Oscar Nominations: Final Predictions - Time for a 'Hail Meryl'?
Meryl Steep in August: Osage County
My confidence in the award predictions game is shot after the bombshell of this week's Canadian Screen Awards nominations. If directors like Louise Archambault (Gabrielle) and Jeff Barnaby (Rhymes for Young Ghouls) aren't safe, then who is? If the Canadian field of awards feels competitive, though, then the Academy Awards race seems especially tight. It's so jam-packed that esteemed veterans like Meryl Streep and Robert Redford, both performing at the top of their games in August: Osage County and All is Lost, respectively, might be squeezed out of the race. Factor in campaigning and the Oscar race of 2013-2014 is especially cutthroat. It might be time to say a "Hail, Meryl"!
Hail Meryl, full of grace, Oscar is with thee; blessed art thou amongst actresses, and blessed is the fruit of thy womb, Julia Roberts. Holy Meryl, Mother of Acting, pray for those who vote for otherwise, now and at the hour of their death. Amen.
Amy Adams in American Hustle
The conversation in the Oscar race has largely shifted since the Merylgate of Sunday's Golden Globes, which wasn't a surprise since even I predicted Amy Adams to win, from asking which films will be nominated for Best Picture (does The Wolf of Wall Street endorse the bad behaviour it depicts?) to asking which actress among the six heavy hitters will be left off the ballot (Will Meryl or Amy be left in the dust?). Why don't they allow for a flexible number of nominees? Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Judi Dench, and Emma Thompson all seem safe to land a nomination. Streep and Adams have had a bit more variability in the precursors. Much of the sense that Amy Adams has pulled ahead of Streep is, from my point of view, attributed mostly to the undeniable momentum that American Hustle has in the race right now and to Adams' standing as one of Oscar's bridesmaids who might finally become a bride. People really want Adams to win and she's doing the work to make it happen. One could apply the same logic to Leonardo DiCaprio's Golden Globe win for The Wolf of Wall Street to argue why he might push out Robert Redford or maybe (but less likely) Bruce Dern. (Redford earned the SAG nomination, but The Wolf of Wall Street wasn't ready in time to show to SAG voters.)
Admittedly, an equally strong chorus says Streep has received enough love from the awards circuit. Streep herself might be the biggest proponent of this notion. The fact that she doesn't seem to care about a nomination when Adams clearly does care could swing the few votes that might be necessary in such a tight race.
Support for Streep, on the other hand, has been based mostly—if not solely—on her performance. Read the reviews, read the trades, and such. I might be biased, but Streep seems to have enough people who recognize the significance of her performance in August: Osage County. Support for the performance itself is what really matters. (Unless you're Michael Fassbender and Demian Bichir is hosting a champagne lunch.) The so-called "Streep fatigue" doesn't seem to exist in the Academy. They've nominated her eighteen times. There's probably enough of a "Yay, Meryl!" contingent to get her the #1 votes she needs, especially since this performance is arguably better than that for which she won in The Iron Lady. If anything, a field as competitive as this one could yield a nomination for someone like Brie Larson who has a comparatively smaller group of supporters, but all whom are putting her at #1.
The voting for the Academy Award nominations and the Golden Globe winners were both due January 8th, so there's as much reason to assume that Adams' win came too late in the game or that her win is a sure sign of a shift in favour. On the other hand, one knows that it was a really strong year for movies if performances as good as Streep's and Adams' might not make the cut. It's a good reminder that awards really aren't the be-all-end-all of quality. Just look to the gaps in this year's list of the nominations for the Canadian Screen Awards and see how much the predictions game can be a pointless endeavour.
Without further ado, here are final Oscar predictions for entertainment purposes.
What do you think will make the cut?
*New or moved
Best Picture:
Almost put: Blue Jasmine*, Dallas Buyers Club*
What about: Her* Rush, Saving Mr. Banks*
Best Director:
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips*
Almost put: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis*
What about: Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; Stephen Frears, Philomena*, Spike Jonze,Her*, Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Almost put: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
What About: Christian Bale, American Hustle; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix, Her; Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Almost put: Amy Adams, American Hustle
What about: Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color; Brie Larson, Short Term 12, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said*
Daniel Brühl, Rush
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Almost put: Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
What about: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street, Matthew McConaughey, Mud.
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Almost put: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine,
What about: Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street*, Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
American Hustle - David O. Russell, Eric Singer
Blue Jasmine - Woody Allen
Her - Spike Jonze *
Inside Llewyn Davis - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Nebraska – Bob Nelson
Almost put: Enough Said (Nicole Holofcener)*
What about: Dallas Buyers Club*, Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón, Jonás Cuarón), Mud (Jeff Nichols), Saving Mr. Banks – Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith
12 Years a Slave – John Ridley
Captain Phillips – Billy Ray
Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Philomena – Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
The Wolf of Wall Street -- Terence Winter
Almost put: August: Osage County – Tracy Letts
What about: Blue is the Warmest Color (Abdellatif Kechiche and Ghalia Lacroix)
Rush*
Alt: Prisoners
What About: American Hustle, The Book Thief, The Grandmaster*, The Great Gatsby, Nebraska, Prisoners,, The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Film Editing:
The Wolf of Wall Street*
Alt: Rush* (this really should be nominated here...)
What About: Dallas Buyers Club*, The Great Gatsby, Inside Llewyn Davis, Saving Mr. Banks,
Best Score:
Philomena*
Alt: Saving Mr. Banks
What About: The Croods, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom*, Nebraska, Philomena, Prisoners, Rush
Best Costumes:
Alt: Oz: The Great and Powerful*
What About: Blue Jasmine, The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Best Production Design:
American Hustle*
Inside Llewyn Davis*
Oz: The Great and Powerful
Alt: Gravity*
What about: Lee Daniels' The Butler,* Star Trek Into Darkness
Best Visual Effects:
Alt: Star Trek Into Darkness*
What about: Man of Steel, Oblivion
Best Make-up and Hair:
Jackass: Bad Grandpa*
The Lone Ranger*
Alt: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire*
What about: Dallas Buyers Club*
Shortlist of eligible films at Coming Soon.
Best Song:
"Let it Go," Frozen
"The Moon Song", Her
"Ordinary Love," Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
"Over the Love," The Great Gatsby
"Young and Beautiful," The Great Gatsby
List of eligible songs at Awards Daily.
Best Documentary Feature:
Almost put: The Armstrong Lie
Shortlist of final fifteen contenders
Best Animated Feature:
What about: The Legend of Sarila (go Canada!)
-List of submitted features at Awards Daily.
Best Foreign Language Film:
The Broken Circle Breakdown - Belgium
The Grandmaster - Hong Kong
The Great Beauty - Italy
The Hunt - Denmark
Two Lives - Germany
(We now proceed to the stage of random guessing.)
Lone Survivor*
Alt: The Great Gatsby*
What About: All is Lost*, American Hustle*, Rush*
Captain Phillips*
Alt: 12 Years a Slave*
What About: The Great Gatsby, The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug, Star Trek into Darkness
Best Animated Short:
Gloria Victoria
The Missing Scarf
Subconscious Password
Best Live Action Short:
n/a (I have nothing on which to base this category.)
Best Documentary Short:
What are your Oscar predictions?
Labels: 12 Years a Slave, All is Lost, American Hustle, Amy Adams, August Osage County, Canadian screen awards, Gravity, Meryl Streep, Oscars, Robert Redford, Wolf of Wall Street