United States | Nevada and California
Into the West
Attention shifts to two states that are unused to it
Jan 10th 2008 | los angeles
THE West usually comes late to the primary season, by which point the excitement is over. This year it is crashing the party. Of the region's 11 states, seven will select their Republican and Democratic candidates by February 5th. This week prospective nominees turned their attention to two states that are unaccustomed to it. One is Nevada, which will hold caucuses on January 19th. The other is California, the greatest prize in the race. Although polling booths in California do not open until February 5th, half of the votes there are expected to be sent in early by post. The first ballots landed on doormats this week.
In 2004 fewer than 10,000 people turned up to the Democratic caucuses in Nevada. The American media have largely overlooked the state, as have the Republicans. They are more focused on South Carolina, which will pick a Republican candidate on the same day. But the Democrats see Nevada as a gateway to the West and a crucial source of momentum. Barack Obama dropped two references to the state into his concession speech in New Hampshire.
Until recently Nevada seemed to be in the bag for Hillary Clinton, who led in polls and had picked up endorsements from prominent Democrats. But this week Nevada's two most powerful unions threw their weight behind Mr Obama. The Culinary Workers Union has some 60,000 members, most of whom work in casinos, where, handily, some of the caucuses will be held. The Service Employees International Union is smaller but can draw organisers from neighbouring California. Since turnout is expected to be fairly low, the outcome of the caucuses is likely to turn on a contest between two get-out-the-vote operations—the unions' versus the Democratic establishment's.
In Iowa and New Hampshire Mr Obama did especially well among independent voters, well-off urbanites and the young. The first group is much prized game in the West. Democratic officials in California and Nevada have made it easy for independents to vote in their contests. The Republicans have not, so independents are forced into the Democratic race.
Mr Obama will need their support, because he faces a big disadvantage. California and Nevada are heavily Hispanic—in California there are as many Latinos aged 18 to 29 as whites and blacks put together. Not all can vote, and relatively few of those who can, will. But those who do are likely to support Mrs Clinton. California's leading Latino politicians have rallied to her, and polls put her lead among Hispanic voters somewhere between strong and overwhelming. Bill Richardson dropped out of the race on January 9th, so now there is no actual Hispanic to vote for.
Some of this has to do with the fact that many Latinos are working-class and thus attracted to Mrs Clinton's talk of economic problem-solving. But Mr Obama's race matters too. California's Latinos are frequently pitted against blacks in the zero-sum game of urban politics, which generates broader resentments.
Postal voters are Mrs Clinton's other strength. They are older than average, and she has done well among the old so far. They are enthusiastic: more than three-quarters returned their ballots in the 2006 mid-term elections. Like Rudy Giuliani, the Republican candidate with the strongest California operation, she will target them relentlessly. Both hope to win the big race before it has begun.
This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline "Into the West"
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