR was the last on the list of those interested in ego discovery.
The channel was unblocked with the consent of Israel, which controls its eastern bank, and under pressure from the United States, of course.
As soon as oil production increases from 2 to 4 times (it depends on what base to take). Actually, the increase in production (i.e. cargo turnover) was the reason for the unblocking of the channel in 1975.
The flow at that time was scanty. For comparison. In 1970, exports amounted to 22 billion dollars, and in 2019, 889 billion (in comparable prices). The same is with other countries.
At the same time, in 1970 there was almost no export from China, because. the main production facilities were established only in the late 80s and early 90s.
In general, the growth of Asian economies began only in the 80s. accordingly, the turnover of goods also increased at the same time.
Regarding the NSR: the attitude towards Russia (USSR) has not changed. What has changed is that We are ready to admit foreigners there. And the icebreaker fleet has become larger in comparison with 1975.
And the fact that fewer ships are being conducted is not the fact that this number cannot be increased, but that there is nothing to carry. And this is not a question of the weather. In terms of weather and technical capabilities, this is an increase in SPM navigation from 2 months in the 70s to 4 now. This is without icebreakers.
There are more icebreakers - almost all year round, but you also need ships of a certain class.
What do I mean by all this. In the late 60s and early 70s, the importance of the Suez Canal was not as critical as it is now.
And SPM can become an alternative for a certain segment of transportation, because blocking the NSR is more difficult than the Suez Canal. but the Suez Canal will not completely replace the NSR.
In 2011, 34 vessels passed the NSR. Sueetsky Canal tens of thousands of ships. Moreover, not expensive ice-class ships and ships from which they are not required to expect escort.
The closure of the Suez Canal at one time led to the creation of supertankers or other vessels of gigantic displacement. This is practically the norm today. The same stuck container ship is 400 meters long. More than an aircraft carrier.
In general, all this is talk about the poor. Everything is much simpler. It will be cheaper and safer to bring a container from Shanghai to Rotterdam via the NSR - they will be transported via the NSR. This will not happen in the foreseeable future. There are too many risks and the return on investment in this project is too vague.
DED_peer_DED April 3 2021 22: 43
and there were significantly fewer icebreakers, or rather exactly 1-Lenin. The second was commissioned only in 1975.
No. For example:
The icebreaker "Krasin".
1917, March 31 - the flag of the auxiliary ships of the Russian Imperial Fleet was raised on the "Svyatogor" (the birthday of the icebreaker)
1960-1972 - navigates ships along the Northern Sea Route.
There were two atomic icebreakers.
The Suez Canal during the Arab-Israeli wars was blocked from 1967 to 1975. Not 8 days, but 8 years. How did this redirect freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route? No way.
"Professor" You still lived in the Soviet Union, but somehow quickly everything flew out of your head. I will not write much, but the question "Who would allowed for all this foreign public to pass along the NSR ??? "
And who would have allowed all this foreign public to pass along the NSR ??? "
For dollars? Everything. Brezhnev was the first to talk about "the great victory of the Soviet people in the struggle for world peace and the development of the world economy."
Artashes April 2 2021 10: 47
Well, why is there such confidence that the NSR will almost replace Suez? And with the help of the PRC? The thesis entrusted "from above" ??? At least sometimes we look at the map, or is it the same "shapkozakidatstvo"? And again the "city of Kitezh" about Europe's desire to "free itself" from the US ...
It was from the Russian Federation that almost all the countries of the ex-USSR were QUICKLY "freed" - with the help of the West, China, Turkey and the PRIMITIVITY of Russian policy!
The PRC is forcing a flow channel in Myanmar (which was considered by the Military Review) and intends to invest in Suez's backup in Bl. East NOT for "Northern Sea Route" at all - are we "hushed up" again?
To start creating the Caspian-Persian Gulf canal would be a MUST move. On this issue, Iran is looking at the Russian Federation, but the Russian Federation does not want more aggravation with the West (including because the channel's project is under US sanctions). It is such a move that would create real competition for the Suez and not only.
But - he sees an eye, but a tooth itch ...
Quote: Artashes
Well, why is there such confidence that the NSR will almost replace Suez?
It will not replace, but create an alternative.
The NSR is necessary for Russia itself, and not only as a transit corridor.
Despite everything, transit along the NSR is slowly growing, which means that this route is still in demand.
Where does confidence come from?
Yes, everything from there - from the category of wishes, desires, Manilov dreams and sweet dreams.
But even if you drink to the fact that our desires always coincide with our capabilities, it is unlikely to help the cause.
It will never replace. Can unload, partially.
You just need to understand those who write what a fleet is, what ships it consists of, and what it transports. Well, the freight rates for each cargo.
Daniil Konovalenko April 2 2021 10: 50
And the infrastructure of the track will be improved, the technologies allow it. And Chinese investments will help.
... Uh-huh, this is not the Far North, but the Far South, it's warm there, there are apples ... yes, technology allows ..
A. Privalov April 2 2021 10: 53
Of course, the development of the NSR is necessary. The number of cargoes in world terms is growing, but before 2035 the development program does not promise anything.
Let's be realistic. Maersk hosted the only tiny container ship (3600 containers, and the poor fellow got stuck - that's 5,5 of these kids) back in 2018. As you can see, they are in no hurry to go there anymore.
Such a strong wind in the Suez happens once a year. Next time, they will announce "not flying weather" for a day and this will be the end of it.
Unfortunately, today there is no real alternative to the Suez Canal, alas ...
Mouse April 2 2021 11: 00
Wait, everything will settle down ... it will be forgotten and everything will flow as before ...
Until the next emergency ...
forty-eighth April 2 2021 11: 04
I do not know why the NSR is advertised as an alternative to the route through the Suez Canal, if there was no smell of an alternative there.
The NSR as a niche route that, under certain conditions, can become convenient - yes.
So this is how it should be promoted: if you have different conditions, different logistics - welcome to high latitudes.
Tagan April 2 2021 11: 13
Do you have many examples of the "divide and distribute" scheme in action at the state level, moreover, when in a particular case there is also nothing special to share?
It should be understood that projects of such a plan are long-term, without immediate profits. This is not an analogue of the bazaar trade, where the merchant lives today and who needs to quickly sell the goods.
This is the development of the northern territories with the acquisition of new competencies and jobs, the development of infrastructure.
Kushka April 2 2021 11: 16
About "SMP rules" are written by those who have not seen it.
I propose a riddle: from Beringov to Murmansk
there are 10 ships going (for icebreakers, of course).
Question 1 - how many of them will lose a propeller blade,
how much the stock is bent, and how much will get off with cement
a box on the hole, not to mention the dented sides?
Question 2- where do you get so many captains ready
go at a distance of 50 m behind the icebreaker at 9 knots, every minute
running out to the right bridge, then to the left in a blizzard, fog and
blizzard and shying away from stamukhas from 20 to 50 tons flying out
from under the stern of the icebreaker without getting pneumonia.
Will there be old mechs with strong nerves, ready to endure
2 to 5 thousand car reversals in one trip along the NSR?
Quote: Kushka
A small illustration taken from the site of the administration of the Northern Sea Route
Turquoise color - clear water without ice. At the whim of nature called the Gulf Stream, this area ends after our Murmansk. Further, along the entire length of the NSR (and now it is April), there is ice up to 2 meters thick. Sailing without an icebreaker, even now, and even more so in winter, is impossible - this is one, and only ships specially built for such a purpose are two.
Do you want to say that at that time on the NSR, someone had more views than now?
Errr April 2 2021 11: 19
I think that the one who orders the Finns to build Arc7 ice-class container ships with a capacity of 8000 TEU will confidently walk along the NSR, the project of which has already been developed by Aker Arctic.
More details about this at https://www.politforums.net/world/1616932028.html
The experience of the "hot Finnish guys" in this matter is no longer small. True, they have not yet built such large container ships of the ice class Arc7, but at the moment we already have 5 similar vessels (of the Norilsk Nickel type) built by Aker Arctic with a capacity of 650 TEU: Norilsk Nickel, Monchegorsk, Zapolyarny , "Talnakh" and "Hope".
https://fleetphoto.ru/projects/1812
sergo1914 April 2 2021 11: 31
I understood!!! Key phrase "under the flag of Panama". Bestial grin of competition. Ugly capitalism. Panamanians have blocked the Suez. "Suez" sent a brigade. But I think the response will be tougher. The tanker will be driven up. Oil from the Suez to the devil, like d candy wrappers. They will burn several tons, they will not become impoverished. And then the arrow. With Grandfather Volodya. Watching this disgrace.
ALARI April 2 2021 11: 37
The overlap of the Suez can only push the parallel digging of another canal, but not in any way redirect the ships. How many ships passing through Suez have an ice class. Here the colossus got stuck in the channel, but how will this container ship follow the icebreaker?
Knell wardenheart April 2 2021 11: 52
I am afraid that the NSR is a gamble at the moment, although relatively useful for revitalizing the regions. Even when everything will be completed and shine, due to purely geographical features, it will be of interest at best to China and Japan. Until then, it is still infinitely far away, even if the climate does not suit the next trick with the ears.
You should not bury Suez, this is not the first incident and not the last, the experience that such a colossus was pulled out and taken out goes rather to "+" the viability of the project than to "-".
Basarev April 2 2021 11: 58
Why all this praise to China? China is not an ally or even a friend to us. The yuan yoke is no better than the dollar yoke. Russia should not lie under China; it would be more correct to look for ways to betray its neighbor in a timely manner. Concluding a situational alliance with the United States, linking the United States with China, trading on both sides and finally finishing off the winner - that would be right. And not completely surrender to China, without getting anything in return. We must move away from Soviet dogmas about the accursed imperialists, be more flexible and more effective. You need to be more unprincipled, to discard nonsense like honor, law and morality, which have no place in politics. And do not hesitate to use superpower, even if you have to play obedience to do so. I have always said: politics is the path of intrigue.
syndicalist April 2 2021 21: 06
Quote: Basarev
I have always said: politics is the path of intrigue.
Moreover, China has always adhered to this line of behavior. They absorb this line with their mother's milk; their entire five-thousand-year history is built on it. It is enough to familiarize yourself with 36 Chinese strategists, which every Chinese knows by heart, who by deceit will give 100 points to the "protocols of the Elders of Zion" or the "Dulles plan", but, unlike the latter, they are not fake.
But strangely enough, a week before the incident in Suez, a system of novational control for the NSR was presented. By the way, we are not in the last places in the systems of novigation, the fleet of His Majesty serves on the Russian software.
nikvic46 April 2 2021 16: 10
I agree, the NSR is a very important route. But I don't see a single European port. Maybe I'm wrong, but China is interested in Europe. Many countries do not use the Suez Canal. Loaded Chinese ships go through southern Africa.
Financier April 2 2021 20: 05
Russia is forced to converge more and more with the PRC
But China does not seek to converge with us ...
Quote: Financier
Don't tell me! It even strives very much. Only "convergence" he understands as a complete absorption of Russia. And in this the current Russian leadership indulges such intentions. It is unlikely that this absorption will take place by military means, although this cannot be ruled out, but most likely the tactics of "fraternal alliance" will be chosen, which the Chinese may even call "USSR" with the capital in Moscow.
And Chinese investments will help. They will come.
I remembered (not literally, but approximately): 90s. Then they said that our economy would be saved by Western investments. 2000s. We need to create an attractive investment climate so that it would be interesting and profitable for a foreign investor to invest their capital in the Russian economy. 2020th. Now only the Chinese are left ...
Lynx2000 April 3 2021 00: 31
I think that the NSR should be developed primarily for oneself. Invest money in the development of infrastructure, at least seaports as it was in Soviet times, the main supply is carried out by coastal cabotage and small aircraft. In any case, for example, in the North-East region, while the villages live, fish processing plants are being built and modernized ...
Let's see what Novatek will do. At first, their idea to build an LNG terminal on the east coast of Kamchatka in the Bechevinskaya Bay seemed absurd, as if they were planning to start construction. Time will show the profitability, how their gas carriers of the Christophe de Margerie project will sail from Yamal ...
Simple April 3 2021 11: 17
Fourth, let's not forget that China is actively developing a land-based alternative - the One Belt - One Road project.
Article: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/schluss-mit-der-blauaeugigkeit-wie-china-europas-haefen-und-containerschiffe-kapert/27054840.html
An example of who will own the ports when the NSR is activated until acceptable competition with the sea trade route through the Suez.
Zaurbek April 4 2021 08: 45
The main plus of the traditional route is that it passes along populated routes, and logisticians have a bunch of accompanying additional loads and unloadings along the way. This is not only the way from point A to point B ... as in the NSR.
seregatara1969 April 4 2021 10: 30
There are no ports, but what is a port for? If FSE goods are in transit. On the southern route, they enter the port to change cargo. And in the north this is almost unnecessary. They crawl and crawl
andrew42 April 5 2021 14: 13
The NSR will be able to "shoot" only when it can be saturated with ice-class vessels belonging to Russian companies, and even better - by Russian state-owned ship-owning companies, which can carry out transportation under the insurance guarantees of Russian insurers. Then the situation will come that there is nothing against the CIF Rotterdam rates from carriers along the NSR, as they say. Until then, you can "increase attractiveness" for decades, inviting you to invest and "ride", and get massive "we don't want". A scene of the conversation between Peter the Great (Zolotukhin) and the merchant Brovkin - "Let's trade in Sterdam" - like a manual. Without its own merchant fleet, our NSR will never work as a serious competitor to the Suez.
Vasily Antonov April 8 2021 17: 17
There is practically no necessary infrastructure on the NSR route. On her
it will take years to create, and time is money, which we already lack. In general, wait and see.