Donate to I&I
Subscribe to I&I
Joe Walsh 2020
Memo to Joe Walsh: Primary Challengers Never Win, And Neither Does Their Party
John Merline
Any Republican supporting a primary challenge against President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination in 2020, if it is successful or even if it just hampers the primary process, is virtually guaranteeing the next president will be a Democrat.
And with it, Democrats will once again have all the trappings of the presidency, including nominating the next Supreme Court justices, signing laws and conducting foreign relations.
In modern U.S. history of presidential elections since the nation's first political primaries in 1912, no sitting president has ever been denied his party's nomination at a nominating convention whilst standing for reelection. 2020 will be no different, wherein the Republican nominee for president will almost certainly be Donald Trump once again.
Here's another feature of those contests: Every single one of the one-term presidents of the 20th Century — William Howard Taft in 1912, Herbert Hoover in 1932, Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 — all faced strong primary challenges.
Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson both withdrew their candidacies from the elections of 1952 and 1968 respectively in the face of a strong primary challengers. Truman lostthe 1952 New Hampshire primary and Johnson barely won the 1968 New Hampshire primary. One can quibble about whether these count as being ousted or not but they were not on the ballots at the conventions because they were not contesting the conventions at that point. They forfeited. Both conventions ended up being brokered, with none of the prime vote getters in the primaries obtaining the nomination.
Dwight D. Eisenhower and Richard Nixon both won the contests for open seats vacated by the incumbent presidents in 1952 and 1968, respectively.
As for the other one-termers, Taft was defeated by Woodrow Wilson after gaining fewer votes than Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 primaries, Herbert Hoover was defeated by Franklin Roosevelt after gaining fewer votes than Joseph France in the 1932 primaries, Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter after beating Ronald Reagan in the contested 1976 primaries, Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan after beating Ted Kennedy in the contested 1980 primaries and George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton after beating Pat Buchanan in the contested 1992 primaries.
In every one of these instances, the opposition party won. 100 percent of the time, every single time. It's a great way to lose.
Moreover, the years there were significant primary challenges and the one-term president was ousted, the opposition party fared very well in down-ballot congressional races. In 1912, 1932, 1976 and 1992, Democrats won the trifecta of the presidency, the House and Senate. In 1952, Republicans won the presidency, House and Senate, and in 1980, Republicans won the presidency and the Senate, and picked up seats in the House. The outlier is 1968, where Republicans won the presidency but only made gains in the House and Senate.
Now, not all primary challenges are fatal. Oftentimes, they are inconsequential insofar as incumbents face no-name challengers on the ballot but almost nobody votes for them. And with 86 percent approval among Republicans for example in the latest Politico tracking poll, Trump might not have much to worry about at the moment. So, there could be a challenge and perhaps Trump simply wipes the floor with them in the primary while Democrats have a close primary and so Trump actually goes on to win the general election with momentum.
That's the lesson of modern political history. Incumbent presidents who run relatively unopposed for their party's nomination tend to get reelected. Period.
Making such a gambit an unnecessary risk for the GOP, even if they were worried about this or that poll, which at 15 months out from the election are meaningless at this stage of the game. The bottom line is if Republicans want to hold the White House and not suffer damage in congressional races, Trump is their best bet.
This where true believers will contend with predictable hand wavery like the loser at the casino, "But this time is different!"
No, it's not.
When it comes to 2020, whether talking about Joe Walsh or William Weld or whoever else foolishly tosses their hats in the ring on the Republican side, likely all a primary challenge would do is fail and potentially weaken the incumbent Trump. That will increase the odds dramatically Democrats win the next election and choose the next Supreme Court justices, probably would have down-ballot implications as well, winning Congress and passing the Green New Deal, socialized medicine, universal income and the rest of their political program.
All of which make such a primary challenge of Trump ill-advised, that is, if Republicans are in the business of winning elections.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
Reprinted with permission.
Note to Readers: Issues & Insights is a new site launched by the seasoned journalists behind the legendary IBD Editorials page. Our mission is to use our decades of experience to provide timely, fact-based reporting and deeply informed analysis on the news of the day.
We're doing this on a voluntary basis because we think our approach to commentary is sorely lacking both in today's mainstream media and on the internet. If you like what you see, feel free to click the Tip Jar over on the right sidebar. And be sure to tell your friends!
We Could Use Your Help
Issues & Insights was founded by seasoned journalists of the IBD Editorials page. Our mission is to provide timely, fact-based reporting and deeply informed analysis on the news of the day -- without fear or favor.
We're doing this on a voluntary basis because we believe in a free press, and because we aren't afraid to tell the truth, even if it means being targeted by the left. Revenue from ads on the site help, but your support will truly make a difference in keeping our mission going. If you like what you see, feel free to visit our Donations Page by clicking here. And be sure to tell your friends!
You can also subscribe to I&I: It's free!
Just enter your email address below to get started.
Yes, I Want To Subscribe to I&I
Election 2020 Joe Walsh primary challenge Trump re-election
Veteran journalist John Merline was Deputy Editor of Commentary and Opinion at Investor's Business Daily. Before IBD, he launched and edited the Opinion section of AOL News, and was a member of the editorial board of USA Today, where he continues to be a regular contributor. He's been published in the Washington Post, National Review, Detroit News, Cleveland Plain Dealer, Forbes, and numerous other publications. He is regular commentator on the One America News Network and on local talk radio. He got his start in journalism under the tutelage of M. Stanton Evans.
Dems Aim To Win Back Working Class With … A Meat Tax?
Gillibrand Has Launched Part 2 Of Her VP Bid
Don McCoy says:
Never Trumprs all see the election as an opportunity because they've all bought into the Democrat canard that "nobody" likes Trump! This is just ANOTHER way for RINOs to throw a wrench into the party. They'll just lose!
Who Shot Ashli Babbitt? And Why Is This A State Secret?
I & I Editorial Board
What If The NCAA Finals Were Run Like The 2020 Election?
Trump's Top-10 Triumphs: A Last Look At A Remarkable Presidency
Help us fight for honesty in journalism and against the tyranny of the left. Issues & Insights is published by the editors of what once was Investor's Business Daily's award-winning opinion pages. If you like what you see, leave a donation by clicking on the Tip Jar image above. You can also set up regular donations if you like. Ad revenue helps, but your support will truly make a difference. (Please note that we are not set up as a charitable organization, so donations aren't tax deductible.) Thank you!
Subscribe to Issues & Insights via Email
Enter your email address to subscribe to I&I and you can receive notifications of new articles in your email. It's simple, and free.
About Issues & Insights
Issues & Insights is run by the seasoned journalists behind the legendary IBD Editorials page. Our goal is to bring our decades of combined journalism experience to help readers understand the top issues of the day. We're doing this on a voluntary basis, because we believe the nation needs the kind of cogent, rational, data-driven, fact-based commentary that we can provide.
contact@issuesinsights.com
Most-Read Articles
Biden Is Out Of Touch With Reality On Inflation
America's U-Haul Revolution
What We're Reading: Dems' Election Legislation Doomed, Let Djokovic Play, Dividin' Biden … And More
Biden's Empty-Shelf America Is A Country Boris Yeltsin Wouldn't Recognize
The Biden Variant — Not Omicron — Is Behind The Shortages Everywhere
What We're Reading: Bidenomics Fail, Truth About COVID, Teachers Union Edupocalypse . . . And More
What The Climate Scare And Pandemic Fearmongering Have In Common
We Need More 'Toxic Masculinity'
Other Sites We Like
Cato @ Liberty
Foundation for Economic Education
Just Facts Daily
Las Vegas Review Journal Opinion (home of Michael Ramirez)
Michael Fumento
Michael Ramirez Cartoons
Pacific Research Institute | Right by the Bay
Rush Limbaugh Show
TIPP Poll — America's Most Accurate Pollster
Weaselzippers
Copyright © 2022 Issues & Insights LLC. Created by Meks. Powered by WordPress.com.