Rethinking Niagara's Cities and Towns
Here's how some urban planners envision future municipalities as Canada grapples with a housing crunch.
Do we need to rethink how we're planning our cities and towns? Ask John Henricks, President of Niagara urban planning firm NPG Planning Solutions Inc., and he'll tell you that if we want any hope of solving Canada's housing problems, the answer is yes.
"The demand for housing is high, [but] the supply is low, so we've got to increase that supply," says Henricks.
To plan the cities and townships of the future, Henricks says Canadian urban planners need to plan for population growth, and fast. Last month, the federal government announced its plans to increase immigration into Canada, with the goal of welcoming 500,000 immigrants in 2025. The government also announced it would focus more on attracting newcomers to small towns and rural communities.[1]
Given its current growth trajectory, Niagara could soon become home to a lot more people. Between 2016 and 2021, the region's population grew by more than 30,000 people.[2] Over the next 20 years, it could top 600,000.[3] Urban planning experts agree that more buildings need to go up—Shauna Brail, Associate Professor at the University of Toronto Mississauga's Institute for Management & Innovation, says that the need for warehouse space, for example, "has increased dramatically" as Canadian cities face shortages of industrial space for lease.[4] But undoubtedly one of the biggest priorities for urban planners is getting more housing built.
Meeting the Demand for Housing
Housing developments can be tough to plan in some parts of Niagara where developable land comes in limited supply, says Henricks. Some cities and towns will have no choice, he says, but to intensify.
"The old, you know, 50-foot lots on 66-foot-wide roads, those are not sustainable."
That's especially true in Lincoln, where two-thirds of the municipality's land, says the Town of Lincoln's Director of Planning and Development, Matt Bruder, is protected Greenbelt or Niagara Escarpment land. Creating higher urban density, or building upwards and inwards, instead of out, could solve the problem. Rather than developing single family homes with large yards, the region could look to developments like apartments, condominiums, and stacked townhouses, among others, to create more housing for more people. These kinds of developments could help alleviate Canada and Niagara's housing woes. They save on land, can control urban sprawl, and are generally more affordable.
Matt Bruder, Director of Planning and Development at the Town of Lincoln
A registered professional planner with nearly 15 years of industry experience in private and public sectors, Matt's experiences ranges managing the Provincial Class Environmental Assessment process for large transportation projects to directing planning, building and by-law departments with the effort of creating, enhancing and maintaining complete communities.
Planning for Complete Communities
While housing is top of mind for a lot of cities right now, planning for complete communities—mixed-use areas that meet most, if not all, of the needs of their residents—goes beyond building residential infrastructure, says Bruder. It also means rethinking transportation and considering what amenities are accessible to residents, whether they be doctor and dentist offices, grocery stores, or even pubs.
"It all feeds into each other," he says. "If you're not providing all the elements of a community, then people have got to go elsewhere […] so we need places to live, but we need places to work and shop, too."
The design of complete communities, or mixed-use neighbourhoods, is a trend on the rise in Canada and internationally.[5] In a mixed-use neighbourhood, people become less dependent on cars and have more choices when it comes to housing. Buildings are revitalized instead of torn down, a more efficient use of land than outward sprawl. People and businesses want to invest in the community.[6] Today, nearly 20 per cent of Canadians are aged 65 and over.[7] For aging Canadians, mixed-use neighbourhoods that offer a variety of accommodation types—houses, apartments, and townhouses, for example—can allow Canadians to age within their communities.
"[People are looking] at neighborhoods that can really work for everybody," says Brail. "For families, for young adults, and for aging adults."
Shauna Brail, Associate Professor at the University of Toronto Mississauga's Institute for Management & Innovation
An Associate Professor at the Institute for Management & Innovation, Shauna is cross-appointed at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, University of Toronto. As an economic geographer and urban planner, her research focuses on the transformation of cities as a result of economic, social, and cultural change.
Sustainable, Community-Oriented Infrastructure
At the community level, townships are designing for more active transportation by creating cycling infrastructure and pedestrian walkways. Roads in Lincoln that were once bordered by ditches and gravel shoulders are being redesigned, where feasible, to accommodate sidewalks and bike lanes, says Bruder. In Jordan Village, his team has looked at closing off Main Street to vehicular traffic altogether, with the vision of turning it into a gathering space for shopping and events.
These proposed changes buy into some of the urban planning trends that cities across Canada are hopping onto. Some places, Brail says, are looking at ways of maximizing high-quality, multi-use public outdoor spaces. Some are looking into the idea of 15-minute neighbourhoods, a type of dense, mixed-use neighbourhood whereby, theoretically, the basic needs of community members are within a 15-minute walk from their homes. Others are planning for micro-mobility, a concept in which forms of transport like electronic bikes and electric scooters are used to commute short distances.
Not every Niagara town or city can accommodate these changes, says Bruder. In places like Lincoln, which have a large rural contingency and isolated urban centres, those changes are a long way off. Yet while the demand for cars and parking in Niagara is high, the region's transportation infrastructure is undergoing several changes. Niagara's local transit systems are being consolidated to make travel between towns and cities easier for Niagarans.[8] The provincial government is bringing back year-round GO Train service to Niagara.[9] The Niagara of the future could, perhaps, see more of these trends incorporated into its urban landscape.
John Henricks, RPP, MCIP with NPG Planning Solutions Inc.
As President and founder of NPG Solutions, John brings a wealth of experience in municipal and land use planning, as well as land development. He has held management positions in the public and private sector of Ontario and Alberta.
[1] https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2022/11/an-immigration-plan-to-grow-the-economy.html
[2] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810000701
[3] https://www.niagararegion.ca/2041/pdf/mcr-pic3-boards.pdf
[4] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-buy-canadian-industrial-properties/
[5] https://normac.ca/trend-watch-ontarios-mixed-use-developments/
[6] https://www.mapc.org/resource-library/what-are-the-benefits-of-mixed-use-development/
[7] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220427/dq220427a-eng.htm
[8] https://www.niagararegion.ca/transit-commission/default.aspx
[9] https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1002260/ontario-bringing-back-year-round-weekend-go-rail-service-to-niagara
Canadian Real Estate: What Potential Investors Need to Know
Fueled by low interest rates and low supply, real estate experienced record-breaking sales as recently as November 2021. Fast-forward to September 2022, the Bank of Canada increased interest rates from 0.25% to 3.25% over seven months to combat runaway inflation leading to a sudden decline in the real estate market. With many potential outcomes reported by economists, realtors, and media outlets, investors must pay attention to the forces shaping the Canadian real estate market.
Inflation & Interest Rates
The Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation (CHMC) has teams of economists and researchers committed to understanding the drivers and obstacles in housing markets. Based on an interest rate of 3.5% in September, the CHMC predicts marginal negative growth in Canada's GDP between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, followed by an economic recovery later in 2023. Although the national average housing prices are expected to decline by 5% by mid-2023, the CHMC anticipates that mortgage rates will stabilize in 2024, supported by rising household income and immigration. Although the national average housing price was down in July 2022 to $629,971 from $662,924 in July 2021, the average national price in March 2020 was $543,920. The Canadian Real Estate Associates (CREA) forecasts that the average home price will increase by 10.8% annually by the end of 2022 to $762,386 and continue to rise through 2023 to hit $786,252. For some Canadians, this may mean they will continue to rent instead of buying property, while for others, it may provide a potential opportunity to buy at lower prices and increase rental income.
Canadian Lifestyle & Migration
The most notable lifestyle change during the pandemic was the shift to work from home. Approximately 1 in 5 Canadians is working remotely. People can relocate to less expensive areas of the country. The inter-provincial migration data released by Statistics Canada shows that more Canadians moved to Alberta than any other province between January and March of 2022, and more than 28000 people have moved to the Atlantic provinces since early 2021. Harshdeep Ghadok of Calgary Prime Properties said, "I am helping more clients coming [to Calgary] from Toronto," and he even has clients moving from the United States[1]. According to RE/MAX Canada, smaller markets, such as Truro, NS, and Carlton Place, ON, anticipate a 25% sales increase by 2022. The MLS System of the Niagara Association of REALTORS (NAR) shows that home sales were 32% lower than the five-year average for the month of August in 2022, but the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) shows that the overall composite benchmark increased by 4.4% to $687,500 in August of 2022 from August of 2021. More active residential listings are on the market at the end of August, jumping 142.4% compared to 2021. Real estate opportunities for investors will pop up depending on where Canadians are moving and why.
It will take 22 million housing units by 2030, combined with several government initiatives and industry changes, to achieve housing affordability for everyone in Canada. Supply for housing will fail to meet the demand for homes in the next 5-6 years and push prices higher. Canadians will likely stay renting longer, and rental vacancy rates will be lower. This situation may be ideal for Canadian investors looking to make rental income. For foreign and commercial real estate investors with higher buying power, the markets to watch for 2022 are Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Calgary, Halifax, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Quebec City, and Saskatoon.
In the July edition of The Housing Observer, CHMC Chief Economist Bob Dugan wrote that Canadians have experienced "...strong economic growth and strong job creation have caused the unemployment rate to drop to an all-time low of 4.9%." Despite the many challenges Canadians face, households have a higher net worth, and the value of real estate held by families is up by 2.3 trillion dollars. Foreign investors may have an advantage over Canadian investors, with favorable currency exchange rates driving lower borrowing needs. However, foreign investors will have to wait two years, effective January 2023, to invest in Canadian real estate according to the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act passed on June 23, 2022. As post-pandemic Canada evolves, investors must watch institutional lending policies, Canadian migration patterns, and the real estate supply chain to discover and take advantage of the right investment opportunities. For those that understand the forces of change in Canadian real estate, there will always be opportunities to invest, sooner or later.
Harshdeep Ghadok
Real Estate Agent at Prep Realty (Calgary Prime Properties)
Known for his work ethic and exceptional service, Harshdeep is a respected real estate agent in Calgary, Alberta.
Sources:https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/ | https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/ | https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220610/dq220610a-eng.htm | https://www.businesscouncilab.com/work/changing-migration-trends-across-canada/ | https://blog.remax.ca/these-small-canadian-real-estate-markets-are-booming/ | https://creastats.crea.ca/board/stca | https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/blog/2022/canadas-housing-supply-shortage-restoring-affordability-2030. | https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/industries/real-estate/emerging-trends-in-real-estate/markets-to-watch.html
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/ | https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/media-newsroom/notices/2022/thoughts-ban-non-canadians-buying-real-estate
Niagara Region Housing: The Supply Crisis Continues
The Niagara region is no stranger to the piping-hot Canadian housing market, experiencing tremendous growth alongside the rest of the nation in recent years. Despite other concerns presented by members of the Niagara community, the 2019 federal election revealed that the main source of worry amongst Niagara residents stems from an immense shortage of housing[i]1.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), only 529 residential properties were listed in January of 2022 by the Niagara Association of REALTORS®­, as opposed to 616 in January of 20212. This statistic alone displays a clear lack of housing availability for Niagara residents, resulting in an obnoxious surge in market pricing by the effect of supply and demand.
Staggering increases have been recorded in recent years; according to statistics from the Niagara Association of REALTORS®­, year-over-year home prices from October 2021 to October 2022 increased by 33.5% in Niagara, for a monetary value of over $170,0003. Prices within Niagara Falls specifically rose slightly higher than the rest of the region with an increase of 34%4.
What's causing the lack of supply?
Many factors have contributed to a lack of available housing in Niagara, with the most impactful due to living preferences of certain demographics. Recent trends studied by CREA have shown that the largest demographic of homeowners remains the baby boomer generation, limited to those born between 1946-19665. The Royal Society of Canada recorded that not only are baby boomers less inclined to leave their family homes, but 50% would rather renovate their current properties to accommodate their living needs than to relocate or move into typical assisted living accommodations6.
President of Niagara Association of REALTORS®, Doug Rempel, stated that "The fact of the matter is, (baby boomers) are equity strong, they are sort of bucking the historic trend and it takes a certain amount of inventory that would otherwise be in the market out of the market"7. This effect of boomer equity being tied-up in real estate endeavours contributes negatively to the problem, as it gives this generation more reason to stay where they are. Considering that baby boomers represent such a large demographic in Niagara's population, this removes a significant amount of inventory from the home-buying pool.
Rempel stated that not only is there lack of supply from occupation by this demographic, but also due to mature equity investors from the Greater Toronto Area who see great opportunity in the Niagara region. Between proximity to Toronto and this area being a previously rather untapped market for investors, they are now, more than ever, inclined to flock for opportunity that has become fewer and further between in the GTA8.
Photo by Darren Clarke
Immense need for housing in Niagara
The intense lack of housing supply in the region, coupled with the impending crisis of unaffordability for most has left the Niagara community with little hope for the near future. This surge in pricing and lack of availability has caused more and more residents to turn to government-funded accommodations provided by Niagara Regional Housing. Dating back to late 2020, demand for this municipally-subsidized resource has increased staggeringly, leaving housing applicants to suffer through a wait-list of up to 18 years9. Wait time is dependent on many factors, with most aged 16-54 years old waiting up to 16 years for affordable housing in Welland or St. Catharine's, up to 18 years in Niagara Falls, and still up to 13 years in Thorold, with similar wait times in other areas10.
Pressure on resources like these continues to increase, with Niagara Regional Housing receiving their largest ever recorded number of applicants last summer, with 7,700 people applying for rent-geared-to-income and low-income accommodations11. Unattainable prices are clearly having a massive effect on residents of the region, forcing them to join an already-large wait list to obtain rent costs that individuals can realistically cover.
Is there an end in sight?
Unfortunately, housing affordability is not expected to improve anytime soon; many experts are already speculating even higher increases throughout the remainder of 2022. Home price averages across Canada are set to increase at least 9.2 percent by the end of the year, meanwhile RE/MAX predicts the increase specifically in the Niagara region to reach 14% in the same period12. Experts believe that the only way prices can stabilize at more affordable levels would be from a significant increase in housing supply.
Need for new development is more serious than ever as Niagara residents wait impatiently for more options to become available. Luckily, local government is responding with $10.5 million dedicated to a new development to house individuals and families facing the possibility of homelessness, or that are currently in precarious living situations13. Projects like this one are so desperately needed to accommodate the overwhelming number of residents without affordable housing in the Niagara region, and hopefully more developers will increase supply soon.
1 Cheevers, Melinda. "Out of Reach: A Look at the Housing Situation in Niagara." wellandtribune.com. Welland Tribune, October 15, 2021 | 2 "Niagara Association of Realtors®." The Canadian Real Estate Association. The Canadian Real Estate Association, 2022. https://creastats.crea.ca/board/stca. | 3 Forsyth, Paul. "Niagara Housing Market Expected to Remain Hot in 2022." thestar.com, December 7, 2021. https://www.thestar.com/local-niagara-falls/business/2021/12/07/niagara-housing-market-expected-to-remain-hot-in-2022.html?itm_source=parsely-api#:~:text=While%20average%20home%20prices%20are,by%20the%20local%20realty%20association. | 4 Ibid. | 5 "Niagara Association of Realtors®." The Canadian Real Estate Association. The Canadian Real Estate Association, 2022. https://creastats.crea.ca/board/stca. | 6 Ibid. | 7 Nicolaou, Victoria. "Baby Boomers Staying Put as Niagara Real Estate Inventory Remains Low." stcatharinesstandard.com, February 7, 2022. https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-region/2022/02/07/baby-boomers-staying-put-as-niagara-real-estate-inventory-continues-to-remain-low.html. | 8 Ibid. | 9 Chandler, Justin. "Inside Niagara's Affordable-Housing Crisis." TVO.org, November 12, 2020. https://www.tvo.org/article/inside-niagaras-affordable-housing-crisis. | 10 Ibid. | 11 Cheevers, Melinda. "Out of Reach: A Look at the Housing Situation in Niagara." wellandtribune.com. Welland Tribune, October 15, 2021 | 12 Forsyth, Paul. "Niagara Housing Market Expected to Remain Hot in 2022." thestar.com, December 7, 2021. https://www.thestar.com/local-niagara-falls/business/2021/12/07/niagara-housing-market-expected-to-remain-hot-in-2022.html?itm_source=parsely-api#:~:text=While%20average%20home%20prices%20are,by%20the%20local%20realty%20association. | 13 CMHC. "Canada Supports Rapid Housing Projects in Niagara Region ." CMHC, January 18, 2022. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/media-newsroom/news-releases/2022/canada-supports-rapid-housing-niagara-region.
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