One step forward for Russian rugby
November 3, 2019 April 19, 2020 / rosscullen	/ Leave a comment
The Rugby World Cup has come to an end. How did Russia get on?
The Bears exited at the pool stage after playing in only their second world cup finals (their debut in this tournament was in 2011).
However, they could not improve on their showing eight years ago – then they scored 57 points, ran in eight tries and landed a losing bonus point against the United States.
This time around things were much tougher.
They played in the tournament curtain-raiser against Japan and did cross the line after only five minutes, setting a new record for the fastest try scored in an opening match of a Rugby World Cup.
But they would go on to score only another 14 points in total (and no more tries) after this.
19 points from four games is very poor return.
I went to all three of then team's warm-up matches in Moscow and got to know some of the squad during their summer preparations ahead of the tournament.
They won the first match, against a combined XV from the best of the Russia domestic league (minus those called up to the national squad).
But they went down easily in the other two games, against English Championship side Jersey Reds at the small Slava ground and versus Pro12's Connacht at the much bigger Dinamo Moscow stadium.
And then when it came to the tournament proper, four defeats.
They came up against Ireland again (and captain Vasily Artemyev, in the selfie above, knows a lot of the Irish after going to secondary school in Dublin), as well as Scotland and the hosts Japan, and Russia lost those games, as was unfortunately expected.
They would have had the Samoa game labelled as the one opportunity for some possible points but lost that as well.
Despite the disappointing showing in Japan, there are already plans from Russia to explore a bid for the 2027 men's world cup.
In 2014, Russia staged the 2014 Winter Olympics and last year, the country showed that it could handle another of the planet's biggest showpieces: the men's football world cup.
Could it do the same with rugby?
The game is returning to France, one of the sport's key markets, for the 2023 event.
After that, would the game's global leaders take a punt on another nascent market?
Japan is far more established in comparison with Russia, and 2019 was seen as a tentative (and overdue) move into a new market.
Argentina has not staged a World Cup and there is an unwritten rule that world cups swing between the two hemispheres.
After Japan 2019 and France 2023, the calls for another southern tournament from players in Argentina, South Africa and the trans-Tasman giants of Australia and New Zealand will be hard to resist.
IN-DEPTH: Looking left and right in Venezuela's crisis
January 31, 2019 February 2, 2019 / rosscullen	/ Leave a comment
How different narratives drive different perspectives as the country's political and economic crisis rumbles on
After the leader of the legislative assembly, Juan Guaidó, declared on 23 January that he would serve as interim president, the world's politicians and media have been offering widely varying viewpoints.
Some support Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, others have backed Guaidó and the opposition, whereas some have even chosen to come out in favour of neither side and promote a 'third way' or compromise path.
But before the stunning move from a now re-invigorated anti-Maduro movement in Venezuela, there was already evidence of how the media cover the same events differently if we look at Nicolás Maduro's contested inauguration for a second term earlier on this month.
Here is how leftist broadcaster Telesur covered the occasion:
And here is the video from The Economist, which has decried the Maduro government:
Juan Guaidó's announcement has been called a coup, a crisis, outside intervention, a challenge to the Maduro regime, a threat to democracy and all manner of descriptions under the hot Caracas sun.
The media have been tying themselves in knots to analyse the continuing instability in the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world.
For Venezuelanalysis, a socialist online news website, Guaidó's move should be seen for what it is: Venezuela: Call It What It Is — a Coup
But, as Patricia Laya of Bloomberg points out, Guaidó has cited the constitution to show how his declaration is not illegal:
"In a Jan. 15 column for the Washington Post, Guaido also cited Article 350, which says Venezuelans 'shall disown any regime, legislation or authority that violates democratic values, principles and guarantees or encroaches upon human rights.'"
Indeed, inside Venezuela, there is strong anti-Maduro sentiment online.
This article from Caracas Chronicles makes it clear on which side of the fence it stands, saying Nicolás Maduro leads a "criminal dictatorship": As Venezuelan Bishops Recognize Guaidó, Chavista Mobs Terrorize Local Churches.
Looking to the international media, the socialist newspaper Morning Star excoriates the US as an "imperial state" with a bloody history in the region in this article: Stand in solidarity with Venezuela's people, describing the current situation in Venezuela as "class struggle with the gloves off".
It is indeed true that the United States does not have a good record in Latin America.
Despite that, no sooner had Juan Guaidó made his announcement – in what was surely a co-ordinated decision – than the United States led a swathe of Latin American nations and other western allies in recognising Guaidó and calling for fresh elections.
Denouncing the opposition as treacherous and proudly supporting the government were its usual backers, notably Russia, Turkey and China.
Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, criticised the US for 'violating international law with Venezuela' in its support for Juan Guaidó and its pursuit of sanctions against the state oil company, PDVSA.
But there has been a slight chink in the armour in more recent days.
On 30 January, the Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "without a doubt, President Maduro's openness to dialogue is highly commendable", as Maduro suggested he could consider possible talks with the opposition.
But did the president truly mean face-to-face negotiated talks? Again, there is further room for interpretative differences here based on the translation from Spanish to English, as the Wall Street Journal's Anatoly Kurmanaev explains.
Maduro's interview with Russia's RIA caused waved today because of word "negotiate" with Guaido, implying willingness to cede on some things. The original word used by Maduro is "dialogar," or open a dialogue, which is old news and meaningless in today's Venezuela. https://t.co/R2ytWX74br
— Anatoly Kurmanaev (@AKurmanaev) January 30, 2019
There were other interesting points to note in reactions in the region.
Ecuadorian president Lenin Moreno voiced his support for Juan Guaidó. What is interesting in this case is that under Moreno's predecessor Rafael Correa the response from Ecuador would almost certainly have been the opposite.
Correa was a paid-up member of the socialist bloc across the region at the time, including former leaders Lula da Silva (Brazil), Cristina Fernandez (Argentina) and Michelle Bachelet (Chile) and one that still comprises Maduro along with Evo Morales (Bolivia), Daniel Ortega (Nicaragua) and Cuba (Raul Castro then, Miguel Diaz-Canel now).
Evo Morales, the leftist Bolivian president running for re-election later this year, came out with strong support of Nicolás Maduro, whose inauguration ceremony in Caracas he attended on 10 January.
Like Ecuador, Mexico has performed a U-turn – only from the other direction.
From 2012-2018, when Enrique Peña Nieto was in charge, Mexico City fell into line with its fellow Lima Group members in condemning the Maduro administration.
Now that long-time leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador is president, we have seen a change – no explicit criticism of the government, with Mexico calling for a third way negotiation between both sides.
Nicolás Maduro attended López Obrador's inauguration in Mexico in December, although many Mexican members of congress made their feelings clear with chants of "dictator, dictator" when his name was mentioned.
And while all this arguing in the media and discord between regional neighbours and wider world powers continues, the average woman and man in Venezuela still struggle on, as the country battles hyperinflation, with violent and growing protests, crippled by a lack of medicines and basic goods.
MONTENEGRO – Video Report
September 28, 2017 October 27, 2017 / rosscullen	/ Leave a comment
What's going on right now in the small, mountainous country on the Adriatic Sea?
Moscow on manoeuvres
August 28, 2017 October 4, 2017 / rosscullen	/ 1 Comment
While playing openly on the world stage, Russia holds onto a more subtle influence in Europe
Vladimir Putin has been holding court on the international scene in recent months.
Laughing off US investigations into election meddling, championing the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's civil war efforts, and reining in Western powers' determined punishment of North Korea.
It waves its veto whenever a Syria resolution is brought before the United Nations, and only gives the green light to sanctions on North Korea that ensure the secretive state does hold onto some wriggle room.
But as all this global drama plays out, Russia also has ongoing geopolitical interests in hidden corners of Europe.
Moldova sits on the shoulder of Romania, jutting into Ukraine. It is an often-overlooked nation – except, perhaps, by European football fans on unique away-days.
It is the poorest country in the region. Economic output last year was $6.8bn, according to the World Bank. Comparable in population size, income status and geography, Albania saw GDP of $11bn, with a much higher life expectancy.
Moldova also has a breakaway, Russian-leaning region.
Transnistria comprises a sliver of land to the east of the River Dniper up to the nearby border with Ukraine.
It has declared independence but is only recognised by other breakaway, Russophile regions, namely Abkhazia and South Ossetia (both parts of Georgia now controlled by Moscow).
Russian is the local lingo, the hammer and sickle is on the flag and citizens buy their shopping with a version of the ruble.
So could Transnistria rejoin the Moscow motherland?
It is not without precedent.
The Russian state of Tuva, now an integral part of the country, is a southern province off the south-east border with Mongolia. And in 1944 it requested incorporation into the Soviet Union. Tuvans enjoyed a 23-year-long independence before calling off their self-governing statehood.
But if Transnistria were to re-incorporate into Russia, then it would be cut off from the mainland. It would be stranded in Europe, surrounded by independent countries wary of Russia.
That, too, would not be anything new.
Nestled between Poland and Lithuania, Kaliningrad is a constituent part of Russia, but an exclave with no direct land connection to the mainland.
Annexed by the Soviet Union after World War Two, when the USSR broke up in 1989, the former Communist Poland and the former Soviet Lithuania declared independence, encircling Kaliningrad, which remained part of Russia.
It may have lost a number of its territories when the Soviet Union collapsed, but there remain several pockets of peoples across Europe who want to break free of their European Union-leaning governments and look to Moscow for their futures.
And if we are looking for a sad illustration of when these disputes turn to war, then there is also an example for this: the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where Russophile rebels are fighting the government in the east of the country.
Flames in the mountains
January 24, 2014 January 24, 2014 / rosscullen	/ Leave a comment
Islamist threats spread anxiety in Russia with the Winter Olympics just around the corner
The toothed peaks and rumbling glaciers of the Caucasus Mountains in Southern Russia, along the border with Georgia and Azerbaijan, are sharply beautiful. The view from the top of Mount Elbrus, Europe's highest point, was brilliant in the white light, far above the clouds when I summited it with two friends last August. Yet the region seemed quiet when I was there, the green glens of summer vibrant with wildflowers and the angled sun crashing off the snow caps onto green-domed mosques. All the people we met were friendly and very hospitable. But this can be a dangerous area, with worries not simply about the crevasse fields and exposed ridges. The Caucasus area has long been synonymous with an Islamist fundamentalism manifested irregularly by bombings and other atrocities, and carried out by militants who thrive in the region's isolated backroads and labyrinthine valleys. This point was brought home to us by the border warning signs on peaks such as Mount Cheget that straddle the Georgian frontier and the fact that our mountain guide was not just responsible for our safety on the mountain, but also off the hill, as there have been kidnappings of foreign climbers in the area before.
In three weeks' time, the Black Sea coast and mountain resort of Sochi, way out on the western fringes of the Caucasus Mountains, will host the Winter Olympics. Worryingly, the massive showpiece event has been subjected to terror threats from the extremists who are striving to create a Muslim Caliphate across the mountainous region. The self-styled leader of the 'Caucasus Emirate', Doku Umarov, has reproached Moscow's staging of the Olympics in Sochi, saying the site for 'Olympic revelry was built on the bones of Muslim brothers killed by the Russians'. That message came in a video posted in July but there was another video released last week in which he said "for those of you who are left, there is an obligation to continue this jihad until death itself."
But is Umarov even alive? Last Thursday 16, the Chechen regional leader, said that he believed Umarov had been killed. The Interfax news agency quoted Ramzan Kadyrov in an eerie statement: "We have long been 99%-certain that D. Umarov was liquidated during one of the operations. Now there is evidence that he is not among the living". But there has been no official announcement of this apparent operation, and it would be a timely coup for the security forces if it were to be confirmed.
One militant who has been 'liquidated' recently is Eldar Magatov, the alleged leader of an insurgent group in Dagestan. He was killed in a shootout on Tuesday. But security authorities are now looking for four so-called 'Black Widows' (whose husbands have been killed by the security services in the ongoing Caucasus skirmishes) who are believed to be either in and around Sochi now, or planning an attack of some kind on the Olympic site, possibly to avenge their spouses' deaths.
The terror threats are certainly fresh in the Russian and international spotlight following the recent attacks in Volgograd. 34 people died in twin suicide bombings on 29 and 30 December in the southern city. Vilayat Dagestan, one of the regional militant organisations, claimed responsibility for the attacks. Vladimir Putin is certainly determined to face down the terrorists and pull off a successful Games. In the aftermath of the Volgograd bombings, he vowed to "completely annihilate" the terrorists. The Russian president has wagered a lot on being able to see off the threats coming from the region. He has also spent a lot: with a massive $51bn budget for the Games.
Troubled by the price tag, a furore over a ban on gay propaganda and now threatened by terrorist attack, the Russian government has had a controversial lead-up to these Games. It has spent a lot trying to promote these Games, bringing development to the West Caucasus region but the issue of security is certain to ensure a lot of hand-wringing in Moscow as the days count down to the start of competition. The Winter Olympic torch has been lit and has been travelling far and wide: across the Russian mainland, to the International Space Station and to the bottom of the deepest lake on Earth, Baikal. By the time of the Opening Ceremony, it will also have been to the top of Mount Elbrus. Next week sees the flame taken right through the heartlands of the North Caucasus region, reaching the pinnacle of 5,642m on Elbrus on 1 February. It would be a blessing if the Olympic torch's view from the top of that huge mountain in a disputed region will be as hopeful and calm as the vista we enjoyed five months ago.
Arab autumn woes
September 14, 2013 September 15, 2013 / rosscullen	/ Leave a comment
As the global wrangling over Syria continues, militant attacks go on in 'post-Arab Spring' nations
Two-and-a-half years on from the explosive revolutions that toppled dictators and forced deep re-organisations of countries' politics from Morocco to Yemen, there seems to be no let up in the deadly instability that has rocked many of the nations that underwent upheavals.
Yesterday, the Egyptian air forces carries out raids on Islamist militant positions in the restive Sinai area – a double strike as part of an ongoing battle with insurgents in the region more generally and also in probable retaliation for two suicide car bombings on Wednesday 11. Six soldiers lost their lives and many more people were wounded in the twin assault: one targeted the intelligence building in the town of Rafah and the other hit an armoured personnel carrier. A little-known jihadist group called Jund al-Islam claimed responsibility.
There was another car bombing on Wednesday, to the east over the border in Libya. This time the device went off near the country's Foreign Ministry in the city of Benghazi. There were no serious casualties but the explosion came on both the anniversary of the 9/11 attack in the US in 2001 and the attack on the American Consulate in the Libyan city. The U.S. ambassador and three others died as al-Qaeda-linked militants broke into the diplomatic mission last year.
At the start of the week, on Monday, the Tunisian security forces killed two Islamist fighters belonging to the Ansar al-Sharia extremist group. And just today there was another bombing of Yemen's main oil pipeline in the central Maarib province. It is the fourth attack on the pipeline in a month.
Algeria has also been in the news over the last few days after the release of a report into a deadly siege attack in January on a gas plant in the country's desert borderlands with Libya. 40 people were killed when Islamist extremists overran the In Amenas facility, which was home to many Western workers as well as Algerians. Statoil, the Norwegian company, published on Thursday the conclusions of an internal investigation into the militant assault.
But despite all this unrest across the region, the past seven days have been another week where the focus of the world's media has been on Syria. There has now been an agreement between John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov over how to address the 21 August use of chemical weapons, but there remains a nervousness, with the use of force by the US not totally ruled out for all contexts. The world powers may be trying to deal with the Syrian crisis, but they are only looking into the chemical weapons side of that conflict, not the deteriorating state of the nation itself, wrecked by a war that shows no signs of stopping, and is becoming ever more complex regarding the ethnic and religious alliances and hostilities at play.
What this past week encapsulates is the overarching worry of the examples now being played out by the countries ahead of Syria in the 'Arab Spring' transition ladder. The war in Syria seems a long way from ending (if it ever technically does, that is), but even if it were concluding, the extremist elements on both sides of the conflict point to an ominous future for the country. If terrorist bombings can continue in countries that are perceived to have already gone through the 'Arab Spring', then the outlook for Syria, (which has had the longest war of all those countries, and thus more time for militants to weave their extremist aims into the region), is bleak – despite the Russia-US negotiations appearing to start to bear fruit.
GEORGIA – As-Live Video Report on anniversary of 2008 war with Russia
August 13, 2013 August 24, 2013 / rosscullen	/ Leave a comment
A video report from the Georgian town of Gori on the five-year anniversary of the 2008 war with Russia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia.
Snowed under
June 24, 2013 July 25, 2013 / rosscullen	/ Leave a comment
Several countries with competing ambitions are involved in the CIA whistleblower's escapade
Since arriving in Moscow yesterday, Edward Snowden has set yet another diplomatic ball rolling. The cobweb of international espionage winks and nudges seems to be growing daily. The US would like to see Mr Snowden back on home turf as soon as possible to answer charges of spying and communicating classified information, but he has, so far, managed to stay one step ahead of Washington.
He first fled to Hong Kong after leaking details of the questionable intelligence-gathering methods employed by the US secret services, for whom he used to work as an IT engineer. That brought China into the mix, and although Hong Kong has a separate legal set-up to the rest of the country, it did give Beijing the indirect chance to rub the US up the wrong way.
Mr Snowden has flown from China to Russia and he has submitted an asylum request to Ecuador. He was rumoured to have been leaving Moscow today on a flight to Cuba; a journey that was possibly only going via Havana on route to its final destination in Venezuela. Lots of countries are involved and all of them are defending Mr Snowden's right to speak out. But why? It does appear that one of the major reasons for these nations defending the name of Edward Snowden is to employ this ruse a means to irritate the US. Certainly, the Latin American states involved are all members of the late Hugo Chavez's leftist ALBA bloc, and love nothing more than having a go at what they see as an overbearing, bullying neighbour to the north.
There has been a lot of talk on this issue so far regarding human rights, freedom of expression and the right (or lack thereof) of governments to snoop on citizens. But it is interesting to look at the list in the paragraph above of the countries now involved in this escapade. Mr Snowden claims to be fighting for freedom of expression but China, Russia, Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador have not been shy to suppress parts of the media that report on issues that they see as a bit too close to the ruling inner circles. The US may be wrong to think that all countries should deign to whatever arrest warrant it has issued for the latest Wikileaks-related secret data releaser. But, on the other hand, Mr Snowden may be wrong to think that a fair trial is a matter of regular, democratic order in places where restrictions on expression – the very issue at the heart of this case – have been all too common in recent years.
Playing the Gaddafi game
September 12, 2011 September 12, 2011 / rosscullen	/ 1 Comment
There is still support for the ousted colonel across a divided Africa
On Sunday 11 September, Carlos Gomes Junior, the prime minster of Guinea Bissau, told Radio Bombolom:
"With all the investment that Gaddafi has put into Guinea Bissau he deserves that respect and good treatment by the authorities and people of Guinea Bissau."
Mr Gomes said he would welcome Gaddafi if he were to seek refuge there. Guinea Bissau is a tiny country (for further details see 'Diagnosis elections'– 05/09/11) with an equally small voice on the world stage. It is also a very poor country and regular cash injections from the Gaddafi regime would be celebrated publicly, even if, in reality, the money was headed for the cabinet's bank accounts instead of social projects and food programmes. When the anti-Gaddafi fighters stormed Tripoli and the National Transitional Council (NTC) moved into town the Colonel elected to flee and African nations, including Guinea Bissau had to choose one of four paths to tread in the post-Gaddafi era:
1. Recognition and condemnation, e.g. Nigeria
On 23 August the continent's most populous nation and one of Africa's most important players recognised the NTC. The government was quick to lay down the law to the new Libyan leaders and said the agreement was conditional on the upholding of human rights and democratic principles.
2. Stubborn and angry refusal to accept the new order and a loss of face, e.g. South Africa
The South Africans wanted to ensure that African problems were dealt with by the African Union (AU). This was a fair aim. President Zuma flew to Tripoli in May to try to broker a peaceful end to the conflict with the AU's backing.
But the drip-drip of countries across the world coming out in favour of the NTC and the rebels, (as they were then), backed South Africa into a corner. Hopes that it could use its membership of the BRICS emerging nations power bloc were dashed when Russia and, as of today 12 September, China recognised the NTC. In fact, Pretoria's useless battle against the stream may well see it shipwrecked and isolated on the world stage.
3. Quietly accepting but uncertain, e.g. Niger
Niger has been accepting the steady flow of Gaddafi loyalists fleeing the new order on humanitarian grounds. In the last 24 hours, the country's justice minister said that Colonel Gaddafi's third son Saadi had been intercepted in an incoming convoy. Niger has also said it is unsure what it would do if the ousted leader himself turned up in Niamey.
However, on the other hand, Niger has recognised the NTC as the legitimate governing authority in Libya. It also recognises the International Criminal Court's (ICC) jurisdiction and the ICC has an arrest warrant issued for Gaddafi. The Libyan border nation has manoeuvred into a quietly effective position: show your caring side by accepting fleeing regime soldiers but show your hardened side by waving the ICC arrest warrant at Colonel Gaddafi.
4. Continued support for Colonel Gaddafi, e.g. Guinea Bissau
Carefree and careless, Guinea Bissau, unlike South Africa, has no international standing to lose by admitting the close ties to Gaddafi and offering him a safe harbour. Such self-harm flies in the face of the attitude of influential and helpful neighbours. Bissau may feel their hands are tied by the old Gaddafi-era investment cheques. It would be better to stand up and say that those are some of its debts that will never be paid off.
Waiting game
August 16, 2011 / rosscullen	/ 1 Comment
On the regional diplomatic front-line against the Syrian violence, more might be expected from Lebanon
It is a fractious neighbourhood. The repressive Assad regime in Syria is surrounded by Iraq (still rocking with violence of its own), Iran (currently quietly watching events from the corner), Israel (dealing with its own Spanish indignado-style protests at the moment), Jordan (where King Abdullah has spoken recently to reassure the people of reforms), Turkey (starting to get restless with Syria and now using its megaphone to condemn Bashar al Assad) and Lebanon (a successful democracy, sitting between West and the Middle East).
However, Beirut is failing to use its geopolitical location and the fact that it has a seat on the UN Security Council at the moment to be able to lead the pack on Syrian policy. When the condemnatory statement was on the table in New York, Lebanon lifted its pen and passed it on. Discussing his country's refusal to sign, Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour was quoted as saying that:
"The decision reflected Lebanon's clear convictions. This position sought the higher interests of Lebanon and the entire region, including Syria."
It is true that a resolution would have been a more defiant outcome and the European-led statement was weak. But that is not a reason not to express support for a small step on the road to reform, sanctions or intervention. This last option is the most worrying and the one that scares Russia and China the most at the moment. But Lebanon does not have to call for a Libyan-style military move.
The violence has escalated in recent days to the shelling of the port of Latakia from the sea by the Syrian navy. A simple denunciation would carry weight, as Lebanon is the only Middle Eastern and major Muslim nation on the present Council (although Gabon and Nigeria have sizeable Islamic populations as well).
But Lebanon has some tricky politics. Hezbollah, the militant Shia Muslim group, supports the Assad regime. Saad Hariri, the former prime minister, looks more to the West. With politics opening up across the region, Hezbollah ought to pause and consider the fallout if it were to continue to support a regime that was to be thrown out and whose members, like Hosni Mubarak, the former Egyptian president, ended up in caged docks in front of a condemnatory public. Hezbollah has links to Iran and it is hard for them to think purely within national borders, such are the complexities of the regional patronages and ties.
If it were to do so, it may see the reformist agenda led by Hariri and also the tide of condemnation growing in regional big beasts like Turkey. Lebanon is swimming against the flow at the moment and it would be better at least to turn to face the shore, rather than the swelling, international, condemnatory white rollers brewing out at sea.