Gene Frenette: Bracket forecast says Zion King will rule March Madness
Gene Frenette @GeneFrenette
Mar 19, 2019 at 10:38 AM Mar 19, 2019 at 3:03 PM
The NCAA Tournament spotlight was swallowed up last year by a then-98-year-old nun, Sister Jean Dolores-Schmidt, and a shocking run to the Final Four by her beloved 11th-seeded Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. So where is divine intervention for potential Cinderella teams going to occur during this March Madness?
Maybe with another Catholic-based university, St. Mary's, which upset Gonzaga last week to win the West Coast tournament and earn an automatic NCAA bid.
But other than the Gaels, it's hard to feel comfortable picking any double-digit seed to crash the Sweet 16 party in my 13th annual NCAA tournament bracket. I'll explain why later.
First, be advised this entertainment-purposes-only bracket will have a tough time duplicating last year's success when I was more reliable than Wofford (42 percent) from 3-point range. I correctly predicted Villanova as the national champion, hit on three Final Four teams, and the one everybody missed, Loyola-Chicago, was a Sweet 16 pick in this space.
Overall, I'm 7 of 12 in identifying the NCAA champion, but a pedestrian 19 of 48 forecasting the Final Four participants since 2007. So buy or pass my 2019 projections at your own risk.
If anything stands out about this year's Big Dance card, it's that chalk teams on the 1 and 2 seed lines — courtesy of a big push from the ACC Goliaths — appear to have created as big a separation as in recent memory from the rest of the field beneath them.
I'll be surprised if the streak of a No. 7 seed or worse reaching the Final Four each of the past six years continues. There's just too much quality at the top.
About the only reason I didn't take all four No. 1s — Duke Gonzaga, Virginia and North Carolina — to make the Final Four is the law of average dictates somebody will put up a clunker game en route to Minneapolis.
Namely, Virginia, which has a history of putting together an impressive regular-season resume, then regressing on the biggest stage.
Even before they became the first No. 1 team in NCAA history to fall to a No. 16 seed last year against UMBC, the Cavaliers also failed to make it past the Sweet 16 in 2014 as a top seed. Throw in the fact Tony Bennett's team was run out of the gym by 26 points on two different NCAA opening weeks (2017, 2012) by Florida, it becomes hard to trust them to live up to any seeding.
Though I advanced Virginia to the Elite Eight in the accommodating South bracket, few would be shocked to see Ole Miss or Final Four threat Kansas State — especially if star forward Dean Wade gets healthy — trip up the Cavaliers before they can even get to No. 2 Tennessee in the regional final.
By virtue of how St. Mary's handcuffed Gonzaga (88.8 ppg) in last week's 60-47 upset, my guess is the Gaels usher out defending champion Villanova and No. 6 seed Purdue in the other half of the South region. I've got five other double-digit seeds winning round of 64 games, but no more.
A St. Mary's run makes the path slightly easier for No. 2 Tennessee to reach the Final Four, though two-time SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams must be patient against Virginia's stingy defense. A Final Four trip would certainly erase the Volunteers' pain of last year's one-point loss to Chicago-Loyola in the round of 32.
Maybe the toughest region to call is the wide-open West, where Florida State might have been slightly shortchanged as a No. 4 seed. The Seminoles (27-7) should get to the second week and a Sweet 16 matchup with Gonzaga, which was eliminated 75-60 by FSU last year.
That rematch is pretty much a tossup, as is Florida-Nevada in the first round or a Texas Tech-Michigan collision in the Sweet 16 at the opposite end of the West bracket.
All the Florida offensive woes are well documented. The Gators' bracket is loaded with top-notch defensive teams, which means a first-round exit is as likely as a Sweet 16 appearance. It's hard to pencil UF for more than one W, and I'm only conceding that because Nevada's 29-4 record was aided by a lightweight schedule.
It's not a huge stretch to go with FSU, Michigan or Texas Tech — all Elite Eight participants last year — to knock off Gonzaga and get to Minneapolis. I'll take a flier on the Red Raiders, who eliminated UF last year, to join Tennessee as a Final Four first-timer.
That leaves the East and Midwest regions, both loaded with blueblood programs. Duke is an overwhelming East favorite as long as Zion Williamson stays out of foul trouble and has no further sneaker malfunctions.
Speaking of which, how great a TV visual would it be if Williamson faces UCF and 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall in the Round of 32, though Duke might well get VCU. An Elite Eight matchup looms with Michigan State and Tom Izzo, whose 1-11 record against the Blue Devils is astounding for such an accomplished coach.
North Carolina, Kentucky and Kansas, who have combined for eight NCAA title game appearances in the last 14 years, should all advance to Kansas City and massive showdowns in either the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. If Kansas hadn't lost the services of big man Udoka Azubuike from Potter's House earlier this season with a wrist injury, the Jayhawks might have extended their streak of 14 consecutive Big 12 titles and be a much tougher NCAA out.
It's a coin flip if No. 1 UNC and No. 2 Kentucky hook up in the Elite Eight, the same circumstances as 2017 when the Tar Heels won on Luke Maye's last-second jump shot. The slight edge goes to UNC in another dramatic finish.
Two years ago, my prediction of a Duke-North Carolina championship matchup (it would have been the first NCAA tournament meeting between these storied rivals) never materialized because South Carolina upset the Blue Devils in the round of 32. UNC went on to win the NCAA title over Gonzaga.
Who doesn't want to see a healthy Williamson — after missing essentially all of the first two meetings against North Carolina with a sprained knee and scoring 31 points in an epic 74-73 victory in the semifinals of the ACC tournament — facing UNC with a national championship on the line?
That dream matchup will finally happen. And it'll confirm why Zion King rules college basketball.
gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540