IPL 2018: Who will win the Indian Premier League this year?
By GQ Staff 6 April 2018
It's a new IPL season, with new rosters — yet similar strengths and weaknesses. With previous success predicting semi-finalists (and some finalists) of past seasons, Impact Index analyses the odds
IPL 2018 will see fresh teams after one of the biggest auctions since the tournament's inception took place in January. However, the strangest thing is that despite the reshuffling of players, the relative strengths of teams remained more or less the same. The Impact rankings of teams remained similar to what it was in the past. SRH, KKR and CSK did exceedingly well. RCB did a little better than previous years, while MI surprisingly slid a bit, despite retaining many of their key players. RR dramatically changed its slant of being a "smart buyer" of cost-effective players and bought some of the most expensive players this year, but consequently did not get their balance entirely right. DD continued making the same mistakes of the past.
The biggest mistake made by some teams was their continued preference of batting talent over bowling talent. Impact Index's previous studies (one published in our book Numbers Do Lie) have shown that T20 teams with stronger bowling teams invariably do better than batting-heavy sides, and a couple of others have recently alluded to this too. Yet, DD completely messed up on this count, and ended up with the poorest bowling attack in the tournament, undoing a lot of the good work they did otherwise in the auction. Similarly, MI have slid from their pre-eminent position in the last few IPLs purely because of their mediocre bowling picks this time.
Many experts felt that KXIP gave their best auction performance this year. Unfortunately, they were wildly off-the-mark, as not only did they select the poorest form players (as a unit) this year, but theirs is also among the weaker bowling sides. The current match-ups suggest they will struggle the most among all the teams this year, as they have so many times in the past. It would take some freakish performances, ala 2014, to get them into any kind of contention, though for that, they would need X-factor players, but sadly, on that, they are the most suspect amongst all teams this year (along with CSK).
The table below ranks the teams on various parameters, including form (last two years), best XI and best 15, big match performances and career records.
UPDATE: The above table connotes how the teams did at the auction. But post the forced absences, due to injuries (Mitchell Starc, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Jason Behrendorff) and bans (Steve Smith, David Warner) to the high impact players, the positions have changed just a bit. SRH has gone to second place (so CSK tops the chart now). KKR and RCB have both slid down a bit, enabling MI to go up, to third place. Both RCB and KKR have got relatively lower impact players as replacements and also lost an X-factor player each, with KKR suffering the bigger jolt. Alex Hales for Warner, Mitchell McClenaghan for Behrendorff and Heinrich Klaasen for Steve Smith haven't affected their teams as much (RR's position on the above table is still unchanged).
It's interesting how, overall, there are three clusters among these eight teams. CSK and SRH form the first cluster. MI, KKR and RCB the second one. And somewhat too predictably, RR, DD and KXIP the last cluster.
After the first lost of injuries and bans, the teams most likely to make the playoffs according to this study are CSK, SRH and MI with KKR if they don't suffer any more injuries. RCB are close at their heels and RR are a bit of a dark horse, thanks to their X-factor players. These are the six teams really in the fray, according to our study.
Some quick thoughts on each team, through the Impact Index prism, are below.
David Warner (retained 12.5 c), Manish Pandey (INR 11 cr), Rashid Khan Arman (INR 9 cr), Bhuvneshwar Kumar (retainedINR 8.5 c), , Shikhar Dhawan (INR 5.2 cr), Wriddhiman Saha (INR 5 cr), Kane Williamson (INR 3 cr), Sandeep Sharma (INR 3 cr), Shakib Hasan (INR 2 crore), Carlos Brathwaite (INR 2 crore), Yusuf Pathan (INR 1.9 cr), Mohammad Nabi Eisakhil (INR 1 cr), Chris Jordan (INR 1 cr), Billy Stanlake (INR 50 lakh), Siddharth Kaul (INR 3.8 crore), Deepak Hooda (INR 3.6 cr), Syed Khaleel Ahmed (INR 3 cr), Shreevats Goswami (INR 1 cr), Basil Thampi (INR 95 lakh), T Natarajan (INR 40 lakh), Bipul Sharma (INR 20 lakh), Mehdi Hasan (INR 20 lakh), Ricky Bhui (Rs 20 lakh), Sachin Baby (INR 20 lakh), Tanmay Agarwal (INR 20 lakh), Alex Hales (INR 1 cr).
SRH did the best at the auction. By a combination of retentions, right-to-match cards (RTMs) and auction buys they managed to keep as many as nine players from their previous team.
They have the best spinner in T20 cricket currently (Rashid Khan), the best Indian seamer (Bhuvneshwar Kumar). Though they will now miss their best IPL batsman of the last two seasons (David Warner).
Their bowling attack is amongst the strongest, their form (in the last two years) is the best and they have the highest impact squad of 15 amongst all teams this year.
The batsmen comprising their middle-order have been a bit suspect recently. Yusuf Pathan, Shakib Al Hasan, Carlos Brathwaite have been lackluster recently and Deepak Hooda somehow hasn't clicked in the IPL.
X-factor players (these are players the opposition are most wary of, as they can turn a match on its head very quickly on their own): Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi, Deepak Hooda, David Warner, Alex Hales.
Prediction: Likely to be in the playoffs
MS Dhoni (retainedINR 15 cr), Suresh Raina (retained INR 11 cr), Kedar Jadhav (INR 7.8 crore), Ravindra Jadeja (retained INR 7 cr), Dwayne Bravo (INR 6.4 crore), Karn Sharma (INR 5 crore), Shane Watson (INR 4 cr), Shardul Thakur (INR 2.6 cr), Ambati Rayudu (INR 2.2 cr), Murali Vijay (INR 2 cr), Harbhajan Singh (INR 2 cr), Faf Du Plessis (Rs 1.6 cr), Mark Wood (INR 1.5 cr), Sam Billings (INR 1 cr), Muhammad Imran Tahir (Rs 1 crore), Deepak Chahar (Rs 80 lakh), Mitchell Santner (Rs 50 lakh), Lungisani Ngidi (INR 50 lakh), KM Asif (INR 40 lakh), Kshitiz Sharma (INR 20 lakh), Monu Singh (INR 20 lakh), Jagadeesan Narayan (INR 20 lakh), Dhruv Shorey (INR 20 lakh), Kanishk Seth (INR 20 lakh), Chaitanya Bishnoi (INR 20 lakh)
Despite the snide tag of "30+" team, CSK is a strong unit. Many of them have been immensely successful in their T20 careers and the recent form of many of them has been surprisingly good too.
Harbhajan Singh and Karn Sharma should be a potent spinning duo - their restrictive abilities are among the best.
MS Dhoni's powers as a finisher have waned somewhat but his captaincy and wicketkeeping are still top-notch. The charge of playing for CSK might just bring him back to his best.
No proven Indian T20 pacer. Shardul Thakur would have to overachieve. ?Death bowling - There is no one to accompany Dwayne Bravo in this, though Mark Wood might just be an inspired pick ahead of bigger names.
X-factor players: MS Dhoni, Suresh Raina, Dwayne Bravo, Shane Watson (though Watson has been off-colour for a while). They could struggle a bit on this count.
Rohit Sharma (retained INR 15 cr), Hardik Pandya (retained INR 11 cr), Krunal Pandya (INR 8.8 cr), Jasprit Bumrah (retained INR 7 cr), Ishan Kishan (INR 6.2 cr), Kieron Pollard (INR 5.4 cr), Pat Cummins (INR 5.4 cr), Evin Lewis (INR 3.8 cr), Surya Kumar Yadav (INR 3.2 cr), Mustafizur Rahman (INR 2.2 cr), Ben Cutting (INR 2.2 cr), Rahul Chahar (INR 1.9 cr), Pradeep Sangwan (INR 1.5 cr), Jason Behrendorff (INR 1.5 cr), Jean-Paul Duminy (INR 1 cr), Saurabh Tiwary (INR 80 lakh), Tajinder Dhillon (INR 55 lakh), Akila Dhananjaya (INR 50 lakh), Siddhesh Lad (INR 20 lakh), Aditya Tare (INR 20 lakh), Mayank Markande (INR 20 lakh), Anukul Roy (INR 20 lakh), Sharad Lumba (INR 20 lakh), Mohsin Khan (INR 20 lakh), MD Nidheesh (INR 20 lakh), MD Dinesan (INR 20 lakh), Mitchell McClenaghan (INR 1 cr).
Strong Indian core from the previous champion team.
Big match players.
MI's bowling played a huge role in the past. This time, they have faltered in constructing their bowling line-up. They had the fifth-best bowling attack this time before RCB was weakened due to Coulter-Nile's injury; now they are fourth on this count, which should still worry them.
Mustafizur has not been in great form consistently in this format in recent times, partly due to injury issues. His performances could be critical to this team. Hardik Pandya has not been a good T20 bowler; he too will need to step up.
Chahar is untested and Krunal Pandya is MI's only spinning strength, which may not augur well for them. Dhananjaya could be an interesting addition but may struggle to get into the XI consistently without affecting the team balance.
X-factor players: Evin Lewis, Rohit Sharma, Krunal Pandya, Kieron Pollard, Jasprit Bumrah. (Hardik Pandya has actually not produced single-handed dominating performances in the T20 format but that could change.)
Prediction: Should make the playoffs
Sunil Narine (retained INR 12.5 cr), Chris Lynn (INR 9.6 cr), Mitchell Starc (INR 9.4 cr), Andre Russell (retained INR 8.5 cr) Dinesh Karthik (INR 7.4 cr), Robin Uthappa (INR 6.4 cr), Kuldeep Yadav (INR 5.8 cr), Piyush Chawla (INR 4.2 cr), Nitish Rana (INR 3.4 cr), Kamlesh Nagarkoti (INR 3.2 cr), Shivam Mavi (INR 3 cr), Mitchell Johnson (INR 2 cr), Shubman Gill (INR 1.8 cr), R Vinay Kumar (INR 1 cr), Rinku Singh (INR 80 lakh), Cameron Delport (INR 30 lakh), Javon Searless (INR 30 lakh), Ishank Jaggi (INR 20 lakh), Apoorv Wankhade (INR 20 lakh), Tom Curran (INR 1 cr).
They were derided in the media for poor bench strength but they had the strongest playing XI among all teams after the auctions (even after Starc's injury, they are in the top three in this respect) - this strength was completely glossed over.
They will miss the best T20 pacer in the world (Mitchell Starc) but they still have the best T20 batsman in the world currently (Chris Lynn), the best T20 all-rounder (Andre Russell) and the best Indian T20 batsman in the last four years (Robin Uthappa, who is shockingly not in the national squad) make them a massive force.
They may have spent a little excessively on Under-19 Indian talent, but from a long-term angle, that could make them an exciting team for a while.
They had the best bowling attack among all teams till Starc bowed out. They are still the second-best though, and their form as individual players has been excellent too.
Dinesh Karthik as captain brings freshness and hunger to the job. As a batsman, he has been at his very best in the last year.
Lynn, like Starc, has also been injury-prone in the past, and if he too struggles on this count, then their bench strength might be exposed.
X-factor players: Chris Lynn, Mitchell Starc, Sunil Narine, Andre Russell, Robin Uthappa.
Prediction: Without further injuries, should make the playoffs.
Virat Kohli (retainedINR 17 cr), AB de Villiers (retained INR 11 cr), Chris Woakes (INR 7.4 cr), Yuzvendra Chahal (INR 6 cr), Umesh Yadav (INR 4.2 cr), Brendon McCullum (INR 3.6 cr), Washington Sundar (INR 3.2 cr), Sarfraz Khan (retainedINR 3 cr), Navdeep Saini (INR 3 cr), Quinton De Kock (INR 2.8 cr), Mohd Siraj (INR 2.6 cr), Colin De Grandhomme (INR 2.2 cr), Murugan Ashwin (INR 2.2 cr), Nathan Coulter-Nile (INR 2.2 cr), Parthiv Patel (INR 1.7 cr), Moeen Ali (Rs 1.7 cr), Mandeep Singh (INR 1.4 cs), Manan Vohra (INR 1.1 cr), Tim Southee (INR 1 cr), Pawan Negi (INR 1 cr), Kulwant Khejroliya (Rs 85 lakh), Aniket Choudhary (INR 30 lakh), Anirudha Joshi (INR 20 lakh), Pavan Deshpande (INR 20 lakh), Corey Anderson (INR 2 cr).
Without taking big match performances into account, RCB has the strongest 15-man unit this year.
This was the strongest RCB bowling attack in years, till Coulter-Nile's injury. The batting line-up is awe-inspiring still though.
Too much high quality overseas talent, an embarrassment of riches that could affect the balance of the squad.
Their Indian pacers are not restrictive - both Siraj and Yadav struggle on this count in this format.
X-factor players: Virat Kohli, AB de Villiers, Brendon McCullum, Yuzvendra Chahal, Nathan Coulter-Nile.
Prediction: If the bowling unit overachieves somewhat, they could make the playoffs.
Steve Smith (retained 12.5 crore), Ben Stokes (INR 12.5 cr), Jaydev Unadkat (INR 11.5 cr), Sanju Samson (INR 8 cr), Jofra Archer (INR 7.2 cr), Gowtham Krishnappa (INR 6.2 cr), Jos Buttler (INR 4.4 cr), Ajinkya Rahane (INR 4 cr), Darcy Short (INR 4 cr), Rahul Tripathi (INR 3.4 cr), Dhawal Kulkarni (INR 75 lakh), Zahir Khan Pakteen (INR 60 lakh), Ben Laughlin (INR 50 lakh), Dushmanta Chameera (INR 50 lakh), Stuart Binny (INR 50 lakh), Aryaman Vikram Birla (INR 30 lakh), Anureet Singh Kathuria (INR 30 lakh), Prashant Chopra (INR 20 lakh), Ankit Sharma (INR 20 lakh), Midhun S (INR 20 lakh), Shreyas Gopal (INR 20 lakh), Jatin Saxena (INR 20 lakh), Mahipal Lomror (INR 20 lakh), Heinrich Klaasen (INR 50 lakh).
Despite losing Smith, still four key members from last year's finalist Pune Supergiants form RR's core this year, namely Ajinkya Rahane, Rahul Tripathi, Ben Stokes and Jaydev Unadkat.
They have the most lethal X-factor players this year, even though new players Jofra Archer, D'Arcy Short and Krishnappa Gowtham are untested in the IPL.
The bowling overall is the weakest after DD's in this IPL. This could undo the X-factor performances.
Their top-order could be a bit too sluggish - Rahane, Tripathi and Samson will have to be careful not to get bogged down.
They lack a tested wrist-spinner. Shreyas Gopal is too new.
The Indians on their bench list are largely untested.
X-factor players: Ben Stokes, Jofra Archer, D'Arcy Short, Jos Buttler, Krishnappa Gowtham, Jaydev Unadkat.
Prediction: Not a shoo-in for the playoffs but might just be a dark horse due to their X-factor players
Rishabh Pant (retainedINR 15 cr), Chris Morris (retainedINR 11 cr), Shreyas Iyer (retainedINR 7 cr), Glenn Maxwell (INR 9 cr), Kagiso Rabada (INR 4.2 cr), Amit Mishra (INR 4 cr), Vijay Shankar (INR 3.2 cr), Shahbaz Nadeem (INR 3.2 cr), Rahul Tewatia (INR 3 cr), Mohammed Shami (INR 3 cr), Gautam Gambhir (INR 2.8 cr), Trent Boult (INR 2.2 cr), Colin Munro (INR 1.9 cr), Jason Roy (INR 1.5 cr), Daniel Christian (INR 1.5 cr), Naman Ojha (INR 1.4 cr), Prithvi Shaw (INR 1.2 cr), Gurkeerat Singh (INR 75 lakh), Avesh Khan (INR 70 lakh), Abhishek Sharma (INR 55 lakh), Jayant Yadav (INR 50 lakh), Sandeep Lamichhane (INR 20 lakh), Sayan Ghosh (INR 20 lakh), Harshal Patel (INR 20 lakh), Manjot Kalra (INR 20 lakh)
Gautam Gambhir as captain in his hometown hungry for a last hurrah could well be an inspired choice.
Some explosive batting options in Colin Munro, Rishabh Pant, Glenn Maxwell and Chris Morris.
Some elementary mistakes in selecting their bowling line-up have left them as the weakest bowling team in this IPL - which could be a blunder they cannot cover up for.
Mohammed Shami has been very poor in this format; selecting him on the basis of performances in other formats is a shocker.
Amit Mishra has been rapidly deteriorating in this format too.
X-factor players: Glenn Maxwell, Chris Morris, Colin Munro, Rishabh Pant, Jason Roy.
Prediction: Will struggle to not be among the bottom three teams.
King's XI Punjab
Axar Patel (retainedINR 12.5 cr), KL Rahul (INR 11 cr), Ravichandran Ashwin (INR 7.6 cr), Andrew Tye (INR 7.2 cr), Aaron Finch (INR 6.2 cr), Marcus Stoinis (INR 6.2 cr), Karun Nair (INR 5.6 cr), Mujeeb Zadran (INR 4 cr), David Miller (INR 3 cr), Ankit Singh Rajpoot (INR 3 cr), Mohit Sharma (INR 2.4 cr), Barinder Sran (INR 2.2 cr), Chris Gayle (INR 2 cr), Yuvraj Singh (INR 2 cr), Ben Dwarshuis (INR 1.4 cr), Mayank Agarwal (INR 1 cr), Manoj Tiwary (INR 1 cr), Akshdeep Nath (INR 1 cr), Mayank Dagar (INR 20 lakh), Manzoor Dar (INR 20 lakh), Pradeep Sahu (INR 20 lakh)
KL Rahul was a good buy for them, though their best value for money player this time perhaps was Manoj Tiwary.
They have some solid batsmen, but they will only be optimally utilized if they play in their proper positions. If Karun Nair does not open or Aaron Finch not bat in the middle-overs, the sting of their batting unit will be considerably reduced.
They have a weak death bowling attack; Barinder Sran and Mohit Sharma are likely to struggle on their batting-friendly home pitches of Mohali and Indore.
Gayle and Yuvraj are way past their prime. Since keeping them on the bench will be tricky, KXIP might struggle to find the right balance.
The middle-order is shaky anyway. Miller has been in poor form lately and Stoinis has been very inconsistent.
No proven wrist spinner in their midst. Pardeep Sahu as the only Indian option is not exactly inspiring and Mujeeb Zadran is just 17.
Ashwin's conventional recent T20 numbers are misleading. Considering his performances against the top four IPL teams and in the World T20 only, he is nowhere near the force he was. If his leg-break and googly experiments don't deliver, this could be the beginning of the end for Ashwin's IPL career.
Ashwin may be a good choice as captain from a strategy angle, but temperamentally, his recent social media and press conference outbursts don't augur well, especially in light of the pressure he is under as a T20 player currently. Aaron Finch would have been the most stable option but KXIP mentor Virender Sehwag (perhaps the team's biggest Achilles Heel) does not favour an overseas captain.
X-factor players: Aaron Finch, K Rahul, Andrew Tye, Chris Gayle. (Gayle's x-factor was not in evidence in the last two IPLs and Rahul will bear the responsibility of being the main batsman for the first time. Yuvraj has done very little in the last two years to be thought of in this context here. They have the iffiest set of X-factor players this year.)
Prediction: Would overachieve if not in the bottom two.
The above, of course, assumes that every team will play to potential and no one underperforms or punches over their weight, which rarely happens. But due to the larger sample size of matches, about 75% of the time teams do cumulatively fit these expectations.
Unfortunately, some teams do not learn from previous mistakes. In IPL 2017, two teams had a meltdown during the tournament (RCB and GL) and ceased to be competitive midway through the tournament. KXIP (who had been placed at seventh position on impact before the tournament began) came fifth, and perhaps felt they did not do too badly; that they had actually come fifth among six properly functioning teams was lost on them perhaps. Despite a chance to reboot their approach, they ended up perpetuating it yet again. DD's mistake of going after batsmen at the cost of bowlers was not a new one either.
The French don't play cricket but their saying is the most apt here - the more things change, the more they stay the same.
All Impact numbers are on a scale of 0 to 5.
Form Impact takes into account performances from 1st January 2016.
X-factor players tally does not affect Impact numbers
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