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Experts Comment on AI Malicious Use and Challenges to International Psychological Security
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Topic: International security, Technology
Type: Columns - Cybercolumn
(votes: 3, rating: 5)
Evgeny Pashentsev
DSc., Professor, Leading Researcher, Institute of Contemporary International Studies, Diplomatic Academy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
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This project demonstrates limited but real avenues for international cooperation in a new, very important, and yet extremely problematic area of interdisciplinary research that is taking its first steps: MUAI and IPS. In the survey, experts expressed coinciding, vastly different, and even mutually exclusive points of view.
It is necessary to draw attention to some of the phenomena and trends contributing to the growth of MUAI. The largest companies in the field of high technology actively use AI to further their narrow corporate interests, which quite often run counter to the interests of the society. Clearly, the companies that have access to large amounts of data to power AI are leaders of AI development. The core group in the AI field includes GAFAM—Google (Alphabet), Apple, Facebook (Meta), Amazon, and Microsoft, also known as the Big Five. $7.5 trillion: that was the combined market capitalization of GAFAM at the end of 2020, according to the Wall Street Journal estimate. Although technology has long been the most trusted sector, this positive perception has suffered more than that in any other sector over the past ten years. Thus, the American GAFAM tech giants have been accused in the EU of tax evasion, suppressing competition, stealing media content, and threatening democracy by spreading fake news.
In December 2021, the International Center for Social and Political Studies and Consulting published the report "Experts on the Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence and Challenges to International Psychological Security", penned by this author. This report stems from the implementation of the research project "Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence and Challenges to Psychological Security in Northeast Asia" (21-514-92001) funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) and the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS). The responses garnered from a targeted survey of nineteen experts from ten countries and the subsequent analysis of their feedback aim to bring to light the most serious threats to international information-psychological security (IPS) through malicious use of artificial intelligence (MUAI) and determine how dangerous these threats are, which measures should be used to neutralize them, and identify the prospects for international cooperation in this area. This publication attempts to determine whether MUAI will increase the threat level of IPS by 2030. The publication devotes special attention to the situation in Northeast Asia (NEA).
The experts' answers revealed wide vistas of capabilities possessed by MUAI to threaten the IPS of individuals, groups, nations, and the whole of humankind. The experts also recognized (directly or indirectly) the presence of antisocial actors who are ready to have such an impact. None of the experts blamed MUAI on AI as such. Unfortunately, in the society, including in the leading countries in AI development, there are major yet completely unfounded concerns about AI. This may subsequently cause an emergence of neo-Luddites (for example, in connection with the further rapid growth of automation and the growth of the quantitative and qualitative capabilities of AI). The experts in both social and technical sciences have fundamentally similar approaches to defining the MUAI threat. Their responses list both technologies of psychological influence utilized through MUAI and the areas of antisocial activity where MUAI is or may be a tool directed against the IPS of the society (activities of criminal organizations, including terrorists; targeted malicious influence on the results of elections and referendums; etc.).
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Most of the experts note a substantial or strong influence of MUAI on the spread of IPS threats today. It is worth noting that none of the experts denied such influence; the point of divergence was the extent of this influence. Experts differed in their assessments, which is probably partly due to the limited statistical base of MUAI in the field of IPS. When asked about the situation in 2030, ten (≈53%) experts answered that MUAI will "significantly" raise threats to international IPS and nine (≈47%) responded "noticeably." No one chose the "only slightly" option, let alone "no influence". This denotes the need to take preventive measures against a negative scenario. But the worst-case scenario stems not from the prospect of the further development of AI technologies (which open up great opportunities for social progress for humanity), but from the high probability of deepening the crises of modern society, strengthening the role of antisocial actors. The latter naturally leads to increased MUAI risks, including those in the sphere of IPS.
This project demonstrates limited but real avenues for international cooperation in a new, very important, and yet extremely problematic area of interdisciplinary research that is taking its first steps: MUAI and IPS. In the survey, experts expressed coinciding, vastly different, and even mutually exclusive points of view, which is understandable given the novelty and specificity of the issues in question. Looking at the regional aspect of the MUAI and IPS problem through the prism of the Northeast Asia provided a valuable cross-section of data on the nature and dynamics of the formation of a new type of threat. The leading NEA countries, due to their high level of development and implementation of AI, face serious problems in some areas of MUAI (malicious use of deepfakes, emerging negative aspects of computer gaming with the rising use of AI, etc.).
I believe that it is necessary to draw attention to some of the phenomena and trends contributing to the growth of MUAI. The largest companies in the field of high technology actively use AI to further their narrow corporate interests, which quite often run counter to the interests of the society. Clearly, the companies that have access to large amounts of data to power AI are leaders of AI development. The core group in the AI field includes GAFAM—Google (Alphabet), Apple, Facebook (Meta), Amazon, and Microsoft, also known as the Big Five. $7.5 trillion: that was the combined market capitalization of GAFAM at the end of 2020, according to the Wall Street Journal estimate. Although technology has long been the most trusted sector, this positive perception has suffered more than that in any other sector over the past ten years. Thus, the American GAFAM tech giants have been accused in the EU of tax evasion, suppressing competition, stealing media content, and threatening democracy by spreading fake news.
With the dire economic problems ongoing, the impoverishment of hundreds of millions of people, the rapid concentration of global wealth in the hands of a minority, the arms race, and intense geopolitical contradictions, the fight of MUAI against IPS led by various anti-social actors can play an extremely negative and dangerous role. Therefore, states, especially those with leading scientific and technological capabilities, can and should cooperate to prevent anti-social actors from using information technologies based on ever-improving new AI capabilities.
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