Q:

Misidentified Copyright Takedown

I'm a full time youtuber and I recently received a copyright takedown that I am 99.9% sure is either a mistake or outright fraud.
I went through youtube's system to dispute the claim, but it was rejected twice.
The company filing the claim is listed as 'UMPG Publishing' (VCPMC_CS), and they are claiming ownership of "Hallo Main Theme Cover". (the actual copyright notification has this odd misspelling of Halo as "Hallo")

Halo and all of it's music is owned and published by Microsoft, and on their official website they state that it is okay to use the content from their games in youtube videos.
(https://www.xbox.com/en-US/developers/rules) The claim also reports it as a "Cover" instead of as the actual song which is very odd.
I also looked on the UMPG music catalog for anything related to the Halo OST and found nothing: https://www.umusicpub.com/us/Digital-Music-Library/search/Hallo
I feel like I have every reason to doubt the validity of this claim, but if I file a counter notification I am opening my self up to a lawsuit. But I also don't think I can afford to just concede either. I post videos rather infrequently and spend up to a month working on each one. This video has already pulled a million views and if I just let this go I'll lose a lot of money.
I'm not certain what I should do. All my attempts to contact the company by phone or email have failed. What kind of trouble would I be in if I file a counter notification and they come after me?

A:

You are correct that you are inviting a lawsuit if you file a counter-notice. You are also correct that it might be a clerical error. Your attorney is the guy who recommends a best course of action for you. Part of the ensuing trouble would be the bill from your attorney.
If the copyright holder wins in court, they could recover from you based on actual damages, statutory damages, and profits under 17 U.S.C. §504. The first is how much they lost (e.g. via sales or licensing fees) from your infringement. The second is a fixed amount ranging from $200 to $150,000, depending, provided that the work is registered. It is more likely that your case would fall in the $200 category, given a mistaken belief that you had permission as innocent infringement. The last is about whatever profits you made from the infringement that exceeds the copyright holder's losses.
Incidentally, under the relevant provision, 17 USC 512(g)(2)(C), they will restore your material shortly after receiving the counter notification,

unless its designated agent first receives notice from the person who
submitted the notification under subsection (c)(1)(C) that such person
has filed an action seeking a court order to restrain the subscriber
from engaging in infringing activity relating to the material on the
service provider’s system or network.

Notice that all that YT has to have done is received notification that a lawsuit was filed. The other party does not have to prove to the provider that they filed a lawsuit.

