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Political crises don't come much bigger than Brexit
By John Crace 9 July 2018
Brexit secretary David Davis has resigned, and with less than eight months until Britain formally leaves the EU, where that leaves the prime minister, the government and the EU negotiations is – right now – anyone's guess
It had all appeared to be going as well as Theresa May could have reasonably hoped. Whether it had been her threat that anyone who walked out of the Chequers' cabinet summit on Friday would be stripped of their ministerial limos and be made to take "the ride of shame" home in a taxi or just that ideology had run into the brick wall of reality was immaterial. Either way, the prime minister looked to have got her way for a soft Brexit and something like cabinet collective responsibility had been restored.
The Sunday papers had been dominated with headlines suggesting that the prime minister's authority over her party was now stronger than at any time since the general election of June last year. Michael Gove had gone from being one of a hard Brexit's strongest supporters to an ardent fan of Theresa May's rather vague and watered down "facilitated customs arrangement" overnight.
Boris Johnson, who had told the Chequers summit that supporting the prime minister's suggested customs solution would be like "polishing a turd", had also apparently willingly signed up to the deal and urged others round the table to do so. Maybe he enjoys turd polishing. Liam Fox, Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling – all leading Brexiteers – had written pieces for the Sunday papers declaring their undying support for the prime minister. David Davis, the Brexit secretary had spent Sunday at the British Grand Prix at Silverstone, but his silence indicated that he too had fallen in line.
A challenge to Theresa May's leadership in the coming hours or days is looking increasingly likely
Then, just before midnight on Sunday, came the news that Davis had resigned. His resignation letter took no prisoners. He claimed that the prime minister's "diluted" proposals would leave the UK in a weak negotiating position and would hand control of large swaths of our economy to the EU. At no point did he pledge his continuing loyalty to Theresa May. Within hours of his departure, junior Brexit minister Steve Baker also handed in his notice. The only minister left standing in the department for exiting the EU was Robin Walker. Would the last one out please turn off the lights?
Political crises don't come much bigger than this. With less than eight months to go until Britain formally leaves the EU on 29 March next year, Britain has a government that can't even agree with itself over what form the UK's withdrawal should take. Though ministers loyal to Number Ten did try to play down the significance of the resignations – one told the BBC's Ross Hawkins that Davis would be no great loss as he had always struggled with his brief, making one wonder why he had ever been allowed to stay in such an important position for so long if he was that stupid – the prime minister's authority is once again under threat. A challenge to her leadership in the coming hours or days is looking increasingly likely.
Business leaders, who had been guardedly reassured by Friday's rare show of unity from the government, have got the jitters once again. The country has seldom looked less prepared for the biggest political and constitutional upheaval since the Second World War. The referendum on the EU that had been called primarily to heal divisions within the Conservative Party now looks set not just to fracture it completely but to split the country with it.
Where we are now is an accident that was waiting to happen ever since Theresa May chose to trigger Article 50
But that was arguably always the most likely outcome of the Chequers' summit anyway. The brief show of cabinet collective responsibility over the weekend gave the illusion of unity, but divisions were always likely to surface sooner rather than later. The reality is that the prime minister's FCA always resembled a piece of magical thinking and would in any case be subject to further negotiations with the EU. Something that was never likely to win favour with Leavers or Remainers and would have inevitably unravelled at some point – either when it became clear we would basically be staying in the Single Market and the Customs Union or we would be crashing out of the EU with no deal.
Where we are now is an accident that was waiting to happen ever since Theresa May chose to trigger Article 50 and call a general election a year later, two of the most catastrophic political decisions in living memory. There was a very good reason why the EU had put a two year time limit on the Article 50 process. And that was because it imagined most countries would come to the conclusion it was far too difficult to get everything done within that time frame and choose to remain in the EU. Yet the prime minister, spurred on by Brexiteers who feared she was delaying too long and might never do so, triggered Article 50 before she had a clue what kind of withdrawal arrangements or future partnership she wanted with the EU. Only now have we the inklings of what the government wants and it is too little too late.
Last year's general election badly backfired on the prime minister. It was supposed to give her an unassailable majority, one that would neuter the hardliners on both wings of her party, wipe out Labour and leave her free to negotiate whatever kind of Brexit she was able to with the EU. We know how that ended. Since then we have had a government in stasis, with a prime minister whose only discernible attribute was procrastination. And when she finally reached the point where she could no longer delay making even a compromised decision, then all hell broke loose. Where that leaves the prime minister, the government and the EU negotiations is – right now – anyone's guess.
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