Hurricane Harvey: likely to be the next "Katrina" and "Sandy" for climate alarmists
Anthony Watts
First, here's what is going on:
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
…OUTER RAINBAND FROM HARVEY SWIPING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
…CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…26.7N 96.0W
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB…27.97 INCHES
The Hurricane Watch south of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of
the Rio Grande has been discontinued.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.
Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward
speed is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the
middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely
to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A buoy located about 40 miles east of South Padre
Island recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).
The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 947 mb (27.97 inches).
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall
of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…
N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: All last-minute preparations should be rushed to completion
since tropical storm conditions are likely just beginning in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are likely to begin within the hurricane
warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible later today through
Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast.
Harvey is expected to strengthen, according to NHC, and that may end the "major hurricane drought" we have been experiencing in the USA, now 4324 days since Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Florida on October 24th, 2005.
Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.
Some predictable headlines that you'll likely see:
Harvey's rainfall was made worse due to climate change/global warming
Harvey's flooding was made worse due to climate change/global warming
Harvey's storm surge was made worse due to climate change/global warming
Harvey's maximum sustained winds were made worse due to climate change/global warming
Harvey spawned more tornadoes due to climate change/global warming
More storms like Harvey are in our future due to climate change/global warming
Some current alarmist headlines:
Here's Why Hurricane Harvey Is So Scary and Unprecedented
Zombie storm comes back from the (mostly) dead to threaten Gulf Coast with biblical flooding
Surprise: Hurricane Harvey Blamed On 'Climate Change'
Harvey's intensity and rainfall potential tied to global warming
And there are sure to be more….
Some perspective for those who forget history:
The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 – Remembering the deadliest natural disaster in American history
The IPCC SREX report ( IPCC Special Report on Extremes PDF)
From Chapter 4 of the SREX:
"There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change"
"The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados"
"The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses"
There's simply no connection between droughts, hurricanes, thunderstorms, flash floods, tornadoes and "climate change".
3,700-year-old Babylonian tablet rewrites the history of maths – and shows the Greeks did not develop trigonometry
Friday Funny – Advice from another scientist to Neil DeGrasse Tyson @neiltyson – 'stick with eclipses'
Jeff in Calgary
Wow. Yesterday this storm looked fairly dull. I guess the warm (hot) water in the Gulf of Mexico has the ability to fire up low intensity storms really fast.
Donald L. Klipstein
Reply to Jeff in Calgary
Remember hurricane Alicia of 1983, which intensified rapidly in the Gulf and hit the Texas coast as a Cat-3. It was the costliest Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone since Agnes of 1972, and the first billion $ tropical cyclone in Texas history according to Wikipedia.
Reply to Donald L. Klipstein
Hard to take Wikipedia seriously, given their entry for this site.
Ralph Westfall
I understand your feelings, but even though parts of Wikipedia are biased that doesn't mean most of the information isn't credible. Since much of the content is footnoted, you can follow up to further evaluate whether the information is reliable, but of course you also need to evaluate the credibility of the cited materials.
But honestly, you can't completely trust anything without exercising a substantial amount of critical thinking (which unfortunately the educational system doesn't promote). The aphorism, "Believe none of what you hear, and only half of what you see," is probably over-optimistic nowadays.
Note that individual articles in Wikipedia are often monitored and protected by people who have a knowledge of and an interest in the topic. Some of these "patrons" are honest and conscientious. For articles on politicized topics like climate change, that's not the case.
Since anyone can edit an article, you are free to monitor topics of interst to you. If an article has a substantial number of people who maintain a perspective different from yours you won't be able to overcome that, especially since Some People Get Paid a Lot of Money to Edit Wikipedia Pages. But you can successfully reinforce maintenance efforts on topics where the majority of backers are in general agreement with your thinking.
To be effective, you need to learn how Wikipedia works. This article, How Wikis Work: Understanding Wikipedia, could help but signing up and trying things over a substantial period will be necessary to get the experience you need to have much success.
Ralph if there is any "conservative" controversy the pages are blocked from general editing. Try editing one of the climate change pages, and see how far you get.
Bryan A
1972, 1983, 1994(9), 2005, 2017 about once every 11-12 years (except 1994) Texas takes a hit someplace between Corpus Christi and Galveston
takes a hit by a CAT 3 storm
czechlist
I recall Allen in 1980. Hottest summer of my life and we were begging for rain.
Was a CAT 5 in the Atlantic and also in the Gulf of Mexico but hit S Texas as a CAT 3
CO2 was 341ppm.
Today CO2 is 409ppm
BTW – we didn't get a drop of rain from Allen
Hurricane Harvey is the new normal. If we do not act NOW, soon we will live a permanent hurricane. We must act now!
john harmsworth
Reply to Greg
I stopped running my A/C this week. That should fix it!
+lots.
I will soon, I guess, re-start my heating.
This (UK) Summer in south London, has not been very warm.
A couple of evenings, I've wrapped up in a fleece.
In July and August! [Cricket season, for goodness sake!]
A little bit more warming would not be a disaster!!
McLovin'
Greg: You forgot to hit the *sarcasm* tag before posting.
I like the cartoon.
That said, I do hope this passes off without deaths; without serious injury may be too much to hope.
Oh, and of course it will be worse due to whatever the latest synonym for destroying the West is this week; aberrant weather [caused by SUVs]?
"Hurricane Harvey: likely to be the next "Katrina" and "Sandy" for climate alarmists" – meanwhile, Planet Earth is just doing what it's done for millions of years…
Sandy was not a hurricane.
>>>Hurricane Harvey: likely to be the next "Katrina" and "Sandy" for climate alarmists
>>>There's simply no connection between droughts, hurricanes, thunderstorms, flash floods, tornadoes and "climate change".
Millions are at risk on the Gulf Coast… their homes, workplaces and even lives, and the preceding words could come back to haunt Mr. Watts. This isn't the time to fight this lost battle. But whatever… it's his website.
Reply to Magma
Why would any of them haunt him? We could do everything in our power to "mitigate" climate change and hurricanes would still make landfall. So long as we continue to build along coastlines there will be peril involved. It is indeed most unfortunate but not matter what you might think we simply cannot control nature.
And btw, the second quotation you provide are the words of the IPCC, not Watts. That aside Mr. Watts has not wished ill on anyone based on his comments so your remark is odd at best. When someone does wish harm upon those that might be affected by this storm go right ahead and lambaste them, I'll be right there with you.
Reply to buggs
"And btw, the second quotation you provide are the words of the IPCC"
No, they aren't. Read again, more carefully this time.
Magma,
There's simply no connection between droughts, hurricanes, thunderstorms, flash floods, tornadoes and "climate change"
Yes, the above statement is not an IPPC quote; it is a very succinct summary of the three IPCC quotes that proceeded the statement.
RWturner
Simple minds seem to be getting simpler by the day.
Kalifornia Kook
RWturner – you said a mouthful. Some people are amazingly dense.
HotScot
NEWSFLASH!
Alarmists stoop to emotional blackmail. Can they get any lower!
Rob Dawg
Seems there might be a strong positive correlation twixt the US not doing anything about climate change and the decrease in major hurricanes making US landfall. Maybe we are "doing something."
Before anyone points out. I know, correlation is not causation. I also know calling out Mr. W our gracious host for wishing others ill is completely inappropriate.
Reply to Rob Dawg
Your hypothesis is pretty well as good as the dominant one!
Millions are at risk on the Gulf Coast… their homes, workplaces and even lives, and the preceding words could come back to haunt Mr. Watts.
What, hurricanes don't occur in a "normal" non-warming climate? We never had them prior to 1850? The Atocha and a myriad other Spanish and Portuguese fleet galleons simply sank due to operator error?
Michael Jankowski
Al Gore will try to make millions off of those millions of unlucky souls. Folks ranging from Michael Mann to Bernie Sanders are salivating at the opportunity to score points. They want devastation and despair. They want people to point the finger at Trump and Republicans.
Reply to Michael Jankowski
Yes, and all while implicating the Republicans and ACGW sceptics are the callous jerks.
Rubbish. People are at risk all the time. To live is to be at risk. The people that live on the gulf coast have chosen to accept the risk of hurricanes, just as those of us that live in the snow belt accept the risk of blizzards. There is zero evidence that anything mankind has done has had any effect on these natural events. Exactly zero.
Reply to Paul Penrose
Doesn't matter. Magma, and leftists everywhere, will pretend Anthony said he doesn't care about Harvey's victims. It's what they do.
Don Cornelius
"Millions are at risk on the Gulf Coast… their homes, workplaces and even lives, and the preceding words could come back to haunt Mr. Watts. "
Why? At no point did he ever claim that hurricanes aren't dangerous or that people should not evacuate in the path of this hurricane.
He just accurately stated that hurricanes have been happening for a long LONG time before people were around to superstitiously blame them on failing to make the proper sacrifices to their ALGORE tiki idols in their religion of "climate change".
Another Doug
I'm one of those at risk on the Texas coast, and Anthony is absolutely correct. Whatever happens, there will be idiots and/or people with an agenda who will blame it on climate change. If you know any old timers in the path of Harvey, ask them about Carla, back when CO2 was much lower.
Which emotional tag line comes next?
"Why were they ever allowed to build there?"
"They shouldn't be allowed to rebuild there."
"Why are we subsidizing these people to rebuild in an are where they are going to just be destroyed again."
PRDJ
Reply to DonM
Let them build where ever they wish. Just don't ask ME to subsidize YOUR decision to build in the _____________________________ (fill in the blank with your high hazard location – beach, river floodplain, active fault line, tornado alley, below sea level).
"… area that is within 75 miles of the Gulf Coast?"
"Red Hook, Rockaways, Staten Island (Midland Ave), areas of New York?"
Can I ask YOU to subsidize MY decision to build in the safest area of the country? Tell me where it's acceptable to build, send me the subsidy (we'll negotiate the amount), and I'll send you a thank you note.
Cliff Hilton
Magma says
"Millions are at risk on the Gulf Coast… their homes, workplaces and even lives, and the preceding words could come back to haunt Mr. Watts. This isn't the time to fight this lost battle. But whatever… it's his website"
Magma, you do realize all the words coming from alarmist have cost trillions already. Not counting the starvation and suffering of hundreds of millions who live day to day without the comfort of a computer to berate Mr Watts.
I live here on the Texas coast, along with a slew of fellow skeptics. I am currently waiting on the storm just north of Houston. Nothing here is out of the ordinary. My business was impacted by Ike. Not in a negative way. The best month this restaurant ever had. Keep them coming.
Go do something worth while. I am.
Gunga Din
Magma August 25, 2017 at 10:03 am
This is classic.
This stuff was projected to havebeen increasing annually because of caGW for, what, each year for the last 10 years, by "Climate Seancetist"?
Yet they haven't. (For a record number of recorded years.)
Al Gore etc. have been WRONG about Man's CO2 causing or "intensifying" much of any naturally occurring events for decades.
I was in the middle of a tropical storm in San Antonio a few decades ago. Almost died.
Man didn't cause it.
Don't mistake stating the facts as a lack of pathos for those in Harvey's path.
(Just think. If so much had not been wasted to prevent the unpreventable, how much might have been available to respond?)
1) Most of us live hundreds to thousands of miles away from the Texas coast.
There's nothing we can do at the present time to help anyone in the hurricane's path.
2) What lost battle? The real science is winning against the politicized scare tactics of the global warming mongers.
andrewpattullo
Hope everyone is sheltered. History suggests this is coming ashore over a very vulnerable coast.
Except it's in Texas. What would that state look like if there were never any landfalls of hurricanes and tropical storms?
Ans: New Mexico.
Probably not that 300 mile long sandbar from Houston to Mexico….
Glad I decided to rethink moving to Corpus. Love the Gulf, but not dealing with a hurricane.
Reply to Victoria
The problem with this one is that it is predicted to stall and keep dropping rain. If it just went ashore and blew through, even a more powerful storm could cause less damage.
John M
Exactly, will stall due to the Highs that are impacting its path.
Question, why are they reporting the European modeling on The networks? Because it's always a dooms day forecast?
Good point. The local (St. Louis) meteorologists all pointed out that the massive rainfall projections were because of a high pressure system blocking Harvey's path, and possibly causing it to stall. I've been watching the Weather Channel for a while now, and they haven't mentioned that. They keep saying this storm is "unique", "unprecedented ", and "one for the record books" without saying why. At least they did say that it will be worse because it will hit at high tide, but I doubt that will ever come up in the post storm analysis.
I've been watching the best guess path for the last couple of days, and I've never seen a hurricane that was projected to reverse course actually back up. It's projected to stay in a fairly confined area from this afternoon until late Tuesday or Wednesday, while staying close enough to the gulf to pull in humid air.
I fear that 35 inches may be the low end of what will happen.
Think of all of the great surfing you'll miss! I lived in Houston during Alicia and that was pretty bad. A lot of people went without power for over 90 days.
Cam_S
There it is! Trenberth says so!
Global warming is making the oceans hotter, fueling the intensity and flooding potential of storms like Harvey, climate scientists said as the hurricane approached.
http://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Harvey-s-intensity-and-rainfall-potential-tied-11957010.php
Reply to Cam_S
That cartoon should be funny but it is, rather, sad because it is true.
Global warming is making the oceans hotter, fueling the intensity and flooding potential
Potential? Perhaps. Reality is entirely something different. Worldwide cyclone ACE has been stable or declining for 40 years now.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp?basin=gl
I posted the sea surface temp anomalies last night as Harvey strengthened…nothing much anomalous about it.
The Ocean Surface Anomaly off of Corpus Christi is just slightly above normal right now.
My question to that is "How much have the oceans heated up? Oh, <0.5°C? I don't think there is any extra 'fuel' provided…
Closer to 0.001C.
Not exactly, the meridional overturning circulation is surfacing warm water (and has been for decades) which is warming the atmosphere in the upper latitudes. Warm SSTs in the gulf are normal at this time of year. That is why the hurricane season peaks after August.
TomRude
Funny how if it was water temperature's hot spot as Trenberth suggests that was directly linked to the hurricane strength, why is not a cat. 5 by now?
Reply to TomRude
That's another good question. Why aren't they more frequent and all Cat 5? instead of less frequent and pretty average or below in intensity?
How much extra energy does water being 0.001C warmer add to a hurricane?
The outer parts of the Harvey system have already reached suburban Austin, where I am. No rain yet, but heavy overcast.
The theme of the news the next few days will be that Trump offended Gaia when he pulled out of the Paris accord, so Harvey is retribution.
Hopefully Texas is a teacup.
Always wanted to visit and get myself a nice Stetson and a decent pair of boots.
Reply to HotScot
Those are cheaper over the internet. So are saddles.
HotScot, You should look at Lucchase boots. They must be tried on as they are made on hand made lasts and vary from pair to pair. For hats, The Hat Store in Houston. They make hats, perhaps better than Stetson. Next best thing to a beaver on your head.
If you think I'm going to visit Texas and use the internet to but boots and a hat, you're mad, I could do that from the UK. I want to stand in a store full of hats and boots and try them all on. Spurs and holster, complete with a six shooter as well.
YeeeeeHaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sadly, one of my best friends lived an worked in Huston (big wig Oil exec., just a kid a Primary school to me though) and I never took advantage of the offer to visit. I really wish I had. I'll make a not of Lucchase boots and the Hat Store for when I do fulfil my bucket list. 🙂
And I like the idea of a beaver on my head. Ooooo Er Missus!
Andy May
Watching it closely. We live in The Woodlands about 33 miles north of Houston, so we are on the edge of the storm and it is not raining here yet. No wind. The pressure has fallen from 30 inches to about 29.8, likely to fall further later tonight. We will definitely get a lot of rain, but I suspect it will be spread over several days. We'll just have to wait and see how it goes.
Reply to Andy May
Not much like Calgary, eh, Jeff? But you guys had weather that one time!
Waiting to see how many emergency response vehicles are battery powered.
Great question! Nothing like a fossil fueled vehicle with a couple of extra fuel cans on-board.
Hope people can stay safe.
may end the "major hurricane drought"….
I don't see how…..no more than one rain ends a drought
…we will still be in a hurricane drought
A C Osborn
I think that they may be hyping the sustained wind speed as they usually do.
It will be interesting to see what the actual ground based measurements are.
NuSchool Earth showing about 125kph, not 175Kph.
I wonder if the quote is for top of the Hurricane satellite measurements.
Reply to A C Osborn
Often they are estimated based on aerial observations. The claim is that the actual wind measurement devices break when high winds hit them, so they are unreliable for measuring maximum hurricane wind. If that is true, I think some mechanical engineers need to be fired.
We took a direct hit from Cat 3 Wilma in 2005. Also a direct hit from (when we got hit) Cat 1 Katrina same year. Developed a rule of thumb based on those experiences.. Cat 1 and 2, we stay put. Building is post Andrew code; we have Cat 5 impact glass and sills set in reinforced concrete. Service disruptions not so bad. Week of food and potable water, filled bathtubs for flushing all works fine. In the cone of a Cat 3 and up, we grab the go bag and go next time. Service disruptions can last many days. For Wilma, it was two days for water, four days to restore power and up to a week clean streets sufficient to be passable. Picking up all the damaged stuff took more than two weeks, repairing our completely devastated pool deck took 9 months. Fortunately, for us flooding is not an issue like for Texas. Storm surge is handled by moving all vehicles off the lowest parking level and sandbagging all the purpose built steel and concrete building entrances on that level. That level itself is purpose designed behind artifical sand dunes to be 10 feet above MHT.
Sure looks like SE Texas is going to get walloped. Not sure mostly voluntary evacuations of coastal areas was wise from a public safety perspective. We will all know soon enough.
ptolemy2
How exciting!
I want everyone to keep in mind the benefits of Harvey recharging aquifers, forestalling seawater intrusions, drought abeyance, atmospheric cleansing, on and on.
And Cleaning out the Houston Ship Channel.
Don't forget how much heat is being shunted to the stratosphere.
I am tracking the values reported by Buoy 42020, which is almost directly West of the eye. 65MPH winds now.
Reply to Steve Fraser
Typo: Now 56MHP.
This is an important point. In the olden dayes of dragons and sea serpents (1980s) where our flying one or two aircraft through the system there was only a 10%? 20%? chance of hitting and recording the lowest pressure or highest wind speeds. Now with satellites, GPS, better and more surveys we are going to get the lowest millibar region reading out there.
We may need a congressional inquiry into reported wind speeds. This seems to be a trend recently where NOAA is reporting much higher values than the actual measurement equipment is.
that is what i see the decision was made we are going to make harvey "major" no matter what the measurements say
Last year Hermine got upgraded from TS to cat 1 by confusing the 1 minute sustained windspeed definition with 10 second gusts.
Con-fused by con-artists, Rud.
yes…and they are still calling Hermine a hurricane
Andrew Cooke
As a resident of a state bordering Texas I can say with confidence that things will be ok. Texans are self reliant, strong willed and stubborn. This storm, even if it strengthens to a category 3, will not scare, intimidate or frighten them. They, like most Americans in fly-over country, will pull together, persevere and overcome. Texas has taken its fair share of direct hits that have wiped out entire cities (1886 Indianola and 1900 Galveston) and they just keep on going.
Just another hurricane, nothing different then what has been hitting that coast since the beginning of time. Be careful everyone down in South Texas. You'll make it through.
Reply to Andrew Cooke
Early projections show it slowly moving up the coast.
Well, maybe Harvey will take that one lone computer projection and head north into Oklahoma. If it will just keep moving, it won't be so bad.
It doesn't add up...
Update as of 1200CDT
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/251656.shtml
Still holding at 110mph sustained winds – no intensification as of now. The last major hurricane in the area was Rita:
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/projects_rita05
That was fairly destructive, although not quite the end of the infamous 2005 season that also included Katrina and ended with Wilma.
Looking at NOAA's NHC web page is a little annoying. Every entry uses a different timezone.
1) Public Advisory, Forecast Discussion, and NWS Local Products use CDT
2) Forecast Advisory and Wind Speed Probabilities use UTC
3) US Watch/Warning uses EDT
Standardization is good. It would help everyone if they stuck to one timezone for their products.
Also, Wind Speed Probabilities uses 24h while the others use AM/PM.
The transition from the Imperial system to the Metric system is on hold.
You're asking a lot, Jeff. They can't even tell temperature accurately!
Because it was revealed last year that NOAA was reporting wind speeds at altitude which were well above ground wind speeds, I'm going to spend Sat afternoon watching ground speeds via the PWSs hooked up to Wunderground. Couple of cold beers and a spreadsheet….. Life is good.
I hope the warnings are over hyped. I spent the last two days on the ground in the Houston area trying to convince my grandmother to 'visit' family elsewhere. She's 94 and very stubborn… gave me a good whack and called me a scoundrel.
This is not the least problem created by alarmists that overhype everything – the 'boy who cried wolf' effect, where people become indifferent to possible real danger because every single weather even is cast as the end of the world.
It's worth remembering that Katrina was the third time that year New Orleans had been told they might need to build an Arc – which was why a lot of residents simply ignored the warnings.
Jeff L
NHC listing as cat 3 in latest update.
2nd eyeball forming & eyeball replacement cycle could prevent further strengthening prior to landfall later tonight. Big story is still going to be the rain
Reply to Jeff L
*eyewall, dang spell checker
We never had hurricanes with eyeballs when CO2 was lower.
At this moment earth nullschool is showing only 130kph/87mph or Cat-1. Not Cat 2 or 3. Fake news!!
Zum Bomb
I imagine that it is only a short time, like a few hours, that alarmists will lay the blame on Humanity instead of Climate Change.
Oh my! Humans Killing Humans! Oh the Humanity!
Ha ha
Reply to Zum Bomb
And the difference to the situation in Yemen is – what, exactly?
The 174kph/114mph is at 850mlb or 5000ft! But I'm sure they'll go with higher number. Kinda like they do with the temp record. The ground is where we live after all.
Reply to Gonzo
And, for the Hurricane measurements, supposed to be done at 10m of elevation.
That's what you call "moving the goalposts".
A harbinger of things to come. The Jet Stream will be promoted to a Hurricane.
RPDC
Fortunately, since it's Texas that's getting hit, the only quote that reporters will be able to get from residents in the aftermath will be, "What hurricane? You mean that little sprinkle we had yesterday?"
I noticed that too. I've been checking it most of the day and didn't see it more than 136 km/h = 85 mph. I find the highest now at 125 km/m = 78 mph.
These are listed as surface speeds. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-93.67,23.97,1723/loc=-95.619,27.315
What height do they officially measure them? According to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php Cat 3 is 111 – 129 mph.
Reply to DCA
10 metres, unobstructed.
On the ground in Corpus Christi, 2:45pm, the local weather station shows Rainy, Temp 75F, Wind at 33MPH from the North.
What happened to the permanent drought in Texas? /s
Reply to EW3
It's a flooding drought. The worst kind!
Some models show it looping back out to sea before moving up the coast and coming back into land east of Galveston. If I were there I would be grabbing my bugout bag and leave NOW. 24+ inches of rain through the next 4 days, GTFO of dodge.
This is how Texans respond to hurricanes! They raised Galveston. Very interesting video.
There are some _really_ nice houses at Clear Lake (not too far from NASA) that are built that way at the waterfront. With storm surge in Galveston Bay at high tides, the water gets packed in, and rises right up the lawns. Prior to the 1901 hurricane, Galveston harbor was the busiest on the Gulf coast, now, not so much.
We have CAT 3:
Reply to It doesn't add up...
WTF? Cat 3 is 111-129 mph sustained according to the interweb. Nowhere near that.
The dystopians are getting desperate for bad news. I thought that only category 5 was noteworthy. Now category 3 is already being hyped. It'll fizzle, then they will make the most of some wet ground and cardboard boxes bouncing along the street, with hair flapping melodramatically. Maybe some drowned earthworms will underline that we need to act now!
The Russians hacked our weather!
Looks like its gonna be a ripsnorter.
Batten the hatches me hearties and brace the halyards.
See you on the other side of midnight.
The AGW fear mongers aren't doing themselves any favors by hyping Harvey as a product of global warming. Even the average Joe knows that we have been in a hurricane drought for over 10 years. If the warming is making the storms stronger, then why have they been weaker for the last decade. We are still way below average for landfalling hurricanes during any 10 year period. They more the make irrational claims, the more support they will loose.
That said…Harvey is going to be bad. It may take a week before we know just how bad it is going to be, but it is going to be bad! In the last few hours, it has taken on the structure of a very dangerous major hurricane. And while no surface station may report a sustained wind as strong as the Hurricane Center reports, the winds will be bad enough and last for long enough to dismantle whole regions along the Texas Coast. The storm surge flooding and rainfall flooding are going to be horrible and devastating. People are going to die.
I know this precisely because it is NOT unprecedented. This has happened many times before, and it has always been a real mess in the past. It will be so again this time.
I would encourage my fellow WUWT posters to avoid being cavalier with what is unfolding along the Texas Coast. It will be a disaster and many people will need our help and our prayers. In my experience, the Salvation Army does a much better job of providing that help than the Red Cross. (The Red Cross, on the other hand, does a much better job getting in front of the media and raising money.)
We can't stop those who will attempt to turn this disaster into their political advantage, but we can stop from joining them on that level. Let's have some respect for those who are about to suffer greatly.
Agree. Been following. I would have grabbed the go bag and gone if in Corpus Christy, just based on the prediction of future Cat 3. As posted above, my rule of thumb on evacuation is based on past personal experience. Afraid it is now too late for those who decided to hunker down. Read an hour ago about one man in his 60's, lost drivers licence due to failing eyesight, caring for 40 yearbold handicapped son, wandering down street looking for food supplies and refusing reporter help. They thought they were on an automatic voluntary evacuation list. But weren't and were not picked up. They are in a 1 story home lass than half mile from the coast, with inadequate food suppies.
I think that story is going to haunt me for a while. It makes you feel impotent knowing what might happen to them, and many others, while we can't do much more than watch (and hope and pray).
Yup! I wish them all the best of luck down there with both wind and water. Hopefully, the storm stands off of land and the rain takes enough breaks to allow some run off to keep up with it.
It looks like Harvey is starting to slow down as the eye draws closer to the coast, coming up on 5 PM central time. This is more bad news.
Not good, but predicted by Joe Bastardi.
The NAS (Naval Air Station) in Corpus, just a bit in from the coast, is reporting 62, gusts to 75 on WunderMap. At the moment, this is tropical-storm strength. Come on, Harvey! Show us what you're made of!
The deadliest hurricane ever to hit the US hit Galveston Texas and killed 8000 people. That happened in 1900, 117 years ago. Was that due to climate change? But of course this current hurricane could only be caused by man made climate change. /sarc.
Eyewall approaching the Coast now. Anybody see any winds in excess of 80mph?
co2isnotevil
It's interesting that the advisory has been claiming winds of 130 Mph for a couple of hours now, just on the edge of cat 4. Did somebody at NOAA round up the wind speeds just to be sure and get the cat 4 rating, not that a cat 3 is a piece of cake …
Patrick MJD
Reply to co2isnotevil
Being rated at CAT 4 in the MSM here in Aus.
Snarling Dolphin
I'm right here Harvey you big one-eyed dork! Come and get some!!
Several reports of 130mph winds in succession – yet no shore station appears to have measured anything even close to that. 130mph is just at the very bottom of Cat 4. There must be suspicion that the category has been hyped. The Rockport weather station (the closest to landfall for which there is any report) only reports a pressure, not a windspeed in the 11 pm CDT update.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al09/al092017.update.08260358.shtml?
I never imagined that "scientists" would become propagandists for the Left and follow Lenin's axiom, "A lied told often enough soon becomes the truth." Yet they have. Tropical cyclones are another one of those natural phenomenon that we didn't know much if anything about until we put a satellite up. Before then unless a tropical cyclone came close to land or close to a ship it could come and go without ever being counted. Some of the first scientists to bail out of the UN-IPCC process were tropical cyclone experts who got tired of their research being misused. Dr. Gray wrote a paper explaining how global warming was not and would not be responsible for increased numbers or increased intensity of hurricanes. I lived through Donna, Camille, Hugo, and several tropical storms. I sat through a four hour lecture by the Navy on Camille. It was then and still is the strongest hurricane to make landfall. The Navy had a lot of data. NOAA not so much. Yet NOAA has in recent years changed their data to downgrade Camille. Also you should note that often the warnings for a storm are upgraded within 24-48 hours before making landfall. Not necessarily because the storm is going to increase to that level but because NOAA is afraid of understating the effects. I doubt seriously that anyone having lived through a hurricane makes decisions based on NOAA predictions the last 24 hours before a storm hits.
Just had the latest summary come in from a local university tropical cyclone expert. You will find it of interest.
*Discussion: *A technical note: NHC tends to up-grade storms at landfall.
The actual maximum one minute average 30 feet above ground is virtually
never measured, only inferred. Gusts can be 30% more or less than the one
minute average. Category 4 storm starts with msw winds of 130 mph and goes
to 155 mph. The maximum winds for this storm at landfall was 130. If it
had been 129, it would have been a category 3, not a category 4 storm.
This is great for the insurance companies, for it increases the probability
of a storm in the 130-155 range and thus justifies higher rates. But it is
now in the record books as a category 4 storm for 6 hours. Just sayin'.
PUMPSUMP
Just like fake climate science, false and inaccurate quote attribution is rife on the internet.
It begins. Names of some of the usual suspects included. https://www.yahoo.com/news/cyclones-climate-change-connecting-dots-095128724.html