Hybrid GA-PSO Optimization of Artificial Neural Network for Forecasting Electricity Demand
Atul Anand, L Suganthi
Subject: Engineering, Energy & Fuel Technology Keywords: Electricity Demand; ANN; PSO; GA; Hybrid Optimization; Quadratic; Gross State Domestic Product; Forecasting.
In the present study, a hybrid optimizing algorithm has been proposed using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to improve the estimation of electricity demand of the state of Tamil Nadu in India. The GA-PSO model optimizes the coefficients of factors of gross state domestic product (GSDP), per capita demand, income and consumer price index (CPI) that affect the electricity demand. Based on historical data of 25 years from 1991 till 2015 , the simulation results of GA-PSO models are having greater accuracy and reliability than single optimization methods based on either PSO or GA. The forecasting results of ANN-GA-PSO are better than models based on single optimization such as ANN-BP, ANN-GA, ANN-PSO models. Further the paper also forecasts the electricity demand of Tamil Nadu based on two scenarios. First scenario is the "as-it-is" scenario , the second scenario is based on milestones set for achieving goals of "Vision 2023" document for the state. The present research also explores the causality between the economic growth and electricity demand in case of Tamil Nadu. The research indicates that the direct causality exists between GSDP and the electricity demand of the state.
Spectroscopic Determination of Water Salinity in Brackish Surface Water in Nandoni Dam, at Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa
Lebea N. Nthunya, Sebabatso Maifadi, Bhekie B. Mamba, Arne R. Verliefde, Sabelo D. Mhlanga
Subject: Chemistry, Analytical Chemistry Keywords: contamination; domestic use; Nandoni dam; salinity; water analysis
The problem of limited water supply in the Vhembe District (Limpopo Province, South Africa) is exacerbated by a preponderance of dissolved salts, which cause disagreeable taste and odour in the water as reported by the communities using this water for drinking. The water treatment plant that supplies the treated water to the communities in the District sources this raw water from the Nandoni Dam at the Livhuvu river catchment. However, there are no scientific studies that have been reported in the literature which focused on determining the levels of water salinity from various water sources in the municipalities of the District. Water samples from various sites across the Nandoni Dam, a primary source of domestic water supply in the region, were collected during all the seasons basis over a period of twelve months in order to ascertain the concentrations of dissolved salts in the dam. Onsite analyses of the water samples were conducted using the YSI ProDSS multimeter, while the laboratory water analyses were conducted using the spectroquant and atomic absorption spectrometers. Although salinity tests seem to indicate that the water sampled across most of the Nandoni Dam is brackish during all seasons of the year with the highest being 750 mg/L, water samples from the dam mid-outlet and the treatment plant are slightly below the WHO brackish water bracket of 500 mg/L with unfavourable taste for drinking. Results from this study indicate that the water sourced from the Nandoni Dam is not suitable for human consumption and therefore requires integrated water resource management, as well as robust and cost-effective water desalination treatment.
Public Water Supply and Sanitation Authorities: A Sustainable Domestic Water Management Strategy in Tanzania
Mesia Lufingo
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: community-owned water supply organization (COWSO); domestic water management strategy; water quality; water supply and sanitation authority (WSSA)
Water supply is a mandatory service for Tanzanians from respective legal public water utilities, and their sustainability reflects implementations of best management strategies at a local level. The objective of this study was to assess current approaches used in water quality and quantity management in Tanzania. This was achieved through secondary water data tends, on-site water quality assessments, visits of respective water supply and sanitation authorities, and assessment of their performances. It was observed that water supplied in rural-based authorities was quite different from that supplied in an urban setting as far as quality and quantity is concerned, urban-based supplies being of assistance to users over rural ones. A new strategy on water management is presented for sustainable water supply in Tanzania; it is based on controlling groundwater abstractions and preference of surface water in public water supplies. Rural water supply management must learn several practices realized at urban supplies for the betterment of respective majority water users.
Design and Analysis of Domestic Micro-Cogeneration Potential for an ORC System Adapted to a Solar Domestic Hot Water System
Daniel Leal-Chavez, Ricardo Beltran-Chacon, Paola Cardenas-Terrazas, Saul Islas, Nicolas Velazquez
Subject: Engineering, Energy & Fuel Technology Keywords: solar domestic cogeneration; Organic Rankine Cycle; acetone; evacuated tube solar collector
This paper proposes the configuration of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) coupled to a solar domestic hot water system (SDHWS), with the purpose of analyzing the cogeneration capacity of the system. A simulation of the SDHWS was conducted at different temperatures, observing its performance to determine the amounts of useable heat generated by the solar collector; thus, from an energy balance, the amount of heat that may be used by the ORC could be determined. The working fluid that would be suitable for the temperatures and pressures given in the system were selected. The best fluid for the given conditions of superheated vapor at 120 °C and 604 kPa and a condensation temperature of 60 °C and 115 kPa was acetone. The main parameters for the expander thermodynamic design that may be used in such ORC were obtained with the possibility of generating 443 kWh of annual electric energy, with 6.65 % global efficiency of solar to electric power, or an overall efficiency of the cogeneration system of 56.35 % with a solar collector of 2.84 m2.
Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in cats from Cyprus
Charalampos Attipa, Christos Yiapanis, Séverine Tasker, Anastasia Diakou
Subject: Life Sciences, Biochemistry Keywords: Toxoplasma gondii; domestic cat; seroprevalence; Cyprus
Toxoplasma gondii is a cosmopolitan protozoon parasite, and the causative agent of toxoplasmosis, one of the most prevalent zoonotic parasitic diseases. Cats, as definitive hosts, are spreaders of the parasite via their faeces, but this occurs only for a very short period in their life. Seropositivity in cats, although not associated with current shedding of the parasite, is indicative of the infection in a cat population and can be used to assess the infection risk for definitive and intermediate hosts in that area. In order to assess the prevalence of infection in cats living in Cyprus, 155 cats, originating from all districts of the country, were examined for the presence of T. gondii antibodies. Additionally, parameters such as age, sex, health status, lifestyle and concomitant infections were statistically assessed as potential risk factors for T. gondii seropositivity. Specific anti-T. gondii antibodies were detected in 50 (32.3%) cats, while the presence of feline immunodeficiency virus antibodies and a history of never having been vaccinated were statistically associated with T. gondii seropositivity on multivariate logistic regression model. This is the first report of T. gondii seroprevalence in cats in Cyprus and indicates that raised public awareness should be considered to prevent infection of animals and humans.
Individual Responses in the Domestic Horse Regarding Human Behaviour in Identical Settings
Kathrin Schütz, Annika Rötters, Lara Oebel
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, General Psychology Keywords: nonverbal communication; interspecific communication; domestic horse
Although there has been research regarding the response of horses to human behaviour, there is still a gap concerning the knowledge about the interaction of horses and humans in showing individual responses to different human behaviour in the same situation. In this work, the horses´ individual responses to different humans were examined to close this research gap and to identify whether or not horses actually respond differently to different people. To this end, 29 interactions between horses and humans, where the humans were supposed to lead the horse through a training course (including two identical exercises in each situation) were videoed and then transcribed in the style of the action-oriented system of notations HANOS (Handlungsorientiertes Notationssystem). The qualitative content analysis was appropriated on the basis of Mayring. Just nonverbal interactions between each person and one horse were focused. In total, just under 600 interactions were analyzed and categorized. The categories were then put into a chi-square-test (quantitative analyses). Based on these analyses, it can be assumed that each human individual received an individual, different feedback from the horses.
Microbiome Responses to Fecal Microbiota Transplantation in Cats with Chronic Digestive Issues
Connie Rojas, Zhandra Entrolezo, Jessica K. Jarett, Guillaume Jospin, Dawn Kingsbury, Alex Martin, Jonathan A. Eisen, Holly H Ganz
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Veterinary Medicine Keywords: fecal microbiota transplant; domestic cat; chronic enteropathies
There is growing interest in the application of fecal microbiota transplants (FMTs) in small animal medicine, but there are few published studies that have tested their effectiveness in the domestic cat (Felis catus). Here we use 16S rRNA gene sequencing to examine fecal microbiome changes in 68 domestic cats with chronic digestive issues that underwent FMT treatment using lyophilized stool that was delivered in oral capsules. Fecal samples were collected from FMT recipients before and two weeks after treatment, as well as from their stool donors, and healthy animals. We found that according to their owners, 77% of cats were reported to show improvement in their clinical signs (termed 'Responders'), and 23% were reported to exhibit no change or a worsening of their clinical signs (termed 'Non-Responders'). Variation in the fecal microbiomes of FMT recipients most strongly correlated with host clinical signs, diet, and IBD diagnosis. The relative abundances of Collinsella, Negativibacillus, Parabacteroides, and Peptoclostridium changed differentially in FMT recipients. Overall, on average 13% of the bacterial amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) were shared between stool donors and FMT recipients (excluding ASVs already present in FMT recipients prior to treatment). The most commonly shared ASVs were classified as Prevotella 9, Peptoclostridium, Bacteroides, Collinsella and unclassified Lachnospiraceae. Lastly, FMT recipients that had recently taken antibiotics exhibited increases in microbiome similarity to an age-matched healthy reference set compared to other cats. Cats that had diarrhea or diarrhea with vomiting became more similar to healthy cats than did cats exhibiting other clinical signs. Overall, our results suggest that oral capsule FMT treatment was effective in this group of cats and microbiome responses may be modulated by the FMT recipient's initial presenting clinical signs, prior IBD diagnosis, recent antibiotic use, and their diet.
Preprint SHORT NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0195.v1
On the Historical Association between NationalIQ and GDP per Capita
Nassim Dehouche
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: Intellectual Quotient; Gross Domestic Product; Correlation; History
A remarkable, unquestioned assumption in studies measuring the association between national average Intellectual Quotients (IQ) and Gross Domestic Products (GDP) per capita is that a supposedly immutable genetic factor (IQ) may be correlated with a markedly fluctuant one (the wealth of nations). Using historical GDP per capita data produced by the Maddison project, we find that, over history, the (Pearson productmoment) correlation coefficient (r) between average IQ and GDP per capita is highly variable and ranges from strong negative values to strong positive values. The correlation between national IQ and GDP per capita is thus a snapshot of the world order at some point in time, and historical data allow us to identify several other eras. Moreover, global GDP at any point in time is never difficult to predict in the first place. We show that arbitrary ad-hoc scores based on a country's continental location present a more significant correlation with contemporary GDP per capita. We conclude this paper by a call to clarify the purpose of IQ studies in Macroeconomics and for the consideration of GDP as a time-series in this line of research.
Marital Domestic Violence and Maternal Health in Nigeria: Evidence from the Demographic and Health Survey
Atsiya Pius Amos, Hauwa Mohammed Maimona, Godiya Atsiya Pius
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: Non-cooperative Household Model; Domestic Violence; Maternal Health
There is increasing evidence that the non-cooperative models describe household structures in developing countries more succinctly compared with the unitary model. Domestic violence against women, which is pervasive in Nigeria even though likely to be under-reported, will need to be understood within the framework of non-cooperative relationship between couples. In this study, we identify factors of domestic violence against women within couples who were currently in marital or cohabiting partnerships. Also, we investigate whether domestic violence influences the decision of women to terminate pregnancies. We use data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). Multivariate logistic regressions were used to model the predictors of domestic violence, and its influence on the decision to terminate pregnancies among married women. Of the 8,910 married women interviewed for domestic violence, 35.33% had ever experienced a form of domestic violence. We discover that women: with higher education, that is not poor, and resides in urban areas have 44%, 18% and 15% reductions in the odds of experience domestic violence respectively. On the other hand, women who are employed, own land, having husbands/partners that are employed in the agricultural sector, and drink alcohol have 1.16, 1.2, 2.07, and 2.8 times increased odds of experiencing domestic violence accordingly. Also, we uncover that currently married women experiencing domestic violence have 1.25 times increased odds of terminating pregnancies compared with their counterparts that are not experiencing domestic violence. Effectively, poverty, low levels of education, residing in rural areas, drinking habit of husbands/partners, employment, marital capital, and land ownership status of women are risk factors of domestic violence against married women in Nigeria but can be affected by policies and programmes. Importantly, public actions to contain domestic violence in order to improve maternal health should be implemented in the context of the dynamics of a non-cooperative relationship existing between married couples.
Human Bartonellosis: An Underappreciated Public Health Problem?
Monica Embers, Mercedes Cheslock
Subject: Life Sciences, Microbiology Keywords: Bartonella, vector, bartonellosis, ticks, fleas, domestic animals, human
Bartonella spp. bacteria can be found around the globe and are the causative agents of multiple human diseases. The most well-known infection is called cat-scratch disease, which causes mild lymphadenopathy and fever. As our knowledge of these bacteria grows, new presentations of disease have been recognized with serious manifestations. Not only has more severe disease been associated with these bacteria, but Bartonella species have also been discovered in a wide range of mammals and the pathogens' DNA can be found in multiple vectors. This review will focus on some common mammalian reservoirs as well as the suspected vectors in relation to disease transmission and prevalence. Understanding the complex interactions between these bacteria, their vectors, and reservoirs as well as the breadth of infection by Bartonella around the world will help toassess the impact of Bartonellosis on public health.
Risk Assessment of BTEX Concentration from Combustion of Coal in a Controlled Laboratory Environment
Daniel Masekameni, Raeesa Moolla, Mary Gulumian, Derk Brouwer
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: coal; BTEX; hazardous air pollutants; domestic fuel burning
A D-grade type coal was burned under simulated domestic practices in a controlled laboratory set-up, in order to characterize emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs); viz. benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX). Near-field concentrations were collected in a shack-like structure constructed using corrugated iron, simulating a traditional house found in informal settlements in South Africa. Measurements were carried out using the Synspec Spectras GC955 real-time monitor over a three-hour burn cycle. The 3-hour average concentrations (in µg/m3) of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, p-xylene and o-xylene were 919 ± 44, 2051 ± 91, 3838 ±19, 4245 41 and 3576 ± 49, respectively. The cancer risk for adult males and females in a typical SA household exposure scenario, was found to be 1.1 -1.2 and 110-120 folds higher than the US EPA designated risk severity indicator (1E-6), respectively. All four TEX compounds recorded the Hazard Quotient (HQ) of less than 1, indicating a low risk of developing related non-carcinogenic health effects. The HQ for TEX ranged from 0.001– 0.05, with toluene concentrations being the lowest and ethylbenzene the highest. This study has demonstrated that domestic coal burning may be a significant source of BTEX emission exposure.
'When she calls for help' – Domestic violence in Christian families
Leonie Westenberg
Subject: Arts & Humanities, Religious Studies Keywords: domestic violence; religion; families; women; abuse; theology; language
Carol Winkelmann, in her book 'The Language of Battered Women' describes not only the fact that domestic abuse is almost a daily occurrence in the lives of many women but that the language of religion and faith is often used by women in attempts to explain, understand and cope with such abuse . While religious belief and domestic violence may seem contradictory in terms of religious values of faith, virtue and love, research demonstrates that domestic violence in religious families and amidst religious congregations is prevalent. In fact, religious beliefs and practices are often embedded in cultural contexts and thus perpetuate patriarchal notions of dominance, power and submission. Abused Christian women, for example, are more likely to seek help from (male) ministers and others in positions of authority in their local church communities and are equally more likely to remain in or return to unsafe relationships, citing their religious beliefs to support their avoidance of 'family break-ups' because of abuse. What, then, is the response of ministers and church authorities to domestic abuse in their congregations? Despite recent calls for the training of pastors and other religious leaders in an understanding of domestic violence and in the recognition of appropriate, helpful responses, the language of some Christian churches can be seen to foster notions of submission so that women and pastors alike can appear confused concerning the experience of abuse. Religious congregations, while acting in love to help the poor and needy, for example, often fail to recognise domestic abuse amongst their own members and, indeed, such a topic can remain taboo in some church communities. Women, in turning to their pastors or other Christian leaders for help, can be silenced by the language of the religion itself, so that the role of wives and mothers may be seen to be submissive and the 'keeper of the home'; to leave an abusive relationship may thus 'break-up' a home and imply failure of the woman to understand her role and fulfil her 'maternal vocation'. On the other hand, religious beliefs offer victims of domestic violence both hope and comfort. Religious practices, such as prayer, liturgies and corporal (physical) works of mercy, can provide solace and practical assistance for women who suffer abuse. Domestic violence in religious congregations can be addressed within the context of the faith itself, with an emphasis on love and respect, helping women to understand their dignity with avenues of help so that the women can remove themselves and their children from abusive relationships, and the religious congregation and its leaders can call the partners to accountability. This paper seeks to outline a picture of domestic violence in religious congregations, specifically Christian church communities, by drawing on current research in the Western world. It then describes the language of some religious congregations that perpetuates domestic violence, with emphasis on contemporary studies in religious belief and domestic abuse. Finally, the paper makes some suggestions on how religious belief and practice can, in contrast to perpetuating abuse through norms, serve to assist women as victims of domestic violence, and how the connections between domestic violence and religious language or belief can be severed.
Does Foreign Direct Investment Crowd in or Crowd out Domestic Investment in South Africa? An ARDL-ECM Approach
Dumisani Pamba
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: FDI; Domestic Investment; Government Investment Expenditure; Economic Growth; Real exchange rate; Gross Domestic Savings; Trade openness; ARDL-ECM Approach and South Africa
The aim of this study is to empirically examine the link between foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic investment (DI) in South Africa over the period of 41 years (1975-2016). Accurately, it attempts to determine whether FDI crowds in or crowds out DI in South Africa. DI is sub-divided into private domestic investment (credit to domestic private sector) and public corporation investment (state owned enterprises). We used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) technique to ascertain long run and short run effects concurrently after establishing that the variables were stationary (using the PP test). The results of the unit root test shows that all variables are integrated of order zero I(0) or integrated of order one I(1), indicating that the series of variables are stationary in the level or first difference form. The findings revealed that variables are cointegrated in the long run. The ARDL model found a negative link between FDI and domestic investment. The result implies that FDI crowds out domestic investment. Moreover, the long run estimate revealed that domestic investment is crowded in by government investment expenditure (GINV). Other findings uncovered that, GDP crowds out private domestic investment while crowding in public corporation investment. Moreover, the long run estimate revealed that domestic investment is crowded in by gross domestic savings (SAV). On the other hand, the real exchange rate (EXCR) crowds out private domestic investment while crowding in public corporation investment. Trade openness (TRA) crowds out domestic investment. Additionally, the short run estimate uncovered that private domestic investment is crowded out by FDI, EXCR, and TRA whereas GINV, GDP and SAV is crowding in private domestic investment. Other findings discovered that, in the short run, public corporation investment is crowded out by FDI, GDP, EXCR and TRA, while GINV and SAV crowd in public corporation investment. The CUSUM confirms that the models are structurally firmness.
Towards Efficient Early Warning: Pathobiology of African Swine Fever Virus "Belgium 2018/1" in Domestic Pigs of Different Age Classes
Jutta Pikalo, Marie-Eve Schoder, Julia Sehl-Ewert, Angele Breithaupt, Ann Brigitte Cay, Coline Lhoëst, Willem van Campe, Laurent Mostin, Paul Deutschmann, Hanna Roszyk, Martin Beer, Sandra Blome, Marylène Tignon
Subject: Life Sciences, Biochemistry Keywords: African swine fever virus, Belgium, virulence, clinical course, domestic pigs
African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important and devastating viral diseases in wild boar and domestic pigs worldwide. In the absence of vaccines or treatment options, early clinical detection is key and requires sound knowledge of disease characteristics. To provide practitioners and state veterinarians with detailed information, the objective of the present study was to characterize the ASF virus (ASFV) isolate "Belgium 2018/1" in subadult and weaning domestic pigs. To this end, two animal trials were performed. Trial A included eight subadult domestic pigs and trial B five weaner pigs. In general, clinical signs and pathological lesions were in line with previous studies utilizing highly virulent ASF genotype II viruses. However, in trial A, four subadult domestic pigs survived and recovered pointing to an age dependent outcome. The long-term fate of those survivors remains under discussion and would need further investigations.
Molecular Characteristics of Carnivore Protoparvovirus 1 With High Sequence Similarity Between Wild and Domestic Carnivores in Taiwan
Ai-Mei Chang, Chen-Chih Chen
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: Carnivore protoparvovirus 1; wild carnivores; domestic carnivore; virus transmission; Taiwan
Carnivore protoparvovirus 1 (CPPV-1) is a DNA virus causing gastrointestinal disease and immunosuppression in various terrestrial carnivores. Domestic dogs and cats are considered the primary CPPV-1 reservoirs. The habitat overlaps of wild carnivores and free-roaming dogs increases the threat of CPPV-1 transmission between them. This study explored the CPPV-1 distribution among wild carnivores through PCR screening and compared the DNA sequences of the partial capsid protein (VP2) between wild and domestic carnivores. In total, 181 samples were screened for the CPPV-1 VP2 gene, including 32 masked palm civets (Paguma larvata), 63 Chinese ferret badgers (Melogale moschata), and 86 crab-eating mongooses (Herpestes urva), from 2015 to 2019 in Taiwan. The average prevalence of CPPV-1 was 17.7% (32/181), with the highest prevalence in masked palm civets (37.5%). In addition, a masked palm civet was coinfected with two CPPV-1 strains. Among the 33 partial VP2 gene sequences, 23 were identical to sequences amplified from domestic dogs and cats in Asia and the remaining 10 were identified for the first time. This study demonstrated that CPPV-1 has circulated between domestic and wild carnivores in rural Taiwan. Therefore, further population control and health management of free-roaming domestic carnivores are recommended.
Effect of Domestic and Global Environmental Events on Environmental Concern and Environmental Responsibility among University Students
Piyapong Janmaimool, Surapong Chudech
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: global environmental concerns; domestic environmental concerns; environmental attitudes; environmental responsibility
Recently, both global and domestic environmental events have been occurring more frequently, bringing catastrophic consequences to humans and the environment. These adverse events have caused widespread concern among the general public. In positive terms, these devastating events could potentially enhance people's environmental awareness, which, in turn, could instill a greater sense of environmental responsibility. This study aims to investigate how university students concern themselves with global and domestic catastrophic environmental events and to examine how global and domestic environmental concerns mediate the effect of environmental knowledge and attitudes on university students' environmental responsibility. Students of King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi in Bangkok, Thailand were selected as the participants. A simple random technique was applied to select the research participants. Questionnaire surveys with 863 students were carried out during September–October 2019. A path analysis was performed to test how global and local environmental concerns mediate the effect of environmental knowledge and attitudes on university students' environmental responsibility. The results demonstrated that domestic environmental concerns, taken alone, contributed less to the students' sense of environmental responsibility. Domestic environmental concerns had a stronger effect on environmental responsibility when taken together with global environmental concerns. In addition, both domestic and global environmental concerns could help transform environmental knowledge and attitudes into environmental responsibility. Only environmental attitudes had no direct effect on responsibility. These results show that domestic and global catastrophic environmental events could raise students' levels of concern for the environment, and, ultimately, enhance their sense of responsibility to protect the environment.
Does Minor Crops (Bajra, Barley and Jowar) Have Significant Association to Agriculture Sector of Pakistan? An Empirical Investigation
Abdul Rehman, Abbas Ali Chandio
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: Pakistan; bajra; barley; jowar; crops production; agricultural gross domestic product
This paper investigates and explores the minor crops production in Pakistan and its association with the agricultural gross domestic product. The agriculture sector of Pakistan has a rich contribution to the economic growth and development. Like major crops; minor crops also have a vital role to boost up the agriculture sector. Time span data was used in this study and it was collected from the Economy Survey of Pakistan annual reports. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method was used to analyze the data and results were interpreted by employing the Johansen co-integration test. Study results reveal that bajra, barely and jowar has a significant impact on the agricultural gross domestic product, while the total cropped area has a negative impact on AGDP. On the basis of the study results, we recommend the policy implications.
Genetic Diversity of Porcine Circovirus 2 Subtypes in Wild Boar and Domestic Pigs in Ukraine
Nataliia Rudova, Jeremy Buttler, Ganna Kovalenko, Mykola Sushko, Vitaliy Bolotin, Larysa Muzykina, Oleksandr Zinenko, Borys Stegniy, Yurii Dunaiev, Mykola Sytiuk, Anton Gerilovych, Devin M. Drown, Eric Bortz, Oleksii Solodiankin
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: porcine circovirus; PCV2; domestic pig; wild boar; subtype; phylogenetics; MinION; Ukraine
Porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) is responsible for a number of porcine circovirus associated diseases (PCAD) that can severely impact domestic pig herds. For a non-enveloped virus with a small genome (1.7 kb ssDNA), PCV2 is remarkably diverse, with 8 subtypes (a-h). New subtypes of PCV2 can spread through migration of wild boars, which are thought to infect domestic pigs and spread further through the domestic pig trade. Despite a large swine population, the diversity of PCV2 subtypes in Ukraine has been undersampled, with few PCV2 genome sequences reported in the past decade. To gain a deeper understanding of PCV2 subtype diversity in Ukraine, samples of blood serum were collected from wild boars (n = 107) that were hunted in Ukraine during the November-December 2012 hunting season. We found 34/107 (31.8%) prevalence of PCV2 by diagnostic PCR. For domestic pigs, liver samples (n = 16) were collected from a commercial market near Kharkiv in 2019, of which 6/16 (37%) were positive for PCV2. We sequenced the genotyping locus ORF2, a gene encoding the PCV2 viral capsid (Cp), for 11 wild boar and 6 domestic pig samples in Ukraine using an Oxford Nanopore MinION device. Of 17 samples with resolved subtypes, PCV2 subtype b was most common in wild boar (10/11, 91%), while domestic pigs were infected with subtypes b and d. We also detected subtype b/d and b/a co-infections in wild boar and domestic pigs, respectively, and subtype f in a wild boar from Poltava for the first time in Ukraine. Building a maximum likelihood phylogeny, we identified a sublineage of PCV2 subtype b infections in both wild and domestic swine, suggesting a possible epizootic cluster and ecological interaction in northeastern Ukraine.
The Contribution of Commercial Banks to GDP Growth in Nigeria Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model
Monday Osagie Adenomon, Godson Obinna Ogujiofor, Clara Adebukola Adenomon
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: gross domestic product (GDP); lending rates; savings; loans and advances; ARDL
In most econometrics literature, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is often applied in many economic analyses to study short and long run relationships. This is because ARDL model can deal with economic variables that are integrated of different order (I(0), I(1) or combination of both) and also it is robust where there is single long-run relationship between the underlying variables in a simple sample size. This study applied the ARDL model to examine the contributions of commercial Banks to GDP growth in Nigeria. To achieve this, annual data covering 1981 to 2015 for loans and advances, savings, lending rates and GDP of Financial Institutions were collected from CBN bulletin. The ADF test revealed that the variables are I(1) except for lending rate which was of I(0) order. The ARDL(1,1,1,2) model revealed that loans and advances, and lending rates are significantly positively related to GDP in Nigeria but savings was not significant in the model. The model revealed some evidence of short run relationships while the ecm(-1) was -0.6156 (P-value=0.0038<0.05) which means that the rate of the speed of adjustment to equilibrium is 61.56% annually. The estimated model is free from serial correlation, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity while the model is stable and the residuals are normally distributed. The study recommends that savings and savings culture should be encouraged in Nigeria since economic theory states that savings and investment are related in any economic development.
Relationships of Lower Lung Fibrosis, Pleural Disease, and Lung Mass with Occupational, Household, Neighborhood, and Slate Roof-Dense Area Residential Asbestos Exposure
Dongmug Kang, Yu-Young Kim, Minseung Shin, Min-Su Lee, Hee-Joo Bae, Se-Young Kim, Young-Ki Kim
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: asbestos; domestic; environmental; health impact survey; household; Korea; neighbor; roof; slate
This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between various asbestos exposure routes and asbestos-related disorders (ARDs). The study population comprised 11,186 residents of a metropolitan city who lived near asbestos factories, shipyards, or in slate roof-dense areas. ARDs were defined from chest X-rays indicating lower lung fibrosis (LFF), pleural disease (PD), and lung masses (LMs). Of the subjects, 11.2%, 10.4%, 67.2% and 8.3% were exposed to asbestos via occupational, household, neighborhood, and slate roof routes, respectively. Regarding adjusted confounders and other exposure routes, the odds ratio (OR) of PD from household exposure (i.e., living with asbestos-producing workers) was 1.9 (95% confidence interval: 0.9–4.2), and that of LLF and PD from neighborhood exposure, or residing near asbestos factories) for <19 or >20 years, or near a mine, were 4.1 (2.8–5.8) and 4.8 (3.4–6.7), 8.3 (5.5–12.3) and 8.0 (5.5–11.6), and 4.8 (2.7–8.5) and 9.0 (5.6–14.4), respectively. The ORs of LLF, PD, and LM among those residing in slate-dense areas were 5.5 (3.3–9.0), 8.8 (5.6–13.8), and 20.5 (10.4–40.4), respectively. Substantial proportions of citizens residing in industrialized city have potentially been exposed to asbestos, and various exposure routes are associated with the development of ARDs. Notably, this may be the first finding of the health effects of slate roof exposure. However, given the limitations of this study, including potential confounders such as socioeconomic status, further research is needed.
Effect of Potassium Chlorate on the Treatment of Domestic Sewage by Achieving Shortcut Nitrification in Constructed Rapid Infiltration System
Qinglin Fang, Wenlai Xu, Zhijiao Yan, Lei Qian
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: shortcut nitrification; constructed rapid infiltration system; potassium chlorate inhibition; domestic sewage
Constructed rapid infiltration system (CRI) is a new type of sewage biofilm treatment technology, but due to its anaerobic zone lacks of the carbon sources and the condition for nitrate retention, its nitrogen removal perfomance is very poor; However, shortcut nitrification-denitrification process presents distinctive advantages, as it saves oxygen, requires less organic matter and needs less time for denitrification compared to conventional nitrogen removal method. Thus, if the shortcut nitrification-denitrification process could be applied to CRI system properly, the simpler, more economic and efficient nitrogen removal method will be obtained. But, as its reaction process shows that the first and the most important step of achieving shortcut nitrification-denitrification is to achieve shortcut nitrification. Thus, in this study, we explored the feasibility to achieve shortcut nitrification, which produces nitrite as the dominant nitrogen species in effluent, by addition of potassium chlorate (KClO3) to the influent. In an experimental CRI model system, the effects on nitrogen removal, nitrate inhibition and nitrite accumulation were studied, and the advantages of achieving shortcut nitrification-denitrification were also analysed. The results showed that shortcut nitrification was successfully achieved and maintained in a CRI system by adding 5 mM KClO3 to the influent at a constant pH of 8.4. Under these conditions nitrite accumulation rate was increased, while a lower concentration of 3 mM KClO3 had no obvious effect. The addition of 5 mM KClO3 in influent presumably allowed sufficient activity of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) but inhibited nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB) strongly enough to result in a maximum nitrite accumulation rate of up to over 80%. As a result, nitrite became the dominant nitrogen product in the effluent. Moreover, if the shortcut denitrification will be achieved in the subsequent research, it could save 60.27 mg carbon source (CH3OH) consumption when treatment of per liter sewage in CRI system compared with full denitrification process.
Investment and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis for Tanzania
Manamba Epaphra, John Massawe
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: public investment; domestic private investment; FDI; crowding out effect; economic growth
This paper analyzes the causal effect between domestic private investment, public investment, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Tanzania during the 1970-2014 period. The modified neo-classical growth model is used to estimate the ieffect of investment on economic growth. Also, the economic growth models based on Phetsavong and Ichihashi (2012) [1], and Le and Suruga (2005) [2]are used to estimate the crowding out effect of public investment on domestic private investment on one hand and foreign direct investment on the other hand. In the same way, the crowding out effect of foreign direct investment on domestic private investment is estimated. A correlation test is applied to check the correlation among independent variables, and the results show that there is very low correlation suggesting that multicollinearity is not a serious problem. Moreover, the diagnostic tests including RESET regression errors specification test, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, Jacque-Bera-normality test and white heteroskedasticity test reveal that the model has no signs of misspecification and that, the residuals are serially uncorrelated, normally distributed and homoskedastic. Broadly, the empirical results show that the domestic private investment and foreign direct investment play an important role in economic growth in Tanzania. Besides, a revealed negative, albeit weak, association between public and private investment suggests that the positive effect of domestic private investment on economic growth becomes smaller when public investment-to-GDP ratio exceeds 8-10 percent. Similarly, foreign direct investment tends to marginally reduce the impact of domestic private investment on growth. These results suggest that public investment and foreign direct investment need to be considered carefully in order to avoid a reduced positive impact of domestic private investment on growth. Domestic saving may be promoted to encourage domestic investment for economic growth.
Development of A Process For Domestic Wastewater Treatment Using Moringa Oleifera for Pathogens and Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria Inhibition under Tropical Conditions
Nini Sané, Amandine Laffite, Stöll Serge, Mbengue Malick, Pote Joh, Le Coustumer Philippe
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: domestic wastewater; biological contamination; wastewater treatment plant; Moringa oleifera; an-tibiotic resistance
Developing countries are confronted with general issues of municipal wastewater management and treatment. Untreated faecal sludges and wastewaters from septic tanks and traditional toilet are rejected into rivers and sometimes using for urban agriculture without any treatment to reduce the biorisk. Consequently, there are potential environmental and public health risks. In this study, a wastewater treatment plant prototype coupled with Moringa Oleifera seeds treatment was developed to evaluate their effectiveness for the reduction of faecal indicator bacteria and antibiotics resistant bacteria in domestic wastewater. Results indicate that our performed prototype system presents high capacity to reduce bacteria with abatements up to 99.34%. High reductions of bacteria load were obtained after add of Moringa Oleifera seeds into waters, with reductions varied from 36.6-78.8% for E. coli, 28.3-84.6% for Faecal coliform, 35.3-95.6% for Vibrio cholerae and 32.1-92.4% for total flora. Same effects of Moringa Oleifera seeds were noted for reducing antibiotic resistant bacteria, Extended Spectrum Beta-lactamases and Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae with abatements up to 98% for E. coli and faecal coliform, 100% for Vibrio cholerae and 91.96% for total flora. Our results supported high capacity of Moringa Oleifera seeds as an excellent alternative for pathogens and antibiotics resistant bacteria reduction/purification from domestic wastewater
Investigate the Co-Movement Relationship between Medical Expenditure and GDP in Taiwan – Base on Wavelet Analysis
Hsin-Pei Hsueh, Chien-Ming Wang, Cheng-Feng Wu, Fangjhy Li
Subject: Social Sciences, Economics Keywords: gross domestic product; medical expenditures; Wavelet analysis; co-movement relationship; health insurance
The universal health insurance system in Taiwan was formed with good intentions to help vulnerable groups. However, the possibility of bankrupting the system due to wasted medical resources. In this study, using the medical expenditures of the Taiwanese Government and gross domestic product (GDP) as variables, the wavelet analysis method was used to empirically study the correlations and leading-lagging relationships in quarterly data in the period from 1996 to 2016. In addition, the dependent population of the insured was used as the control variable. This population had no income and had high medical demands. Results: After the dependent population was included as a control variable, there was a period of low-frequency (one to four years short-term) linkage correlation, as well as a period of high-frequency (four to eight years long-term) linkage correlation. In addition, for more than eight years, there was also a high degree of linkage correlation, indicating that the linkage between medical expenditures and GDP occurred over the long term. Moreover, since medical expenditures positively affected GDP, one-way causality was observed. However, after 2008, regardless of whether a long or short term was examined, there was almost no linkage correlation. Before 2008, the medical expenditures of the government were positively correlated with economic growth; i.e., they enhanced economic growth. But, after 2008, this effect had already disappeared. The universal health insurance system has long been denounced as a waste of medical resources, and the waste must be immediately stopped. The government urgently needs to find a new solution.
Salmonella Surveillance Systems in Swine and Humans in Spain: A Review
Marta Martínez-Avilés, Macarena Garrido-Estepa, Julio Álvarez, Ana de la Torre
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Veterinary Medicine Keywords: Zoonoses, food-borne, disease control, public health, domestic livestock, pigs, One health
Non-typhoid salmonellosis is a common and problematic foodborne zoonotic disease in which pork and pork products can be an important potential source of infection. In order to prevent this disease important efforts to monitor the situation in the main source, livestock, are conducted in most developed countries. In the European Union EFSA and ECDC compile information at the member state level, even though important differences in production systems and surveillance systems exist. Here, Salmonella surveillance systems in one of the main sources of foodborne salmonellosis, swine, and humans in Spain were reviewed to identify potential gaps and discuss potential ways of integration under a One Health approach. Despite the extensive information generated through the surveillance activities source attribution can be only routinely performed through ad-hoc outbreak investigations, and national reports on human outbreaks do not provide sufficiently detailed information to gain a better understanding of the epidemiology of the pathogen. Human and animal monitoring of Salmonella would benefit from a better exchange of information and collaboration. Analysis of spatio-temporal trends in livestock and humans could help to identify likely sources of infection and to target surveillance efforts in areas with higher prevalence or where specific strains are found.
Consumption in Russia: Real Values and Impact on GDP
S. M. Borodachev
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: gross domestic product; Leontief dynamic model; investments in production capital; Kalman filter
This paper based on systems - theoretic approach to the definition of a country's GDP as not directly observable characteristic of system state. Leontief dynamic model is generalized to take into account the stimulating effect of consumption on GDP growth. In consumption, apart from final consumption, terms are considered: balance of foreign trade, fictitious investments and hidden costs. The Kalman filter uses Rosstat's gross output (for system output) and final consumption (for system control) data from 1995 to 2015. It is concluded that if in the years 2014, 2015 it was possible to increase consumption by 5% by, say, price cuts or some increase in money supply, then GDP would be greater by about 2.5%. GDP real values in recent years are most likely greater than official values. Fictitious investments and hidden costs are found in the amount of up to third the value of final consumption. The accuracy of one-year forecasts of true GDP by the methodology of this article is approximately 1.5%.
Taking a Promising Vaccine Candidate Further: Efficacy of ASFV-G-ΔMGF after Intramuscular Vaccination of Domestic Pigs and Oral Vaccination of Wild Boar
Paul Deutschmann, Tessa Carrau, Julia Sehl-Ewert, Jan Hendrik Forth, Elisenda Viaplana, Jose Carlos Mancera, Alicia Urniza, Martin Beer, Sandra Blome
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: African swine fever; vaccination; efficacy; domestic pigs; wild boar; oral vaccine; intramuscular vaccine
African swine fever (ASF) is a pandemic threat to the global pig industry and wild suids. A safe and efficacious vaccine could monumentally assist in disease eradication. In the past years, promising live attenuated vaccine candidates emerged in proof-of-concept experiments, among them, "ASFV-G-∆MGF". In our study, we tested the vaccine candidate in three animal experiments intramuscularly in domestic pigs one orally in wild boar. Further, a macrophage-grown vaccine virus and a virus grown on permanent cells could be employed. Irrespective of the production system of vaccine virus, a two-dose intramuscular immunization could induce close to sterile immunity with full clinical protection against challenge infection. After oral immunization, 50% of the vaccinees seroconverted and all responders were completely protected against subsequent challenge. All non-responders developed ASF upon challenge with two acute lethal infections and two mild and transient courses. The latter results show a lower efficiency after oral administration that would have to be taken into consideration when designing vaccination-based control measures. Our findings suggest that "ASFV-G-∆MGF" could help to contain the disease under an appropriate vaccination campaign. Further research is needed to characterize safety aspects and define possible improvements of oral efficiency.
Comparative Pathology of Domestic Pigs and Wild Boar Infected with the Moderately Virulent African Swine Fever Virus Strain "Estonia 2014"
Julia Sehl, Jutta Pikalo, Alexander Schäfer, Kati Franzke, Katrin Pannhorst, Ahmed Elnagar, Ulrike Blohm, Sandra Blome, Angele Breithaupt
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: African swine fever virus; virulence; pathology; wild boar; domestic pig; macroscopy; histopathology; immunology
Endemically infected European wild boar are considered a major reservoir of African swine fever virus in Europe. While high lethality was observed in the majority of field cases, strains of moderate virulence occurred in the Baltic States. One of these, "Estonia 2014", led to a higher number of clinically healthy, antibody-positive animals in the hunting bag of North-Eastern Estonia. Experimental characterization showed high virulence in wild boar but moderate virulence in domestic pigs. Putative pathogenic differences between wild boar and domestic pigs are unresolved and comparative pathological studies are limited. We here report on a kinetic experiment in both subspecies. Three animals each were euthanized at 4, 7 and 10 days post infection (dpi). Clinical data confirmed higher virulence in wild boar although macroscopy and viral genome load in blood and tissues were comparable in both subspecies. The percentage of viral antigen positive myeloid cells tested by flow cytometry did not differ significantly in most tissues. Only immunohistochemistry revealed consistently higher viral antigen loads in wild boar tissues in particular 7 dpi, whereas domestic pigs already eliminated the virus. The moderate virulence in domestic pigs could be explained by a more effective viral clearance.
An Econometric Assessment of the Impact of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Inflation in Nigeria (1981-2017)
Kenneth Apeh, Abubakar Muhammad Auwal, Nweze Nwaze Obinna
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: Exchange rate, Inflation rate; Gross Domestic Product, Broad Money, Monetary Policy, ARDL Cointegration
The present reality of the Nigerian economy is the fact that inflation has remained unabated in spite of all exchange rate measures that have been adopted by the monetary authority. This calls for investigation into the extent to which exchange rate impact on inflation in Nigeria. The research paper examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1981–2017, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Cointegration Procedure. The research shows that inflation rate in Nigeria is highly susceptible to lagged inflation rate, exchange rate, lagged exchange rate, lagged broad money, and lagged gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. A long run relationship was also found to exist between inflation rate, gross domestic product and general government expenditure, indicating that the model has a self-adjusting mechanism for correcting any deviation of the variables from equilibrium. Therefore, this study concludes that exchange rate is an important tool to manage inflation in the country; thus, this paper recommends that policies that have direct influence on inflation as well as exchange rate policies that would checkmate inflation movement in the country, should be used by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Also, monetary growth and import management policies should be put in place to encourage domestic production of export commodities, which are currently short-supplied. In addition, policy makers should not rely on this instrument totally to control inflation, but should use it as a complement to other macro-economic policies.
The Typology and Topography of Child Abuse and Neglect: The Experience of a Tertiary Children's Centre
Geoff Debelle, Nikolaos Efstathiou, Rafiyah Khan, Annette Williamson, Manjit Summan, Julie Taylor
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pediatrics Keywords: child maltreatment; administrative data; domestic violence/abuse; physical abuse; burns; neglect; emotional abuse; poverty
Good child protection systems and processes require reliable and accurate data. A retrospective study of the case records of 452 children referred to a major UK children's tertiary centre for suspected child maltreatment was undertaken to determine whether routinely collected data on a child's journey through the child protection system, together with a study of related multidimensional factors, can be used to develop an enhanced dataset to protect children in the UK and in other countries. Child maltreatment was substantiated in 65% of referred cases, with the vast majority of referrals coming from children living in the most deprived neighbourhoods in the country. Domestic violence and abuse, and the child's previous involvement with statutory bodies was associated with case substantiation. Physical abuse predominated, with soft tissue injuries, including dog bites, and burns. Burns were related almost exclusively to supervisory neglect. There were also cases of medical neglect. Emotional abuse was associated with exposure to domestic violence and abuse, and to self-harm. The strengths and weaknesses for single centre data systems were explored, concluding with a recommendation to establish an agreed national and international minimum data set to protect children from maltreatment.
Beyond Food Security: Challenges in Food Safety Policies Based on International Certifications along a Heterogeneous Food Chain. Its Effects in Mexican´s Health and Poverty
Yesica Mayett-Moreno, Jennie Sheerin Popp, Philip Crandall
Subject: Social Sciences, Business And Administrative Sciences Keywords: domestic markets; small producers; retailers; informal restaurants; low-income population; minister of health; well-being
Taking four of the United Nations Development Goals as reference, this overview describes the need to see from a systemic perspective, the food certifications programs along the food chain in Mexico as today food certifications are voluntary. Using secondary data, the main objectives were: a) there is a fall short in food safety policies and those federal agencies responsible for food safety, to guarantee safe food along the whole domestic food chain, especially in that for low income players; b) the amount of the Mexican Federal Budget Expenses devoted to safety food issues is really low, considering the health, well- being, and food security consequences; and c) due the structural heterogeneity of the Mexican food market, there is a lack of coordination in food regulations along all agents of the food supply chain, bringing to alternate informal markets that put at risk peoples´ health, increasing poverty and inequalities. According to this exercise, only 0.7- 8.7% of producers, 12.5% of supermarkets as well as 42.8% of restaurants would have some type of certifications. Public policies must attend this issue in order to improve food safety and security for the whole population, reducing inequalities, poverty and ensuring them a healthy live.
A Review of Roof and Pond Rainwater Harvesting System: The Design, Performance and Way Forward
Husnna Aishah Zabidi, Hui Weng Goh, Chun Kiat Chang, Ngai Weng Chan, Nor Azazi Zakaria
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: domestic water demand; pond harvesting system; roof harvesting system; rainwater harvesting system; water scarcity; stormwater management
This paper reviews the design and component of two types of RWHS, namely roof harvesting system (RHS) and pond harvesting system (PHS). The performance in terms of quantity and quality of collected rainwater and energy consumption for RWHS with different capacities were evaluated, as well as the benefits and challenges particularly in environmental, economic and social aspects. Presently, RHS is more commonly applied but its effectiveness is limited by its small scale. The PHS is of larger scale and has greater potentials and effectiveness as an alternative water supply system. Results also indicate the many advantages of PHS especially in terms of economics, environmental aspects and volume of water harvested. While RHS may be suited to individual or existing buildings, PHS has greater potentials and should be applied in newly developed urban areas with wet equatorial climate.
Male Violence Against Women: An Exploratory Study of Its Manifestations, Causes, and Discrepancies over Jordanian Women under Corona Pandemic
yousef kataybeh
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: Domestic violence, crimes against women, the impact of Corona on the family, male domination, women in Jordanian culture
Objectives: The study aimed to uncover the percentages of battered women in Jordan, its causes, forms, and relationship to several social factors. Methodology: The study was conducted on a random, targeted sample of (1308) women based on social sample survey method and electronic questionnaire tool for data collection, the Descriptive statistical method and chi-square test were used to examine statistically significant differences. Results: The study found that the percentage of battered women reached 17.1% during Corona pandemic in 2020, and the increase in men's violence against women during this period of was in large and medium degrees according to the sample. Husbands were the most practicing violence against their wives at 37.5%, followed by fathers against daughters at 28.6%, and brothers against sisters at 26.8%. The causes of male violence are due to social factors represented by male domination culture, interference by family and relatives, and economic factors represented by the high cost of living, low household income and poverty. The most common forms of violence are verbal, physical, and psychological. The study found that women in southern Jordan, who are poorer and less educated, and who live in a large family, are the most abused. The study recommended activating family and community service and reform offices, solving problems of deteriorating economic situation and individual poverty, and enlightening community awareness of the dangers of domestic violence.
Bayesian VAR Modeling and Forecasting of the Dynamic Interrelationship between Economic Growth and Revenue from Oil and Non-Oil Sectors in Nigeria
Monday Osagie Adenomon
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR), Modeling, Forecasting, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Economic Growth, Revenue, Oil sector, Non-oil Sector
The present reality about the Nigerian economy calls for investment and development in the non-oil sector. This becomes necessary as a result of fall in the oil price in the global market. This paper examined the Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) modeling and forecasting of the dynamic interrelationship between Economic growth and revenue from the oil and non-oil sectors in Nigeria. To achieve this, annual data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), revenue from oil and non-oil sectors were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin, the sample from 1981 to 2008 was used for analysis, while sample from 2009 to 2014 was used for model validation. Six (6) versions of Sims-Zha BVAR models were compared for out-of-sample forecast, the result revealed the superiority of the BVAR6 model over the other BVAR models. Lastly, evidence from the decomposition forecast errors revealed that revenue of oil sector contributed 7.69% to GDP while revenue from non-oil sector contributed 0.12% to GDP in Nigeria. This paper therefore recommended that the present government should encourage investment that is geared toward development in the non-oil sector, of which it has the capacity to improve the Economic growth of the Nigerian economy.
An Extensive Review of Health and Economy of Bangladesh Amid Covid-19 Pandemic
Abdul Kader Mohiuddin
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: domestic violence during lockdown; healthcare denial; poor adherence to self-quarantine; natural Disasters amid Covid-19; repatriation of migrant workers; supply chain crisis
COVID-19 has affected 212 countries around the world, killing nearly 300,000 and infecting more than 4.4 million by May 14, 2020. Bangladesh, a South Asian low-middle-income economy, has experienced a demographic and epidemiological transition with rapid urbanization and a gradual increase in life expectancy. It is the seventh most populous country in the world and population of the country is expected to be nearly double by 2050. The increasing burden of communicable diseases in Bangladesh can be attributable to rapid urbanization and nearly 50% of all slum dwellers of the country live in Dhaka division. In 2017, National Rapid Response Team of IEDCR investigated 26 incidents of disease outbreak. The joint survey of the Power and Participation Research Centre and BRAC Institute of Governance and Development reveals that per capita daily income of urban slum and rural poor drops by 80% due to present countrywide shutdown enforced by the government to halt the spread of Covid-19. 40%-50% of these population took loans to meet the daily expenses. However, the country has just 127,000 hospital beds, 91,000 of them in government-run hospitals. Researchers say, the country's economy is economy is losing BDT 33 billion every day from its service and agriculture sectors during the nationwide shutdown.