THE SHOTS IN DEALEY PLAZA
A scenario of the shots in Dealey Plaza
Configuration of Shooters
Stemmons Freeway Sign
Copyright © 2010, 2011 by William Orchard
Revised 6/2/11, 6/27/11, 7/29/11, 10/28/11, 11/25/11
It is no longer necessary to prove that the Warren Commission was wrong about the shots in Dealey Plaza. What is necessary is focusing on the totality of circumstances and creating a shot scenario that assassination researchers can agree upon. With such a scenario in hand we can concentrate on other unresolved issues and someday push through to a conclusion. My hope is that the following scenario is or is close to the one we can agree on.
I was guided by several assumptions. No witnesses described Dealey Plaza as a "war zone" or a "shooting gallery." Witness estimates range from three to eight shots fired. Consequently I maintained a doctrine of economy of shots. However, it is clear that the shooters were confident of their ability to control the crime scene. Knowing that the FBI would manage the cover story, I believe the assassination planners were more concerned with killing the President than with giving the FBI a clean crime scene. The decision to pin an inferior Italian rifle on the patsy was a sign of disrespect for the FBI. There was also a tactical reason for choosing the 6.5 mm Mannlicher-Carcano and that is described in the narrative. I assumed that the shooters were professionals who chose locations that maximized cover, effective shots and ease of escape. I assumed that every shot was a credible attempt to hit the president. The exception was the Texas School Book Depository, which was chosen to incriminate Oswald and not for its desirability as a shooting location. I also believe that the shooter in the Oswald window was not expected to hit anything, a fact he probably was not aware of.
After nearly half a century emotions still run high in Kennedy assassination research. Emotions notwithstanding, a scenario of the shots in Dealey Plaza has to address the following twenty-two items.
1 – Witnesses reported that the first shot hit the pavement.
2 – The Breneman & West survey noted a bullet mark on the south curb of Elm Street across from the north pergola.
3 – The City of Dallas cut out the section of curb with the bullet mark shortly after the Breneman & West survey was completed.
4 – President Kennedy had a wound in his neck.
5 – President Kennedy had a wound in his back.
6 – A bullet hit the south curb of Main Street near the Triple Underpass and wounded James Tague on the right cheek.
7 – Surveyor Chester Breneman reported hearing about a stress mark on the Stemmons Freeway sign that was caused by a bullet.
8 – The City of Dallas removed the Stemmons Freeway sign shortly after the assassination.
9 – Governor Connally had a through and through bullet wound from his right armpit to his right nipple.
10 – Governor Connally had a shattered right wrist.
11 – Governor Connally had a bullet embedded in his left thigh.
12 – Nellie Connally stated that her husband never let go of the hat in his right hand.
13 – The Presidential limousine had an indentation in the chrome frame of the windshield to the left of the right visor.
14 – The Presidential limousine had a defect in the windshield just below the indentation in the frame.
15 – The back of the rear view mirror of the limousine had a dent just below the defect in the windshield.
16 – President Kennedy had a massive gunshot wound to the head. Blood, bone and brain tissue exploded in all directions.
17 – On the Zapruder film, Kennedy's head moves forward just before the shot to his head.
18 – Kennedy's body fell back and to the left after the gunshot wound to his head.
19 – Witnesses reported a gunshot after the shot to Kennedy's head.
20 – There was a furrow in the grass near the manhole on the south curb of Elm Street just west of the north pergola.
21 – A man was observed and photographed picking up something in the grass and putting it in his pocket. Whatever the man picked up was never seen again.
22 – There was a groove in the sidewalk on the north side of Elm Street that lines up with the west window of the Texas School Book Depository.
These twenty-two items were arranged to correspond to my scenario of eight shots.
Shot #1 – Items 1-3
Shot #3 – Item 6
Shot #5 – Items 9-12
Shot #6 – Items 13-15
Extraneous mark – Item 22
The following is a summary of the controversial issues surrounding these items
Shot #1
Witnesses are famous for inventing information. Some witnesses reported a shot to the pavement behind the limousine and some reported a shot to the pavement in front, between the limousine and the lead car. A shot to the pavement behind the limousine is addressed in the narrative on shot #2. I located a mark on the curb in the Altgens 6 photograph, but there is no proof that the mark is a bullet mark, or if it is the mark noted by Breneman & West. The City of Dallas may have destroyed incriminating evidence that wasn't really incriminating. However this and the eighth shot are necessary to complete the picture of the assassination.
The wounds are established facts. However, some researchers believe these are both entry wounds. Other researchers believe in a back to throat trajectory or a throat to back trajectory. I believe in a throat to back trajectory.
These are established facts. The Tague shot was an unwelcome surprise when it came to light.
Before I found evidence in the Zapruder film, this was all we had to go on. There are no witnesses who claim to have seen a mark on the sign. However, it is clear that the City of Dallas removed incriminating evidence that was genuinely incriminating.
10 – Governor Connally had a shattered right wrist
Some researchers believe that two separate bullets hit Governor Connally because he could not have held on to his hat after his wrist was shattered. One researcher believes the bullet fragmented after it hit Connally's rib, and exited his chest in two pieces. I believe only one bullet is indicated by items 9-12.
Some researchers are convinced that there was a hole in the windshield, which means that two bullets are required for the damage to the limousine. I believe only one shot is indicated by items 13-15.
Some researchers believe Kennedy was hit from the front and the rear. I believe only one shot is indicated by items 16-18.
Witnesses are famous for inventing facts. The furrow could have nothing to do with the assassination. The man was tentatively identified but he denied being there or picking up anything. Nevertheless I believe the eighth shot is necessary to complete the picture of the assassination.
Extraneous Mark
I do not believe this item indicates a gunshot, which I will explain in the narrative.
SHOOTER LOCATIONS
There are five locations that correspond to the eight shots in this scenario.
1 – The east window of the sixth floor of the Texas School Book Depository (the Oswald window) – TSBDE (shots #1 & #8)
2 – The west window of the sixth floor of the Texas School Book Depository – TSBDW (shot #5)
3 – The second floor of the Dal-Tex Building – DTB (Shots #3 & #6).
4 – Behind the fence on the grassy knoll – GKF (Shots #2 & #4)
5 – On the railroad overpass above Commerce Street – RROP (Shot #7)
This and subsequent diagrams are based on an illustration by David Simkin, "The Kennedy File: The Assassination of President Kennedy" (Tressell Publications 1983), page 7. Used with permission of the artist.
Keep in mind that there was supposed to be coordination of the shots and that Oswald, supposedly at TSBDE, was going to be blamed for the assassination.
Other locations that have been proposed do not fit the totality of circumstances. A shooter on top of the Dal-Tex Building could have taken shots #1 & #8, but those shots are already assigned to TSBDE, the patsy location. The top of the Dal-Tex Building fails as a location with ease of escape. Some researchers believe that shot #8 came from the top of the Dallas Records Building, but the trajectory from the Dallas Records Building to the manhole does not come close to the limousine. Some researchers believe that the throat wound and the supposed hole in the windshield are tied to the shooter in front of the limousine. I do not believe that is a credible shot. There is an even stronger argument in the narrative that rules out a hole in the windshield.
1 – I relied upon Robert Groden (Groden, Robert J. The Killing of a President: The Complete Photographic Record of the JFK Assassination, the Conspiracy, and the Cover-up. New York: Viking Penguin, 1993) for the Zapruder sequence of shots #1, #2 & #5 and the theorized shot to Kennedy's back.
2 – I relied upon Donald Thomas (Thomas, Donald B. Hear No Evil: Social Constructivism and the Forensic Evidence in the Kennedy Assassination. Ipswich, MA: Mary Ferrell Foundation Press, 2010) for acoustical correlation to the Zapruder film.
3 – I relied upon Sherry Gutierrez Fiester (Gutierrez, Sherry. JFK Homicide: Forensic Analysis in the JFK Assassination. (DVD) Southlake, TX: JFK Lancer Productions & Publications, Inc., 2006) for forensic analysis of shot #7.
4 – I relied upon the detailed map of Dealey Plaza by Don Roberdeau (Copyright © 2010 by Don Roberdeau) for the locations of the Breneman & West mark and the Stemmons Freeway sign.
http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/3…pdated1111.gif
SHOT NARRATIVE
First Shot – From TSBDE to the south curb of Elm Street – Z150
The first shot did not hit anyone and did not trigger alarm. Groden believes it occurred at Z150 (Acoustic Z147) and caused Kennedy to stop waving. Governor Connally looks quickly to the right. Connally's testimony did not mention this gunshot, which means that his and the President's reactions were an unconscious reflex. The bullet mark on the south curb of Elm Street noted by Breneman & West ties in with witnesses who reported a shot that hit the pavement. The ricochet from this shot traveled northwest across Elm Street toward the Triple Underpass where there were only a few bystanders. This shot could only come from TSBDE as a credible shot at the President. I assume that the TSBDE shooter used the Mannlicher-Carcano rifle, which FBI analysts said shot high.
The first shot was described by many witnesses as being like a firecracker or like a rifle shot that was not as loud as the other shots. Some of the Mannlicher-Carcano ammunition possibly dated from World War II and the cartridge for shot #1 was weak either because of age or poor manufacture. The other shooters used ammunition made from 6.5 mm bullets fired through Oswald's Mannlicher-Carcano and reloaded into 7.62 mm (.30-30) shell casings with a sabot. This caused CE567 (see shot #6) to be matched ballistically to Oswald's rifle.
There are researchers who believe the Mannlicher-Carcano rifle was not fired that day because it was not tested by Dallas Police Department. I believe it was the intent of the assassination planners to have Oswald's rifle fired from TSBDE and tested by DPD. That was the purpose of creating evidence linking Oswald to the rifle. From the confusion surrounding the rifle it appears that something went wrong. In any event, I do not believe the TSBDE shooter was anything more than a stand-in for Oswald. The fact that the shooter took two risky shots suggests he did not realize he wasn't expected to hit anything.
FIRST SHOT – TSBDE1
I took the photograph from the south curb on Elm Street across from the north pergola
Photograph by James Altgens (Zapruder frame 255)
This photograph by Ike Altgens (Atlgens 6) is from Richard Trask's That Day in Dallas (1998). Other versions of the photograph do not have the light colored strip on the right side of the picture.
Roberdeau map showing the location of the Breneman & West mark in relation to the limousine at Z255
Second Shot – From GKF to Kennedy's throat – Z188
The occupants of the limousine believed that this was the first shot. Many researchers believe that the throat and back wounds were entry wounds. The doctors at Parkland Hospital still insist that the throat wound was an entry wound; they did not see the back wound. The doctors at Bethesda Naval Hospital described the back wound as not very deep and as small as a little finger, leaving the impression that a low velocity bullet or ricochet caused a shallow wound in Kennedy's back. It is not easy to second-guess the Bethesda doctors but the logic of a single bullet causing both wounds is compelling. A high-powered rifle shot using a bullet with a full-metal jacket could pass through Kennedy's back muscles without a large exit wound. Kennedy's tailored clothing and his back brace would help keep the wound from expanding. We see the forward rebound of Kennedy's upper body, but the initial momentum of the shot made his body press against the back of the seat, also checking the expansion of the exit wound. Groden believes Kennedy started reacting to the throat shot at Zapruder frame 188. However, the acoustic correlation is Z175, which seems a more likely trajectory on the Roberdeau map. Kennedy was a stoic about pain, and he received daily pain medication. For both these reasons, I believe Kennedy's reaction to the shot was delayed. The bullet traveled at a 30-degree angle from the fence on the grassy knoll. It entered Kennedy's neck to the right of his larynx, traveled downward and slightly to the left, exited his back to the right of his spine, and buried in the back seat of the limousine. The bullet made a small tear in the leather upholstery rather than a hole. This tear can be seen from the right but not from the left, suggesting that it was easily overlooked. The three shots from behind scenario was already established when the limousine was photographed on Saturday, November 23. Noticing anything that contradicted that scenario would have been discouraged. Fortunately there are photos that show the tear: Warren Commission CE353a and Zapruder frames 267 & 268.
Kennedy's forward movement after the shot to his throat is interpreted by some researchers as momentum from a shot to his back supposedly occurring at Z228. I believe Kennedy's forward movement is a rebound from the backward thrust of the throat shot and his attempt to regain composure. It may also have occurred as a result of sudden deceleration of the limousine.
A problem with a theorized shot to Kennedy's back is fitting the shot into the totality of circumstances. The TSBDW shooter had just shot Governor Connally at Z224. I believe the TSBDE shooter could not hit anything with his inferior rifle, and he will manage to fire just two shots in ten seconds. The DTB shooter will take his second shot at Z268, which is two seconds after the supposed shot to Kennedy's back.
SECOND SHOT – GKF1
The photograph shows the angle from the fence and the incline of Elm Street
Roberdeau map showing trajectories to Z175 and the Stemmons Freeway sign
GKF photograph from behind Zapruder's pedestal
A shot to the left of Marilyn Sitzman hit the President's throat around Z175. A shot to the right of Abraham Zapruder hit the Stemmons Freeway sign at Z200 (shot #4)
Photograph by Robert Croft
Witnesses reported that the "first shot" struck the pavement behind the President's limousine. Some witnesses said they saw smoke or sparks. A jacketed bullet on the trajectory shown in the Croft photograph could pass through the rear section of the limousine and strike the pavement. If it deflected slightly it could ricochet up and hit the underside of the limousine causing sparks.
Warren Commission CE353a showing bullet tear on back seat
Jacket (CE393-1) with threads indicating exit wound
Third Shot – From DTB to the south curb of Main Street (James Tague)
Since no witnesses reported shots from the Dal-Tex Building I believe the shooter used a silencer. Consequently the third shot did not trigger a reflex action or an acoustical pulse and there is no way to tie the shot to a specific Zapruder frame. I can tie the DTB shooter to shot #6 so the Tague shot has to occur earlier in the sequence. Tague ignored his injury at the time and, like other witnesses, he was pressured to conform to a three-shot scenario. However, it appears that he heard two shots before he was injured and a third shot after he was injured.
Tague said he heard the weak first shot that sounded like a firecracker. "Then I heard the crack of a couple of rifle shots. And with those last two shots I felt something sting me in the face." At that point he ducked behind the concrete in the triple underpass. Tague initially said that the shots came from the grassy knoll. I believe Tague heard the GKF shots to Kennedy's throat and the Stemmons Freeway sign before he ducked into the underpass. After that he either did not hear the succeeding shots or he conflated them into the three shots he heard.
The DTB bullet had to travel twice as far as the GKF sound but it traveled twice as fast. Tague believes he heard the third shot after he was hit. This suggests that the DTB shooter fired after the throat shot. If the DTB shooter fired before the throat shot, Tague would have felt the sting before he heard the second shot. A shot fired shortly after the throat shot would give the DTB shooter almost five seconds to reset before his second shot (shot #6 to the frame of the windshield).
The Tague shot was an unwelcome surprise when it came to light. The shooters in the Texas School Book Depository would not have known how many bullet casings to leave behind, so a spotter must have signaled three casings for two hits on Kennedy and one hit on Connally. That was the first story that made the newspapers and it is the story the government originally believed. James Tague is fortunate that his story made the Dallas newspapers or he would have been killed. His story required the switch to the convoluted single bullet theory we are all familiar with.
THIRD SHOT – DTB1
I took the photograph from where James Tague was standing at the Triple Underpass
Photograph by Frank Cancellare
James Tague turned to his left, exposing his right cheek
Fourth Shot – From GKF to the Stemmons Freeway sign – Z200
Many witnesses reported "shots" from GKF. I believe the GKF shooter hit the President in the throat and quickly took a second shot. The interval between shots is so brief (1.4 seconds) that the second shot was probably accidental; it was certainly inaccurate. The acoustic correlation is Z204. Refer to the Roberdeau map above for the location of the Stemmons Freeway sign.
The Stemmons Freeway sign first appears at Z133 and for 67 frames the back of the sign has no blemishes or camera artifacts. At Z200 a line appears on the left edge of the sign well below Kennedy's head. There is a hint of deformation on the edge of the sign and you can see the back of a blond woman's head. In frame Z201 the line disappears and I have no explanation for that. In frame Z202 the line has extended to the right and the hint of deformation on the edge of the sign is stronger. Frame Z203 is blurred; the line is less distinct but there is a pattern of discoloration radiating out from the line. Frame Z204 is the clearest indication of a stress mark. The line runs from the edge of the sign to the sign post and the discoloration pattern is pronounced. The blond woman (Karan Hicks) has turned around to look at the sign. In frame Z205 debris fragments are flying away from the sign. In frame Z206 the line and the discoloration are still clear but by Z207 the clarity is lost and in Z208 the line is out of frame. From Z207 until Z229 there are lines of debris on the back of the sign and in the air near the sign. By Z230 the back of the sign has cleared up but the original mark is out of frame. Click on STEMMONS FREEWAY SIGN for more detail.
Note that the Zapruder film at 18.3 frames per second was not fast enough to capture the path of the bullet. However, the coating on the back of the sign would take a fraction of a second to react.
Zapruder Frame Z204 showing stress mark on the Stemmons Freeway sign
Fifth Shot – From TSBDW to Connally's right armpit – Z224
The bullet trajectory indicated by Governor Connally's wounds makes TSBDW the only possible shooter location. The path of the bullet was down and to the left, and TSBDW was the only location above and to the right of Connally. A high-powered rifle shot could easily have caused all of Connally's wounds. The only controversy is whether Connally had to let go of his hat when his wrist was shattered. The reasoning is that, since Connally held on to his hat, the first bullet that hit him did not shatter his wrist. Nellie Connally settled this issue in an interview with Joe Nick Patoski, Texas Monthly, November 1998. Governor Connally did not let go of his hat even after his wrist was shattered. Groden and the acoustic correlation both place the shot at Z224.
Governor and Mrs. Connally both stated that the Governor turned to the right after the President was hit in the throat. Unable to see clearly over his right shoulder, Connally then turned to his left and was hit. We do not see the Governor's turn to the right because he was behind the Stemmons Freeway sign. Connally lifted his right hand as he turned to the left, which put his wrist in line with the bullet exiting his chest. The bullet ricocheted off his wrist into his left thigh. Alternatively, the bullet may have split after it struck Connally's rib. In this scenario two separate fragments caused Connally's wrist and thigh wounds.
FIFTH SHOT – TSBDW
Photograph shows right to left angle of shot to Governor Connally
Sixth Shot – From DTB to the frame of the limousine windshield – Z268
The rear view mirror of the limousine is the key to understanding the sixth shot. Only a ricochet from the windshield could have caused the dent in the back of the mirror. Consequently the crack in the windshield was not a through and through hole, despite the testimony of witnesses who say it was. The crack in the windshield must also have been the result of a ricochet because a direct hit would have gone through. We will see in the narrative about shot #7 that President Kennedy was not hit from behind. Consequently there were no fragments available to cause the crack in the windshield. The deep indentation in the chrome frame of the windshield was caused by a direct hit from a nearly horizontal direction, which makes DTB the only possible shooter location. The frame absorbed most of the momentum but a piece of the bullet angled down slightly and cracked the windshield then came back and dented the mirror. This scenario was first proposed by Anthony Marsh at COPA in 1995. Fragments of the bullet were found on the right front seat and on the floor beside the right front seat (CE567-b & CE569). The crack in the windshield appears at Z268 for the first time, which places the shot after Connally and before the Kennedy head shot.
SIXTH SHOT – DTB2
Warren Commission CE349Z Warren Commission CE350 with ricochet angle added
Warren Commission CE567-b & CE569 Bullet fragments found in the limousine front seat
Agent Roy Kellerman said that a "flurry of shells came into the car." The sixth shot struck the frame, the windshield and the mirror in rapid succession. Two and a half seconds later came the shot to Kennedy's head, hence the impression of numerous shots.
Zapruder frame 268 showing the crack in the windshield and the tear in the rear seat (Normal image and enhanced image)
Seventh Shot – From RROP to Kennedy's right temple – Z313
At this point a theorized shot to the back of Kennedy's head raises issues similar to a theorized shot to his back. The DTB shooter fired at Z268, which is 2.5 seconds before the head shot and not enough time for a proper reset. The TSBDE shooter couldn't hit anything and he will fire again right after the head shot. However, the TSBDW shooter fired at Z224, which was five seconds earlier and time enough to take a second shot. We know from Connally's wounds that the TSBDW shooter used a high-powered rifle and was positioned to the right of the President's head. A shot to the head from TSBDW would produce a movement forward and to the left. It would also produce an exit wound in Kennedy's left forehead or face.
A shot to the back of Kennedy's head is an issue is because of a forward movement of Kennedy's head between Zapruder frames 312 and 313. There is also a forward movement of Governor Connally's head relative to Nellie Connally's face and a forward movement of Jackie Kennedy's head relative to the door handle.
www.assassinationscience.com/johncostella/jfk/intro/index.html
Deceleration of the limousine and smearing produced by the movement of Zapruder's camera are possibile expanations for the movements of Governor Connally's head and Jackie Kennedy's head. The larger movement of President kennedy's head can be explained by terminal velocity, hydrostatic shock and cavitation, which describe the movement of a fluid filled container into the direction of a bullet strike. Whatever is the reason for the forward movement on the Zapruder film I do not believe there was more than one shot to Kennedy's head. A straight on shot to the head will produce a forward spray of blood, brain tissue and pieces of bone. Most of Kennedy's tissue was expelled to the rear and to the left, which is the same direction his body went.
For many years researchers believed that the shot to the President's head came from GKF. That belief was so widespread that a convicted killer came forward and claimed to have fired the shot. However, there are convincing reasons for rejecting a GKF shot to the head. The eyewitness account of Ed Hoffman places only one shooter and an accomplice behind the GKF. Hoffman's description of the shooter does not resemble the man claiming to have made the shot. From the shot to Kennedy's throat we know that the GKF shooter used a jacketed bullet, and from the x-rays we know that the head shot was a fragmenting hunting round. We can place two shots from GKF prior to Z313 and there is no compelling reason to believe there was a third shot from GKF. A forensic analysis of the head shot (Sherry Gutierrez Fiester, op. cit.) rules it out and points to RROP. By the time of the seventh shot, witnesses had been subjected to four audible shots from TSBDE, TSBDW and GKF. A shot from TSBDE will follow the RROP shot within eight tenths of a second. Motorcycle police officer Bobby Hargis believed the shot to Kennedy's head came from RROP. Most other witnesses failed to distinguish this shot location from the ones already used. It appears in the acoustical analysis at Z312.
SEVENTH SHOT – RROP
The shooter behind Zapruder's pedestal (see shots #2 & #4) might have had a view of Kennedy's head in the red circle. However the angle of his shot would have been around eighty degrees. The shot would not produce the dispersion of particles seen in the authopsy X-rays, and it would almost certainly wound Mrs. Kennedy with ejected material.
Eighth Shot – From TSBDE to the manhole on the south side of Elm Street
The eighth shot fits the witness accounts and the photographic evidence and it allows the TSBDE shooter to have a second shot at the President that went high. The acoustic correlation places the shot at Z326, eight tenths of a second after Z313. Many witnesses said that the last two shots were close together. This shot completes the picture of the totality of circumstances. It also reinforces a suspicion that the authorities covered up the evidence for whatever reason.
EIGHTH SHOT – TSBDE2
I took the photograph from the manhole cover
Photograph by William Allen Photograph by Jim Murray
Zapruder frame 400 showing bullet mark on grass
The groove in the sidewalk on the north side of Elm Street lines up with TSBDW but not as a credible shot at the President. At that angle from the sixth floor a bullet would ricochet over the bystanders, but there is no room in the scenario for another shot. The groove looks like the gouge of a kickstand (See Groden, Robert J. op. cit., pg. 40).
Groove in the sidewalk on the north side of Elm Street
The totality of circumstances surrounding the shooter locations and the shots necessarily assigned to those locations places constraints on our theories. There were just under ten seconds from the first to the last shot. During those ten seconds the shooter at TSBDE shot twice and missed. The shooter at DTB also shot twice and missed. The shooter at TSBDW shot once and hit Governor Connally. The shooter at GKF hit President Kennedy once and missed once. The shooter at RROP made the fatal shot. Every wound and bullet mark is accounted for and there isn't room for anything else. Proving who the shooters were and for whom they worked will tell us a great deal about the conspiracy to kill the President, and that is where I believe our attention should be focused.