https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnival-cruises-to-see-modest-benefit-after-collapse-of-thomas-cook-analysts-say-51569251637
Carnival Cruises to See Modest Benefit After Collapse of Thomas Cook, Analysts Say
Updated Sept. 23, 2019 11:29 am ET / Original Sept. 23, 2019 11:13 am ET
Photograph by Oli Scarff/Getty Images
The fallout from the liquidation of U.K.-based Thomas Cook Group "could be a modest near-term positive" for the Carnival cruise operator, according to a research note.
Carnival (ticker: CCL) operates many brands, including P&O Cruises, which is popular among British customers. Carnival is the largest U.S. cruise operator by revenue. Thomas Cook, the oldest travel agent in Britain, collapsed over the weekend.
In early trading Monday, Carnival stock was at $47.66, down a little more than 1%.
"The near-term disruption from the liquidation of Thomas Cook's tour/hotel operations should result in UK/Continental European budget consumers looking to vacation/holiday options from stable operators," the Wells Fargo Securities note said.
In Carnival's most recent fiscal year, which ended last November, about 7% of its 12.4 million cruise guests were from Britain. An additional 19% came from Continental Europe.
Other Carnival brands that could benefit from the disruption include Costa and AIDA, Wells Fargo notes.
The analysts who wrote the report—Timothy Conder, Karen Tan, and Marc Torrente—added that they don't see other "primary cruise industry" companies benefiting from the Thomas Cook situation.
Those include Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH).
Wells Fargo has all three stocks at an Outperform.
Among the large U.S. cruise operators, Royal Caribbean ranks second in revenue, followed by Norwegian.
The fallout from the liquidation of U.