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Justin Trudeau starts to turn the corner: Hepburn
By Bob HepburnPolitics
Sat., June 13, 2015timer3 min. read
There's no doubting that Justin Trudeau has had a rough couple of months.
Once comfortably ahead in the polls, the Liberal leader has seen his party's lead over the Conservatives and NDP evaporate, with growing fears among party faithful that the Liberals may finish a poor third in the Oct. 19 election.
In recent months, Trudeau's been branded a policy lightweight, ensnared in nasty high-profile riding nomination fights, criticized for supporting Stephen Harper's controversial Bill-51 anti-terrorism legislation, dismissed as gaffe-prone and been the target of a barrage of attack ads that mock everything about him from his budget views to his hair.
Adding to his troubles has been the surprise NDP victory in last month's Alberta provincial election.
The Alberta outcome is prompting federal New Democrats and some media pundits to go so far as to predict an Orange Wave sweeping across Canada, complete with NDP leader Tom Mulcair becoming our next prime minister.
It's been so bad for Trudeau that many long-time Liberal supporters fear the party may never regain the enthusiasm and drive it enjoyed when Trudeau was elected leader more than two years ago.
It's not all lost for the Liberals, though.
Indeed, signs are emerging that suggest Trudeau is turning a corner and becoming the formidable campaign force that Liberals hoped he would be and that Conservatives and NDP strategists feared all along.
First, Trudeau has silenced the criticism about his lack of policies.
In rapid succession, he has introduced a detailed economic plan and a national infrastructure program.
His economic platform calls for tax breaks for the middle class, shifting more of the tax burden to upper-income earners, improved Canada Pension and old age security benefits and a Canada Child Benefit that is tied to family income.
His infrastructure platform includes new sources of funding for cities and working with municipalities to deal with the damage caused by changing long-term weather patterns.
Next to be unveiled will be a major education platform.
Second, Trudeau is starting to showcase his team of star candidates. This strategy is aimed at depicting Trudeau not as a lone wolf, but as the chairman of the board of a team of experienced, senior leaders.
For example, Trudeau has recruited Nicola Di Orio, a high-profile Montreal labour lawyer who is seen as a possible justice minister. Other new candidates who could be part of a Trudeau cabinet are Bill Morneau, executive chairman of Morneau Shepell, an international employee benefits firm, who will run in the Toronto Centre riding and has been touted as a future finance minister, and former Toronto police chief Bill Blair, who is running in Scarborough Southwest.
In addition, former cabinet ministers Ralph Goodale, Scott Brison and Carolyn Bennett will also play key roles in stressing the party depth behind Trudeau.
Third, Trudeau is showing he is a fighter. Long seen as "soft," Trudeau has started to strike back at Conservative attack ads with his own ads that are tougher than the voters have seen from the Liberal leader in the past. "Voters want strong, tough leaders and that's what we need to be showing with Justin," a Trudeau team insider said.
Fourth, Trudeau is adopting a lower public profile. This time-limited strategy allows him to focus more on policy preparation, debate rehearsals and campaign logistics and tactics without unduly burning himself out before the official campaign launches immediately after Labour Day.
Fifth, knowing how critical they are, Trudeau has already put in long days of work in preparation for the televised leaders' debates.
One thing Trudeau continues to have going for him is the rock-star-like excitement he generates almost everywhere he goes. When he dropped in unannounced at a Paramount Fine Foods restaurant in Mississauga late one night several weeks ago after a fundraising event, he was instantly swarmed by customers wanting "selfies" with their families. It's hard to imagine that happening with Harper or Mulcair.
Still, Trudeau faces an uphill fight if he hopes to move the Liberals into at least Official Opposition status in the next Parliament.
The most-recent polls show the race is a dead-heat between the Liberals, Tories and NDP. Mulcair is a strong opponent, especially in Quebec where the NDP is running strong and Harper is a vicious campaigner, micro-targeting voter groups knowing he needs barely 36 per cent of support nationally to win a majority in a tight three-way race.
Can Trudeau bounce back into the lead by election day?
It will be a real struggle, but for Liberals the chances of pulling off a strong election outcome are looking better than they have for a long time.
Bob Hepburn's column appears Thursday. bhepburn@thestar.ca
Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau