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The Ukraine thingy
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thejeff Jul 18, 2014, 11:47 am
Kevin Mack wrote:
Uh maybe I'm just showing utter naivity here but is it possible that it hasent been shot down and instead crashed for some unrelated reaspn?
Not really. Not unless there's a lot of outright lying going on. Probably from both Russia and the US.
The debris is scattered, so it was definitely a mid-air explosion.
pres man Jul 18, 2014, 04:48 pm
Evidently the rebel leader has seen the movie Millennium, and assumes the rest of us have not.
Angstspawn Jul 18, 2014, 04:50 pm
The more facts we get the more it confirms the plane was shot by ukrainian separatists.
If I was Russia I would create a malaysian terrorist group (like the Malaysian Islamic Front) to explain the plane was bombed.
Then separatists will court-martialed those who expressed themselves on Facebook or on the phone (it will look like a real army) and the judgement will show they lied, pretending they shot a plane that exploded believing first it was a ukrainian military plane that exploded because of some malfunction.
Then I'd reorganized and falsify the crime scene, giving back one flight recorder (the one with the voices) pretending the other one was destroyed.
If no one serious will ever believe it, giving the same explanation again and again, I will be able to create the doubt among many people that the plane was victim of some islamic bombing and that the US and EU just try to manipulate a tragic event to get control over Ukraine.
Blaming the ukrainian government or some alien abduction failure will be more complicated...
Comrade Anklebiter Jul 19, 2014, 05:28 am
Well, if I were Russia, I'd just wait six years, pay out $200,000 in blood money for each passenger and refuse to accept legal liability.
Yakman Jul 19, 2014, 08:29 am
Pathfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Yeah, I bought tickets on Aeroflot to fly over that part of the world the day before the plane was shot down... great...
It'll cost much much more to Russia than just $200,000 per passenger.
It'll be billions of dollars when you'll include the economical consequences!
Most probably, under Putin's rule, Russia will turn toward China to sell oil and gas therefore using half the money for its army and the other half for oligarchs bank accounts.
With less contact with West, with cheap products from China, Russia's industry will totally disappear (except for armament).
Life in Russia will be pretty the same with unsatisfied population and unsolved problems. Demography will continue to deteriorate.
When Russia will wake up it'd be less than 120 millions inhabitants (so quite insignificant in front of the US, the EU or other BRICS), more so it'll be without industry, unable to maintain the integrity of its vast territory and unable to face the second half of 21st century!
Putin is like bad vodka: good enough during the party time but the guaranty of an awful hangover...
Comrade Anklebiter Jul 19, 2014, 01:03 pm
I'm not sure any of you pinkskins are gonna be able to face the second half of the 21st century.
thejeff Jul 19, 2014, 01:37 pm
The truth revealed! It's all a US plot.
Comrade Anklebiter wrote:
I'm not presumptuous enough to say I will face it, are you?
But, nuclear war excepted (that would bring everyone at the same level), occident should manage the upcoming years quite better than most other countries.
Russia is isolating itself and alone it will fall first!
Samy Jul 19, 2014, 11:48 pm
Pathfinder Companion Subscriber
Angstspawn wrote:
I dunno, we have a lot further to fall... 10d6 falling damage compared to 1d6 for developing countries...
If we lose utilities, most people will just die... Kenyans will know what to do.
yellowdingo Jul 20, 2014, 12:08 am
Fraid not kev. This fiasco has folks on all sides blamin each other. While the evidence will likely point a wet willy at Russian rebels and putin, I noticed that in the conversations recorded as proof rebels shot the plane down, the phrases 'we shot the plane down' and 'cossacks [derogatory term for pro russians] are all over the crash site' implicates Ukraine.
Andrew R Jul 20, 2014, 12:27 am
Samy wrote:
And terrorists could drop our power grid any time they wanted. Several attacks have already happened on substations including one shot apart with what is believed to be a 50 cal and one with a failed bomb. Lack of electricity is the main thing to prepare for because it controls so much of what we take for granted these days
Samy Jul 20, 2014, 01:42 am
Terrorists are small fry though. If we're talking dozens, hundreds, even thousands, there's only so much damage they can do against an occident of a billion people.
It's when it becomes hundreds of thousands or millions that things will really hit the fan...and that's probably not going to be called terrorists anymore, but something along the lines of "societal collapse".
Detroit is something to watch.
It's not going to be a bunch of lunatics with guns and bombs blowing apart our infrastructure. It's going to be the entire fabric of it unraveling because the economy doesn't work.
Vlad Koroboff Jul 20, 2014, 04:45 am
So,where do i start?
As usual,i will ask a few questions.
First,who would benefit the most from downing this plane?
Second,and this is long,WHAT?
So,let's just say that rebels have fully functioning SAM system.System is important,launcher is not enough.
What will they use it for?
They obviously use it as AIR DEFENCE.You know,against bombers.Which have RCS at least order of magnitude less than said 777,and normally operate at pretty low altitude.2-4 thousand meters.And this is also operating altitude of military transports,because otherwise supply air drops will miss.
Rebels are subject to constant air strikes from central government,and don't use SAM that they have and no-one seen it?You know,deployed battery of at least four vehicles in a pretty densely populated area?
Strike that,no-one had radar warnings of specific type from rebel territory?
So,my theory is that plane was shot down by ukrainian citizens.
PROBABLY not the rebels,because it makes no sense.But possible.
It was possible in 2001,because stupid accidents happen.
Question is,why should anyone care?300 civilians is something like daily civilian casualties ATM,but everyone talks about this plane.I don't get it.
While i'm here,i'd like to advertise Air Power Australia.Awesome site about all airforce and air defence.Most of the things there are TL;DR,sadly.
No, I think it is unlikely that I will make it to 2051.
Angstspawn Jul 20, 2014, 08:49 am
Vlad, everything is quite clear if you take care of what happened over the last 4 weeks or so.
1. The new elected ukrainian president decided to get back its territorial integrity. So governmental army attacked the separatists using support from its air forces. As the separatists don't have planes they started loosing ground.
2. A month ago a ukrainian transport military plane was shot down, and over the following weeks more planes. It's nothing but an evidence that separatists got anti-aircraft defense (that they lacked before).
3. One week ago separatist informed they captured a mobile SAM battery, while government forces said none of them is missing.
Ukraine forces had anyway no need to use anti-aircraft defense has separatists don't have plane, knowing also that shooting down a russian plane would bring an immediate retaliation and russian invasion of ukrainian territory.
4. Immediately after Malaysian flight was shot down several separatist sources informed they shot down a government military plane.
Now, I believe the investigation is closed and most involved countries just want to get the bodies back.
Why I believe it's closed?
Just because one day before the 777 was shot down, Ukrainians complained that one of their jet fighter was shot down. It means that US and western intelligence services start checking more closely what happened and that they were watching closely when this tragedy happened.
This explains why we get elements so quickly, they know who precisely is involved.
Why not disclosing everything? Because the situation is very very sensitive: logically, the involvement of Russia should have dire consequences. But as Russia is a major diplomatic and economic power they prefer to avoid a direct clash. Instead they try to get Russia stepping out of Ukraine. On its side Ukraine tries to get the maximum of it and discloses evidences to avoid to be one more victim of real politic.
Now it's quite simple, if Russia is a threat to peace in easternmost part of Europe, if Putin doesn't find a way to reassure the US and EU, they will make it so costly for Russia that they won't do it again.
pres man Jul 20, 2014, 09:16 am
That exactly what the Fascists want you to think!
Let's start,shall we?
First,substantial parts of eastern Ukraine didn't vote for him.
Second,separatists lose grounds not because of the planes,but because they are SO outnumbered it's not even funny.
Another victim of news media.It was,like,FIFTH plane to be shot down,and Ukrainian helicopter fleet was practically eliminated.Rebels'AA is awesome.Yes,there is open question where they get so many MANPADS.
No they didn't.They captured AA army base.
Also,i present to you Secretary of defence council of Ukraine declaring that in case of repeated violations of ukrainian airspace violators will be shot down Notice timestamp of two weeks ago.Also,ukrainians(whether loyalist or rebel)shelled russian territory numerous times,even killed somebody,so obviously they have no problems shooting down russian plane.Or helicopter.And blame it on the rebels,DUH.
Here's some Kremlin-sponsored propaganda for you.
Exactly what i'm talking about.Detection of operational radar of specific type.
Two.Hours.BEFORE.I know that because i was awake and reading news.
This doesn't,of course,prevents them from shooting down 777.
But,again,HOW?It's not like you can hide deployed SAM division,and it's not like you can mistake cruising 777 for anything but such.
Just because one day before the 777 was shot down, Ukrainians complained that one of their jet fighter was shot down.
They complained about it all the time.Mostly because they lose them all the time.Because amount of MANPADS and AA guns in rebel's disposition is stunning.
What happened is that substantial loyalist forces are surrounded on the southern border.As in,about two plus thousand strong.
Shooting down the 777 serves no purpose for rebels or russians,but it gives perfect excuse for loyalists to intensify air and artillery campaign to relief and deblocade surrounded units.
Which they did,of course!
If rebels have functioning Buk-M1 division,how air campaign is possible at all?It's not like Ukraine operates B2s.
Rebels are very good at shooting down aircraft, this proves they didn't shoot down this aircraft.
Mental gymnastics, got to love them.
Vlad Koroboff Jul 20, 2014, 12:33 pm
pres man wrote:
MagusJanus Jul 20, 2014, 01:37 pm
Here's my theory: There was a massive mechanical failure, the plane exploded in mid-air, and a bunch of opportunists claimed responsibility just to try to stir things up.
As I told you audios, photos and videos are coming out, as this area was under the direct observation of various intelligence agencies.
Russia will deny and veto any serious investigation, no doubt about it. We know, so we don't need much more to take decisions.
The US and EU won't make war to Russia, they'll isolate it little by little and Russia will shiver by itself. Europe can survive without Russian oil and gas (even if it won't be easy at all) but without the full revenues from its natural ressources (China is buying it at a cheap price), without foreign investment (worsened by oligarchs' money escaping the country), with its dependance to Western and Asian technologies, Russia is doomed.
Maybe it'll take several decades but at the end Russia will even have to give back Crime.
Russia want to be feared and it got it. But Russia should know that what Occident fears, it destroys. They lost the first Cold War because of its isolation and economical weakness, they'll loose a second one for the same reasons!
Gallo Jul 20, 2014, 05:47 pm
MagusJanus wrote:
Are you trying to be serious or just incredibly insensitive?
Gallo wrote:
Serious. This remains a tragedy no matter why the plane went down.
However, my local news channel made it a point to report the plane had not undergone proper safety inspections before lifting off, and the rebels have agreed to turn over the black boxes. Of course, the rebels could have tampered with them, but we'll see once they're examined.
Both sides are blaming each other and politicians using this as an excuse to lay blame on each other. The U.S. is using this as leverage against Russia and Russia is trying to use this as leverage against the Ukraine. About the only people who seem to care about the dead themselves are the people from Malaysia.
So, how could I be incredibly insensitive? I'm not trying to use the deaths to profit. I'm only offering what I think happened to the plane. I'm not one of the ones playing a game of political hot potato with the blame for this plane coming down.
Vlad Koroboff wrote:
Vlad, you are either incredibly naive or incredibly insensitive. Or maybe both.
People care because 300 people in a civilian airliner were murdered by some idiot in a uniform sitting at the controls of the SA-11 who either couldn't tell the difference between a civilian airliner and a military plane or could and didn't care. You know 300 people with families and friends and lives and futures.
Plus people care because on the balance of evidence to date it was shot down by an illegal armed group operating with the covert support of a sovereign nation against the legitimate government of another sovereign nation.
You say it makes no sense for the rebels to have done it but you think civilians did it. How does that make sense? Your logic gets more perverse with every post. And at the same time you are suggesting the loyalists did it! Get your arguments/conspiracy theories straight at the very least.
As for your response too point 4 above - "BEFORE".... the reports are that various separatist soldiers were overheard saying they had shot down the plane after they had shot it down. Whether or not the reports are true, you can't try and discount them by claiming they were from before the plane was shot down.
If the rebels didn't shoot the plane down then why are they actively hampering international efforts to investigate the incident, access the crash site etc? If the Ukrainian military did it (or these random civilians who somehow manage to operate a sophisticated air defence missile system), why aren't the rebels welcoming in all efforts to determine who was responsible?
People care because this was a big splashy event. People care because they can picture themselves on an airplane getting blown up.
They can't picture themselves on the ground in Ukraine. How many civilian Ukrainians have been killed already in the course of this fighting? I don't even know, because it had fallen out of the headlines before this happened. But they were all just locals on the ground in a war zone. No need to care.
They still had families and friends and lives and maybe even futures.
thejeff wrote:
Not disputing that at all. Any unnecessary death is a tragedy to those involved and their loved ones. But we are talking about this specific incident - a plane full of people cruising at 10,000 metres, not people who unfortunately live in a conflict zone.
I really should include sarcasm tag in my posts.
Nobody knows exact number.Combined numbers reported by rebels are in 4-5 thousand,including wounded,but again,if five-story house is demolished by artillery,it's pretty hard to count.Especially if it's not a single event.
I am incredibly smart and know something about capabilities of modern(or,in case of SA-11,not so modern)weapon systems.
Which is why the ONLY solid conclusion at this stage is a)
plane has been shot down,b)by ukrainians and c)rebels had no confirmed working SAM units,loyalist had them,so it's probably not the rebels.
You know 300 people with families and friends and lives and futures.
Statistics.Sad,but true.At least they died fast.
balance of evidence
There are no evidence ATM,you know that,right?
And at the same time you are suggesting the loyalists did it!
Loyalists is military of central government.What civilians you are talking about?
As for your response too point 4 above - "BEFORE".... the reports are
Where did you get your reports?
Because i get mine from a dozen different sources on the ground,AND NOT FROM A MAINSTREAM NEWSMEDIA.
Next thing they say that Putin's plane was the real target or the plane was shot down on the russia-ukraine border.And yep,there was report of missile hit against Candid somewhere around 15.50 Moscow.Candid,of course,is a four-engine plane and normally didn't fall easy,so OK.
If the rebels didn't shoot the plane down then why are they actively hampering international efforts to investigate the incident, access the crash site etc?
Where do you get your info,again?Because mainstream media from all sides can't be trusted.You know that,right.
why aren't the rebels welcoming in all efforts to determine who was responsible?
Mostly because Ukraine is responsible for this under international law,but if you allow them access to evidence,it will disappear.So they are waiting for,yes,ICAO and other guys who are not actively interested in hiding evidence to arrive.
Which is difficult because war.
His usual nonsense.
You say there is no evidence yet say the only solid conclusion is the Ukrainians did it. Seriously, at least try and keep the narrative within your posts consistent, even if you are unable to do so within a stream of posts.
Let's look at another one… A few posts ago you were talking about how many planes the separatists had shot down, here you are saying they have no confirmed SAM units.
You ask what civilians I am talking about? Maybe the ones you were claiming shot down the plane….
You claim the mainstream media can't be trusted, but then suggest your "sources on the ground" are more reliable. You mean sources in the rebel-occupied area, the separatist troops of which are most likely the culprits in this attack? Yup, totally impartial.
And to round off your Conspiracy 101 you think the Ukrainian authorities will make the evidence disappear…..Why are the separatists hindering international agencies getting access? What are they trying to hide? Why did they allow bodies to lie rotting on the ground, why did they loot the victims' belongings? Why did they make no effort to secure the crash site in any way - other than to stop international officials accessing the site.
By the way, you claim Ukraine is responsible under international law. In the territory controlled by the rebels? I'm sure if I could be bothered to wade through your posts from a few months back you would claim the separatists are legitimate, so therefor the should, by your logic, be responsible. But that would be inconvenient wouldn't it. The missile was launched from land they control and they are the ones hindering the relevant authorities from accessing the site. After all it would be terribly inconvenient to your narrative if it were proved the rebels were responsible, even more so if there was a confirmed Russian link.
PS. A few months ago you were salivating at the thought of war breaking out in the separatists areas so you could see how all the military equipment performed. Well your wish was granted in a grotesquely criminal and callous fashion. Happy now?
You say there is no evidence yet say the only solid conclusion is the Ukrainians did it.
Well,that's not russians for sure.Strategic SAMs are deeper into the country or in crimea.
So that leaves ukrainians.DUH.
I am so not going to explain the difference between SAM division and infantryman with SA-18
And i am also not going to explain difference between civilian and citizen.
In fact,i'm not going to explain anything to you.How can a person even be so uneducated?Seriosly,man,read a book or two.
It will answer substantial amount of questions.
Gallo Jul 21, 2014, 03:01 am
You completely missed the point, again. I was not commenting on what the evidence pointed at, but rather the fact that in one post you say there is no evidence and then in the very same post you say the only solid conclusion is the Ukrainians did it. Please try and be consistent.
Are you claiming the Ukrainian military had a SA-11 unit deep inside rebel-held territory? As it is not in dispute where the missile was launched from or what type of missile it was, for that matter. It is irrelevant whether the missile was a "strategic SAM" - which the SA-11 isn't. Again you are trying to divert attention from your flawed logic with an irrelevant comment.
Vlad, I spent 25 years in various uniformed and Defence intelligence roles. I do know the difference between various SAM types. I suspect a lot more than you do. What do you actually mean by "SAM Division"? Do you mean a SAM battery - radar unit, control vehicle and several launcher units, or several batteries making up a battalion or regiment. Or do you mean that SA-11 are a divisional level asset?
My apologies for misreading civilian as citizen. Though it does make me wonder why you used the term Ukrainian citizen as opposed to saying Ukrainian military…..Because technically the separatists, at least the ones who haven't come over from Russia, are still Ukrainian citizens. So I guess you actually are right to say Ukrainian citizens shot down the plane.
As noted above I have spent a lot of my life on matters military and have read more than "a book or two", what are your qualifications?
So, yes, please stop trying to explain things as you are just tossing together a grab-bag of rumours, selective interpretation of information, and bias all seasoned with a range of irrelevant information, responses that don't actually address people's comments/questions and a perverse interest in events in Ukraine going further out of control.
PS. You might want to learn how to punctuate a sentence and use commas first. It might make your accusation that I am uneducated carry a bit more weight.
Are you claiming the Ukrainian military had a SA-11 unit deep inside rebel-held territory?
Should they?
Last recorded position
Crash site
Quite a lot loyalist-controlled territories between those two points.
AND YES,THEY HAVE.Military base 14something,near Andreevka village(thirty miles west from Mariupol).
Rebels are not known for their skill in assaulting military bases,so most of them are still under control of central government.And considering angry bear to the east,guess where most of Ukraine's air defence are?
Spoilers!:
on the northern border.Because Belarus is no less dangerous than Russia,and on northern border at least there are less rebel recon-sabotage units.But some of them were covering three surrounded brigades on southern border(probably out of range)and in bases around the country.Did i mentioned that rebels captured and restored to kinda working condition Su-25?
SAM battery - radar unit, control vehicle and several launcher units
Yep.My fault.Apparently same words in english mean different things!
And i will not even talk about nato reporting names....
It is irrelevant whether the missile was a "strategic SAM"
Oh,but it is!Because in case of SA-10 debris would be scattered around half of eastern Ukraine,and only SA-10 even theoretically could shot down the plane from russian territory.SO IT IS NOT RUSSIANS.Probably.
Well,it could be russians,but that requires long-range AA missile.
Also could explain relatively light damage to the plane...Decisions,decisions...
Huh. $200,000 per victim seems to be the going rate for shooting down civilian airliners:
Siberia Airlines Flight 1812
Usagi Yojimbo Jul 21, 2014, 08:06 am
He is a big fan of the Russian version of Tom Clancy, who, IIRC, is currently volunteering in Ukraine as an Air Defence specialist.
Usagi Yojimbo wrote:
IIRC, is currently volunteering in Ukraine as an Air Defence specialist.
That would be assistant defence minister.
Yes,but how we determine who shot it down?Ukraine in 1812 incident denied that missile was theirs even after paying.Russians will deny everything(they already doing so,and they have missile launch warning system,AWACS AND satellites in the area).
Rebels have no such money,and are considered part of Ukraine anyway.
Probably Ukraine will pay,but it will be in no way an admission of guilt.
Makes sense actually.
God things were easier in eighties.
Also,did you notice is that in similar cases offending party most likely do not pay for the jet(which costs A LOT)?
what are your qualifications?
Officer's degree in operation and repair of automobile forces.
You know,these things
No,not the guys who actually do the job.The guy behind the wheel.
Oh well.I didn't serve a day anyway.
Mark Hoover Jul 21, 2014, 05:16 pm
298 people are dead. There's no joke here, no conspiracy, no politics. Just people. Dead. I didn't even know any of them, but they were flying somewhere and they died.
There is no reason in this. There can be no explanation, no justification that makes sense. There were just 298 people, and then there weren't.
Fear and anger and frustration aren't strong enough. I'm sorry for these people, their families, their friends. I've only lost a few people in my life, and gradually over time. I can't even imagine.
Go on with the thread and the debate; I'm learning a lot and realizing how little I know of my own country of America as well as the rest of the world. But please try to remember that there were people on that flight.
Kryzbyn Jul 21, 2014, 05:22 pm
How much did they pay out for the Korean airline in the 80's?
As near as I can tell, nothing.
Ukraine conflict: 'White power' warrior from Sweden
Still no fascists in Ukraine, nope.
Legion Janus Jul 21, 2014, 07:33 pm
For the people who actually care about the plane and bodies on it:
Bodies and flight recorders returned to Malaysian authorities
For those who want to continue to use the bodies for their own political arguments:
United States admits evidence that Russia is behind it is circumstantial
You can fly TO Russia, just don't fly OVER Russia.
More of our top-notch foreign policy there. Nothing to see here.
Huh. I was doing a little refresher on KAL 007 and came upon this rather strange article from 2012 about victims' family members who believe that their relatives are still alive and living in Russia thirty years later.
Ever stranger, in the comments section we find a poster or two who believe that KAL 007 was shot down because Rep. Larry McDonald, who apparently was also the Chairman of the John Birch Society, was exposing "the New World Order."
[Puts on shiny hat]
Sounds plausible to me.
Freehold DM Jul 21, 2014, 08:11 pm
Legion Janus wrote:
I don't think that latter article means what you think it means.
I think it means exactly what I said. I leave it up to others to judge if the evidence is enough.
Usagi Yojimbo Jul 21, 2014, 08:39 pm
To save everyone the trouble, that isn't the headline of the article and isn't an accurate summary of the article.
Though yes, everyone agrees that the Russian armed forces didn't pull the trigger.
EDIT - darn, ninja'd by Freehold.
Note this "saving of the trouble" is only accurate if you ignore every single time Russia is brought up in the article and the fact Kerry is trying to use the evidence to get sanctions against Russia for what happened in the Ukraine. Which, pretty much, means ignoring 90+% of the article.
I think you misunderstood my post, as well as the article. It was meant to save people the trouble of looking at the article because they believed your misleading summary. If it really said that, then people would need to read it. As it doesn't actually say that...
Here's some cherry-picked quotes; note that context does not change meaning. I just did not feel like copying and pasting the entire thing.
There's more,
Article Title wrote:
US working on case against Russia on downed plane
Article wrote:
"This is the moment of truth for Russia," said Kerry, leveling some of Washington's harshest criticism of Moscow since the crisis in Ukraine began.
"Russia is supporting these separatists. Russia is arming these separatists. Russia is training these separatists, and Russia has not yet done the things necessary in order to try to bring them under control," he said.
"It's pretty clear that this is a system that was transferred from Russia into the hands of separatists," he said.
"There's a buildup of extraordinary circumstantial evidence," Kerry said. "We picked up the imagery of this launch. We know the trajectory. We know where it came from. We know the timing, and it was exactly at the time that this aircraft disappeared from the radar. We also know from voice identification that the separatists were bragging about shooting it down afterward."
Kerry also said the administration was hopeful that the incident would galvanize support in Europe for increasing sanctions on Russia over its overall actions in Ukraine.
"We hope this is a wake-up call for some countries in Europe that have been reluctant to move," Kerry said, noting that President Barack Obama had signed off on a new round of sanctions on Russia the day before the plane went down.
I bolded everything that backs what I said.
Mark Hoover wrote:
There can be no explanation, no justification that makes sense.
I just love your idealism.
There are a few thousand ukrainian military surrounded in the southeast.
I can EASILY imagine downing that plane to create media distraction,and then use ALL available forces, to crush that rebellion.Because if they force three brigades to surrender...
In other news,Ukraine in the last two days intensified attacks,with fighting in Donetsk suburbs(which didn't happened before).
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