New York could lose 2 congressional seats after 2020 census
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WASHINGTON — New York risks losing two congressional seats after the next census in 2020 unless it reverses current population trends, according to two studies.
Data released last week showed New York lost 48,510 people between July 2017 and July 2018 — the most of any state.
Projections by Politdata and Election Data Services say the Empire State is among 10 that stand to lose one member of Congress.
But the Empire State is the only one where the loss could grow to 2 of the current 27 representatives in the House.
At it's peak, between 1933 and 1953, New York had 45 seats.
"All the projection methods indicate New York will lose two congressional districts in 2020," Election Data Services warned.
The state could avert that disaster by adding 19,648 people in the next census count, experts said.
"By the time you get up to 2020, New York will probably lose two seats. I say probably because the kicker with New York, in this instance, is that you are very close and so the key, I think, for the state is any kind of effort that they do to make sure the census is counted correctly," said Kimball Brace, the president of Election Data Services.
"A complete count for New York has the potential of immediately being beneficial to you and keeping your loss at only one seat instead of two seats loss."
Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia are all on track to lose one seat.
The states that would get those seats include Texas – which could see two or three new Congressional districts – and Florida, which is on track to gain two. States that are expected to gain one seat include Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon.
Congressional seats are capped at 435 and are distributed based on population.
The state's current population was put at 19.54 million, still fourth highest in the nation after California, Texas and Florida.
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