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IFX Tatyana
Jul 1 2009, 11:33 AM
InstaForex Representative
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From: Kaliningrad, Russia
German May Retail Sales Decline Further
Wednesday, Germany's Federal Statistical Office announced that the retail sales in real terms dropped 2.9% year-over-year in May, compared with a 0.3% fall in April, revised from 0.8% decline reported initially. Economists were looking for a decline of 1.5%. A year earlier, retail sales were up 1.4%.
Month-on-month, retail sales increased 0.4% in May, after rising 0.5% in April. Economists had expected an increase of 0.5%.
For the first five months of the year, retail sales grew 2.3% compared to the same period of the previous year.
In nominal terms, retail sales dipped 3.2% year-on-year in May, compared with a 0.4% fall in April, revised from 0.9% drop estimated initially. On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.5%, after rising 0.9% in April. During the January to May period, retail sales were up 2.4% over a year ago.
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Regards, news editor Tatyana Tokarchuk
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IFX Darika
Greenback Declines Against Majors
The US dollar that edged slightly higher against its major rivals immediately after the ADP employment report lost ground shortly. As of 8:30 am ET, the greenback drifted lower to 96.67 against the Japanese yen, 1.0795 against the Swiss franc, 1.6494 against the pound and 1.4123 against the euro.
The ADP report showed that non-farm private employment fell by 473,000 jobs in June following a revised decrease of 485,000 jobs in May. Economists had expected a decrease of 394,000 jobs compared to the loss of 532,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
Regards, news editor Darika Isakova
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QUOTE (Svetlana Milyushko @ Jul 1 2009, 12:33 PM)
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QUOTE (yoshi @ Jul 2 2009, 03:19 PM)
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Eurozone Retail Sales Fall Further In May.
Retail sales in the Eurozone declined 3.3% year-on-year in May, faster than a revised 2.5% drop in the preceding month, the Eurostat said Friday. Economists expected sales to fall 2.7%.
Excluding automotive fuel, retail sales dipped 2.7% in May compared to a 1.8% fall in April.
Month-on-month, retail sales were down 0.4% in May, reversing a 0.1% rise in the preceding month. Economists expected a drop of 0.1%. Retail sales excluding automotive fuel declined 0.4% compared to a 0.1% growth in April.
Greenback Falls Versus Euro, Sterling Thursday Morning
The dollar pulled back versus the euro and sterling but managed to stabilize against the resurgent yen Thursday morning in New York, as traders looked ahead to weekly jobless claims figures.
Yesterday, The Group of Eight largest industrialized nations meeting in L'Aquila released a statement recognizing serious downside risks to the global economy.
Still, stock futures on Wall Street crept ahead Thursday morning on Wall Street, fueling renewed risk appetite. Alcoa kicked off earnings season with a better than expected result.
The dollar gave back some of its recent gains versus the euro and sterling. Versus the euro, the dollar dropped to 1.3980, falling more than a penny from its 3-week high of 1.3832.
The dollar plunged versus the sterling, dropping to 1.6260 from a monthly high of 1.5982.
Thursday, the Bank of England retained its key interest rate and decided to continue with its asset purchase scheme totaling GBP 125 billion by utilizing central bank reserves.
At the end of the two-day rate setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold the Bank Rate at 0.5% as expected. The rate now stands at the lowest since the central bank was established in 1694.
The dollar steadied versus the yen,, holding near 93 after plummeting to a 5-month low of 91.79.
Despite nagging rumors that G8 leaders would discuss an alternative to the dollar as the world's de facto reserve currency, there was no mention of a new international currency in the statement released following the first day of meetings in Italy.
A Labor Department report on the number of first time claimants for unemployment benefits is likely to be in the radar, given the linkage jobs and wage growth has got with consumer spending. Economists expect the report to reveal a decline in claims in the recent reporting week. Additionally, the results of the Treasury auction of $11 billion worth of 30-year bonds may also be closely watched.
Spain Consumer Prices Drop Further In June.
Consumer prices in Spain fell 1% year-on-year in June, faster than a 0.9% drop in the preceding month, the National Statistics Institute said Friday. This came in line in with economists' expectations.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices climbed 0.4% in May, after remaining flat in the preceding month. Moreover, the rise matched economists' expectations.
Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices decreased 1% annually in June compared to a 0.9% fall in May. The decline matched the first estimate made on June 29, and also came in line with economists' expectations.
On a monthly basis, the HICP was up 0.5%, after being flat in May. Economists expected the prices to rise 0.4%.
Dollar Strengthens Against European Majors
Friday morning in Asia, the U.S. dollar advanced against the currencies of Europe, U.K. and Switzerland. On the other hand, the dollar pared its recent gains against the Japanese yen.
Leaders of the world's biggest developed and emerging nations avoided a debate over the dollar's role in the global economy as they agreed not to devalue their currencies to promote their exports.
With officials from Brazil, India, China and Russia pushing consideration of alternative reserve currencies, their joint statement's language on foreign exchange echoed an agreement at an April summit of the Group of 20.
The leaders agreed to "refrain from competitive devaluations of our currencies," according to the statement released after their meeting yesterday at the G-8 summit in L'Aquila, Italy. They also agreed to "promote a stable and well-functioning international monetary system."
The global financial crisis and the surge in U.S. borrowing have prompted Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to advocate diversification away from the dollar. Russia and its counterparts have yet to come up with a viable alternative.
The dollar that closed yesterday's trading at 1.4025 against the euro rose to 1.3969 during early Asian deals on Friday. The near term resistance level for the U.S. currency is seen at 1.389.
A report from the U.S. Labor Department showed yesterday that first-time claims for unemployment benefits decreased substantially in the week ended July 4th.
The report showed that jobless claims fell to 565,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 617,000. Economists had been expecting a more modest decrease to 603,000 from the 614,000 originally reported for the previous week.
In early Asian trading on Friday, the dollar climbed to 1.6273 against the pound. This may be compared to yesterday's close of 1.6339. On the upside, 1.61 is seen as the next target level for the dollar.
Against the Swiss franc, the dollar gained in early Asian deals on Friday. At 10:45 pm ET, the dollar-franc pair reached 1.0830, up from yesterday's 1.0783. If the pair advances further, it may likely target the 1.092 level.
The dollar strengthened to 93.20 against the yen at 7:50 pm ET Thursday. Thereafter, the dollar-yen pair slipped and it is presently trading near yesterday's close of 92.99. The next downside target level for the pair is seen at 91.8.
An index measuring the prices of domestic corporate goods fell 6.6 percent on year in June, the Bank of Japan said today, marking the fastest pace of decline on record.
Analysts had been expecting a fall of 6.4 percent on year following the revised 5.5 percent decline in May. On a monthly basis, the prices for corporate goods eased 0.3 percent versus expectations for a 0.1 percent decline. The May reading was revised from -0.4 percent to -0.5 percent.
The industrial production reports from France and Italy as well as the French current account-all for the month of May are scheduled for release in the European session today.
From the U.S., the trade balance for May, import and export price indexes for June and the Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence report for July are expected in the New York session.
Singapore Dollar Mixed In Trading Against Majors.
Monday in Asia, the Singapore dollar showed mixed trading against its major counterparts. While the Singapore dollar weakened against the US and Hong Kong dollars, it gained against the pound and the euro. The Singapore dollar thus rose to a 4-day high against the pound.
During Asian deals on Monday, the Singapore dollar declined against the Hong Kong dollar. At 1:05 am ET, the pair touched 5.2923, down from Friday's close of 5.2996. The next target level for the Singapore dollar is seen at 5.287.
After a brief uptrend, the Singapore dollar slipped against the U.S. currency during Asian deals on Monday. The pair moved from 1.4598 to 1.4648 by about 1:05 am ET. If the Singapore dollar drops further, it may likely target the 1.466 level. At last week's close, the pair was quoted at 1.4623.
In Asian trading on Monday, the Singapore dollar rose to 2.0371 against the euro. This may be compared to last week's close of 2.0382. The near term resistance level for the Singapore dollar is seen at 2.030.
The Singapore dollar that closed Friday's trading at 2.3711 against the pound climbed to a 4-day high of 2.3575 in Asian deals on Monday. On the upside, 2.341 is seen as the next target level for the Singapore dollar.
New Car Registrations In Europe Rise For First Time In 14 Months.
Wednesday, the European Automobile Manufacturer's Association said Europe's new passenger car registrations in June rose for the first time in fourteen months, reflecting effects of incentive schemes implemented in more than 10 EU Member States.
New passenger car registrations rose 2.4% year-on-year in June after falling 4.9% in May. A year ago, registrations were down 7.9% in June.
During the first half of 2009, new car registrations dropped 11% compared to the same period in 2008, with a total of 7,425,762 new cars registered compared to 8,346,828 the year before.
French CPI Logs Y-o-Y Fall For Second Month.
Thursday, the French statistical office INSEE reported that the consumer price index dropped 0.5% year-on-year in June, after recording the first annual fall since 1957 in May. Prices were down 0.3% from last year in May. Economists were looking for a year-on-year decline of 0.4% for June.
Month-on-month, consumer prices rose 0.1% in June, after climbing 0.2% in the previous month. Economists expected a 0.3% increase in consumer prices.
The CPI excluding tobacco edged up 0.1% month-on-month, while it fell 0.5% from a year ago.
The harmonized CPI or the HICP declined 0.6% year-on-year in June, doubling the 0.3% fall recorded in the previous month. Economists were looking for a 0.5% drop. From May, the index moved up 0.1%. Euro area annual inflation turned negative for the first time on record in June. Prices in the 16-nation bloc fell 0.1% year-on-year.
Following the decline in consumer prices in May, Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said the French economy did not enter into deflation and the temporary decline in prices would support consumption given the rise in unemployment. However, most economists expect the headline inflation to remain negative in the coming months.
British Pound Slumps Against Majors
During early European deals on Friday, the British pound edged down against its major counterparts despite a rise in Britain's leading share index. The pound thus declined to a 2-day low against the US dollar and the Japanese yen, 4-day low versus the European currency and a 3-day low against the Swiss franc.
European stocks extended their upward trend today in anticipation of strong earnings from U.S. banks Citigroup and Bank of America and industrial bellwether General Electric after better-than-expected earnings from IBM and Google buoyed investor confidence.
By 3:14 am ET, the FTSE 100 .FTSE index was up 22.23 points at 4,384.07.
Against the US dollar, the British pound traded down during early deals on Friday. At 3:10 am ET, the pound-dollar pair touched a 2-day low of 1.6305, compared to 1.6440 hit late New York Thursday. If the pair falls further, 1.603 is seen as the next target level.
The British pound that closed Thursday's North American session at 0.8610 against the European currency declined to 0.8641 at 3:05 am ET Friday. This set a 4-day low for the pound. The next downside target level for the sterling is seen around 0.886.
Against the Swiss franc, the British currency edged down during Friday's early deals. At 3:10 am ET, the pound-franc pair slipped to a 3-day low of 1.7591, compared to Thursday's closing value of 1.7645. The pair is currently trading at 1.7606 with 1.704 seen as the next target level.
U.K.'s sterling that closed Thursday's New York deals at 154.44 against the Japanese yen dropped to a 2-day low of 152.59 at 3:10 am ET Friday. On the downside, 149.9 is seen as the next target level for the pair.
Today, the Cabinet Office of Japan in a final report revised down the leading index for May to 76.9 from 77 reported on July 6. Economists expected the index to come in at 76.8. In April, the index stood at 76.2.
At the same time, the coincident index was revised up to 87.1 from 86.9 estimated initially, and came in higher than the reading of 86 in April. The lagging index was also revised up, to 84.1 from 84, but was down from 86.3 in the preceding month.
In the upcoming hours, Italian industrial orders, Euro-zone trade balance and construction output reports- all for the month of May are due for release.
Across the Atlantic, the US Census Bureau will release its housing starts and building permits data for June at 8:30 am ET. Analysts foresee the housing starts to drop 530,000 in June from 532,000 in the previous month, while the number of new building permits to rise 524,000 from 518,000 in May.
US Dollar Falls Against European Majors; Hits 3-day High Against Japanese Yen.
During early deals on Thursday, the US dollar showed weakness against the European currency, the British pound and the Swiss franc as a rise in Asian stock prices reduced demand for currencies perceived as safe havens. The dollar thus slipped to a 2-day low against the euro and the pound.
The dollar and the yen are viewed as safe-haven currencies and both currencies gain, when investors turn risk averse and fall when risk appetite improves.
On the other hand, the US currency rose to a 3-day high against the Japanese yen due to across the broad weakening of the latter.
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke redelivered his address regarding monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee while also fielding questions regarding the current and near-term economic outlook.
In his prepared remarks, Bernanke reiterated that the U.S. economy is showing signs of stabilization, although he noted that the economy is still in a fragile state, with unemployment high and consumer spending shaky.
Questioning the Fed chief, Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, noted that while some signs of economic recovery have been seen on Wall Street, the benefits have yet to make it to Main Street.
Dodd noted that although big banks that received government bailouts are now posting profits, consumer and small business lending remains sluggish, with many Americans still concerned about reports of executive bonuses at the same time layoffs are being made.
Bernanke conceded that unemployment is "the most pressing issue" facing the Fed, but he noted that there are steps that Congress could take to ease the situation, similar to the already-passed extension of unemployment benefits.
He said one serious concern was that the long-term unemployed might see their job skills atrophy, leaving them unqualified for work once the economy recovers. Extending job training programs might be one response Congress should consider, the Fed chief said.
Against the European currency, the US dollar edged down during early deals on Thursday. At 2:30 am ET, the dollar touched a 2-day low of 1.4267 against the euro, compared to 1.4221 hit late New York Wednesday. The next downside target level for the dollar is seen around 1.433.
The US currency that closed Wednesday's North American session at 1.6490 against the British pound declined to 1.6519 at 2:05 am ET Thursday. This set a 2-day low for the dollar. The pound-dollar pair is currently trading at 1.6509 with 1.672 seen as the next target level.
Against the Swiss franc, the greenback edged down during Thursday's early deals. At 2:05 am ET, the dollar-franc pair slipped to 1.0642, compared to Wednesday's closing value of 1.0634. If the pair falls further, 1.049 is seen as the next target level.
The US dollar that closed Wednesday's New York deals at 93.68 against the Japanese yen rose to a 3-day high of 94.43 at 2:10 am ET Thursday. On the upside, 95.0 is seen as the next target level for the dollar-yen pair.
The Japanese yen declined after a report showed today that Japan's trade surplus rose less than expected.
Japan posted a merchandise trade surplus of 508 billion yen in June, the Ministry of Finance said today. That was well shy of analyst expectations for a surplus of 610 billion yen, but significantly higher than the 299.8 billion yen surplus in May.
Merchandise imports fell 41.9 percent on year, versus forecasts for a 42 percent annual decline after the 42.4 percent annual decline in the previous month. Merchandise exports were off 35.7 percent on year, in line with forecasts for a 35.1 percent decline after the 40.9 percent annual contraction a month earlier.
The adjusted merchandise trade balance came in at 438.2 billion yen. Analysts had expected a surplus of 480.8 billion yen after showing a 222.4 billion yen surplus in May.
In the upcoming hours, the French July business confidence indicator, Euro-zone May current account, Italian May retail sales and the UK June retail sales are due for release.
Across the Atlantic, the Labor Department is due to release its customary weekly jobless claims report for the week ended July 18th at 8:30 AM ET.
The National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its report on existing home sales for June at 10 AM ET . Economists estimate existing home sales of 4.80 million for the month.
East Asian Economies In Transition Phase From Recession To Recovery: ADB
Thursday, in its July issue of the Asia Economic Monitor, the Asia Development Bank noted that the East Asian Economies had already entered the transistion from recession to recovery, although the economic growth was continuing to slow this year.
"Emerging East Asia could see a V-shaped recovery, with growth dipping sharply in 2009 before regaining last year's pace in 2010," Jong-Wha Lee, ADB Chief Economist and Head of the Office of Regional Economic Integration said.
However, the report cautioned saying that given the tentative nature of the expected recovery, it was critical for authorities to continue to follow measures which would support domestic demand and growth. "Monetary and fiscal policies in the region need to remain accommodative until the recovery gains substantial traction", the ADB said.
"Emerging East Asia should reinforce cooperation in enhancing financial stability by accelerating regional initiatives, and actively participate in designing the new global financial architecture", it added.
Moreover, the ADB pointed out that deep recessions in the U.S,Europe and Japan would continue to hurt emerging Easing Asian economies, particularly the smaller one that were highly reliant on exports. However, larger economies like China, that had implemented major fiscal packages were begining to see some results from the stimulus packages.
Dollar Nearing December 2008 Lows Versus Euro
The dollar came under further pressure versus the euro and continued its trek toward parity against the surging loonie Monday morning in New York.
Rising global stocks and speculation that the economy is on the mend have fueled increased appetite for riskier higher yielding currencies.
Traders were looking ahead to a fairly busy week on the economic front, kicked off by the Commerce Department's new home sales report for June.
The consensus estimate for the report coming at 10 AM ET this morning calls for an increase in new homes sales to 352,000.
New home sales declined 0.6% in May from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000.
The dollar remained on the defensive versus the euro, dropping to an 8-week low of 1.4296, just shy of its lows from last December. A move to 1.4340 would take the dollar to its lowest level since the last week of 2008.
There was no relief for the dollar versus the scorching-hot loonie. Amid growing evidence that the Canadian economy is in much better shape than its neighbor to the south, the dollar dropped to C$1.0780, its lowest level since September 2008.
The dollar extended its run of choppy trading versus the sterling, easing to 1.6500 after seeing some modest strength late last week.
Versus the yen, the dollar firmed up slightly to 95.20, staying near a monthly high of 95.28.
In economic news from around the globe, German consumer confidence for August improved strongly, suggesting a recovery in the economy that is hit hard by recession.
According to the latest consumer climate survey from the market research firm GfK, the forward-looking consumer sentiment index rose to 3.5 points for August.
Monday, the quarterly report from the Bank of England said the continued asset purchases in the second quarter were accompanied by signs of improvement in the corporate credit markets.
US Dollar Steady Ahead Of May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Report.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S., is scheduled to be released at 9:00 AM ET. Economists expect a 17.8% year-over-year decline in the 20-city composite house price index for May.
The US dollar held steady against its major opponents ahead of the report. As of 8:55 am ET, the greenback was worth 1.4234 against the euro, 94.66 versus the yen, 1.0698 against the franc and 1.65 per pound.
IMF Advises Indonesia To Continue Stimulus Measures In 2010
The International Monetary Fund welcomed Indonesia's fiscal stimulus plan for 2009, underscoring timely and efficient implementation of the spending program. The Washington-based agency urged Indonesia to maintain some of the stimulus measures next year.
The Executive Board of IMF noted that private consumption supported by the fiscal stimulus package helped to maintain positive economic growth. However, another round of global risk aversion could adversely affect nation's external liquidity, demand and growth prospects. To withstand these risks, the authorities should strive to achieve the appropriate policy mix and promptly adjust it as needed to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability.
The board assessed that the current level of the real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals and that reserves are at a comfortable level. Some others believed that the current level of reserves and the various contingency arrangements should provide an adequate cushion.
Regarding inflation, the fund said, "Strong commitment to the medium-term inflation targets, as well as publication of inflation forecasts, would help guide inflation expectations and enhance policy credibility."
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Rises For Fourth Straight Month In July.
Eurozone economic sentiment improved for the fourth consecutive month in July, a monthly survey from the European Commission showed Thursday. The index stood at 76, up from a revised reading of 73.2 recorded in the prior month. Economists were expecting the indicator to climb to 75. However, the level is still far below the long-term average.
Industrial and services confidence improved 2 points each to minus 30 and minus 18, respectively. Consumer confidence also climbed 2 points to minus 23 in July. At the same time, construction remained at the June level of minus 33. Confidence amongst retailers moved up by 4 points to minus 13.
Separately, the EU said the business climate indicator for the euro area increased to minus 2.71 in July from minus 2.92. But the level is still very low, even when compared to the previous historical lows of 1993.
Trust In Business Recovering In World Markets: Survey
The public's trust in business has stabilized and is recovering significantly in some of the world's largest markets, results of a survey conducted by Edelman, a leading independent public relations firm, showed Thursday.
Edelman's previous survey, conducted in January, showed a devastating loss in trust in the private sector.
The mid-year survey was conducted among 1,675 informed public in six countries - the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, India, and China.
The survey found that India and China are the most positive about business. At 75%, India recorded the highest level of trust in business of any of the six countries surveyed. China followed with 60% saying they trust business to do what is right.
"The private sector is perceived as enabling an economic growth that has led to healthier living standards. The survey numbers reflect a high degree of national pride in the accomplishments of business," said Alan VanderMolen, president, Asia Pacific, Edelman.
In the U.S., 48% of informed public trust business to do what is right, up from a low of 36% in January. The figure for France rose to 41% from 30%.
"Trust in business is on the way back, but we're still in the middle of the game," said Richard Edelman, president and CEO, Edelman.
The public's trust in government rose the most in India, an increase of 13 points to 55% followed by the U.S., where the trust barometer rose 12 points to 42%.
Aug 3 2009, 04:43 PM
German Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly In June
German retail sales dropped unexpectedly in June despite rising consumer confidence and low price level as recession continued to put pressure on consumer spending.
According to a provisional report from the Federal Statistical Office, retail sales for June recorded a surprise monthly decrease of 1.8% in real terms, following a revised 1.3% drop in May. Economists were looking for a 0.3% rise.
Year-on-year, sales slipped 1.6% in June, smaller than a revised 3.7% fall seen in May. The annual decline was also unexpected as economists were looking for an increase of 0.9%.
For the January to June period, retail turnover dropped 2.1% in real terms compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Sales were down nominally by 2.3%.
In nominal terms, retail sales dipped 2% year-on-year and 1.6% from the prior month in June.
Simon Junker, Commerzbank analyst said in a note that German retail sales proved to be stable despite severe recession, probably because of the still stable labor market and the low price level. The crisis has reached retail too, supporting the judgment that the largest Eurozone economy shrunk again in the second quarter, albeit only moderately, he said.
According to the analyst, the German economy would possibly pick up in the months ahead, though retail may not benefit very much in the coming months. At most, the favorable price trend could strengthen purchasing power and support sales. However, rising unemployment would dent retail sales again.
German unemployment decreased in July, which was the first decline since October 2008. Meanwhile, the jobless rate stood at 8.3%, unchanged from June.
Consumer confidence and business climate in the economy showed improvements in recent months as a result of Chancellor Angela Merkel's spending plan. Merkel is seeking a second-term in office in September elections.
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