Mags's Achievements
Australian Housing Crash
Mags replied to Jimmy123's topic in Investing
Well, yep. Got it right. We bought in 2019. Place down the road from us, far less desirable position (we in circuit, no passing traffic) on a busy corner, 500m2 less than us, missing a shed compared to us, with 3 vs our 2 bathrooms... sold for 65% more than we paid.... not even 20 months later... Credit, credit, credit... BS talk of taper, which is impossible. Inflation jumping out of it's cage. 50 years of off-shoring manufacturing has lead to deflation across the entire economy, now that the supply chains are shot to smithereens, while governments pump their economies full of fresh cash, guarantees inflation is here, and probably gonna get ugly: real ugly. I stand by my call, that the USD$$$ is done by 2030. Toast. MIA. Useless. And by that I mean the fiat dollar. China wont take on global reserve status: Why would they? The reserve loses it's manufacturing, and must turn into a war machine to grease the gears of GDP and credit growth. I don't know, and can't see, what it's gonna take to get the sheeple to wake up to the scam that fiat is: Over the last 20 years we've totally destroyed the Aussie dream of home ownership. Ordinary families with debts that simply can never be paid of. And we're not talking a fringe of society, we are talking a huge chunk. It's destroyed retail, as the banks hoover up all disposable income (I still hate that people believe that term means money left over after cost of living... NOPE: it's all the money left after your boss takes tax out!!!!). But I've stopped screaming that the aussie housing bubble isn't sustainable: It's gonna take a currency collapse to finish this baby off. And that's far closer than most imagine. By 2030, it's done. We've had plenty of time to prepare: did you?
We're way past a controlled 'levelling'. Even those falls through 2017/18 or was it 18/19, I can't remember, any way they were the steepest on record: and there was no real reason for that: Idiots say it was the banking royal commision, but the falls started before that was EVEN announced... Anyways, I believe we are on the home stretch for the global fiat economic system as we recognise it. We are going to continue to see housing scream skywards. Here in Adelaide stuff is regularly selling for multiple millions.... average house price is well >$400k, in a city with a median wage of $40k... it's absolutely mental. MENTAL. And it's going to get worse. Once scomo finally gets the removal of responsible lending through, it's gonna be a debt fuelled orgy like no one alive has seen. We learn nothing of history. I honestly feel bad for those who don't have a good foothold in the RE market ie. 40%+ equity. But like I say, it's just gonna keep going up. The housing market has nothing to do with fundamentals any more. The only thing that matters is credit. credit credit credit. And the world is awash with the junk, and it gets worse every day. There's not one sustainable central bank on the face of the planet. I just refuse to get caught up in the games of keeping up with the Jones'. They're all fake, up to their necks in debt. Go speak to a corner shop, privately owned accountant. Ask them about the financial position of their clients... You will feel sick. Anyways: As Australia's most bearish housing dude, I waved my white flag probably in early 2019... Only thing that matters is credit. Fake money, that never existed, entered into a ledger, against an asset the bank now owns. Credit.. credit... imaginary, but real. By 2030, I believe all these financial games will have stopped: The central banks will be gone, the financial markets will be in chaos, and those who were wise enough to avoid the debt trap will eek through. Those who believed the last 50 years would be like the next 50, are going to be financially slaughtered.Lovely isn't it.
China the monster.
Mags replied to kahuna1's topic in Investing
All those things are important for the economy as a system, but ultimately, it's the 'finance system' and 'capitalism' itself that determines the result. China can never rival USA, the capital markets are just way too different. USA, open, transparent, favourable taxation systems etc etc. (corrupt and protected by the government) China??? She's a black box, mostly communist, with a tease of capitalism, and that's only to allow the citizens to borrow for their first investment: over priced property. Corrupt as it gets. As automation becomes the employee of choice, you'll see manufacturing continue in USA, profits protected in the USA etc etc. It costs apple ~$300 for hardware and software on an iPhone... and they charge $2,000.... there's plenty of margin to build them in USA. It's just cheaper to farm it out to China, and let them deal with the capital cost of building factories. People have way too much faith in the china story. Communism rarely ends well (neither does capitalism, but it's collapse isn't as deep as communism), people believe all this tariff and import bans in China is a show of strength...... no, it's a broke bully having a tantrum.
ALI - ARGO GLOBAL LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED
Mags replied to ShareCafe's topic in ASX
I'm sticking with my call that infrastructures a good move: I bet tesla et al. out perform me in the next few years: But I'd rather a real profit than a fake one that I can only realise by selling out before the others: I'm too old for that game.
Mags started following USD and Electric Vehicles January 20, 2021
Mags replied to nipper's topic in Investing
That's probably how they'll get the electric car brigade in the end: Charging overnight at home paying taxes... or at a fast charge servo... paying taxes. The missing revenue from fuel excise and GST is going to be needed from somewhere.....
Mags replied to eshmun's topic in Investing
Yep... So either RBA let's rates rise, or they buy more govco and private co bonds/assets to keep interest down..... Which do you think they'll choose? Only a fool could even entertain the idea of letting rates rise (yes, I was that fool for 15 years up until about 2019 when I finally found all the pieces to the puzzle.). The RBA, and the banks, will create cash like never before. The govco and it's citizens will borrow like never before, and then one day, a switch will flick and inflation will be uncontrollable, and get worse, spinning out of control until the currency crashes. And of course, the 80% will own assets, thinking they are wealthy (by assets, aussies only real own real estate don't they), and they will learn the hard way, that debt fuelled markets effect the price on the way down, much more rapidly than on the way up. When a young person, after taking out their first mortgage, says "it will take me a lifetime to pay it off", they are unaware, that they are actually speaking the truth. /shrug/Such is life, financial and empire cycles: It's happened for thousands of years: the biggest revolutions in history have occurred because of fiat currencies collapsing. This time will be no different: Just this time our iPhone, facebooking crowd will be completely caught off guard.
Ok... that is really weird.Like really weird.You'd think that would have come out just after the RC... not now?There's something going on we don't know about. Oh hang on, they're dismantling responsible lending laws... The retail credit market is going to go into frenzy: My cycle trader mate always said the 20's would be a credit fuelled frenzy... I could never see how..I do now.Even the RBA has run out of government bonds to buy: so either the govco has to start spending silly by writing even more bonds (how good is deficit spending???) or it's gonna have to hit the open market.... Either way, prices off almost every asset, regardless of fundamentals, is going to explode.I hate it, but I'm going to have to join the party.
Mags replied to henrietta's topic in Off Topic Chat
Thanks Mark: You make a very, very valid point. I didn't understand how 'herd immunity' exists at 75-80% immunisation levels: But I spoke with a customer of mine who is a trustworthy pharmacist: At 75% of the population being immunized what happens is the 25% of the community that can carry and spread the disease isn't enough for the uncontrolled spread of the virus, it essentially isn't sustainable, so yes, some people will get it, but it will eventually die out on it's own. Good theory. -BUT- As you say, how are you going to get 80% of USA citizens to take the damn thing... -AND- the big worry, how long is immunity for??? or against??? 12 months??? one or two mutations??? It appears we're now seeing the third real mutation hitting the scene... so what if the vaccine doesn't work on that??? Then we're back at 0% herd immunity... Yes, this is going to be around alot longer than most think. Just thank the lord every day we are in Australia, and our state premiers (some better than others) are smart enough to know their budgets (and political equity) could never cover the cost of a full blow out in covid. My wife in medicine, still stands by the initial timeframe of no international 'free' travel until at least 2024 ie. 5 years. Other people I know in Air Port management are working on the same time frame. Just keep yourselves and family safe and prepared for the worst.
The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
Had to read that twice to make sure we're on the same page.... And yes we are. These multiples being thrown around are insane. I own a nice, profitable, small business. Hard work, stressful, taxed to an inch of it's life: But I make a good living, with great cashflow, multiple years profit in the bank should the worst happen.... and it's worth??? Stuff all. Be lucky to get 3 years net profit, plus plant and equipment: Very lucky. Yet businesses that are only one regulation from being shut down (eg after pay), or a david in a goliaths world (eg. tesla) are being pumped... and pumped... and pumped... The one thing I've come to learn, is that it takes the market (ie people) far longer to accept the truth when they need to calculate it themselves... or what I'm saying is, this insanity is likely to go on for years... sickening. I just feather my nest: At the end of the day, Ferrari's and Porsche's would be nice: But I only need enough to make a comfortable living, regardless of what happens: And in 5 or so years, anything might: but until then, I'll keep saving and investing in real stuff: The stuff people 'smarter' than me are turning their noses up at.
Mags replied to Katwomyn's topic in Macro Factors
Very much so. Much of what the media report and portray is total BS, statistics manipulated to suit a narrative: Usually to make the boomers look great and the generations around them worse. The youth of today, in general, are far more street smart and conservative than the media will ever tell you. Yes, there are rat bags: But mostly the kids 20+ actually really impress me, far more than their flashy, kim kardashian mimicking parents.
Well then we have a problem: As humans are the only species that enable the weak to breed. In the animal kingdom, it's not unheard of to eat the weak: Here we tax the 'middle' and give it to the poor...
Why? The evidence says, someone with high cholesterol, does NOT live any longer by going on statins. That's the truth of the matter. It's fascinating watching humans at the present. Covid has brought everything to the forefront. For example: The 'anti-big-gov' and 'rights of freedom' crowd screaming that the government can't force them to wear a mask... Nothing is worse for the surveliance than people covering their faces!!!! People want to believe covid is a hoax, when there are semi trailers full of bodies in NYC... Yet, when a fact such as above is verified as correct: They want to argue it. They want to argue that humans will raise the earths temperature by 2degrees, and all hell will rain down on us: Yet here in Adelaide, we can see 35 degrees at lunch time, and be in the low teens only 12 hours later!!!! The atmosphere can disperse all that heat in 12 hours, yet they believe our behaviour can change the entire climate: LOL! I watched something on the lady who started oz harvest the other day: Methane from food waste, which is 25X times more stronger as a climate gas than CO2, yes 25 times, is a major contributor to the total 'green house gas' load.... but no one talks about this.... I've never seen a climate change 'believer' scream that we need to waste less food!!! I love it: The public are tearing themselves apart... while the billionaires, the world over, are now 50% richer than they were 12 months ago. The distraction tactics work:
Well, it's hard to argue for statins... When the use of them has never been able to increase lifespan. With or without them, you die on the same timeline. All I see from statins is reduced memory and cognitive function... How would I know? I'm in a tight margin industry and have to monitor my staffs productivity: It collapses when they go on statins. But the public are well trained to walk into doctors and ask for medication for anything. Think about the last time a friend said to you:"Doctor want's to put me on X medication for Y issue. I said I'm not keen on medication as first course of action: So I asked Doc if there's a natural way around this issue: Turns out my diet and lifestyle is totally gross: Eating processed food all day, drinking excessively, not caring where my food comes from. And oh my god, my fitness. Had no idea how lazy I've become. 10,000 steps per day they say is needed, I was no where near!" Can't say I've ever had a mate say anything like that: I got a good mate, even in his late 20's was on blood pressure medication.... Was it his high pressure, long hour job?Haha, no way, he worked slow as F at a super market: Maybe his 2 iced coffees a day (sugar loaded), packet of ciggies, and 10 nightly beers, coupled with a terrible frozen isle re-heat diet might have something to do with it.....So he pops pills every day.... Now I'm not saying medicine doesn't have a place: It sure does: But we are far to reliant on it: Trust doctors (when we probably shouldn't) and make legal drug pushers (big pharma) super rich... Crazy.
NEWS PAPER OR MEDIA ARTICLES
Mags replied to blueice's topic in Off Topic Chat
Well that's the point: If you've got trained and qualified personnel: Let them into the work they're trained to do.... Unfortunately, wives cousin works in the PM's office, she's had a couple REALLY nice jobs at Parliament house now: And away from the camera's and the media, these MP's are just kids: Totally lacking credibility in almost all facets of their lives: Get them one on one, and they are dog shit dumb: Dropped into 'safe seats' by union and corporate money to protect their own interests. Just in front of media and journalists they know 'how to present'... but away from that they are a disaster: hence the 'scandals' that come out. The parties, the women, the drugs, etc etc it's all real, and common place. Of course not all of them are like that, but most are. Reminds me of my mate who does home services, had a lady in tears as she begged him to do part payments.... No unusual to want to do part payments (when you work with the public, you soon learn most are seriously broke) but she was extremely ashamed... When he asked her why this is the gobsmacking reply: "I'm paid a ridiculously high wage: I run a state government project fund. It's $90,000,000. The state trusts me to look after $90m, but I can't look after myself"..... And that there, is the entire western government system at the end of late stage capitalism and the dying days of fiat currency. Just look at USA... Just look at it: The richest nation on earth, being smashed by an easily controlled and extinguished virus, with over 300,000,000 people the best they could offer for leader was a multiple time bankrupt conman, or an old corrupt fogey...... What a disaster.
Mags replied to bailej03's topic in Macro Factors
We are on that path: No doubt. But I suspect he's premature. As I've watched over the last 20 years, bubbles (in this case, faith in the currency) last far beyond what any 'sane' person believes possible: Our Australian Housing bubble being the most astounding thing I've ever seen: Even in the face of a first recession in 30 years, the deepest on record, the worst unemployment on record, and the chance of rates for borrower lowering further are near zero: House prices continue to RISE!!!!! And I believe this is why currency collapses are so sudden and spectacular: most people can't believe it will happen, until it does. I agree with jacsar: Gold could be the trade of our lifetimes at present. My position is all in: All in on:Profit spewing companiesCritical InfrastructureCash/liquid equivalents The 'crash' of 2020 wasn't complete: There was never the panic of 2009 or the dot com era: I didn't see people panicking about their future: there was no despair. I'm poised to scoop up the bargains when they come: My 'trader' mate tells me it's 2021 that it will come.Then we'll see the most outrageous boom in asset prices.... all due to government and central bank interference of course (capitalism and the real economy are long dead). Then by the end of the decade it all falls apart: Properly. In a way 95% of people simply can not understand or believe is possible: They are so used to the government and central banks rescuing them, they will scream in the streets for help: But it will be too late: We will have past the point of new $$$$ being able to create the illusion of growth or stability. Their house prices and their superannuation accounts will be steaming piles of worthless gunk, that they won't be able to off load. And it's all on track: Doesn't matter if you're a 4th turning guy, or a jefferson guy "first by inflation, then deflation, the children will find themselves homeless".... The only theory doesn't have this collapsed ending is MMT... and don't get me started on that rot: There's nothing modern about governments printing and spending money they don't have.