 Are we in trouble?
aristus: No one knows, and unless you have mountains of cash to invest, there's no reward for being right either way. The only thing you can do is think through the absolute worst that can happen (to 1% or whatever your level of paranoia) and plan to deal with that. ie, your income is X, can you live on 0.5X? Better to find out now and not when your personal trapdoor opens. But take it calmly, like a game. If you spend all of your energy in Holy Shit Mode you stop moving forward.Some friends of mine today got two messages from their employers: their pay was cut 18% and their insurance premiums went up 23%. It's going to hurt but the worst thing they can do is let the fear sap their energy.I personally think it's going to be bad for 12-18 months then a slow recovery. The financial assumptions for many businesses and people will fall away. If you are in some business that depends on consumer discretionary funds, I would look for alternatives (not jump like a spooked cat, look for for alternatives ahead of time).If it's any consolation my Brasilian, Venezuelan and Argentinian friends think we're all a bunch of pussies for worrying so much and not preparing rationally.