Nasa studies failures as guide to success
Past failures hold a lesson for next voyages to the moon and beyond
Robin McKie, science editor
Sat 4 Oct 2008 19.01 EDT First published on Sat 4 Oct 2008 19.01 EDT
The Apollo missions achieved their initial goals but failed to fulfil Nasa's long-term hopes. Photograph: Corbis
A British study, commissioned by Nasa, has concluded that many of the world's greatest expeditions, including the Apollo moon missions, were either short-term or long-term failures - or both. Although hailed as heroes, Raleigh, Shackleton and other explorers made less of an impact on world affairs than previously thought, says the report.
Now space agency managers hope this study of failures will help them guide America to success when it starts sending men and women to the moon and beyond in the next 10 years. Researchers analysed six voyages. Only Columbus's and John Franklin's 1845 expedition to find the Northwest Passage - on which all his 129 crewmen died - had any strategic merit, it was found. The Apollo missions achieved their initial goal of putting men on the moon but failed to fulfil Nasa's long-term hopes of opening the solar system to human exploration.
Three other expeditions were studied by Professor Tim Bedford and colleagues at Strathclyde University's management science department: Raleigh's 16th-century attempt to set up colonies in America; Scotland's bid to establish a colony in Panama in the 17th century; and Shackleton's 1914 exploration of Antarctica. Each was both a short-term and a long-term failure.
The analysis is being studied by Nasa as it prepares for more space exploration with a manned rocket programme in 2015. 'Our most important observation was that, of the six great expeditions we looked at, all - with the exception of the Apollo moon landings - were failures in terms of meeting their original objectives,' said Bedford. Columbus failed to find a new route to Asia. Shackleton failed to cross Antarctica in 1915 after his ship was trapped in sea ice. Franklin and his crew died seeking a passage to the Pacific. Raleigh's colony was wiped out. Worst of all, the Darien scheme was such 'a political, economic and social disaster' - thanks to English and Spanish opposition - that it bankrupted Scotland and forced it to agree to the 1707 Act of Union. With Columbus and Franklin, the failures were mitigated by long-term beneficial results; the former discovered the New World, while ships sent to find Franklin made key discoveries that led to the finding of the Northwest Passage.
By contrast, Apollo achieved its goal of putting men on the moon before the Russians, but the equipment used had no application for other projects. The programme cost £70bn in today's money. Nasa has since struggled to find a reason to put men into space; hence the interest of executives setting up the Constellation programme which will take astronauts back to the moon next decade and later to Mars. 'We presented our study to senior Nasa managers, including Jeff Hanley, head of the Constellation programme,' said Bedford. 'We made it clear we are risk analysts, not historians... We also made it clear that even failed expeditions can teach us something. You cannot look at Shackleton - who saved all his men in dreadful circumstances - and not be roused by his achievement. Apollo 13, which nearly ended in disaster, is probably the most inspiring of all the moon missions.'