NBA Cheat Sheet: March 8th
Julian Edlow
We've got an 11-game slate on tap for Wednesday night with plenty of matchups to analyze. I'll do my best to provide you with the best and worst matchups focusing on statistics at each position, plus some bonus lineup building options.
Be sure to check in on the DK Live app throughout the day to monitor injury and lineup news. Another great way to help build your lineup is to tune into DKTV at 6 PM EST for Pre-Lock Live — a one hour show that will keep you posted on up to the minute news along with plenty of analysis.
Hit me up on Twitter with comments or questions: @julianedlow.
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – John Wall ($10,700) vs. Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets have been a gold mine for opposing PGs this season. They are now allowing an average of 58.7 total DKFP to the position — just 0.4 better than the Nets. Wall racked up 61 DKFP just last night in Phoenix (his second 60+ DKFP game in his last three), yet his salary is still down $300.
WORST – Chris Paul ($8,500) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – The Wolves rank right in the middle of the pack on the season in DKFP allowed to PGs, but they've been improving significantly as the season goes on. Allowing just 44.5 DKFP on average over the past five games has Minnesota ranked second in the league, surprisingly behind the Kings. Paul hasn't exactly been himself since returning from thumb surgery, having failed to reach value in five of six games. His matchup and recent play make CP3 pretty tough to trust in this situation.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700) vs. Brooklyn Nets – As they do at most positions, the Nets have consistently ranked at the bottom of the league defending SGs. Hardaway's been hot lately, playing at least 33 minutes in three straight games and averaging 37.5 DKFP over that span. The Nets present a great opportunity to remain hot. It's worth noting that with Dwyane Wade doubtful, Jimmy Butler ($9,200) gets a huge boost against the Magic, who've been average against SGs. Having just scored 46.25 DKFP against a tough Pistons' D without Wade, a matchup with Orlando has Jimmy sitting in a nice spot. However, Butler is QUESTIONABLE due to an illness, so make sure you monitor his status.
WORST – James Harden ($10,900) vs. Utah Jazz – Fading Harden at sub $11k is bold, but matchup-wise it makes sense on this slate. Utah just held the Boogie/Brow combo in check, while limiting Jrue Holiday to just 21 DKFP. The Jazz rank first in the NBA vs. SGs and second vs. PGs, so things won't come easy for The Beard. Harden's failed to reach value in six of his last nine games and posted just 26-7-5 in his last outing against Utah.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,800) vs. New York Knicks – Giannis is always an awesome fit at SF because you get back PG production. He had a bounce-back game against the Sixers on Monday, yet his salary has still dipped $200. The Knicks rank below average against PGs and SFs, and frankly just don't have anyone with a shot of covering The Greek Freak. Showing the ability to have a big game alongside a productive Khris Middleton ($6,600), as was the case Monday, was huge for Antetokounmpo's value.
WORST – Paul George ($8,100) vs. Detroit Pistons – George has had back-to-back stellar games, so it's definitely going against the grain to pick against him tonight. However, his salary has jumped $700 in the last week, and prior to his two-game hot streak, he had failed to reach 40 DKFP in six consecutive games. With the Pistons ranking fifth against SFs and allowing an average of just 33.9 DKFP over the past five games, George might be overpriced on this slate.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Paul Millsap ($7,700) vs. Brooklyn Nets – Millsap's been Mr. Consistency lately. He's exceeded value in five straight games, scoring between 42-43.5 DKFP in four consecutive outings. He's slightly underpriced given his recent production, and a matchup with the Nets should bring out the best in him. Brooklyn ranks 29th vs. PFs and is surrendering over 50 DKFP on average this season.
WORST – Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,900) vs. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs rank among the elite against bigs at both positions, and given WCS's inconsistencies, he could very well struggle. Cauley-Stein stepped onto the scene making a ton of noise post-Boogie trade, scoring 43.5 DKFP. Since then, he's failed to top 20 DKFP in three of five games.
Center Matchups
BEST – Rudy Gobert ($7,600) vs. Houston Rockets – Well the Sixers and Lakers are off tonight, so that takes the usual teams to target players against off the board. But the Rockets have struggled mightily against centers this season, to the tune of allowing over 61 DKFP per game over the past 10 contests. Gobert has posted a double-double with at least three blocks in both of his games against Houston this season and is averaging more than 53 DKFP in his last two outings.
WORST – Brook Lopez ($6,200) vs. Atlanta Hawks – Poor Lopez has played at Memphis and at Utah in two of his last three games and now finds himself playing in Atlanta. The Hawks rank fourth in DKFP allowed to centers this season, and Lopez posted an underwhelming 16.5 DKFP in 32 minutes of action in his last outing.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Balanced Approach – If I have to take a player above $10k I'm going with Wall, but tonight's slate seems like a good time to go with a balanced attack. Kawhi Leonard's ($10,000) been on fire, but against the Kings, he could definitely see plenty of rest late. I love starting with affordable options like Antetokounmp, Millsap and Gobert (who all have the best matchups at their positions on the slate) and going from there.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Sean Kilpatrick ($4,600) – Kilpatrick's last two games have been outstanding — averaging 34.6 DKFP in 27.5 minutes. The Hawks rank seventh-worst in DKFP allowed to guards this season. Reggie Jackson ($5,100) has also been hot over the past couple of games and has the potential to play way above his current salary.
Jazz Injuries – The Jazz are currently listing Derrick Favors and Shelvin Mack as out, and George Hill and Joe Johnson have questionable tags. There should be some value in Utah against a poor Houston defense.
Al Horford and Nikola Jokic are both question marks tonight, so Amir Johnson ($4,200) and Mason Plumlee ($5,100) could also see value boosts if those starters are out.
Plenty of injury news is sure to open up lots of value, so make sure you check the DK Live app prior to lock for all the latest breaking news regarding injuries, lineups and analysis.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
Paul George will sit out tomorrow's game in New Orleans (left hamstring strain). Moe Harkless listed as questionable (sore lower back).
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