POLITICO Brussels Playbook, presented by Facebook: Halloween Brexit — Trump weighs in — Bloody difficult French
By	Florian Eder
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By FLORIAN EDER
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BOO! IT'S A HALLOWEEN BREXIT. European leaders agreed to delay the deadline for Britain's departure from the EU until October 31, with a review at the end of June. Those six months of limbo are a hard-fought compromise between nothing and a year-long extension. Pros: The U.K. will avoid the cliff edge it would have teetered over this Friday, and its associated problems. Con: They've created new problems instead (as any new date would have done).
Mo Brexit, mo problems: Brexit Day (Version 3.0) isn't really far enough into the future to meet the demands of those who were advocating for Britain to change its mind (via a second referendum). Because of that "review" clause, the divorce will dominate yet another regular EU summit in June — so much for the idea leaders could finally put this enormous distraction behind them and focus on other concerns.
Plus, there's the whole matter of the EU parliamentary election. The ballots cast by British voters in May will basically be pointless — the incoming U.K. MEPs will only sit for the first four months of the new term, during which time they're unlikely to get a look-in at much legislation (as is par for the course). But the British cohort will effect the majority ratio in the chamber at a time when the European Parliament needs to get its act together and find agreement on its own candidate for Commission president, whom they will then force upon the European Council (our shorthand version of the post-electoral power play).
Look out for reactions from Parliament today: Some groups might be very happy with this outcome — like the S&D, which will expect a big upswing in its numbers courtesy of the British Labour Party. Others much less so — look to the EPP, which has no large British contingent (no doubt its leaders are again cursing David Cameron, who pulled the Tories out of the family). So it'll be interesting to see how Parliament reacts to the summit compromise — its President Antonio Tajani said earlier Wednesday that his institution "doesn't intend to be ridiculed" and the EU election is "not a game."
Tusk to Brits: Get your House in order. During the extension, "the course of action will be entirely in the U.K.'s hands," European Council President Donald Tusk said after the summit. "It can still ratify the Withdrawal Agreement, in which case the extension will be terminated. It can also reconsider the whole Brexit strategy. That might lead to changes in the Political Declaration, but not in the Withdrawal Agreement. Until the end of this period, the U.K. will also have the possibility to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit altogether." He finished with a message to the Brits: "Please do not waste this time."
May to MPs: Get over yourselves. "The U.K. should have left the EU by now and I sincerely regret the fact that I have not yet been able to persuade parliament to approve a deal," May said in her own concluding statement. "Tomorrow I will be making a statement to the House of Commons. Further talks will also take place between the government and the opposition to seek a way forward. I do not pretend the next few weeks will be easy or that there is a simple way to break the deadlock in parliament. But we have a duty as politicians to find a way to fulfill the democratic decision of the referendum, deliver Brexit and move our country forward."
Trump to EU: Stop being so mean! "Too bad that the European Union is being so tough on the United Kingdom and Brexit," the U.S. president tweeted shortly after the EU summit wrapped up. "The E.U. is likewise a brutal trading partner with the United States, which will change. Sometimes in life you have to let people breathe before it all comes back to bite you!"
GOOD MORNING. Leaders didn't have much to laugh about at their meeting, which ended at 2 a.m., but they grasped any opportunity for mirth, it would seem. British officials explained (after seeking consent from the German side), why Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May shared a laugh after the former showed the latter something on her iPad. It was a side-by-side image showing the two taking questions in their respective parliaments Wednesday, both wearing blue jackets. (There were some differences though: Bundestag members only asked Merkel a single Brexit-related question.)
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EU SUMMITRY
GOODIE BAG: POLITICO's summitry team has your essential EU summit wrap-up | Catch up on the blow-by-blow with our live blog | Final summit conclusions | Donald Tusk's full post-summit statement | Theresa May's full statement
THE FRENCH SPHINX: Ever since the June 2016 referendum, at every single EU summit, European leaders have been asking Theresa May what Britain actually wants (without particular success). But this summit was a little different: It was French President Emmanuel Macron who seemed unable to relay his desires. Macron's demands for leaders to grant only a short extension of the U.K.'s Brexit deadline, caused, well, "confusion" at the summit, particularly among those in the long-extension camp, led by Merkel, according to two EU diplomats, who weren't quite sure what the aim of the French pressure really was.
Does Macron just like being bad cop? An Élysée official said France was comfortable in the role of "bad cop" if it served to apply pressure on Britain to finally take a decision on what kind of Brexit it wanted, adding: "We take responsibility for our firmness." But such explanatory briefings didn't really help other delegations get to the root cause of the French discontent about a risk-avoidance strategy that most others, according to diplomats, were inclined to settle on. "We are hostages of a small group of mainly Francophones doing it for purely domestic show," one senior official complained.
The problem with such 'shows': How will it look to political rivals at home when you come back with a few lines of EU legalese after seeking to bar Britain from exercizing its voting rights in the Council and insisting the U.K. should not be allowed to nominate a new European commissioner? That last suggestion prompted forceful pushback during the summit from Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, according to a senior official. (Side note: Assuming Britain does leave at the end of October, it'll be gone just before the new college is supposed to take office anyway, meaning it won't actually need to nominate a new commissioner.)
ON THOSE SAFEGUARDS: There are a few lines in the conclusions that are meant to tell the U.K. it can't go rogue during the extended Article 50 period …
— The European Council "agrees to an extension to allow for the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement." Translation: The negotiations are over and the deal won't be reopened, meaning Britain can only use the extra time to find a parliamentary majority for a deal-based exit — or leave without one.
— Article 7 of the conclusions notes "the commitment by the United Kingdom to act in a constructive and responsible manner throughout the extension in accordance with the duty of sincere cooperation." An EU diplomat argued that's "a very strong reference," and that Britain's "special status" as a leaving member means an even stronger duty to be loyal. The conclusions say the U.K. will be obliged to fulfill "this treaty-based obligation in a manner that reflects its situation as a withdrawing member." The conclusions also request London restrain itself "in particular when participating in the decision-making process of the Union."
Careful what you wish for: Note, for instance, that both France and Germany were very happy London voted with them the last time the Copyright Directive was on the ambassadors' agenda — there wouldn't have been a majority in Council without the U.K.
But the conclusions also can't skate around this simple truth: The European Council notes "the United Kingdom will remain a member state with full rights and obligations" during the extension period.
SO WHAT'S EVERYONE SO AFRAID OF? Arch Tory Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg gave voice to the very thing the EU is worried about, tweeting last week that if May is forced to accept a long extension, the U.K. should be "as difficult as possible," vetoing budget proposals and obstructing Macron's EU reform plans. The easy take on this is that such behavior is exactly what some Hanseats or Germans would consider helpful, rather than obstructive, to their cause. In any case, a court-proof attempt to stop Britain from being difficult, unconstructive or irresponsible will be very hard to find.
The UK has form in using such tactics — and they failed, Tom McTague reminds us in this history lesson.
NO UNANIMITY REQUIRED: Truth be told, the coming months aren't particularly loaded with ordinary legislation, so there might only be a a couple of opportunities for the U.K. to act in good or bad faith. And even the big decisions on the EU's future leadership don't require unanimity in Council — most Commission and two European Council presidents, for instance, might have been nominated unanimously in the past, but neither do the EU treaties require that nor have the current holders of either office been elevated (or reappointed, in Tusk's case) by every single leader around the table. Qualified majority wins the day.
REAL BREXIT: Matei Rosca explains "how a footloose fintech firm did its Brexit 'jurisdiction shopping'" — and landed on Amsterdam.
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EU ELECTION AHEAD
BLOODY DIFFICULT FRENCH: The snap-frozen Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is "obsolete" and "no longer relevant," EU countries plan to say today in a bid to placate French concerns on the launch of new U.S. trade talks. EU ambassadors will meet this afternoon to discuss — and potentially approve — new mandates for negotiating a limited trade deal (second link for POLITICO Pro Trade, Agriculture and Food, Health Care, Tech, Brexit and Mobility subscribers). France has so far blocked the approval.
Paris demanded EU countries first revoke the old mandate for TTIP, which Washington and Brussels negotiated from 2013 to 2016 and which caused a public backlash in many European countries (including pre-Yellow Jackets France). The Romanian Council presidency has circulated a draft text saying "the negotiating directives for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership must be considered obsolete and no longer relevant," according to two EU officials.
Will that be enough to get France's approval for the mandates? A French spokesperson declined to comment, and three EU diplomats said they, too, had received no clear answer from their French colleagues. Hans von der Burchard has the story for Trade Pros.
READING HELP: Tired of studying election manifestos? You'll be forgiven if you admit to never having read one: Help is on its way. The European Movement Germany has taken a look at the country's main parties and their programs and promises for the European election. One striking point is that every party — the CDU and CSU, SPD, the Greens, FDP, and the Left — calls for European Parliament to get the right of initiative. (The AfD, which wants to abolish the European Parliament, is the only outlier.) Remember that, should we ever get a treaty-change discussion. The synopsis will be presented later today, but here's a preview for you.
INCOMING: Far-right parties in France and Germany are outpacing mainstream political groups on Facebook when posting about the European election and winning engagement from users, according to data reviewed by POLITICO's Mark Scott.
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MEPs WHO MATTERED: As MEPs' terms come to an end this month ahead of the European Parliament election in May, POLITICO looks at the 40 lawmakers who have had the greatest impact on the most high-profile debates of the past five years. Check out the full list here.
NO-SHOW, NO BADGE: ExxonMobil lobbyists in Brussels risk having their European Parliament badges withdrawn, after company reps were a no-show at a committee hearing on "climate change denial" in March. The company cited "ongoing climate-change related litigation in the U.S." as its reason for not coming, in a response to MEPs.
The call for access to be restricted, issued by a number of Green MEPs in a letter to Parliament President Antonio Tajani, has at least made it onto the agenda of today's meeting of parliamentary group chairs. According to Parliament's own rules of procedure, lobbyists shall have their access badges denied if they have "refused, without offering a sufficient justification, to comply with a formal summons to attend a hearing or committee meeting or to cooperate with a committee of inquiry."
SLOVENIA-CROATIA WAR OF WORDS: Slovenian Prime Minister Marjan Šarec accused Croatia of "outrageous" behavior, alleging Zagreb tried to suppress a media report that Croatian spies helped scupper efforts to end a border dispute, report Jacopo Barigazzi and Andrew Gray.
MIGRANTS FLEE LIBYAN 'PRISON': Monika Prończuk reports that faced with brutality in Libya and rising smugglers' fees, people are temporarily putting plans to reach Europe on hold — and heading to Tunisia to escape.
Speaking of Libya: The EU will call on Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the self-styled Libyan National Army in eastern Libya, to halt his forces' offensive, Reuters reports.
WHAT DOES A BLACK HOLE LOOK LIKE? Well, erm, it's black and surrounded by a halo of matter, we discovered Wednesday. "The image was equivalent to focusing on a mustard seed in Washington as seen from Brussels," writes Joshua Posaner. And even though the project was a joint effort among 40 countries, the announcement was used by the EU to grab a share of the cosmic glory from the U.S. His excellent story here.
AWARDED: The European Emergency Number Association has recognized MEP Dita Charanzová with a political achievement award for outstanding contributions to public safety in Europe.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Zdzisław Krasnodębski; MEP (one of the ones who mattered) and POLITICO 28 alum Guy Verhofstadt; Darren Murphy from Bell Pottinger Geopolitical; Paul Adamson of eSharp.
THANK YOU: All of POLITICO's fellow summiteers and our producer Ali Walker.
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