*** India's Nuclear Security In Aftermath Of Uri Attack – Analysis
Indian army infantry base in Uri came under terrorist attack in the wee hours of September 18, 2016. Four terrorists entered the base and managed to kill 20 soldiers. It apparently took place amidst the change of shifts and caught them off guard. These precisely are the scenarios we need to think through and be prepared for. This comes in the backdrop of another major terrorist attack on one of the Indian frontline air bases — the Pathankot air force base — in January this year.
These attacks raise concerns also about the security of India's vital installations, especially nuclear ones.
It has been fortunate that India has not faced such a scenario on its nuclear premises, including the civil nuclear power plants, so far. And it is certain that each of these attacks pose new questions to the security managers of India's atomic energy installations in how they must further beef up security measures. After every major terrorist attack, the Design Basis Threats (DBT) are reviewed to understand the vulnerabilities and gaps and address them accordingly. But it has to be kept in mind that terrorists by and large do not follow a pattern in their modus operandi and hence India cannot be developing its facilities defence action based on a predictable trajectory.
Till date, the Indian atomic energy and security agencies could claim that the security around sensitive establishments are tight and there have been no incidents such as attacks on its facilities, despite fears expressed by some foreign experts about India's nuclear security. But following the Pathankot and Uri attacks, Indian agencies need to reassess their security measures. The very fact that terrorists have attacked highly secured premises should alert Indian security managers to the type of planning and preparation undertaken by terrorists from across the border.
*** Security Sector Requires Smart Warriors
By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/security-sector-requires-smart-warriors/
As India is rising in a flurry of economic activity, Digital India, Make in India, bullet trains and Smart Cities, what appears to have lost focus is the need for the 'Smart Warrior' in the cutting edge of the Security Sector (Armed Forces, Para Military Forces (PMF), Central Armed Forces (CAPF) and the Police) even as their roles and tasks differ and the requirement of equipping, organization and training will need separate avatars of smart warriors. We seem to be undergoing the same phase as the US Army post the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, wherein an in-house army study revealed that while enormous investments were being made on big ticket weapon systems, the foot soldier was largely neglected.
It is ironic that while infiltrating Pakistani terrorists are equipped with GPS devices, in our case even Special Forces units are deficient of GPS.
Today, we talk of aircraft carriers, advanced fighters, nuclear capable supersonic missiles, ATVs, space and cyber, but the foot soldier are woefully neglected. The Army faces a shortage of over 3,50,000 bullet proof jackets, lacks modern small arms including state-of-the-art assault rifles, surveillance equipment by day and night. Army's Future Infantry Soldier As A System (F-INSAS) conceived in April 2005 as part of Infantry Vision 2020 appears at least a decade away. Same goes for the Battlefield Management System and the Tactical Communications System.
*** Idea of Bharat (India) Under Multiple Attacks
By Sudip Talukdar
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/idea-of-bharat-india-under-multiple-attacks/
Chanakya, one of the sharpest minds in statecraft, observed more than two millenniums ago that poison is the best antidote to venom. There could not have been a sounder advice for our politicians and policy makers, bound by a Nehruvian worldview. Insisting on dialogues, negotiation or good neighbourliness is an exercise in futility, given an atmosphere of extreme hostility and ill will. So much so that when the question of imposing costs arises, the selfsame set and their backers argue for de-escalation of tensions.
Language is being increasingly used as a tool to obfuscate reality and trash the idea of Bharat (India), its pluralism and a long history of peaceful co-existence. In this vicious game of deception and spin doctoring, the practice of employing innuendos, half-truths and even outright fabrications has become more brazen and commonplace.
…these human rights activists even prevailed upon the Supreme Court to consider their plea against Yaqub Memon's execution, the sinister brains behind the Mumbai blasts.
"The most savage battles," noted Arthur Koestler, "have always been fought for ideas." The trenchant observation made by one of the most influential thinkers and authors is becoming increasingly true of our political landscape. Has the Lutyens media, the foreign sponsored NGOs and the academia, ever uttered a word about our DNA of tolerance, which has stood the test of time? Facts are twisted to create something seemingly plausible but enough to cause lasting damage.
*** India, Pakistan And J&K: The Tragedy Of Complacence – Analysis
By Ajit Kumar Singh*
In the worst ever attack in terms of fatalities of Army personnel since terrorism began in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in 1988, at least 17 Army personnel were killed and another 19 were injured when terrorists stormed the administrative base of one of the units of the Indian Army near the Line of Control (LoC) in the Uri town of Baramulla District at around 5:30 am IST on September 18, 2016. Four terrorists involved in the attack were also killed.
Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) Lt. Gen. Ranbir Singh in an official statement on the Uri attack stated,
A group of heavily armed terrorists opened fire on an administrative base of one of the units of Indian Army at Uri in Kashmir at approximately 0530 hours this morning. The firefight between the terrorists and Army personnel continued till approximately 0830 hours, during which four terrorists have been killed. All four killed were foreign terrorists and had some items with them which had Pakistan makings. Initial reports indicate that the slain terrorists belong to Jaish-e-Mohammad [JeM] tanzeem… The terrorists fired incendiary ammunition along with automatic fire of small arms that led to army tents/ temporary shelters catching fire. The tents located in the complex were to house additional troops inducted due to routine turnover of units. There have been a total of 17 Army fatal casualties. Of these, 13-14 casualties have been due to these tents/shelters having caught fire…
On December 5, 2014, Uri had witnessed a similar attack, when a group of heavily armed terrorists had stormed into the Army's 31 Field Regiment Ordinance Camp located at Mohra in the Uri Sector. During the intense operations, one Lieutenant Colonel and seven soldiers of the Army; one Assistant Sub Inspector and two constables of the Jammu and Kashmir Police; were killed. Six terrorists were also killed in the operation.
Two years on, India is still a big fan of Narendra Modi
Manu Balachandran
http://qz.com/784598/pew-research-two-years-on-india-is-still-a-big-fan-of-narendra-modi/
Two years after he came to power, India's affection for Narendra Modi is undiminished.
The Indian prime minister, who took office in May 2014 promising to resurrect the country's stuttering economy and run a corruption-free administration, continues to enjoy the admiration of his countrymen and women, a report by Pew Research has revealed.
The Washington DC-based think-tank, which polled 2,464 respondents between April 7 and May 24, found that a staggering 81% of those surveyed held a "favourable" view of Modi, including 57% who held a "very favourable" opinion. Similarly, about 80% of Indians held a "positive view" of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Satisfaction with the direction in which the country is heading has increased by 36 percentage points since 2013, the Pew Report said. Nearly half of those polled were also supportive of India's growing international economic engagement. Around 72% believe the next generation of Indians will be much better off financially than their parents.
These figures come amidst criticism of the Modi government from some quarters over alleged fuelling of intolerance and even interfering in people's culinary traditions and habits.
In recent times, his government has also come under fire for the mishandling of the ongoing Kashmir crisis, with ramifications on the immediate security scenario as reflected in the Sept. 18 terror attack that killed 18 soldiers in an army camp.
But those who do back Modi come from all sections of the Indian population.
Terrorist Attacks and Our Border Management
By Rakesh Kr Sinha
A group of Jaish-e-Mohammad fidayeens attacked an Indian infantry installation at Uri in Jammu and Kashmir at the wee hours on 18th Sept 2016 in which 17 Army jawans were killed and 19 others left critically injured. The four attackers were, however, also neutralized by the armed forces in the counter operation. The initial reports of Uri attacks suggests that these terrorists had infiltrated to India from PoK .
Every time there is a terrorist attack, we hear loud clamors for retributive action against the perpetrators of terrorist attacks in India. But amidst all these hullabaloo, the first and foremost issue of devising new preventive measures somehow loses of its sight.
The terrorist attacks are not new to India and it occurs with a monotonous regularity. In the current geo-political circumstances, there is not much hope of its reduction in any time near. However, our collective response to terrorist attacks is cliché ridden, repetitive and pathetic sometimes. The usual condemnations, evidences of Pakistan's hand, intelligence failure, martyrdom, and xenophobic outbursts would fill the space of social media and newspapers on subsequent days and then it will be business as usual.
Every time there is a terrorist attack, we hear loud clamors for retributive action against the perpetrators of terrorist attacks in India. But amidst all these hullabaloo, the first and foremost issue of devising new preventive measures somehow loses of its sight. Where are the tactical rethinking and course correction to counter this?
Crossing the lines: Uri is a reminder that proxy-wars cannot be fought the conventional way
Hardev Lidder, Prakash Katoch, Saikat Datta
India needs to increase its capacities to deploy special forces in the sub-conventional and unconventional domains.
Sunday's attack by militants from Pakistan on an Army camp in Kashmir that claimed the lives of 18 Indian soldiers has once again shown that India needs to look at a series of responses to counter this proxy war. Traditionally India has maintained a numerical and conventional superiority against Pakistan. However, as the Uri attack and the ones before have shown, Islamabad will continue to leverage non-state actors to target India and undermine its strategic underpinnings.
How can India respond to this decades-old proxy war that has claimed more lives than all those lost in the wars that it has fought since Independence?
It is also pertinent to ask if India has learnt any lessons from these attacks, be it Pathankot or Pampore. The loss of armed forces personnel also impacts the morale of the men and women who guard India's external boundaries and form the bulwark of its internal security. While there is no doubt that there were lapses in past attacks and the Uri attack on several levels – intelligence, military and political – it is also an opportunity to redress the lapses in a meaningful manner.
The Indian political, military and intelligence establishments must use this opportunity to tell the world that India means business.
But how can New Delhi do that?
Wars of the future
Post-Uri attack: Coordination between India, Iran and Afghanistan needed to cut Pakistan to size
By Lt Gen P. C. Katoch
http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=sl&nid=19390
The slanging match at UN General Assembly (UNGA) is already underway. Pakistan has already accused India of stage managing the terrorist attack in Uri to divert attention from Kashmir. And this is not the first time Pakistan has displayed such brazenness. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will go hyper to talk about Indian atrocities in Kashmir and need for plebiscite in accordance with the 1948 UN Resolution on Kashmir. The world is perhaps unaware that: one, the state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) was legally ceded to India in 1947; two, the said UN resolution marked Pakistan as aggressor and that is why Pakistan was required to withdraw its forces from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK); three, issue of plebiscite is dead because Pakistan has deliberately changed the demography of PoK and the 1972 India-Pakistan Shimla Agreement made the UN resolution redundant; four, result of the first ever poll on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC ) in J&K conducted by Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), UK in conjunction with King's College during 2009-2010 brought out that 98% of people in J&K do not wish to be part of Pakistan and 50% of people in PoK do not wish to remain with Pakistan; five, Pakistan has been waging a proxy war in J&K and inducing Wahabism but only 15% population on 7% territory of J&K is affected, and; six, pellet gun casualties in J&K are nothing compared to the aerial and artillery bombardment and genocide that Pakistan has been doing in Baluchistan, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Gilgit-Baltistan.
The Uri terrorist attack was masterminded by Pakistan through Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorists surprising the army in the early hours of the morning, lobbing incendiary grenades and then spraying bullets, some of the grenades setting the diesel dump on fire. 19 soldiers are already reported dead and some 30 injured. 13 of those reportedly killed were in two tents that caught fire. The four terrorists, all foreigners, were eventually gunned down. All four were carrying items with Pakistani markings including map, GPS, explosives (RDX and TNT), a matrix sheet of codes and notes in Pashto besides AK 47 rifles and under-barrel grenade launchers. This is not the first time that Pakistan has used JeM to attack India.
Militants attack an Indian army base
http://www.economist.com/comment/3250798#comment-3250798
Indian leaders blame Pakistan for the deadliest such incident in the past quarter century
The Economist welcomes your views. Please stay on topic and be respectful of other readers.
War is very much an option for India. Nukes or no nukes. All it requires is political will and the willingness to win in accordance with military imperative.
It can be done with existing resources. This requires focused intelligence, planning, logistics and follow through to defined conclusion without brooking interference from Left-Liberals and other Anti Nationals inside India or outside India.
Giving Pakistan (aka Islam) the quietus, is an economic imperative too, as stability is essential for development. But remember that Pakistan and every Mosque inside India are Proxies of Islam.
It was Pakistan that brokered the entente cordiale between China and the US and it was the US that facilitated Pakistan to become a Nuclear power through South Africa. Pakistan (A.Q.Khan) procured its enrichment centrifuges from the same Dutch Source as US Ally Apartheid South Africa did and helped fashion both it own and Israel's clandestine bombs. Saudi Arabia financed the entire caper. The entire A. Q. Khan story has been conveniently obfuscated by Pakistan's staunch and loyal ally, the United States and its NATO poodles. This has its roots in the US-NATO-Sunni Axis that was forged by Nixon, Kissinger and Sheikh Yamani. China later helped Pakistan (and North Korea) with missiles as well as tactical (battle field) nuclear weapons and other weapon (fighters, stealth etc) programs.
After terror attack in Uri staged by Pakistan, how can India hold a rogue state accountable?
Manmohan Bahadur
In an article in Dawn, published just hours before 'Uri' happened, Munir Akram, a former Pakistani ambassador to the UN, has written about the pressure being brought on Pakistan in Washington and said that, "Hopefully, the next US administration will carefully review the implications of sanctioning Pakistan – chaos in Afghanistan, end of counterterrorism, non-proliferation and arms control cooperation and a heightened danger of an India-Pakistan conflict – and come to the conclusion that coercion is not an option in the conduct of relations with Pakistan." This should certainly go down in textbooks of international relations as a perfect example of blackmail by a rogue state.
Now that Pakistan has thrown the gauntlet by staging 'Uri', it is time to see how events pan out. The setting is exactly how all war games, whether conducted in India or abroad, involving the two nations envisage hostilities to commence – a major terrorist strike, after several smaller ones, that inflames public opinion to such an extent that enormous pressure is brought on Indian political leadership to 'punish Pakistan.'
The timing is important. Jammu & Kashmir has been under curfew for a prolonged period and Pakistan is raising the issue in international fora. PM Nawaz Sharif is in New York and going to address the UN General Assembly where world leaders would be present. While Pakistan will blame Uri on non-state actors not under its control, any military riposte by India would be projected as action by a state against another. Even as diplomatic traffic burns the airwaves to calm things down, Indian intelligence agencies would be gathering evidence to link the Uri terrorists to Pakistan and its armed forces would be conveying available options to the government.
A Campaign Of Terror: The Pakistanis may never have Kashmir, but their violence has transformed it
C Christine Fair
Feigning outrage at the killing of Pakistan-backed Hizbul Mujahideen commanderBurhan Wani, Pakistan's civilian-led government decried his killing by Indian security forces as "deplorable and condemnable". This group is considered to be a terrorist organisation by the United States, the European Union, and India alike. This conniption once again exposed Pakistan's unstinting support for the zoo of Islamist terrorists that it uses to achieve its foreign policy objectives in India, Afghanistan and elsewhere.
The timing of this charade is not coincidental: it is contemporaneous with mounting criticisms over Pakistani human rights abuses in Balochistan as it tries to crush any and all opposition to the infamous "China Pakistan Economic Corridor". Pakistan explicitly counters criticism over its activities in Balochistan with reference to Indian security force's killings in Kashmir. This is yet another Pakistani false equivalence.
It must be said bluntly that in Kashmir, Pakistan has no legal equities. Neither theIndian Independence Act of 1947 nor the Radcliffe Boundary Commission accord Pakistan any right to Kashmir. As is well-known, the Maharaja of Kashmir Hari Singh only acceded to India after Pakistan dispatched irregular forces to seize the terrain by force.
As the work of Shuja Nawaz – the brother of a deceased army chief – makes clear, these were not non-state actors. In its effort to seize Kashmir through warfare in 1947-48, 1965 and 1999 and by supporting a menagerie of terrorists since 1947 and an intense proxy war since 1989, Pakistan has demonstrated that it actually has little regard for the Kashmiris themselves.
India Is Building Up 36.87-Million-Barrel Strategic Oil Reserve; Iran And Iraq Emerge As Large Suppliers
Swarajya Staff
India is importing six million barrels of oil from Iran to stock up its emergency oil reserves. These will be stored in vast underground caverns across the country. The total capacity of these reserves - around 36.87 million barrels - will be enough to cover India's oil demand for two weeks.
India went in for this deal with Tehran after negotiations with the United Arab Emirates went nowhere. This now comes at a time when India's oil import from Iran has reached its highest in fifteen years.
The Iranian Mix crude will come from National Iranian Co in October and November this year. It will be stocked up in the storage facility in Mangaluru, the chief port city of Karnataka, and occupy half of its capacity.
Meanwhile, the 9.75-million-barrel strategic storage facility in Vizag is being filled up with oil imported from Iraq.
India's attempts to lease part of its reserve storage space to Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) has not taken off despite continued negotiations.
What the Soviet Defeat in Afghanistan Tells Us about Syria
Vince Tumminello
"If fundamentalism comes to Afghanistan, war will continue for many more years. Afghanistan will be turned into a center for terrorism." These words, spoken on March 10, 1992, through an overwhelmed translator, stand in time as the final plea of a man at the helm of a dying regime.
The speaker was Dr. Mohammad Najibullah Ahmadzai, the former head of the state intelligence service, leader of the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), and President of Afghanistan. He was also the last client of the Soviet Union, which provided direct military and monetary support to the PDPA government until the Soviet withdrawal in February 1989 (and indirect support after).
Najibullah was widely considered a Soviet stooge. He had some initial successes in restoring his reputation among some Afghan civilians and won several military victories against the mujahedeen resistance as they struggled to convert their approach from guerrilla to conventional. By March 1992, none of that mattered. A loosely knit collection of mujahedeen factions surrounded Kabul, poised to crush the remains of the PDPA government.
On April 17, 1992, a palace coup preempted a formal transition of power, and Najibullah absconded to a UN compound in the city. Four years later, abandoned by a now-defunct superpower, he would be tortured, castrated, dragged through the streets, and hung from a traffic light by invading Taliban forces.
Today, echoes of the Afghan-Soviet struggle have begun to re-emerge in Syria, challenging the Putin-Assad alliance and the future of Syrian governance. The story of how hundreds of competing mujahedeen commanders united to defeat the Soviet-backed PDPA holds many lessons for those competing in the "New Great Game." It may also hold the key for how the United States can gain back strategic leverage against its geopolitical foes, end the civil war, and avoid the chaos of post-Cold War Afghanistan. The lessons are simple:
The terrorist attack on the Indian Air Force (IAF) base at Pathankot in January this year too was the handiwork of JeM, as also terror attacks in Gurdaspur and Pampore. JeM and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) are also operating with impunity in Afghanistan as clearly brought out in the report release this July by the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) headed by Tadamichi Yamamoto
If India has to hit terror factories in Pakistan, be ready for a war with China!
http://kiranasis.blogspot.in/2016/09/if-india-has-to-hit-terror-factories-in.html?m=1
It is about 32 hours since the attack on Uri army camp in India, by Pakistani terrorists. There is tremendous amount of anger in India, specifically in the sections of society which I normally don't see overreact on social media.
This was the front page of paper at my home - "We have had enough!"
Front page of New Indian Xpress, the day after Uri Attack
The overwhelming majority are screaming - Dear Prime Minister.. do something. do quickly..
That "do" can be full fledged war.
It can be economic blockade.
It can be water stoppage for Sindhu and five rivers of Punjab going into Pakistan.
It can be surgical strikes inside Pakistan like India did inside Myanmar last year.
It can be as many as there are opinions on social media, papers and TV.
But the big question is.. Can India attack Pakistan this week?
I am sure there is military will power.
I am sure there would be enough political will power.
I am sure India has plenty of financial cushion to do this. (Pakistan's GDP is smaller than just one state's in India - Maharashtra)
I am sure internally there won't be much opposition to India for a small scale surgical strike.
Prachanda's India Visit: China Is Angry, Very Angry About India-Nepal Bonhomie
In an article published by the Global Times, the hawkish mouthpiece of China's ruling establishment, the writer targeted Nepal's newly-appointed Prime Minister of tricking China and putting Kathmandu's relations with Beijing on the back-burner.
In the article, the writer accuses Nepali politicians of being short-sighted and lacking 'morality, justice and integrity.' Can Nepal's attempt to improve relations with India be termed short-sightedness? Where do 'morality, justice and integrity' take refuge when China finds itself entangled hands-and-tail with a nation that sponsors terror? Further, the writer states that a nation's foreign policy should not be based on national interests. What should foreign policy be based on if not on the country's national interest? The writer talks about the opportunism of Nepali politicians. What is more opportunistic than trying to drift a country away from its all-weather ally? The writer seems to have lost objectivity.
The crisis in Nepal, that emerged following the Madhesi movement, was diffused carefully by the government in New Delhi. The tools used, as always, were sensible diplomacy and engagement. Prachanda's successful visit to New Delhi and the developments surrounding this visit confirmed the goodwill in India-Nepal relations. For China, this was an opportunity lost. While Beijing tried hard, it lost a chance to drift Kathmandu away from India.
Angry at Prachanda's successful India visit, China cancelled President Xi's visit to Nepal. The disappointment is palpable.
If Chinese Weapons Are So Great, Why Won't Anyone Buy Them?
Richard A. Bitzinger
If Chinese weapons are so great, how come hardly anyone wants them?
Though most Chinese arms are better than what they used to be, Western, Russian, and Israeli weapons systems still outclass them. Most of what China sells is low-end kit and its main arms buyers are from South Asia and Africa. To remain a leading arms exporter, Beijing needs to come up with more competitive products and expand its customer base.
One of the frequent arguments made about China's 20-year-long military buildup is that its locally produced weapons are better than they used to be. To a certain extent this is true, if hardly surprising. Relatively modern systems, such as the J-10 fighter jet, the Yuan-class submarine, and the Type-99 main battle tank, are certainly superior to the weapons systems they replaced, that is, the J-7, theMing-class sub, and the Type-59 tank – all basically copies of Soviet weaponsdating back to the 1950s. They could not help but be better.
China's advanced fighter jet, JF-17, has so far been purchased only by Pakistan
At the same time, it is true that some current Chinese arms are highly competitive with their Western or Russian counterparts. These include unmanned aerial vehicles, anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, and lightweight trainer jets. But all this raises an important point: if Chinese weapons are supposed to be so great, how come hardly any other country wants to buy them?
The Truth about Foreign-Born Domestic Terrorists
Alex Nowrasteh
There were two potential terrorist attacks this weekend. The first was a stabbing-rampage by Dahir Adan in a Minnesota mall that injured several people but didn't kill anyone. Adan was shot dead by off duty part-time police officer Jason Falconer. Shortly thereafter ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack. The second attack was a bombing in New York's Chelsea neighborhood and an attempted bombing in Seaside Park, New Jersey—the former woundedtwenty-nine people. The suspect of the bombings is twenty-eight-year-old Ahmad Khan Rahami.
These two men share many characteristics: their Islamic faith, sex and age are nearly identical. They were also both born abroad. Adan immigrated to the United States with his parents when he was two years old, according to theWashington Post. Rahami was a naturalized citizen who was born in Afghanistan but it is unclear when and what visa he used to arrive.
Neither of the attacks this last weekend succeeded in killing anybody but they do fit into a few patterns I identify in a new paper from the Cato Institute, which catalogues all foreign-born terrorists from 1975 to the end of 2015, how many people they killed and what visa they used to enter the country. Two facts about these terrorists are related to patterns I uncovered.
First, last weekend's terrorists didn't kill anyone in their attacks. During the time period I studied, 74 percent of all foreign-born terrorists did not murder anyone. We should be grateful that they are so incompetent.
Why Arab States Have Failed
Mohammed Ayoob
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/why-arab-states-have-failed-17734?page=show
The recent killing of Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, ISIS's propaganda chief, has been touted as a great success by the countries trying to decimate ISIS capabilities. It was seen as such a great achievement that both the United States and Russia claimed that their air attacks were responsible for his death. The forces ranged against ISIS—the United States, Turkey, the Iraqi government and Shia militias, the Syrian Kurds, Iran, and Russia—have also been chipping away at the territory controlled by ISIS despite the rifts and rivalries among them.According to one estimate, ISIS has lost a quarter of the territory it controlled at the zenith of its success.
However, denigrating ISIS's capabilities and recapturing lost territory in Syria and Iraq will not solve the problem of anarchy and violence in these countries. The problem underlying the emergence of violent, transnational jihadi forces is the lack of state capacity in these countries. In other words, it is the failure of states to provide adequate security to their populations and to regulate intra-societal interactions in a predictable manner that has provided the space for groups such as Al Qaeda and ISIS to flourish in Iraq, Libya and Syria. These groups buy the loyalties of populations that they aspire to control by, among other things, invoking religious militancy. Furthermore, as the ISIS example demonstrates, they set up surrogate state structures to provide a degree of security to people willing to provide them with men and money, in exchange for protection.
The proliferation of sectarian and ethnic rivalries and conflicts in these states can also be traced to the same cause. For, when states fail to perform their primary task—namely, provide security to their populations—individuals and groups look for alternative protection rackets and security providers. Sectarian and ethnic entrepreneurs take over the functions of state agencies, and segments of the citizenry transfer loyalties and resources to them in exchange for protection and security. This also unleashes competition among sectarian and ethnic groups for the limited resources available, andeventually leads to the intensification of inter-sectarian and interethnic conflicts, if not all-out war.
ISIS Is Full of Pragmatic Ideologues
Craig Noyes
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/isis-full-pragmatic-ideologues-17760?page=show
Over two years ago, Islamic State invested its ideological legitimacy in a caliphate. Its total state experiment in Syria and Iraq embodied the group's strategic ambitions. More recently, much has been made of Islamic State's territorial contraction and decline in foreign fighter recruitment. Many analysts, policymakers, and commentators interpret its reversion to guerrilla tactics in Iraq—as well as its metastasizing global terrorism network—as signs of weakness. Others are captivated by the threat of a burgeoning cyber caliphate. It is important to identify and mitigate the threats posed by these shifting trends. However, they must not distract us from Islamic State's grand strategic goals of building a takfirist caliphate.
Islamic State explicitly states its ideological intentions time and time again, including in an issue of its English language magazine, Dabiq. Such propaganda is complemented by other indicators of Islamic State's ambitions, such as its investment in education and youth indoctrination. These reveal a group intent on redefining Islam in its image, extinguishing all other interpretations of the religion, and compelling everyone within reach to submit to its will. Policymakers and analysts are wise to maintain focus on these variables. We must not forget the long-term, cultural threats posed by the group.
Case study analyses of Islamic State's governance indicate the group's operational flexibility. A recent paper published in Small Wars Journaldelves further into this research. The author concludes that Islamic State is a resilient and adaptive group whose operational decision-making is based on efficacy rather than ideology. It adopts economic models, security apparatus designs, and bureaucratic procedures regardless of provenance. Identifying these instances of Islamic State's ideological hypocrisies is helpful. Broadcasting the group's opportunistic impurities is one way to delegitimize the movement and dissuade prospective recruits from joining.
New York Bombing: Pakistan Radicalised Ahmad Khan; An Indian American Helped Police Nab Him
The Chelsea bombing suspect, Ahmad Khan Rahami, wanted in connection with the 17 Septemeber blast that rocked Manhattan, is now in police custody. He was arrested from New Jersey after a shootout.
Harinder Bains, an Indian American and the owner of Merdie's Tavern in Linden, New Jersey, told CNN that he spotted Rahami sleeping in the doorway of his bar Monday morning and called the police. Bains recognised Rahami from the photos he saw on CNN of the suspect.
The bombing in the Chelsea district on Saturday night injured 29 people. A backpack full of unexploded bombs was later found in New Jersey.
According to law enforcement officials, a fingerprint collected from an unexploded device in New Jersey was key in nailing Rahami. Officials are now focusing on determining if he acted alone or had some help.
CNN tells us that Rahami majored in criminal justice at Middlesex County College in Edison, New Jersey. His family runs a chicken store which they kept open 24/7 in violation of the city's ordinance and this led to clashes with the community.
Afghanistan-born American, Rahami made frequent trips to Pakistan which many law enforcement officials believe helped radicalise him. He visited Karachi in 2005. Six years later, he travelled to Quetta, a Taliban stronghold. He married a Pakistani woman there. He also made a trip to Kandahar, Afghanistan during his Pakistan trip. In 2013, he went back to Pakistan and stayed there for over a year.
Is fear of change at the root of Europe's anti-immigrant backlash?
Matthew Groh and Tara Vishwanath
For Syrian refugees, Europe is the land of hopes, dreams, and contradictions. On one hand, the job opportunities, formalized asylum processes, and relatively generous resettlement programs in countries such as Germany and Sweden are much preferred to United Nations refugee camps in Jordan or informal settlements in Lebanon. On the other hand, Europe has the strongest anti-immigration attitudes in the world. Even before the first major influx of Syrians in 2015, Europeans were more likely than people from any other continent to be opposed to immigration, according to Gallup opinion research.
Today, over one million Syrian refugees live in Europe, and 4.4 million live in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. To better understand refugees' diversity of experience and opinions towards them, we fielded an opinion survey across Europe and the Middle East. We sought to answer: What drives negative opinions on immigrants and refugees? Are people worried that immigrants will take their jobs, change their culture, or create security problems? Do negative opinions of host country residents affect where Syrian refugees want to migrate? Do Syrians face similar or different problems across destination countries?
Previous research has focused on how demographics explain public opinions. Pew's Global Attitudes Survey and research using data from the British Social Attitudes Surveys reveal that being male, white, conservative, and uneducated are consistently associated with negative attitudes towards immigration. We explore how environmental factors affect attitudes to immigration.
Getting to know your neighbor
Term Limits for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Ratification?
John Deutch
In 2009, in Prague, President Obama pledged his administration would "immediately and aggressively pursue U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty" (CTBT). This August, it was reported that since there was no progress in seven years, the president would seek a United Nations Security Council resolution that calls for an end to nuclear testing. This action only temporarily bypasses a debate on ratification in the U.S. Senate, and will nevertheless open a new round in the already bloody fight between supporters and opponents of the CTBT. In the unlikely event that the Senate takes up the CTBT debate in the first two years of the next administration, the probable outcome is still no ratification. A path has not been found to bridge the bitter divide between those who support and those who oppose passage of the CTBT.
Supporters believe that U.S. adoption of the CTBT will slow the spread of nuclear weapons and strengthen the resolve of Non-Proliferation Treaty signatories to take robust actions against those who seek to acquire weapons, without risking the safety or reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. Supporters correctly underscore the cumulative risk that the existence of any nuclear weapons presents for accident, unauthorized use and theft. Opponents believe that with appropriate measures, these risks are acceptable compared to foregoing nuclear testing forever in an uncertain world. Opponents also doubt that U.S. accession to the treaty will dissuade some countries, such as North Korea, or subnational groups, such as ISIS, from pursuing the bomb.
The CTBT debate has gone on so long and with such intensity that it is hard to avoid the impression that the proponents and opponents would rather fight than win. It has become a symbolic issue. Proponents no longer claim that testing is necessary for a country to acquire or be perceived to have acquired a nuclear capability—e.g., Israel. Opponents have greatly reduced their concern about CTBT "cheating" (the clandestine testing of a low-yield nuclear device in an underground cavity that is seismically decoupled from the surrounding earth), due to the deployment and operation of the nuclear global seismic detection network.
U.S. Military Unhappy About the 'Mission Creep' in Syria
Andrew Tilghman
U.S. military commanders are 'pissed off' about the mission creep in Syria
The deal for U.S. military cooperation with Russia would expand the current mission in Syria far beyond it's exclusive focus on the Islamic State group.
And the Pentagon is not happy about it.
The agreement forged by Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart could, for the first time, broaden the American-led air campaign's target list to include al Nusra, the notorious al Qaida-linked group that is a major actor in the multi-sided Syrian civil war. Until now, the two-year-old U.S. air campaign in Syria has been limited to ISIS.
"This could be massive mission creep," said Josh Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. "The military is pissed off because they're being asked to do two jobs now. They were asked to do one job, which is kill ISIS. Now John Kerry is asking them to do another job, which is cooperate with Russia and kill al Nusra."
The cease-fire deal reached Sept. 9 calls for the two former Cold War rivals to set up a joint facility for sharing intelligence and coordinating airstrikes against ISIS and al Nusra. The key requirement is adherence to a seven-day cease fire that calls on the Syrian regime and Russia to halt attacks around the city of Alleppo, which has experienced some of the war's most horrific violence, and allow for sustained delivery of humanitarian aid.
Why the Powell Email Controversy Shows That Big Government Doesn't Work
Kristofer Harrison
The insults against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have hogged the headlines about Secretary Powell's leaked emails. Yet buried in the release lays a fascinating exchange about Ambassador Paul Bremer, who served as President Bush's Presidential Envoy to Iraq. Superficially, Powell's email exchanges are about disbanding the Iraqi army and de-Baathification. More significantly, they reveal two issues deserving examination: White House leadership and how the Iraq experiment glossed over conservative small government orthodoxy.
Technically, Paul Bremer worked for the Defense Department. In reality, defense officials felt that he did not answer to them and was instead the White House representative to the Defense Department. Powell's emails gloss over this detail. Powell complains about major Pentagon policy failures...which no Pentagon official believed came from the Defense Department.
It underscores the terribly undisciplined nature of Bush administration policy decision-making. Fundamental questions hung in the air. Who was in charge of the war, for example? Yes, everyone claims to have had the lead on this policy or that; or, more accurately, all complained that the "other guy" had the pen. Powell made precisely this point, "Bremer worked for him. . . It wasn't State, it was the President and the guy who reported to Paul [Wolfowitz]."
How is it that thirteen years after the supposedly critical decision of disbanding the Iraqi army our Secretaries of Defense and State and the national security advisor still bicker about who made it? Indeed, a legal answer exists about who reported to whom, but, clearly, the principals disagreed—and still do—about who made policy decisions. The situation groaned for White House intervention, yet, too often, the White House stood on the sidelines. The Defense and State Departments experienced this situation on issue after issue.
Cyber attack threats to be focus of Australia's intelligence agencies review
The rising threat posed by cyber attacks is set to be the focus of a review of Australia's intelligence agencies.
The nation's six intelligence agencies will be subject to the probe, which the Government has said will ensure they can appropriately respond to security threats.
The agencies involved include ASIS (Australian Secret Intelligence Service), ASIO (Australian Secret Intelligence Organisation) and the Australian Signals Directorate.
National security officials said attacks on sensitive Australian computer networks were occurring on a daily basis, and were being carried out by hackers sponsored by foreign powers — especially China.
In recent times, China and Russia have stepped up their cyber warfare activities with Australia among their targets.
Experts have also pointed to jihadists returning from Syria and Iraq as the other major threat facing the country.
Defence Minister Marise Payne spoke to AM this morning and said one of the focuses of the review would "most certainly go to changes in technology".
"[The changes] … are happening extremely rapidly and [have elevated] the challenges in terms of intelligence collection and analysis even higher than they have been previously," she said.
TECH ADVANCES MAKE CYBERSPACE MOST LIKELY THREAT
WashPost Makes History: First Paper to Call for Prosecution of Its Own Source (After Accepting Pulitzer)
Three of the four media outlets that received and published large numbers of secret NSA documents provided by Edward Snowden — The Guardian,the New York Times, and The Intercept –– have called for the U.S. government to allow the NSA whistleblower to return to the U.S. with no charges. That's the normal course for a news organization, which owes its sources duties of protection, and which — by virtue of accepting the source's materials and then publishing them — implicitly declares the source's information to be in the public interest.
But not the Washington Post. In the face of a growing ACLU and Amnesty-led campaign to secure a pardon for Snowden, timed to this weekend's release of the Oliver Stone biopic "Snowden," the Post editorial page today not only argued in opposition to a pardon, but explicitly demanded that Snowden — the paper's own source — stand trial on espionage charges or, as a "second-best solution," accept "a measure of criminal responsibility for his excesses and the U.S. government offers a measure of leniency."
In doing so, the Washington Post has achieved an ignominious feat in U.S. media history: the first-ever paper to explicitly editorialize for the criminal prosecution of its own source — one on whose back the paper won and eagerly accepted a Pulitzer Prize for Public Service. But even more staggering than this act of journalistic treachery against the paper's own source are the claims made to justify it.
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GERMANY EMBRACES REALPOLITIK ONCE MORE
THE POST-COUP PURGE OF TURKEY'S AIR FORCE
Armed forces chiefs confirm sense of Obama distrust
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► Jul 04