2022 NBA Playoffs Preview: Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions, Picks and Odds
April 13, 2022 at 11:15 am EDT by JM Sports
NBA Playoffs Preview: Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction and Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his betting preview on the Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves divisional series in the Western Conference. Memphis finished second in the West with a 56-26 record. Minnesota finished seventh at 46-36.
Series Winner
NBA Betting Notes (by DraftKings)
Win in 4 Grizzlies (+500) Timberwolves (+3000)
Win in 6 Grizzlies (+370) Timberwolves (+700)
Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves Preview
In recent seasons, the 2 vs. 7 match-up is one of the most one sided, as it should be. The #2 seed has won 17 of the last 20 games to start the series and start the playoffs, winning by over 11 PPG on average.
They are 97-27, dating back to 2012, on their home court as a favorite of five or more points, including a 9-1 record last year and a 61-12 record against 7 seeds.
When you look a little more specifically at this match-up, the 2 seed is 29-6 at home after an upset loss as a favorite in the previous head-to-head match-up and that 2 seed is 9-1 when the previous match-up wasn't a playoff game, as Minnesota took down Memphis in their last regular season game, 119-114 on February 24th.
On top of the fact that the 2 seed is 43-11 as a home favorite coming off a loss in their previous game. When you look at the other side of the match-up, the 7 seed is just 1-14 in the last 15 games after winning the previous match-up between the two teams as an underdog, and they are just 4-22 as an away dog when coming off a win.
Although, this season lends another hurdle for the 7 seed with the play-in tournament, while they only have to win 1 game, unlike the 8 seed, but there is an added pressure and a definitive rest disadvantage.
It may create a confidence boost headed into the first game of the actually postseason bracket, but a home team with a rest advantage is 44-13 in the playoffs dating back to the 2012 season.
Timberwolves Take Down Clippers
Minnesota is coming into this series against Memphis with an early edge in the playoffs, while they are the least experienced playoff team dating back to 2010, winning just one game in their only trip to the postseason, they have already matched that total this year and they have more postseason wins than Memphis this year by default.
They are off a big 4th quarter comeback against the Clippers in their play-in game, winning 109-104. They allowed Los Angeles to shoot just 43.6% and allowed only one player (Normal Powell) to shoot over 50% from the field, out of players that attempted more than two shots, regardless of the fact that they shot under 44% themselves.
That outing reiterated the defensive presence that this team can possess, after allowing seven of the nine opponents, prior to the Clippers game, to shoot 50% or better, they held an opponent under 44% for just the 2nd time since St. Patrick's Day.
Now they travel to Memphis to take on a team that is shooting over 47% on average at home this season, but also a team that they beat in their last outing.
Road Woes for Wolves
Minnesota is 18-12 in their last 30 games after holding an opponent under 45% shooting, and they are an impressive 26-9 after a game that they won and covered (including 7-4 in the last 11 on the road, but just 1-4 as a road dog).
Although, the Timberwolves are one of just three teams (including the 8th seed) in the Western Conference that have a winning percentage under 50% on the road, but finishing just one game back with a 20-21 record.
They are putting up over 118 PPG on the road this season, shooting nearly 47%, but their defense is also allowing just over 118 PPG to the opposition, and allowing them to shoot over 48% on the season.
While being the 7 seed doesn't appear to side with Minnesota's odds historically, neither does the fact that they are just 1-7 as a road dog off a win in their previous game, and 0-6 as a road dog after allowing less then 105 points.
The big advantage that Minnesota does hold is the fact that their injuries have been minimal, Taurean Prince was a late addition to the injury report prior to the play-in game against the Clippers due to a knee issue, but that's been it.
Grizzlies Best Against The Spread This Season
For Memphis, a record of this caliber could easily justify a #1 seed in previous seasons, unless it is 2022 and the Grizzlies end up finishing 8 games behind a Phoenix team that broke their single season win total record. Nonetheless, Memphis had an impressive season behind the likes of Ja Morant.
They ended the year with the 3rd best winning percentage on their home court in the Western Conference, winning 30 of the 41 games they played on the season, and being without question the best team in the West when it comes to covering the spread this year.
They come into the postseason as one of the hottest teams down the stretch, even with their seeding clinched, they still closed out the season on a 7-3 run, hotter than everyone other than Dallas in the West.
Slight Injury Concerns Linger for Grizzlies
Not only does the rest advantage favor the 2 seed, in general, as well as favor the opponent of the Timberwolves, but it also favors Memphis specifically.
The Grizzlies are 17-4 in their last 21 games when playing with a rest advantage, including winning 11 of their last 12 opportunities at home, as well as going 14-2 in their last 16 games as a favorite when they have the rest advantage over the opponent.
Memphis has also had the definitive advantage over Minnesota in the head-to-head match-ups, winning (and covering) eight out of the ten meetings in the last three seasons, including all five games in Memphis, but as I mentioned before Minnesota got the best of them for just the 2nd time since 2019 in the previous meeting.
The question becomes can they do it again? While Memphis is just 1-2 on their home court when seeking revenge for a loss as a favorite, they are 12-5 on the season in those revenge games and 18-5 in the last 23 games when losing their previous match-up, regardless of the previous line.
Yet again, the questions surround the health of the Grizzlies, Tyrell Terry and Killian Tillie have been ruled out for game one of the series but they haven't been ruled out for any extended period of time beyond that.
They do have some big names on the injury report outside of these two players, but the rest of the report consists of players listed as "day-to-day" and all have high hopes of appearing on the court in the first game of this postseason for Memphis.
That list includes, Ja Morant, who looks to return after an extended absence to end the regular season, joining Jaren Jackson, Dillon Brooks, Tyus Jones and Steven Adams on the "day-to-day" list.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
The Timberwolves aren't good on the road this season and with them not having home court advantage it's going to be tough for them to upset the Grizzlies here for the series.
It's expected the Timberwolves will probably win game three or four, but the Grizzlies inexperience in the playoffs shouldn't come into play here.
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies 4-1 (+310)
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves Against the Spread Notes from GoldSheet
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