Posted by Kevin Martin on Tuesday, Jul. 20th, 2010 at 5:33 PM
Once upon a time, there was a request for a performance-style ranking system. The prior rankings were developed by a well-meaning wizard as a comparative tool to see how the teams stacked up between the divisions. This was not-so-well understood by the warriors of the realm, and seen by many as an instrument of evil. The noble masses cried out for a new system that better answered the question, "Hey! What about me? I did well last session and want some recognition of that! At least give me a cookie, please." And even the numerically oriented wizard recognized that yes, cookies are a Greater Good. (Except for the nasty ones that track what you happened to have been scrying through your crystal ball and then try to come back and look into your private summoning chambers. Those are most certainly from the realm of evil. And probably have artificial sugar and raisins instead of chocolate chips. Truly evil.) Recognition of accomplishment over one season is the goal. Immediate gratification was sought in earnest. Surely, wins last session must count more than ongoing T11 development? And what of the true Giant Slayers? Does the conquering hero not deserve realm-wide accolade for besting the others and hoisting a Treasure of the Realm?
And lo, the cries were heard. Thus another perilous summoning was undertaken. Many seconds of sleep were selflessly sacrificed to bring forth the latest arithmetical creature: The MSWL-United Performance Rankings!
And with the intro out of the way, here's the details:
Wins count for points. Draws count for points, though less than wins. Losses get you nothing.
League wins matter, and the higher the division the more points you should get. A win in Div 3 against mostly inferior competition (in terms of SL, not managerial talent) is not as impressive as a win in Div 2, and probably only as impressive as a draw in Div 1.
Cup wins matter. The FA Cup was intended to be the flagship competition outside the league, so it gets the most points. Winning the FA Cup is a big deal, so advancing should matter more too. The FA Shield, on the other hand, is made up of those who already lost in the FA Cup opener, so winning that should not count for more than a first-round FA Cup win. The AP Cup starts against possibly some very easy competition and then progresses to matter more than the Shield, so the point totals for each round should reflect that. The Youth Cup is a more level playing field and ends about the same as the Shield. So keeping those principles in mind, point totals could be assigned to each match.
Specific notes:
1) FA Cup replays. A team that wins in the first meeting should not be punished for taking care of business at first chance. A team that draws and later wins shouldn't get more points than a team that simply won the first one. However, a team that got a draw should still get points for a draw. So winning a replay only gets you enough points to make up the difference that you would have earned winning the opener. Example: round 1 of FA Cup. Win = 6 points, Draw = 2. A win in the replay then would get you 4 points, to match the win total for the round.
2) Draws in Cup play. Winning by PKs takes more luck than skill. The losing team still gets credited as a draw by the program in terms of record and CP earned. These rankings reflect those ideals and current league programming structure. Both teams get the points for the draw. The team that won the PKs gets to advance and possibly earn more points in the next round. Thus, advancing through the stages by two draws (FA Cup) and subsequent PKs is worth less than advancing by an outright win.
3) Tie breaks. If equal on points, then tie break is more wins, then more draws, then goal differential, then goals scored, then more awesome mascot, then whoever was higher the prior session so the upstarts have to actually overtake the prior leader instead of just tying them.
The Points:
Performance Rankings Points per Match
Competition W D
Division 1 league match 4 2
Div 2 league match 3 1
FA Cup, R1, R2, Q 6 2
FA Cup, R1- R2- Q-replay 4 2
FA Cup Semifinal 8 5
FA Final 10 7
FA Shield, R1, Q 4 2
FA Shield Semifinal 5 3
FA Shield Final 6 4
AP Cup Group Match 2 1
AP Cup, R2, Q 4 2
AP Cup Semifinal 6 4
AP Cup Final 8 6
Youth Cup, R1, R2 3 2
Youth Cup, Q, Semi 5 3
Youth Cup Final 6 4
These are, of course, entirely arbitrary numbers that can be easily modified to better reflect the quality of win vs. draw or importance of a win in one match vs. another one.
For coding purposes, every match can have a pre-set point total assigned to it, as the matches occur on the same numbers each year. For example, match 7 will always be the 3rd match of AP Cup group play and Match 36 will always be the AP Cup Final (well, unless Al changes the entire league structure/schedule). The max possible points if a team won every possible match (won all 18 Div 1 matches and was the FA Cup, AP Cup, and Youth Cup champ, winning all matches with no draws along the way) is 158. Fewest points possible is 0 (all losses, all season). Possible points per competition are:
League - Div 1, 72. Div 2, 54. Div 3, 36 (18 matches each). FA Cup, 36 (5-8 matches). FA Shield, 19 (4 matches), (21 pts if you drew the FA Cup opener, then lost, 23 for 2 draws and PK loss in FA Cup opener/replay). AP Cup, 29 (7 matches). Youth Cup, 22 (5 matches).
This system would also allow a numerical basis for seeing who had "The Best Season Ever" or measure how a team stacked up this year as compared to prior seasons.
As an example of how the teams would stack up this season, here are the results as they would look heading into Session 9 of Season 5...
Performance Rankings, season 5, pre-session 8
Team Score W D L Rank
HER 83 16 8 4 1
TRA 79 20 3 5 2
NOR 67 13 5 5 3
BRE 61 15 3 6 4
CRD 61 12 6 8 5
BHA 57 18 7 2 6
PV 50 15 2 6 7
PNE 50 11 5 10 8
QPR 50 11 3 10 9
WAT 48 13 6 6 10
BRI 42 13 3 7 11
LEW 42 10 7 8 12
SHU 36 7 4 11 13
PLY 36 6 6 9 14
FOR 33 9 0 12 15
SWI 31 8 6 9 16
LIN 31 5 8 11 17
LEI 29 11 4 7 18
CRE 29 10 5 7 19
SU 28 9 2 11 20
CHF 26 6 4 14 21
WYC 23 8 3 9 22
WES 22 9 0 11 23
DER 22 7 2 12 24
LEE 21 7 5 9 25
SWA 21 6 4 11 26
DOR 18 6 2 12 27
DAG 18 3 6 13 28
OLA 9 3 3 14 29
COV 6 1 0 5 30
CAR 2 0 2 18 31
BLY 0 0 0 6 32
As always, with a first draft everything is open to interpretation and alteration. Comment away!
Hey hey tied for 7th ain't too bad!
John Holden on Wednesday, Jul. 21st, 2010 at 4:08 AM
Excellent introduction, Dr Martin. Certainly worth the price of admission.
At first glance, this looks pretty accurate based on season 5 results, though my mathematical skills are not nearly at the same level as the "numerically oriented wizard." I say any ranking system that keeps BHA above PV is a good one and has my blessing.
Brian Beerman on Wednesday, Jul. 21st, 2010 at 7:08 AM
How's a man supposed to sneak up on the blindside now? *SIGH*
Seriously, though, awesome work, as ever, K-Mart. Gold star.
Now if you could kindly arrange to lose the AP Cup final to keep me atop the pile...
Andy Bate on Wednesday, Jul. 21st, 2010 at 4:04 PM
I'll get right on that request, Mr. Bate! After all, just about anyone can eventually win a Cup in this league. How often do you get the chance to say that you've lost three straight AP Cup Finals though? Couple that with losing the FA Cup Final to Mr. Sellers in season one and CRD have a perhaps unrivaled ability to lose the Big One. I'd go ahead and start preparing your acceptance speech...
Kevin Martin on Wednesday, Jul. 21st, 2010 at 5:23 PM
Not much to add, Dr Martin. The point values you have assigned to the various games seems accurate enough for this dicsussion/purpose. Keeping this new performance ranking system simple is probably the best approach.
Brian Beerman on Friday, Jul. 30th, 2010 at 6:44 AM
I like the Performance Rankings system. I think it is a very efficient tool to help our league teams evaluate how they're doing in every season. Thanks to Kevin for his effort and hard work in putting this system together for us.
Abe Hamdali on Friday, Jul. 30th, 2010 at 11:29 AM