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This Kevin Smith is not Too Fat to Fly in Week 12 Pickups
Waiver Wire November 22, 2011 JacobLeave a comment
I can't be certain that I covered all of this week's best waiver wire grabs because, to be honest, after Adrian Peterson went down and rode out of the stadium on a cart, I went into shock and then into a hysterical state from which I am only now emerging. Is Twilight still a thing? Should I wait longer before I come back?
No one likes to see their fantasy stud go out on a cart, especially when we're just three weeks away from playoffs. As a Peterson owner, I could only think back to last year when my first-round pick Frank Gore did basically the same thing to my already crippled fantasy team.
Things can get very cruel just before the fantasy playoffs.
It looks like All Day's going to miss at least one game — and hopefully, ONLY one game. But the high ankle sprain shouldn't keep him from helping fantasy teams down the stretch. If you've secured a playoff spot, you should be safe waiting on A.P. If not…well, you might just want to make liberal use of this button and look for better help than Toby Gerhart, who was pretty miserable in place of Peterson on Sunday.
Of course, the title of our waiver wire post this week is in reference to the Silent Bob "Too Fat to Fly" incident, in case you didn't get it. Get out your cave, buddy! Now back to the pickups…
This week's waiver wire is a little different. Rather than run down a full list of all the top grabs, we'll look to fill your needs at each position for the playoffs.
First, if you are in need of a quarterback…
ANDY DALTON (Bengals)
Even without A.J. Green, Dalton's managed to rack up yardage and multiple scores against tough defensive opponents. The schedule gets easier the rest of the way. If your quarterback isn't cutting it, you might trust your playoff production to this rookie, but he'll only help you so much.
MATT MOORE (Dolphins)
Truly risky, Moore has put together several strong performances with the Dolphins finding their groove these last few weeks. His playoff schedule isn't the best, but he has gotten hot at just the right time. If you've started someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick up to this point, Moore may be worth throwing into your lineup, but I'm never going to recommend benching a true stud option for Moore.
If you need a running back…
KEVIN SMITH (Lions)
He doesn't get to face the Panthers every week, but Week 11 was a truly phenomenal performance by "the best story in the NFL." He's clearly the Lions' answer at running back for the playoff push. The Lions are still a pass-first team, but they get down the field enough to give Smith some chances to score on the ground no matter the opponent. Not to mention, Smith has good enough hands to be a part of that mighty Lions passing game. If and when Jahvid Best returns, he will likely share touches with Kevin Smith, who should be this week's first overall on the waiver wire. Don't sit on your waiver pick or FAAB money this week, especially not if you need help at running back. Just like Tebow and Denarius Moore, Smith's worth betting on this late in the season. It's unlikely you'll see another quality starting running back on the waiver wire unless we see some more injuries.
DONALD BROWN (Colts)
Speaking of the Panthers, the Colts face their terrible run defense this week, which means Brown is next in line for a big day running all over them. There's some discussion that Joseph Addai could return this week. I'm not sure that I buy that. Brown's been the most effective Indy running back in Addai's absence, and it would be more beneficial at this point in the season for the Colts to continue to evaluate their young prospects, Brown and Delone Carter, rather than throw Addai back onto the field if he's not completely 100 percent. If Brown gets the start against the Panthers, his ceiling could be something Kevin Smith-like, but it's more likely he gives you a quality one-week fill for Adrian Peterson.
JOE MCKNIGHT (Jets)
Without Shonn Greene, the Jets running game actually looked a bit more dynamic with McKnight leading the way. He's a better pass catcher than Greene and has younger legs than LaDainian Tomlinson. Greene should be back on the field this week, but McKnight should still, at the very least, keep the change-of-pace role until L.T.'s back to full health. I'd still stash McKnight just in case he earns more touches.
TOBY GERHART (Vikings)
If you couldn't tell by how far down this list Toby is, I don't have much faith in him producing while Adrian Peterson's out. Peterson should only miss one or two games, and replacing Peterson in Week 11, Gerhart didn't do much of anything. I also expect Percy Harvin to have a larger role running the ball in A.P.'s absence. The fact that the Vikings face the Falcons run defense in Week 12 makes me even less enthusiastic about Gerhart. If you're a Peterson owner, you need to grab Gerhart just to cover yourself through A.P.'s injury, but if someone wants to outbid you for his services, let them. I wouldn't consider starting Gerhart in Week 12 if I had any better options, but he could be worth the stash if he gets the call again in Week 13 against the Broncos.
C.J. SPILLER (Bills)
The Buffalo offense is just miserable, and the only bright spot has been Fred Jackson. Without him, I don't have much faith that Spiller can get it done, but he would see plenty of work if Jackson sits out Week 12. Moving forward, Spiller could have greater value seeing more time in the slot after the Bills lost Donald Jones on Sunday. He's better catching passes than rushing for now in this Buffalo offense.
If you need a wide receiver…
DENARIUS MOORE (Raiders)
The receiving talent is a little harder to come by, but if your league passed on Moore or his owner gave up on him when he put up a dud on Sunday, go out and get him. The Raiders still have one of the best schedules to pass on, and even though they're a run-first team, Palmer should look Moore's way a few more times this year.
Another one that might still be out there in a few leagues, Cruz looks like Manning's favorite target when he's facing pressure or needs a big play. The Giants will be looking for a few more of those as their schedule continues to get tougher.
PERCY HARVIN (Vikings)
Harvin saw more touches after Peterson's injury and was able to put up almost 100 total yards and a score. More than likely playing from behind against the Falcons in Week 12, the Vikings should look his way often enough to make him a worthy play.
TORREY SMITH (Ravens)
Smith's been a risky start ever since his breakout performance, but he's worth the risk when the matchup fits because his ceiling is so high (165 yards and a score in Week 11). Weaker playoff teams might want to throw him out there in Week 14 against Indy for a spark.
RILEY COOPER (Eagles)
If Vince Young gets another start, he could once again look Cooper's way. They've obviously developed a nice chemistry playing with the second stringers this year, and Cooper filled in admirably for Jeremy Maclin once he got into the swing of things.
JEROME SIMPSON (Bengals)
A.J. Green should be able to go in Week 12, but Simpson's had his fair share of good games even with Green taking the No. 1 role from him. He's a matchup play for the fantasy playoffs.
JABAR GAFFNEY (Redskins)
Rex Grossman was surprisingly competent against the Cowboys in Week 11, which leaves me to speculate that Gaffney will have a few more good games before the year is out, at least until Santana Moss, a worthy stash himself, returns from his injury.
If you need a tight end…
Tight end is deep, but few are rising to the top late in the season. If Kellen Winslow was dropped, he's worth grabbing this week as the Bucs look to get back on track to end the year. Otherwise, look to Brent Celek, Jared Cook, or Jake Ballard, three tight ends who could finish the year stronger than they started it.
If you need a kicker…
Come on, man.
If you need a defense…
TEXANS D/ST
If anyone dropped them during their bye, pick them up immediately. Houston currently has the No. 1 defense in the NFL, and this week, they get the Jaguars. They should continue to put up fantasy points.
PATRIOTS D/ST
New England has one of the easiest schedules in the league after they face the Eagles this weekend, and their defense, for all its injuries, seems like it's coming together. Assuming the pass rush and interceptions continue, Week 12 might be your last chance to score the Patriots D/ST for the stretch run.
PANTHERS D/ST
It's never a bad idea to play the D/ST that faces the Colts, even if they have no run defense to speak of. The Panthers still managed positive points last week while getting blown apart by the Lions.
FALCONS D/ST
Atlanta gets to face the potentially Adrian Peterson-less Vikings this week. It shouldn't be too hard of an assignment for them. Atlanta has a very underrated run defense.
BRONCOS D/ST
Tebowmania has masked how well the Broncos defense has been since Week 9 against Oakland. I have a hard time trusting them, but I love them as a sleeper this week against the interception-prone Philip Rivers, who may have lost another offensive linemen just this past Sunday. If you're short on options, consider taking a chance on Denver.
Any other questions/comments, you know what to do. Leave them in the comments or hit me up on Twitter.
Adrian Peterson, Andy Dalton, Atlanta Falcons, Brent Celek, C.J. Spiller, Carolina Panthers, Delone Carter, Denarius Moore, Denver Broncos, Donald Brown, fantasy football playoffs, Frank Gore, free agents, Houston Texans, Jabar Gaffney, Jake Ballard, Jared Cook, Jerome Simpson, Joe McKnight, Joseph Addai, Kellen Winslow, Kevin Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Matt Moore, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Percy Harvin, pickups, Riley Cooper, Santana Moss, Toby Gerhart, Torrey Smith, Victor Cruz
Week 14 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders: You Know Where This is Going
I thought we'd do things a little differently this week. By this point, I expect that most of you know who you are starting and sitting during these critical weeks of the fantasy playoffs. As such, I don't think you'll need as much help deciding which players to start and sit.
Trust is as important a factor as any, and you have to go with your trustworthy guys.
So rather than give you a few players with good games and a few players with bad games this week, we'd be better served just talking about what you can expect from those studs this week and what chances are worth taking for the playoffs.
For starters, the Fourth & 1 Debate fantasy football roundtable covered a few players who, while under the radar most of the season, could make a big splash in the fantasy playoffs. My pick is San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith, but you'll have to go and read the full debate to see my reasoning. It's good. Promise.
And it's especially good if you need a sub for Peyton Manning in Week 16, when he is likely to sit out the second half, denying you those fantasy points you need in the championship.
Fanhouse lays out a very strategic plan to attack the playoffs, and a nice set of players to help you do so. I agree with most of their adds, but don't jump all over the young guns they recommend. Sure, they look good now, but will they really be trustworthy enough to start? I doubt it. Fantasy Joe's Mike Gilbert doubts waiver wire studs Devin Thomas and Louis Murphy, too.
So if you need the depth or just want to keep them out of the hands of your opponent, go get 'em. Otherwise, keep your most trusted fantasy cogs close at hand and on your roster.
As FF Toolbox points out, Joe Flacco gets the Lions, Mike Wallace may get a chance to start against the Browns tonight (Joy!), and Kevin Boss faces the tight-end-friendly Philadelphia Eagles defense. On the other hand, dark days look to continue for Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. I wouldn't want to trust DeAngelo Williams if he plays this week either after what Michael Turner did to fantasy owners in his first game back (He immediately got hurt again, as if you didn't know).
Fantasy Football Xtreme's Smitty cautions against Kevin Smith and Steven Jackson, and I would agree. As great as Jackson's been on a bad, horrible, terrible, and atrocious St. Louis Rams (did I mention they were bad?), he may hit the wall this week with Kyle Boller at quarterback against the Titans.
Not a lot of surprises from Fantasy Joe in their start or sit recommendations this week. Among the names, Chris Johnson and Ray Rice look poised and ready to do some damage. I'm sure many of their fantasy owners would appreciate it in the first rounds of the playoffs, me included.
Also noted, Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson would seem like good starts if it weren't for Matt Cassel's struggles and Jackson's recent cooling off period. I'd hate to have to rely on them, but you may be forced to start them.
Unlike Fantasy Joe, I'm not as afraid of Donovan McNabb against the Giants. He may be able to put two good games together against them this year, especially if he gets top target DeSean Jackson back this week.
By the way, in one of my leagues, the owner of Chris Johnson didn't make the playoffs… in a 10-team league in which six, and let me say that twice, SIX teams made the cut. Do you realize how bad you have to be to not make the playoffs with Chris Johnson? Bad. So very, very bad. Rams bad.
Davone Bess and Chris Brown are two intriguing names in the sleeper pool. I'd pass on starting them over someone who got you to the playoffs, but they aren't bad flex plays this week. Brown more so than Bess. Fanhouse likes Bess as well.
The FF Geek Blog predicts some struggle for the Land Baron and some promising returns on Jamaal Charles as he goes in against Buffalo, but my favorite note thus far was their take on Antonio Bryant's bad situation this week: "Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers vs NYJ — Darrelle Revis." That pretty much says it all.
In keeping with the theme of starting the guys who got you there, ESPN's rankings look pretty familiar. Fanhouse doesn't stray from the path of the studly either.
If you're current options are a little sketchy, Fantasy Joe recommends trying the Titans and Cardinals defenses over the Steelers this week, but I can't fully support the Cardinals defense as an option when they are facing my pick to be an explosive fantasy force this week, Alex Smith. I'm just glad I have the Saints D/ST to set and forget.
Now, since I know you can't set your rosters without musical accompaniment, I give you your very own "Choose Your Own Adventure" of songs to set your roster to this week.
If you're awesome: Three Days Grace – Animal I Have Become
Rage? Yes. Awesomeness? Completely. Playoff-worthy? Most definitely.
But if you're hurting and little worried about your game this week, I offer the more melodious but still awesome: Kings of Leon – Use Somebody
If only your stud players were still showing up. Will that one waiver wire claim you picked up this week save your team? Alex Smith? Jamaal Charles? Only time will tell. Good luck with that one.
And with that, I leave you to your games this week. Best of luck to those of you in the playoffs, and sorry to hear about those of you who are not. If you have any questions, you know what to do. Hit us up in the comments or get in touch.
Alex Smith, Antonio Bryant, Arizona Cardinals, Brett Favre, Chris Brown, Chris Chambers, Chris Johnson, Darrelle Revis, Davone Bess, DeAngelo Williams, Devin Thomas, Donovan McNabb, fantasy football playoffs, fantasy football roundtable, Fourth and 1 Debate, Jamaal Charles, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Kevin Boss, Kevin Smith, Kyle Boller, Louis Murphy, Matt Cassel, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Mike Wallace, Peyton Manning, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ray Rice, rookies, sits, sleeper, song, Start or Sit, starts, Steven Jackson, Tennessee Titans, Vincent Jackson
On the Wire: Week 4 Pickups and Sleepers [Insert Coffee Joke Here]
Waiver Wire September 29, 2009 Jacob1 Comment
Ah, I just love the sweet smell of bacon in the morning. What? You thought I was going to say coffee, as in Glen Coffee? That would be silly. Silly like little kids who talk like big people.
Now, get your Coffee while it's hot. Burn!
Glen Coffee, RB, San Francisco 49ers: With Frank Gore set to miss about three weeks, Coffee should get most of the work against the Rams and the Falcons before the 49ers go on bye in Week 6. If you're lucky, Coffee could see more work than usual against the Texans and Colts post-bye. I'll take a double shot of that.
Tashard Choice, RB, Dallas Cowboys: He took over the Dallas run game on Monday night. If Felix Jones' knee keeps him from hitting the field in Week 4, Choice could be the lone back for the Cowboys until Marion Barber returns, and he can handle that job. Dallas faces Denver and Kansas City before their bye in Week 6.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts: The French name with another the solid game, Garcon has stepped it up in Anthony Gonzalez's absence. Peyton Manning trusts him, and until Gonzalez returns, you can, too.
Nate Burleson, WR, Seattle Seahawks: Burleson has been posting decent stats while T.J. Houshmandzadeh runs his mouth and fails to impress with his bad back. Maybe T.J., as I've felt all along, is just average. Burleson's worth a look as a WR3 even without Hasselbeck under center.
Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles: He's getting plenty of looks in this offense, especially with Kevin Kolb doing the passing.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers: Two touchdowns? Now that's almost enough to convince me that he'll stick around. Incubate him for a game or two unless you're desperate at tight end and see what develops. Unlike many of the most targeted players this week, Davis came down with the majority of the passes thrown his way. That's promising.
Fred Taylor, RB, New England Patriots: Brady was saved by his ground game in this one, and Taylor is that ground game. He's got plenty left in the tank, but just when we start to trust him, the Patriots will mix in someone else out of that backfield and throw the ball 60-plus times each game. Taylor adds good depth as we head into the bye weeks.
Correll Buckhalter, RB, Denver Broncos: He's fighting every week to get his yards even if Knowshon Moreno keeps the hype and the goal line touches.
Maurice Morris, RB, Detroit Lions: We might see more Morris if Kevin Smith misses time with his injury. Smith can't heal that fast, but don't expect the same production you get from Smith out of Morris.
Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams: Maybe without competition from Laurent Robinson, who is now out for the season, Avery will finally step his game up. He'd probably have better luck if Kyle Boller takes over at quarterback.
Josh Johnson, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: As we've seen from the Byron Leftwich appearances this season, the Bucs are bad, and they are going to be throwing often. Johnson has the potential to be better than Leftwich, and he's certainly faster and more agile. I broke down some of his background in this week's Foolish Thoughts. If you're desperate or digging for trade bait, grab him while he's an unknown.
Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins: Same first name, different starting Miami quarterback. Sadly, this injury may be the end for Pennington. Due to Pennington's bionic shoulder capsule explosion in the game this week, Henne takes over a tad early and tries to right this Dolphin ship in 2009. Please, sir, may we have a deep ball?
Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns: I wouldn't suggest that he's better than your current benched players, but if Jamal Lewis stays out, Harrison could be in line for a big game or two when Cleveland faces weak run defenses. There aren't many of those on the schedule, but maybe you just have a bench spot that's completely empty and in need of a warm body. Yeah, you can slot Harrison there.
Denver Broncos D/ST: Who knew? The Broncos have a defense. Leave it to Josh McDaniels to teach them how to repel people. I'm still not sure I believe.
Sidney Rice, WR, Minnesota Vikings: Maybe he will break out after all? Only if Favre keeps passing like he did on Sunday, but I'm a fan of Rice's potential.
Bryant Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions: It was Bryant, not Calvin Johnson, that had the important touchdown catch against the Washington Redskins this week. If Megatron gets shut down, look for Bryant to reap the benefits. He's been on my watch list since he left the Arizona Cardinals, but he's never produced consistently. This year may finally be his time if he can stay healthy.
Guys from Week 3's On the Wire that should be owned in all leagues by now (but I'll list them here anyway just to drive home the point):
LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: Without Westbrook, he's just as good and maybe even more explosive.
Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: He is David Garrard's favorite target, and the Jags are going to put the ball in the air this season.
For more waiver wire grabs, talk to the geeks at The Fantasy Football Geek Blog, get the list from Fanhouse, sweat it out with Lester's Legends, get the pickups of the week at FF Toolbox, add Coffee to your list at USA Today's Fantasy Joe, see through the haze at The Hazean, and check out both the first and second collection from Fantasy Football Librarian this week.
Get out there and make your team better this week. Try toying with some handcuffs and consider the rises and falls of Sunday at Fanhouse, prepare for the bye weeks as noted by The Fantasy Football Geek Blog , sell off a few high-performing pretenders at FF Toolbox and cut the dead weight with the Bruno Boys.
As always, the comments are yours. I'll be answering questions all week if you don't know who to claim and who to drop on your waiver wire. Just leave a message below.
Manning, Colts D on Fire as Cards Misfire
Anthony Gonzalez, bacon, Brent Celek, Bryant Johnson, Byron Leftwich, Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, Correll Buckhalter, Denver Broncos, Donnie Avery, drops, Felix Jones, Frank Gore, Fred Taylor, free agents, Glen Coffee, Jamal Lewis, Jerome Harrison, Josh Johnson, Kevin Kolb, Kevin Smith, Knowshon Moreno, Kyle Boller, Laurent Robinson, LeSean McCoy, Marc Bulger, Marion Barber, Matt Hasselbeck, Maurice Morris, Mike Sims-Walker, Mike Walker, Nate Burleson, Peyton Manning, pickups, Pierre Garcon, Sidney Rice, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Tashard Choice, Vernon Davis
A Fool and His Money – Week 1
Best Bets September 12, 2009 Nick3 Comments
Week 1 is my favorite week to make bets. You get to trust your gut more than any other week of the season, and you feel extremely smug when your predictions come true.
But the first games are also full of questions. Which teams developed chemistry over the offseason? Who will exceed expectations, and who will disappoint? There is money to be made if you can answer these questions correctly.
STEELERS (-6) over Titans
Will the Titans' defense be the same without Albert Haynesworth? I have no qualms with the Titans' defense, but I do have problems with trusting Kerry Collins. I predict Vince Young will get his chance for redemption at some point in the season.
Cowboys (-6) over BUCS
Are the Cowboys serious NFC contenders this year? They need to stomp teams like Tampa Bay if they are.
Lions (+13) over SAINTS
Did Kevin Smith really guarantee the playoffs this year? Even Lions' players and fans can be optimistic this time of year.
FALCONS (-4) over Dolphins
Which one of these teams will take a step back this year? My vote is for the one that loses this game.
TEXANS (-4.5) over Jets
Have you met Mario Williams yet? Rookie QB Mark Sanchez is about to meet him for first time. This is the year the Texans need to finish over .500. People have been talking about this team for a couple of seasons — now show us something!
BENGALS (-4) over Broncos
Does anybody know what to expect from either of these teams? I think the Bengals have more potential so I'm going with them.
PANTHERS (+1.5) over Eagles
Why isn't anyone talking about the Panthers this year? They had the best fantasy player in the game last year and the best record in the NFC.
Jags (+7) over COLTS
Has any team been more consistent this past decade? No Bob Sanders or Marvin Harrison this season. I like the Colts to win, but seven points is just too much for me.
Vikings (-4) over BROWNS
Is Brady Quinn still a loser? The answer is always yes. This line seems suspiciously low to me, but I'm going to take the bait and pick the Vikings.
Chiefs (+13) over RAVENS
Who can turn down 13 points? Not me — at least not during the first week when we still have a lot to learn about teams.
Redskins (+6.5) over GIANTS
Is this Jason Campbell's last chance? If he doesn't step up this year, I think it's time for the Redskins to start looking in a different direction.
SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Rams
Was last year a fluke? Everyone knows these teams were decimated by injuries last year, but we need to see who will bounce back quicker. I personally expect an NFC West division title for the Seahawks.
49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS
Who doesn't love Mike Singletary? From his future Coors Light commercial quotes to his obsession with hills, I want to believe the 49ers can take a step forward this year.
PACKERS (-3.5) over Bears
Do you believe the hype? A lot of people are very high on both these teams in the NFC. I don't forget which players and teams wronged me last year, and Jay Cutler is at the top of that list. I bet he hangs out with Brady Quinn in the offseason.
PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Bills
Is Brady back? Normally, I don't like giving double-digit points in the first week, but I believe the Patriots will try and turn this into a statement game by running up the score.
Chargers (-9) over RAIDERS
Could anything the Raiders do surprise you at this point? Stupid draft picks, violent head coaches, dumb trades. I wish I could bet the over on L.T. getting more than 30 fantasy points this week.
Nick: 0-0-0
Albert Haynesworth, Atlanta Falcons, bets, betting, Bob Sanders, Brady Quinn, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, gambling, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Kansas City Chiefs, Kevin Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mario Williams, Mark Sanchez, Marvin Harrison, Miami Dolphins, Mike Singletary, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, spreads, Tennessee Titans, Tom Brady
First Round Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for 2009
Draft Strategy August 21, 2009 Jacob7 Comments
You know that tough feeling when your heart is telling you one thing, but your mind is telling you something completely different?
It's not love…or the cheese fries. It's the first round of your fantasy football draft. Easily confused, for sure, but very, very different.
The first round is a Wild West again this season with no locked-in picks in the first round. Many consider Adrian Peterson the consensus first overall pick or the safest option at the top of the draft, but rebels out there will tell you that they prefer Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner or even Tom Brady, if they dare.
Just because A.P. is rated first overall, that doesn't mean you have to draft him. Depending on the scoring rules, I might not. He's just not my favorite guy.
In the first round, you should consider drafting a running back, a wide receiver or a quarterback — draft a kicker and someone will smack you — and there's a strategy to taking each position.
Drafting a Running Back in the First Round
It's not that it's out of style to draft a running back. It's just that it loses its shiny appeal after the first three to four picks are off the board. Once Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner and Matt Forte are off the board, the running back ranks get muddy.
Draft LaDainian Tomlinson? No, thanks. Steven Jackson? Yeah, but no. Kill me now.
The conventional wisdom is that taking a running back in the first round is the safest option and most valuable pick since true No. 1 running backs and running back depth is hard to come by in fantasy drafts, but much like 2008, this season offers up plenty of running back by committees, or RBBCs, which will do just fine for my fantasy purposes.
Even in the third round of a 12-team league, you're still able to find quite a few running backs worth starting, and that allows you to have some freedom in the first round. Marion Barber (ADP: 3.01), Ryan Grant (ADP: 3.08) and Kevin Smith (ADP: 3.10), all third round picks according to Fantasy Football Calculator's average draft positions, aren't terrible options. They were close to first-round consideration if they weren't drafted in the first round just last year.
If you have one of the top four to five picks in the draft, taking a dominant runner is a valid option — and probably your best strategy — but with backs like Frank Gore (ADP: 2.o2) and Clinton Ports (ADP: 2.11) still available in the second round, don't force it.
Drafting a Quarterback in the First Round
You may be tempted by Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, especially if you play in a league that awards six points for passing touchdowns, but don't draft a quarterback in the first round just because they score the most points each week.
It was a hot trend last season, but the fantasy football community cooled off after Tom Brady made owners pay by going down in the first quarter of his first game. So much pain to think about…let's move on…
By the nature of starting lineups, most leagues only require 24 quarterbacks to be drafted (12 starters, 12 backups), and only 12 of those players start each week unless you're in a two-quarterback league.
Only starting one, there's better value to be had waiting on your gunslinger. The signal callers of the fourth and fifth round aren't far behind the first-round prospects and could always rise, much like Philip Rivers did last season, up to their level if you're lucky.
Drew Brees and Tom Brady are great and all, but I'd rather take Tony Romo (ADP: 5.09) or Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 4.01) and have three or four stud running backs or wide receivers on my roster.
Current average draft positions show Brees (ADP: 2.03) and Brady (ADP: 2.03) finding their way back into the second round, and Peyton Manning (ADP: 3.03) might still be around in the third at a great bargain price.
If you find yourself at the tail end of the first round, you can consider drafting a quarterback, but I think the odds are in your favor if you wait on even the elite to fall into the second or third rounds. Some say taking a quarterback in the first three rounds is a waste. My sweet spot for quarterback value is the fourth and fifth rounds this season.
Drafting a Wide Receiver in the First Round
It's hard to argue with Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry's assessment that there are only seven top receivers to go around this season.
Some have more upside than others, but seriously, the difference between No. 8 on the list of wide receiver scoring leaders from last year (Antonio Bryant, 157 points) and No. 30 (DeSean Jackson, 110 points) works out to fewer than three points a game. So if everyone in a 10-team league started three receivers every week, outside of the elite, you're basically getting a three-point advantage starting the best non-elite guy over the guy that's barely better than waiver-wire fodder.
That stings when you put it that way, but it is so true. Receiver is the wise way to go with your first round pick this year if you miss out on the elite running backs. With questions surrounding a few of the top seven like Roddy White, Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson, there are even less sure-thing elite receivers to go around.
Taking a receiver in the first round may ruin a few of your fantasy diehards' lunches, but the drop off from the late first-round backs to the second-round or even third-round backs is not as significant as the drop off from first-round receivers to second-round receivers. Not to mention, there is a wealth of talent at running back in the middle and late picks of the draft, especially if you like sleepers.
If I draft top receiver in the first round and more elite wideouts are available in the second, I might even draft another one. You can't stop me!
The stats are there to show it's the more valuable pick late in the first round. As long as you draft intelligently, the fifth round running backs should be there to save you.
So go crazy, got it? Now you just have to choose a draft strategy for the rest of your draft.
2009 draft, Aaron Rodgers, ADP, Adrian Peterson, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Antonio Bryant, average draft position, Calvin Johnson, Clinton Portis, DeSean Jackson, draft prep, Drew Brees, fantasy football draft, fantasy football draft strategy, Frank Gore, Kevin Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Peyton Manning, quarterback, Randy Moss, RBBC, Roddy White, running back, Ryan Grant, Steve Smith (CAR), Steven Jackson, stud, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, wide receiver
Fantasy Draft Day Pick or Pass: Top 24 Running Backs by ADP
Draft Strategy, Player Rankings July 17, 2009 Jacob20 Comments
Many a fantasy football site will give you rankings. Most of the time, that's enough for you to make your decisions when drafting a fantasy team, but I like to add a little depth to my rankings by incorporating the "players to avoid" tag.
You see, not every player is desirable, even if they are the No. 5-ranked running back on the board. Some bad situations may not compel experts to rank a player lower, and at times, there's no logical reason behind disliking a player other than that icky feeling you get when he's the next player in your rankings. Regardless, we still have every right to avoid a guy in the draft.
If I had only listened to that inner "pick or pass" feeling when it came time for me to make my first round selection in 2007, I might have never taken Larry Johnson with a mid-first-round pick … and that would have made all the difference.
For this first addition of "pick or pass," I gathered the top 24 running backs ranked by average draft position (ADP) over at Fantasy Football Calculator to break down. The rankings were current as of July 15, 2009. If you have any more reservations about players that I don't touch on here or just find yourself wanting to share your agreement, please tell me about your concerns and tips in the comments.
Pick or Pass: Top 24 Running Backs as Drafted in Mock Drafts
1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – ADP: 1.01 – PICK
So what if he is the unanimous No. 1 running back? Some guys still don't love him first overall. No one says you have to take him — even if you league boos (and they will). Despite my personal distrust of Peterson, I would "pick" Peterson at the No. 1 because of his explosive potential and the huge tradebait he becomes if you want to do a little preseason maneuvering before the first game of the season. You can't go wrong with the player everyone expects to be the best, right?
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: 1.03 – PICK
Everybody loves the bowling-ball receiving back from the Jacksonville Jaguars. While I dislike him here at the No. 2 spot, he's still a "pick" for me somewhere in the top five. Unless the offensive line pulls another Humpty Dumpty routine, Jones-Drew should have all the chances in the world to put up RB1-worthy stats. Then again, if you're not a Jacksonville fan … you may hold off on Jones-Drew at the No. 2 because we all know he'll still share the rock with Greg Jones this season, even if it's not as much as he shared it with Fred Taylor.
3. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – ADP: 1.03 – PICK
He's just barely a "pick" because he's such a safe choice. Yes, his schedule is tougher. Yes, he ran many, many times last season. Yes, his quarterback's other weapons are improved this season, but look again at how many chances Michael Turner had near the goal line last year. Turner can only benefit from more movement up and down the field, so don't be afraid to pull the trigger on him anywhere in the top five.
4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears – ADP: 1.04 – PICK
The little rookie back that could last season, Forte was the definition of consistent. If he didn't get a touchdown, he got 100+ yards — and he always got 100+ yards. Jay Cutler under center should shake things up, but much like Turner, making the weapons more dangerous only makes me like Forte more. He's a "pick" anywhere in the top five as well.
5. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – ADP: 1.06 – PASS
Ah, the first "pass" of the running back class rears its ugly head at No. 5. Steven Jackson is one of the most talented backs in the league, and the Rams plan to make him a workhorse this season. Still, I'm just not feeling his health and the team play in St. Louis. The Rams have very little receiver talent, a banged-up veteran at quarterback in Bulger and not much to make opposing defenses look at anyone but … you guessed it … Jackson. He may get plenty of carries and quite a few yards, but I'll "pass."
6. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – ADP: 1.08 – PASS
Sermons have been written on why LaDainian Tomlinson faded last season and how much you need to believe in him this year, but they're all blasphemy, my friend. If it looks like the end of his career and it talks like the end of his career, it's probably a duck … and perhaps I missed something in the argument I was trying to make there. Here's the point: he's aging, Darren Sproles is franchise-tagged and looking to impress his way out of San Diego and the Chargers window for a Super Bowl victory is closing faster than Tom Brady can buy new flower boxes. If L.T. stays healthy for the entire season, he's likely to put up numbers close to his old averages, but this high in the draft, I'd still "pass."
7. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – ADP: 1.08 – PICK
The reason you'd pass on a guy like Steven Jackson or L.T. is right here at No. 7. Chris Johnson has the speed to burn you, and the team to grind you into the ground. I'm not scared of LenDale White unless I'm covered in donut glaze. Johnson is just the kind of young running back in a run-oriented offense that I would want to lead me into battle each week — fantasy battle, that is. I'd pick him before Jackson, L.T. or DeAngelo Williams.
8. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers – ADP: 1.11 – PASS
"Pass, pass, pass." I went into more detail about how painful DeAngelo's second season as a starter could be when I compared him to Michael Turner in Truth or Fiction. Here's the short version: a better Jonathan Stewart means fewer carries to go around, a tougher schedule means it'll be more difficult to score touchdowns and a weaker offensive line means less holes to run through. I'll "pass" on Williams this season because he's just not worth the risk.
9. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – ADP: 1.11 – PICK
Slaton had a solid amount of carries close to the red zone just as Michael Turner did last season, but Slaton was basically the only running back left standing in Houston for most of the season. With bigger backs like Chris Brown and the new guy, Jeremiah Johnson, around, he may lose those touches, but he won't lose that speed that kept him on the field last season. Slaton was one of the best surprises of 2008, and I'd "pick" him again in 2009.
10. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – ADP: 2.01 – PICK
It's all a bit of a toss up when it comes to the 49ers. All those words from the coaches about a running-based offense is great, but I want to make sure they're actually going to put points on the board this season. Gore should tote the rock without too much sharing, and unlike the Rams and Steven Jackson, the 49ers should have enough other weapons to make Gore productive. I'd "pick" him.
11. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 2.04 – PASS
Westy's been an injury concern for several seasons, but this year, I might actually count that against him. His offseason surgeries and the addition of LeSean McCoy are just enough to make me want to hold off on him this year. I'd take him as a mid-range RB2, but I'll "pass" here with bigger fish still left in the sea.
12. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants – ADP: 2.05 – PICK
If the word "pick" could sound more intimidating and bulky, I would use it here. Jacobs is a quality pick for the second round. Without Derrick Ward, he should have more yardage than he did last season. Regardless, we know he scores touchdowns. Without Plaxico Burress, one can only hope that the Giants forget how to do anything but run this season.
13. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins – ADP: 2.07 – PICK
Portis took his shots last season and still came out on the other side. I'm not exactly sure how he managed to play through all his injuries, but the man is consistent — one of the most consistent at his position over the years. I like him a tad less this season just because of his workload, even though I don't think that it will slow his productivity. What does concern me is the team around him coming into this season. Jason Campbell is in his "make or break" year in Washington after all the trade talks this offseason, and there's talk of Colt Brennan getting a shot before season's end if Campbell can't prove his worth. That spells a hard year for Portis, and it's just enough to tempt me to take Barber instead. Portis still deserves a "pick."
14. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 2.11 – PICK
The touchdown machine in Dallas runs only for this man. Barber could be in line for more this season if the Cowboys move towards a more run-focused attack. Even if they don't, the running game has always made Barber productive. Normally a first round back in the parts where I draft (Texas), I see no reason not to make him a "pick."
15. Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins – ADP: 3.04 – PASS
For being the quarterback in the Wildcat and the "starting" running back for Miami, I expected more from Ronnie Brown last season. By the end of 2008, he was practically worthless. Ricky Williams is still around to demand some carries, and now there is talk of letting Patrick Cobbs get more touches. I just don't feel Brown here in the second/third round. I like my starting two running backs to be dependable. Sorry, Brown, I'll "pass."
16. Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 3.06 – PICK
I'm surprised to see Thomas trending this high in ADP since most rankings project him as a fourth-round acquisition. He's a quality running back and deserving of the ranking … but really? No. 16 at running back? With the scoreboard the Saints put together and the struggles of Reggie Bush, I don't expect Thomas to disappoint. He'll be worth this "pick."
17. Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – ADP: 3.09 – PICK
Oh, how low the mighty have fallen. Grant was thought of as a top-10 with upside that could make him a top-five last season. Then injury struck. Grant's still high on my list, and I'll give him credit for finishing strong in 2008. I'll "pick" him here and consider him better than the likes of Ronnie Brown.
18. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – ADP: 3.11 – PASS
This is it! This is Kevin's year to carry the rock. Can't you hear the screams right this moment? If Matthew Stafford gets the nod, the Lions are definitely going to be running the ball this season, but I haven't become a Smith believer just yet. That doesn't mean he won't blow up this year, but it does mean I'm willing to take my chances elsewhere. The move to a new style of running offense, away from what Smith is used to, doesn't make me feel good about his chances this season. "Pass."
19. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – ADP: 4.05 – PICK
Suspension or not, Lynch is one of the grinding backs in this league. No. 19 is still a little rich for my tastes with those games missed at the beginning of the season, and Fred Jackson has a great deal more upward mobility as the guy who will start those games and contribute all season. But Lynch is the guy in Buffalo, and with an improved offensive attack — even if their O-line has taken a step back — he's worthy of a "pick."
20. Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 4.06 – PASS
He's a better receiver than a running back, so unless you have a sucker who would trade you a real gem in a package for this circus show, I'd "pass" outside of PPR leagues. I am not convinced he can stay healthy enough to fill the role of a running back, and as a gimmick player, his value is limited. But if he falls into a bargain round, I can't say I would still refuse him.
21. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos – ADP: 4.10 – PASS
I'm not a believer in the new Denver coach, and I'm not a fan of rookie running backs when they are accompanied by a real pack — and I do mean "pack" — of veterans. Even if Moreno wins the starting job, how much of it will he win? I'd rather take the "wait and see" approach with KnowMo. (Does anyone call him "KnowMo" now? Because I really want to now … I won't pick him "KnowMo.")
22. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – ADP: 4.12 – PICK
He didn't get his shot last season with all the injury trouble and that dastardly Justin Fargas, but with a season under his belt, I'd "pick" him to earn his place among the high-performing rookies from last season. No one likes to fall behind, and McFadden has plenty of ground to make up.
23. Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 5.02 – PICK
All alone in Tampa Bay with no "Earth" or "Fire" for his "Wind," Ward should have plenty of opportunities to show why the Giants used him as much as they did last season. Ward is a "pick," even if he ends up getting a "change of pace" tag and yields red zone chances to Earnest Graham. He'll earn his time just like he did with Brandon Jacobs.
24. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 5.03 – PICK
From top-five to No. 24? Even with rookie Donald Brown breathing down his neck, I have no fear in taking Addai in the third round and beyond. The Colts' offensive line was pretty terrible last season without Jeff Saturday. A healthy Peyton and a healthy Saturday make for a good Sunday for Addai. He's a "pick" in my book.
Agree with my picks and passes or disagree? The comments are yours.
2009 draft, ADP, Adrian Peterson, average draft position, Brandon Jacobs, Brian Westbrook, Chris Brown, Chris Johnson, Clinton Portis, Colt Brennan, Darren McFadden, DeAngelo Williams, Derrick Ward, Donald Brown, draft prep, Earnest Graham, fantasy football draft, fantasy football draft strategy, Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, Fred Taylor, Greg Jones, Jason Campbell, Jeremiah Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Joseph Addai, Justin Fargas, Kevin Smith, Knowshon Moreno, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, LenDale White, LeSean McCoy, Marion Barber, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Matthew Stafford, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Patrick Cobbs, pick or pass, Pierre Thomas, RB, Reggie Bush, Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, running back, Ryan Grant, Steve Slaton, Steven Jackson
On the Wire: Week 11 Pickups and Waiver Wire Veterans from Week 10
By now, your season may be over, but there's no reason to start cutting players like the Raiders unless they are still underperforming. Now is the time to grab up all those players the teams that beat up on you want to cripple them for their playoff run! That's right. Bitterness breeds competition.
Of course, if you are in a keeper or dynasty league, you should be a little more responsible, but for the re-drafters out there, let the bitter waves of hate flow.
Here's a few guys that might help you in the playoffs or help you assist you in hoarding talent from your worthy adversaries.
Tyler Thigpen, QB Kansas City Chiefs — Of all the backup quarterbacks starting this season, Thiggy might be the best of the bunch. He's worth mentioning again. He has six touchdowns and 710 yards in his last three starts, and the Chiefs are running a large majority of plays from the shotgun. Is this still a running team?
Brady Quinn, QB Cleveland Browns — I've also mentioned Quinn previously, but if you passed on him in his first start, he proved himself with two touchdowns and no turnovers in his first start last Thursday. I don't think he'll win games for you down the stretch with a touch Week 13-15 schedule, but his efficient passing should beef up Kellen Winslow's stats and keep him in the middle of the road as a fantasy quarterback.
Shaun Hill, QB San Francisco 49ers — To prevent you from having to go back to last week's "On the Wire," we'll just complete the trifecta of quarterback options after Week 10. Hill had two touchdowns, a pair of interceptions, a fumble and 217 passing yards in this debut, but his turnovers were not as bad as they seem. His two interceptions came when the Arizona defense intensified in fourth quarter at home, and the fumble was caused by a bad snap that was knocked loose by a bumbling guard behind the line. His ability to avoid sacks and make plays will keep him fantasy-worthy in the upcoming games in which the 49ers will have to pass to stay competitive.
Ladell Betts, Shaun Alexander and Rock Cartwright, RB Washington Redskins — Don't hate me now if you didn't trade away Portis when I suggested he was an injury risk. It sounds like Clinton Portis has a painful MCL tear that is preventing him from even straightening his leg, so expect him to be limited or out against the Cowboys. Betts would be the favorite to fill in for Port, but he's been banged up as well and might not be good enough to return despite what Jim Zorn is saying. If that were the case, Shaun Alexander and Rock Cartwright would probably share the carries. If you're a Portis owner, I'd snag Betts just to be cautious moving forward.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB New England Patriots — "Law Firm" has overtaken the power back role in Sammy Morris' absence with 100+ yards and a score in Week 10, and even with LaMont Jordan threatening to return, I see him having some flex value until Morris is ready to get back on the field. Add him if you need depth at running back, but you might not start him until fantasy playoffs (Jets, Dolphins, Steelers in next three weeks).
Justin Fargas and Michael Bush, RB Oakland Raiders — So Fargas is not completely dead, but the Raiders failing offense is going to limit his ceiling. He had 80+ yards in a garbage game against Carolina. Michael Bush has about the same value as the No. 2 back and getting about the same amount of yardage. Both of them make decent flex plays or low-end No. 2 options against weaker run defenses until Darren McFadden returns from injury.
Mark Bradley, WR Kansas City Chiefs — Riding the Thigpen train to success, we can safely say that Bradley is a legitimate No. 2 receiver beside Dwayne Bowe. He had nine catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers this past week. He may be the third read behind Bowe and Tony Gonzalez, but he has a touchdown in each of his last three games, even if he did throw one of them. The schedule looking forward makes him very claim-worthy (Saints, Bills, Raiders, Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins).
Peyton Hillis and Tatum Bell, RB Denver Broncos — If you were, heaven forbid, starting a Denver running back, these two are the flavors of the week. Bell has just been signed but knows the system, and Hillis had 24 yards after Ryan Torain was injured Thursday night. No one knows how ol' leather-faced Shanahan is going to handle this one, but I'd rather have Hillis than Bell at the moment because of his versatility.
Cadillac Williams, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — The Bucs are excited about Williams' return, and they should be. Both Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn are still licking wounds. If you can afford the bench room to hold on to him for this week against the Vikings, Williams is worth claiming to see how he factors into the Bucs' running game. Only a Week 14 Panthers matchup stands in the way of a return to fantasy relevance in the final games of this season. (Note for the fantasy n00bs: "Cadillac" is also known as Carnell Williams.)
Kevin Boss, TE New York Giants — A touchdown in each of his last three games is enough for me to be sold on the Shockey filler. Boss should have even had two touchdowns if he had caught the ball. Obviously, Manning is looking for him in the red zone, so you should, too.
Matt Spaeth, TE Pittsburgh Steelers — He's merely a fill for an injured Heath Miller, but the Steelers haven't been putting enough emphasis on utilizing the tight end position this season. This week gives him some added value as the Steelers face the tight-end-friendly Chargers, but I only endorse him as a one-week play or a sleeper grab.
Dustin Keller, TE New York Jets — Keller was hot to start the season and then fell off the map. If you held on to him, he finally had his biggest game of the season with six catches, 100+ yards and a score. We know how Brett Favre likes to use the tight ends, so a hot streak after this game wouldn't surprise me.
Guys you probably should have already picked up:
Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta Falcons — He's doing well in just his first year and has a great schedule for passing to end the season.
Kevin Smith, RB Detroit Lions — Despite Rudi Johnson's brief interruption, Kevin Smith is still the back you want from Detroit, even if the schedule is garbage for rushing until the fantasy playoffs. He collected 96 yards and a score against the Jaguars.
Ricky Williams, RB Miami Dolphins — Williams was actually the better back with 100+ yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, but most of his yardage came off one big play run out of the Wildcat formation with Ronnie Brown. He'll continue to see his fair share of looks in the easy matchups to come.
Dominic Rhodes, RB Indianapolis Colts — It appears that the Colts will continue to give Rhodes carries even with Joseph Addai in the lineup. He's got some depth and flex value with the easy running matchups left on the Colts schedule. If it's true that Addai reaggravated his injury, Rhodes could be huge in the coming weeks.
Lance Moore, WR New Orleans Saints — The third-year receiver continues to catches even with the return of Marques Colston and had 76 yards and a score against Atlanta this past week.
Malcom Floyd, WR San Diego Chargers — The backup that won't go away! Floyd has had his days while Chris Chambers is out with injury. If Chambers remains out, he could be a favorite long-ball target for Philip Rivers (after the pass-hating Steelers this week, of course).
Josh Morgan, WR San Francisco 49ers — He got his second touchdown and some job security Monday night and is likely to see a lot of looks come his way as the 49ers enter a favorable passing schedule.
Kerry Collins, QB Tennessee Titans — The Titans' strength is in the running game, but they proved that they could throw the ball as well with Collins in Week 10. If teams can stop the run like the Bears did, Collins is capable of having fantasy-worthy stats, and it's likely that will happen against the Jets and possibly the Jags in the next two weeks. I'd rather have someone more dependable like Thigpen or Shaun Hill though.
Justin Gage and Brandon Jones, WR Tennessee Titans — Jones and Gage are completely dependent upon Collins, but they could be worth desperation grabs if you have no depth at wide receiver. Gage is the more reliable option, but Bo Scaife, as a tight end, still gets most of the receptions on this team.
Jason Hill, WR San Francisco 49ers — When backup quarterbacks get promoted to the starting squad, they don't forget the second-string receivers they worked out with at the beginning of the year. Enter Jason Hill, who had seven catches for 84 yards on Monday night against the Cardinals and came just short of a touchdown. He's more of a possession guy, but he's definitely got chemistry with the new quarterback.
Mark Clayton, WR Baltimore Ravens — If Derrick Mason missed time, Clayton could step up into his shoes as a productive receiver for Joe Flacco.
Jerry Porter, WR Jacksonville Jaguars — Porter has his first touchdown in Week 10 and could stand to gain when Matt Jones is suspended, but is that every going to happen? He'll have to prove he's coming along in this offense in future weeks to be worthy of an add.
Shaun McDonald, WR Detroit Lions — McDonald inherited the starting role opposite Calvin Johnson when Roy Williams was traded, but it's hard to do much with it without a reliable quarterback. He's had his ups and downs. If the Lions get the passing game in order, McDonald could see more action since we know the Lions will be behind in the tough matchups to come.
Todd Heap, TE Baltimore Ravens — His two touchdowns both came in the fourth quarter of a blowout, and one even came from the backup quarterback, Troy Smith. I don't rely on a guy like Heap unless he shows consistency, and this game was the only fantasy-worthy one he's had all season. Do it again, you heap of…
Droppables
Don't flush all your talent, but if you're looking to trim the fat on your team, these guys might not be waiting on for you. Of course, you can always run drops by me in the comments if you can't make the call between a new waiver wire gem and your current benchwarmer.
Jeremy Shockey, TE New Orleans Saints — Brees is not relying on Shockey when they need a play as long as Billy Miller is around, and Shockey doesn't even look like the best tight end of his team. He can't stay healthy, and unless you have no need at any other position, I wouldn't even carry him as a backup tight end at this point.
Felix Jones, RB Dallas Cowboys — He's about to return from his hamstring injury, but he's also one of those players who relies on the big play to produce in fantasy. If you have managed without him, I doubt you'll need him with only two more starts that look promising (49ers, Seahawks).
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Brady Quinn, Brandon Jones, Cadillac Williams, Dominic Rhodes, drops, Dustin Keller, Felix Jones, Jason Hill, Jeremy Shockey, Jerry Porter, Josh Morgan, Justin Fargas, Justin Gage, Kerry Collins, Kevin Boss, Kevin Smith, Ladell Betts, Lance Moore, Malcom Floyd, Mark Bradley, Mark Clayton, Matt Ryan, Matt Spaeth, Michael Bush, Peyton Hillis, pickups, Ricky Williams, Rock Cartwright, Shaun Alexander, Shaun Hill, Shaun McDonald, Tatum Bell, Todd Heap, Tyler Thigpen
Foolish Thoughts on Week 9: Cowboys in trouble, Raiders miss Kiffin and every bad start has his day
Culture November 3, 2008 JacobLeave a comment
Foolish Thoughts is the weekly column of Jacob Sloan, Fantasy Football Fools' editor-in-chief, that recaps significant news, notes and performances from the weekend of fantasy football and what it all means for fantasy owners. Foolish Thoughts goes live on Tuesdays at FantasyFootballFools.com and is now available with half the fat.
A Cowboys fan lives above me.
I know this because every interception the Cowboys QB-of-the-moment threw and even T.O.'s fumble was followed by a very angry stomping and a firm bang on a table. My digital TV signal on the game must have been just behind his broadcast, and it provided just a bit of companionship while I watched the Giants trounce my homeboys on Sunday.
It was almost better knowing to look away every time I heard the banging begin.
The Cowboys are just bad right now, but if you own a piece of the Dallas fantasy powerhouse, don't go trading them away at bargain basement prices just yet.
For kicks, do you remember when everyone was suggesting you get a piece of the Cowboys after Tom Brady went down in Week 1? I bet you wish you had auctioned them off in a trade offer then.
Sorry, I had to bring it up.
The Cowboys have a bye week to work things out, but don't expect your same old Cowboys to come out in Week 11. The offense is out-of-sync, and some of the blame goes to the offensive line that isn't holding up to their big-wall-of-man-meat pedigree.
Tony Romo will be back at QB, but those offensive line problems are only minimized by Romo's ability to get outside of the pocket and make a play. The line will still have to step up against the Steelers and the Giants later this season for Romo to have a chance at keeping the Cowboys in it.
If you want to be optimistic, Dallas has a good chance to be productive on offense after their bye. The Cowboys should have Roy Williams fully installed in the offense by Week 11, and his threat on the opposite side should free up Terrell Owens and make them both productive enough to start.
Just keep in mind that they'll probably have good games like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin have good games — one gets 100 yards while the other gets two touchdowns.
Marion Barber will continue to be "The Barbarian," and Jason Witten should heal up enough to work the middle routes.
Maybe it's a good thing that the Cowboys defense won't stop anything — at least for fantasy owners.
I am much less hopeful about the Raiders.
The Lane Kiffin firing has knocked the wind out of them, and Justin Fargas lacks that extra step he had last season. I never understood their reasoning in keeping Fargas by extending his contract this offseason, but then again, who understands Al Davis?
One of the top rushing offenses in football last season couldn't even get 100 yards against an up-and-coming Atlanta defense that's been torched on the ground and ranks better than just ten teams against the run (22 of 32). I think it's only because I had to play against a team that started the Falcons D/ST this week. I like to think positive like that — you know, glass half full.
The Raiders just don't know what they're doing anymore, and the only player that might still have a few stud games left in him, Darren McFadden, is too banged up to see the field.
I'd keep Fargas and McFadden for depth, but I think I'd boot any other Raider not named Zach Miller from my fantasy team until they show signs of life.
Apparently, there were angels in the end zone all over the NFL in Week 9.
The Lions held onto a lead…until it mattered. The Chiefs pushed a good defense into an overtime shootout…but lost. But after a long wait, the Bengals won the lottery by hitting Jacksonville on a bad day.
Going into the late game Sunday, Tyler Thigpen was the fantasy scoring leader. That makes me sicker than Kyle Orton looking as good as Peyton Manning this season.
Thigpen was accompanied by surprise performances from Cedric Benson, Chad Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Brent Celek, Dan Orlovsky, Ray Rice, Michael Jenkins and Kevin Smith. (You'll probably see some of those names in the Dude… Awards for this week.)
When bad teams do well, a lot of bad starts suddenly burst out on the scene. It really is true that every dog has his day…unless you're talking about the Browns.
Is Ocho Cinco back? I doubt it. Every year, he has a big day and follows it up with a bunch of stinkers. I'd trade him for someone more trustworthy now if anyone wants to ride that crazy, publicity-crazed wave.
Ray Rice, while he's only seen limited action, could be the next big thing if McGahee stays out for any length of time. Cam Cameron could make me into a Pro Bowl rusher. Just give him a whole preseason to work with me…and give me a stunt double.
Surprising owners by not sucking is timeless
Both Derrick Mason and Donald Driver went for 130+ and a score despite all the doubters this week. You don't have to be young to have moves. Torry Holt even (sort of) reclaimed the top spot in St. Louis from Donnie Avery by getting a TD this week.
Mason's a good WR3 start every week, especially in PPR, as long as Joe Flacco keeps throwing everything in his direction.
How many people got burned by Willis McGahee?
I did. In TWO leagues, and I was only able to overcome it in one.
Anytime you dress a player and say you expect him to play, you must put him into the game for at least one carry. That's fantasy law. You hear me, Harbaugh?
And for the record…
ESPN's projections for my fantasy team were definitely a little overzealous. Granted, we couldn't have seen how the games were going to go down this week, but for being the No. 1 projected player in fantasy, Lee Evans underperformed with only three points.
And because I like to dream…
Tennessee Titans in the 'Wildcat' offense. Think about it.
Snap the ball to Chris Johnson with LenDale White in the backfield and Vince Young split out as wide receiver. The defense would not be able to stop that, AND as an added bonus, I could stand to watch Titans games.
Kerry Collins is just too boring as a game manager when he's not drinking. The 'Wildcat' style of offense is a package that Vince Young could rock. Young and Johnson running a reverse would be hard enough to follow, and if the Titans had any kind of a deep threat receiver, teams wouldn't be able to spy them all day.
So what do you think, 'Wildcat' in Tennessee? Or is Fisher saving that for the Super Bowl?
The Colts will make the playoffs. Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai can get them there as long as 10 wins earns them a wild card spot.
Foolish live blogging still in beta
We live blogged the games on Sunday, and it seems like the viewers and commenters who dropped by it enjoyed it. If you liked/disliked it or the way we did it, be sure to post a comment.
We'll try to adapt it and find a way to make it more awesome each week — just like everything else we do.
For one, we'll probably reduce the amount of posts, so that reviewing the live blog after the games isn't as overwhelming for those of you who didn't swing by on Sunday.
Of course, you can always catch my thoughts here every week in Foolish Thoughts.
Anquan Boldin, Brent Celek, Cedric Benson, Chad Johnson, Chris Johnson, Dan Orlovsky, Darren McFadden, Derrick Mason, Donald Driver, Donnie Avery, Jamaal Charles, Jason Witten, Joseph Addai, Justin Fargas, Kerry Collins, Kevin Smith, Kyle Orton, Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans, LenDale White, Marion Barber, Michael Jenkins, Peyton Manning, Ray Rice, Roy Williams, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, Torry Holt, Tyler Thigpen, Vince Young, Willis McGahee, Zach Miller
Start or Sit October 10, 2008 JacobLeave a comment
It's about time some of the fantasy studs broke out this year. This week has some matchups to watch. If you 'bought low' on guys like Ryan Grant and Maurice Jones-Drew, picked up Deuce McAllister or drafted Bernard Berrian for depth, this week should show you what they're worth.
For those of you who may have missed the first few weeks of the start or sit breakdown here at the Fools, the "Hot Hands" are players you definitely want to start while "Cold Shoulders" are bums that should leave you hanging this week. The "Bubble Boys" classification points out guys that are somewhere in the middle. They may be (and usually are) good starts, but I still have some concerns about them this week. If you feel that they are your best option, go ahead and start them.
As usual, I'll be answering sit/start questions in the comments up until the game time on Sunday. I should get to questions by Saturday night or Sunday morning — heading to Dallas for the Red River Rivalry (Texas vs. OU) and a wedding. Who gets married on OU weekend?
Brett Favre, QB Jets vs. Bengals — He won't throw six touchdowns, but I think it's safe to say that Favre should take advantage of the Bengals secondary even if the Jets work on establishing the running game in this one.
David Garrard, QB Jaguars vs. Broncos — He's had two good weeks and demonstrated that the Jags passing game can produce. He'll have to show it again against the Broncos if they plan on winning this one.
Kyle Orton, QB Chicago vs. Falcons — Orton is getting more and more done in the passing game. I'd give him a start if you don't have better options. This week, he gets to take on Atlanta after Rodgers just torched them for three TDs last week.
Ryan Grant, RB Packers vs. Seahawks — He's had a pretty miserable season thus far, but coming into camp late because of a holdout and then getting injured will do that to you. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry last week and is angry he hasn't broken one long yet this season like he did all last year. This week against the Seahawks would be a great opportunity for him to return to form against and underperforming defense and control the clock for the Packers.
LeRon McClain, RB Ravens vs. Colts — The Colts can't stop the run, and McGahee can't stay healthy. McClain CAN take full advantage of that situation. Even if McGahee hits the field again, there should be plenty of running to go around. The Ravens will try to give Peyton Manning as little time on the field as possible.
Clinton Portis, RB Redskins vs. Rams — Not that you would be sitting one of the best backs through the first five weeks, but I felt obligated to list him just so I could say again how terrible the Rams are. The only danger with Portis is that the passing game scores before he can. I think he'll get his chances.
Ronnie Brown, RB Dolphins vs. Texans — The 'Wildcat' has been ruining opposing defenses the last several weeks. The Dolphins will keep using the formation until someone can stop it. I don't think that the Texans are that someone.
Deuce McAllister, RB Saints vs. Raiders — Reggie Bush had his big game last week, but Deuce is due. While Oakland's cornerbacks may be slacking, they should be able to cut a few plays off short of the end zone. Deuce is the battering ram that will get those TDs. I like him to see touches this game with a defense soft on the run.
Steve Slaton, RB Texans vs. Dolphins — On the other side of the ball, Slaton should have a good day against Miami. The Dolphins have been surprisingly decent against the run this year, but the Texans should find a way to get the ball in his hands and involve him the passing game so that he still has a good day for fantasy owners. Schaub will want to ease back into the game slowly coming off his illness, and Slaton will be his crutch.
Bernard Berrian, WR Vikings vs. Lions — Berrian had his season highs in catches, yards and touchdowns last week against the Saints and went over 100 yards for the first time this season. He should continue to see plenty of looks against the Lions since Sidney Rice is still out for this one. This week should be the week to start him.
Santana Moss, WR Redskins vs. Rams — Again, the only concern you should have about starting Moss is whether or not Portis will break every other carry for a long touchdown. That's a good concern to have.
Jerricho Cotchery, WR Jets vs. Bengals — Cotchery should be the stretch man for Favre in this one, and the Bengals won't be shutting down Cotchery or Coles on passing plays. For the sake of padding stats, Favre's gotta hit Cotchery for a score. Coles remains a good start as well.
Washington Redskins D/ST vs. Rams — We're really picking on the Rams here. If you need a bye week fill for defense this week, the Redskins should be a top option facing one of the worst offenses in football. St. Louis shouldn't put many points up on this unit that has been holding back the Eagles and Cowboys offensive powerhouses the last two weeks.
J.T. O'Sullivan, QB 49ers vs. Eagles — We've seen O'Sullivan take the hits and still make the plays, but this week, the hits might be too much for him. The Eagles should attack, attack and attack while keeping a lock on Isaac Bruce, O'Sullivan's hottest target thus far. For O'Sullivan to have a good game, Bryant Johnson and other supporting cast members will have to step up.
Gus Frerotte, QB Vikings vs. Lions — Don't get me wrong. Frerotte is still worth a start if you need him, and I think he will give Berrian a good day. I only put him on the bubble because you have to worry that Peterson will go off. I don't think that the Vikings will abandon the run, so I would peg him for a conservatively good day.
Eli Manning, QB Giants vs. Browns — Eli has led one of the most powerful offenses in football this season, but I have some concerns this week. With Plax returning, will there be tension in the passing game? And will the Giants really get a chance to open up the passing game with all their powerful runners? I think Eli is still a solid start, but if you have another stud, you might consider them. Post a comment below if you are having a tough time making the call.
Peyton Manning, QB Colts vs. Ravens — Both Manning brothers are bubble boys this week. While Peyton would normally be a lock as a start after his bye has passed, the Colts still seem like a struggling offense. The offensive line is holding them back severely. I'd still take a chance on Manning to do it all against the Ravens, but don't be shocked if he posts another low week.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jaguars vs. Broncos — On paper, this matchup looks great, but I'm still apprehensive about starting MJD after the Broncos held Warrick Dunn and Earnest Graham relatively in check. I'd still start him in this one, but don't demand a huge performance. The Jags may have to abandon the run to keep pace if Cutler and the Broncos explode.
Derek Anderson, QB Browns vs. Giants — Anderson practiced being comfortable on his back this week because he'll be taking a lot of hits here against the Giants. They'll come at him all day long. I don't think it'll be pretty.
DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, RB Panthers vs. Buccaneers — Riding the hot hand with Williams this week? Don't. The Bucs have a stout defense against the run, and they should keep the score low just like their game with the Broncos last week. While I am sure one team will have success running the ball, I can't say which will win the day. I think you should be able to find a more definite start at RB. If not, I'd put Stewart ahead of Williams.
All Detroit Lions vs. Vikings — We're not really sure who's starting at quarterback for the Lions since Kitna may be out, and that uncertainty takes the Detroit passing game down several notches as Orlovsky and Drew Stanton still need to settle into the position before they're worth a fantasy start. The run stoppers on Minnesota won't let Kevin Smith or Rudi Johnson go anywhere. This week could be a lot of goose eggs for your Lions.
Jamal Lewis, RB Browns vs. Giants — The Browns passing game isn't doing enough this season to take pressure off of Lewis, and the Giants are going to go after Anderson all day. I don't think Lewis gets many opportunities, and I don't see him doing much with the ones he does get.
Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Bengals vs. Jets — With Carson Palmer sitting this weekend, you really are taking a big chance starting either of these guys. While it might be a shootout, Fitzpatrick is more likely to turn the ball over than score when he goes long.
Martin Gramatica, K Saints vs. Raiders — Okay, this one is just a joke. Gramatica is on IR, but his injury is probably more to his pride and reputation than his leg. Looks like I was right in thinking he would be gone by Friday.
Not Starting Due to Injury
Note that the latest reports have Brian Westbrook, Carson Palmer, Reggie Brown, Deion Branch, Tony Scheffler and Anquan Boldin sitting out this week. Jon Kitna, Brian Griese, Matt Hasselbeck and Kellen Winslow might also miss. Keep your eye on injury reports Sunday morning.
Zach Miller, TE Raiders vs. Saints — Miller ended last season as JaMarcus Russell's most trustworthy target. He's looking like he might lead the team in receptions this season, so he's worth taking a look at this week. Russell could look for him down the field when the Raiders need a score to match the Saints.
Miami Dolphins D/ST vs. Texans — If all of the good defenses are taken, you could do much worse than the Dolphins. They've held up against the Chargers and Patriots. The Texans should have Schaub back under center, but that shouldn't keep Miami from getting some sacks and turnovers to keep the score low in this one.
Having trouble setting your roster this week? Post your questions down below if you would like the Fools to help you out.
Anquan Boldin, Bernard Berrian, Brett Favre, Brian Griese, Brian Westbrook, Calvin Johnson, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Clinton Portis, Dan Orlovsky, David Garrard, DeAngelo Williams, Deion Branch, Derek Anderson, Deuce McAllister, Drew Stanton, Eli Manning, Gus Frerotte, J.T. O'Sullivan, Jamal Lewis, Jerricho Cotchery, Jon Kitna, Jonathan Stewart, Kellen Winslow, Kevin Smith, Kyle Orton, Laveranues Coles, LeRon McClain, Martin Gramatica, Matt Hasselbeck, Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Manning, Reggie Brown, Ronnie Brown, Roy Williams, Rudi Johnson, Ryan Grant, Santana Moss, sleeper, Start or Sit, Steve Slaton, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Tony Scheffler, Zach Miller