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Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | getp: The irrationality you are referring to is called the self-serving bias (SSB). I wrote a thesis on overconfidence for my master in behavioral economics, and the two are related. SSB is a well-documented bias. For instance, 90% of American drivers think they are in the top 50%. It's hard for people to fully appreciate this fact. Allow me to illustrate. Do you still consider yourself, even after reading this statistic, to be in the bottom 50% of drivers? If so, then you're a minority, my friend ;-) (10%, to be exact) |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | johnrob: This is human nature. It happens everywhere, the most commonplace example is a lottery ticket: that is a negative sum game. Venture capital is also a negative sum game (EDIT: I'm actually not sure about this, the winnings of top VCs might outweigh the losses of the majority).Risk hungry people will pay a premium for increased upside. For example, they will prefer a win 20-lose 30 game over a win 10-lose 0, because 20 > 10. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | aaronblohowiak: Being a quant has a certain appeal, but nothing (to me) is as appealing as creating tools that people use to accomplish things.Gambling on anticipating/creating the future is not an easy way to make money. However I agree that there is no wealth creation resulting from this (the increased liquidity of the market due to new kinds of derivatives may increase the efficiency of the market, but I think you are talking about "simple" trading.) |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | rrival: I have a Series 3 (futures/forex) license and worked in that industry for about 6 months. It was like the bad parts of Boiler Room. I left when I realized the shop I was working for had no problem ripping off retail clients and allowing them to speculate with money they didn't have; clients had to sell their homes to cover their obligations.Bona fide hedging is a lucrative business for the companies involved, whether that's hedging against currency or commodity price fluctuations. It's also more "buy side" than "sell side" - you're dealing with companies rather than 'raising money' from new clients who get blown out over the course of 3 months.I know a few successful options traders. It's highly lucrative (high 6 figs base after a few years), you just need the pedigree and the intellect to pull it off. If you're in a position to do that, though, you might try to get an analyst job, get on a path to assistant portfolio management, portfolio management, keep a good track record and start a hedge fund. That's all buy side and would allow for some flexibility in the strategies you implement. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | rrival: Wrt to the "why" of the market, without speculation, liquidity is far lower. Take a look at the Chicago Climate Exchange's (CCX) price fluctuations compared to a fall expiring wheat contract on the CME/CBOT - you can move the CCX with a small amount of money. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | brentr: First, options and futures involve a sub-zero game. Money leaks out via commissions.Second, there are two types of players in this game. The first group is the speculators. They play the game for profit from the game. The second group is risk managers. They play the game for risk reduction. Speculators serve the risk managers. The speculator's strategy is starkly different than the risk manager's strategy. The speculator can profit by optimizing his strategy.EDIT: The assumptions made by Black, Scholes, and Merton are highly idealized. There is much research to still be done in the area of behavioral finance and the game theoretic approach to derivatives pricing.I've thought about conducting graduate research in this area because the mathematics are truly fascinating in this branch of finance/economics. When you start exploring this area from a game theory approach, you can start to understand why John Nash won the Nobel. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | Tichy: I am not sure that traders don't create value. Their job is to allocate money to the most useful company, I suppose? |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | icey: I'll save someone the task of googling Nicholas Taleb. I think this link has been here before, but even so, it's a good one:http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | jaydub: I think it has to do with the "superstar" phenomenon that Taleb discusses in Fooled by Randomness & The Black Swan. Being a dentist, you are not likely to see a multi-million dollar salary - yet you can definitely live comfortably.What I believe Taleb's philosophy _was_ (he now remarks in bold text: "Finance is for philistines!" on http://fooledbyrandomness.com/ ) that by exploiting the random nature of markets he could "swing for the fences" by placing many small extremely risky bets that if they paid off -- even infrequently -- would guarantee him a lot of money.From the little that I know/think I know: Options are a good way to leverage small amounts of capital into potentially large gains. If the price of the underlying security doesn't behave as you expected you can let your option contract expire worthless - meaning you have a defined risk which is what appealed to Taleb. Even in the worst case he knew how much was at stake. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | bdr: Has anyone else read "Nonzero" by Robert Wright? It's one of two nonfiction books that have noticeably improved my understanding of the world, with almost daily benefits. (The other is The Black Swan.) |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | menloparkbum: Competitive sports are also zero-sum games. Traders are banking "jocks." They are traders because it is a zero sum game, and they think they have what it takes to win. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | xlnt: speculation done right consists of creating knowledge about what resources will be in what demand in the future, and then saving resources that are cheap now but will be expensive later. doing this raises the price a bit now (b/c you buy a bunch) and lowers it then (b/c supply is higher then). you make money smoothing out price fluctuations. this is a valuable service -- price fluctuations can really hurt people or companies that don't have spare money at the moment.there is a limit on how much total money can be made doing this. the more people do it, the less price fluctuations are available to even out.but anyway, there are good types of trading. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | davidmathers: Zero-sum depends on your perspective. Speaking strictly in theory here: a successful speculator creates value in the same way a hunter creates value when he sharpens his spear. By taking decision making power (money) away from people who make wrong decisions he "sharpens" the market and makes it a more useful tool when other people use it to create value. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | byrneseyeview: It isn't zero sum, any more than manufacturing is zero sum because all you did was expend energy rearranging the same old atoms.Trading well requires you to synthesize information that other people will act on. If oil is too cheap, you buy oil, this raises the price and alleviates the problem. The fact that this causes some people to lose money is material, but it just means that trading is a way to redistribute wealth from people who are usually wrong to people who are usually right. I do not see how anyone could believe that this isn't socially useful. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | mynameishere: Trading long is positive sum. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | mattmaroon: It's not uniformly irrational or unprofitable to enter a zero sum game. I made a great living for over 5 years playing a zero sum game, and know lots of people who have done it for far longer. Not options trading though. That one in particular I can't speak to.It's often not that hard to prove within a reasonable certainty that you are a winner (or at least were one), depending on the variance. I haven't looked into the coefficient of variation of options trading though. I might one day.Also, whether or not something is competitive has nothing to do with whether or not it is a zero sum game. It is generally just a factor of how much money can be made. The software industry is not zero sum, but is highly competitive. Low stakes poker tables are zero sum, but are not competitive at all. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | andr: As a person that has been on both the positive and the negative side of the sum, I can tell you that most people don't really think about this when they get into the speculation.1) Serious quant trader types are rarely good at anything other than mathematics. Even if they are, if they are getting $500k+/yr it would be hard to start as an entry-level engineer for $60k. So most people don't really have an option once they get started in trading.2) It's addictive. The top hedge fund manager in the US is paid to the tune of $1.7 BILLION per year. On January 2nd the next year, he's back in the office. Once you get in the quickpaced environment of trading everything else looks very boring.3) It's usually a collective game, so your particular performance is not as important as the performance of the firm. You could do excellent, but somebody else could tank the whole bank. Similarly, you could have a bad year, but if the company is doing OK you'll still get a decent bonus.After all, the same applies for startups. If you don't assume that you are better than most people at what you do, there's hardly a point in doing it. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | ad: Short answer: No, don't do it.Long answer:
For anyone interested in this stuff I highly recommend the book Trading & Exchanges by Larry Harris. The book is about market microstructure, and the knowledge applies to any market whether it's equities or options or online gambling like intrade.com. It's a textbook, so not riveting reading, but great information.As other posters have pointed out, it depends on how you define zero-sum. Trading is zero-sum, when you compare it against market returns. However, as a trader you are providing services such as immediacy and liquidity. My AAPL stock is more valuable to me as an investor, since there is an active market, and people are willing to sell it to me and buy it from me on short notice, even though I am losing some money to them through the bid-ask spread and execution costs. The other comments about options being useful for spreading out risk are true as well.As far as the rationality goes, it's rational if you're an expert, you have better information than the market, if reading the above textbook kept you up late at night, etc. Your intuition about the odds are correct, though, so keep your pessimism handy.So why is my short answer 'no'? Well if you don't have the patience to read the whole post then you definitely shouldn't do it, since learning all the math behind it is going to be way more boring. You've read Taleb which is a good sign. Now that you're at the end the answer is 'maybe', but your wording concerns me: what do you mean by "getting into" options trading? If you're going to get some intensive training and learn from professionals working at reputable investment firms, then great. If you're going to read a few articles off the internet and then dive in, then that is definitely not a good idea. Trading is all about having an edge against the person you're trading with, so a few articles don't improve your odds much. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | dfranke: Options trading is not zero sum because the utility of money is not linear. When a rich person gives money to a poor person, the net gain is positive because the poor person can use the money to satisfy more basic needs that the rich person has already satisfied, and thus would otherwise have spent the money on something with a smaller return.As brentr already pointed out, some people trade options for risky gains (such as selling an uncovered call), and some people trade them to offset risk (such as buying an underwater put). Acting in the latter category is like buying insurance: even though your expected return on money is negative, your expected return on utility might still be positive. Acting in the former category is like selling insurance: you run the risk of taking a big hit, but your expected return is still positive. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | ctkrohn: Speaking as a trader at a major Wall Street firm... if you want a job that will allow you to relax, or if you aren't interested in "working to stay ahead," it's best to stay away from trading. Seriously. The hours aren't quite as bad as the investment banking/corporate finance guys, but I work 13+ hours a day, and my hours are not atypical for a junior guy. If you aren't going to work as hard as the competition, you'd better find some way to be smarter than them.If you are interested in getting into option trading, make sure you understand it cold. Know what delta, gamma, vega, and theta are. Understand the relationship between these parameters and the price of an option: be able to explain it intuitively, and be able to derive the relationship from an option pricing formula. Understand implied volatility and the connection between vol and option prices. Build a simple Black-Scholes pricer to allow you to compute your own implied vol. Know why the vol surface has the shape it does. Make sure you realize that volatility is directional: vol goes up when markets go down. If you are playing index options vs. single-name options, make sure you understand your correlation risk. The list goes on and on.Options are interesting, though, because they allow you to trade volatility. Vol is a more complicated thing than simple price movement, so if you understand it well you could have an edge over your competition.Finally... I think trading is a good job choice for young, ambitious, and numerically minded people. Seems like there are a lot of readers like that here... maybe I'll write a more detailed article about this sort of thing later. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | greatreorx: "When you enter the game, you are assuming that you are better than at least half of the other players."I think the difference is - at what point does that assumption become atleast somewhat provable. Shaquille O'Neal was probably an athletic 6'10" 280 lbs in high school. Just because the game of basketball itself is zero sum, does that make it irrational to think that he would become a decent professional basketball player?My favorite part of Taleb's book is when he describes the investing world as if all player's had a random 50/50 shot of making money each year. There are millions of investors, by random chance thousands will do really well, a handful will do really, really well over the course of decades. How do you know Warren Buffet is not part of that handful that is successful purely by chance? It's been awhile since I've read the book, but I remember his philosophy being something like if you have a logical investing/hypothesis that gets proven results, then maybe we can say it's not by chance.So to answer your question, if you think you have an objective theory/algorithm/etc for option trading and have done blind historical tests or have successfully paper traded for a year+, then you might be on to something. If you think you are just smarter than everybody else, or maybe had a couple successful stock trades, it's probably not a good idea. |
Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum? | daniel-cussen: In theory, a good speculator allocates money more efficiently. In 2004 this might have meant shorting Bear Stearns and buying stock in Google. Google could then sell stock to raise money, or take out a loan with its own stock as collateral, to pursue projects with the money. In theory, a good trader lends money to the companies that deserve those resources the most. So, as far as I can tell, it isn't a zero-sum game.If the entire stock market does its job like this, money gets to googles more easily than it gets to pets.com. The economy uses capital more efficiently, and grows more than it would otherwise.Of course, that's all in theory. In practice, being an investment banker is rough. |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | run4yourlives: I don't know you, and I could probably churn out a bunch of semi-valuable tips, but instead of doing that, I'm going to suggest the following: Find a partner that has the business skills you lack in marketing/sales/promotion.I think you'll be much better off with someone like this worrying about these problems while you handle the technical realities. Once you get customers, the problems of getting them will seem trivial to the problem of keeping them.Good luck. |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | matthewking: Open your product to beta testers, and hopefully once the beta period stops, a certain percentage of the testers will have built a reliance upon your software, and sign up to the paid account.You can also use the testers for testimonials etc for your site. A referral fee will then help push your current customers to recommend it to their friends.It'll be a lot easier to find people to sign up for free, then it will to sign them up immediately for a paid account.You can then convert them later :) |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | bayes: I'm sure this is hopelessly old-fashioned, but we advertised. Our web business is aimed specifically at artists, so we advertised in print magazines aimed at artists, handed out fliers at art exhibitions etc. |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | brlewis: My first customer was not a paying customer. It was probably my 4th or 5th that actually paid. The first people are really beta testers.I knew people liked it when they asked what it cost.Disclaimer: I'm still a long way from profitable, and I'm not totally committed to the subscription model. In 2007 my subscription revenue was $70.50 and ad revenue was $2.05. |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | jakewolf: Adwords! It's converting profitably for a subscription site I'm helping out with. Can't wait to qualify for Google CPA - http://adwords.google.com/support/bin/answer.py?answer=60150... |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | whyleyc: Offer a compelling free service that reels users in and then sell added-extras in the subscription account that they can't live without - aka the "freemium" model.This is what 37Signals do so well, we operate a similar model at Zamzar and more recently Animoto seem to have struck gold with this approach - with them you can cut a 30 second video mix of photos and music, but if you need more time you have to pay. |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | izak30: My product is based on a subscription model. Here's what we did.
First: Make something that people want and would be willing to pay for.
Second: Tell everyone you know that's what your doing. Ask people who they know that might be interested. People are usually willing to help and give you a name or two.
Third: Don't count-out old-school marketing. Cold calls, business events, etc, go to them. Meet your competitors, usually they won't be adverse to this and you shouldn't be either, you can always learn something from them.Know your competitors very well, and know what they do well and what they do poorly (or at least what you do better). This is important.Third: Have a working demo. I don't give away free trials, I have a demo. This may or may not work for your product.Fourth: Follow up with everybody, always send thank you notes, and follow up a week later, every week until they give you some straight answer.I'm a coder who is very new to sales, but I've had some good people around me that were quite good at sales. Meet those people, show them your product, ask for some help. |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | skmurphy: The teams I know that were able to attract early customers had a sales pitch (a clear benefit, demonstrable difference from alternatives, and a reason to believe) and were "open for business" (had a company and a way to accept payment). It's hard to tell where you are in the cycle but those would be two places to start. |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | there: i posted here on hacker news and got 3 subscriptions out of it when my product first launched.http://corduroysite.com/ |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | aantix: Find the biggest communities dedicated to the niche your software services. Big Boards is a good starting place.
http://www.big-boards.com/Then jump into the forums and start posting responses. You don't want to come off spammy, but definitely try to slip in references to your site whenever applicable. |
How did you do on the Android Dev Challenge? | davidw: Both my Hecl entry and my client's entry were "top quartile", but... yeah, top 25% is still more than 400 apps. A "quick and dirty crappy" app that I also sent in for the hell of it placed in the 50-75% quartile, meaning that the last quartile was probably full of applications that simply didn't work. |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | aneesh: Are you solving a real problem for someone? Whose problem are you solving? You should have a flesh-and-blood person you can point to (not just "surfers", or "facebook users"). If you don't actually know someone who has that problem, how do you know people are willing to pay for it?So I'd say you have to know your first customer, and build from there. If you don't personally know them, go to a meeting, conference, or mixer and meet them. As uncomfortable as you may be, just do it, or find a partner who is good at it.Maybe for a free site like facebook, you can "build it and they will come", but if you want people to pay you, you have to get up from your computer and sell your product. |
How did you do on the Android Dev Challenge? | DenisM: It's about time to get over it and move to something productive - until Android ships devices in a quantity it's just a waste of time to spend any time on it.There are other phones with install base out there: Blackberry, Windows Mobile, IPhone, Symbian, Brew, J2ME. |
How did you do on the Android Dev Challenge? | eugenejen: My entry got the same quartile as martythemaniak's app. I think my stuff is a quick & dirty app to prove an idea. It took me 40 hours to implement it. |
How did you do on the Android Dev Challenge? | aschobel: Nice! Mine didn't score as well.On the surface it wasn't that much different than the default ListActivity.Like an iceberg all the interesting bits are underneath. It allowed for async updates and other neat things.Also this is a client for a product that hasn't been publicly released, so it's akin to submitting a Twitter client before Twitter launched. |
ASK HN: What is the logic that links would expire on HN? | eru: As far as I know they store a continuation for each page you view. And after some time they just delete the continuation.(Please look up call/cc if you want to learn more about this.) |
Subscription web sites: How did you get your first customer? | clintavo: At the risk of stating the obvious . . . .Don't build your app and then look for your first customer.Find your customer first, find a need, and then build an app that fills that need.Listen carefully to things people you know say, if you're paying attention, you will hear tons of needs waiting to be filled. |
Where to look for info on E-Commerce websites? | lanej0: It's hard to gauge your level of expertise from your post, but if you're a fairly non-technical person (don't mean to offend), you may be better off looking at some sort of pre-built option. Amazon offers "stores" where people can go set up their own shop. eBay's another option (although they're kind of ghetto these days).If you're determined to go it on your own, take a look at some of the really great open-source e-commerce packages out there (Google it). After a few clicks, you're usually in to adding products.Especially with E-commerce, it's better to test the waters with something before you invest a ton of time in it. Don't build something from scratch at this stage. |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | edw519: The foam earplugs never worked for me.This did:http://www.amazon.com/Alpha-Relaxation-System-Active/dp/B000... |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | tlrobinson: It's certainly possible. I have this weird ability to basically turn off my ears when I'm concentrating on something.It can be annoying though, since if someone is trying to get my attention they'll have to yell my name maybe 10 times. |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | epi0Bauqu: I have no problem working with some types of noise, such as noise from a bunch of people doing random things, like at an airport or coffee shop. But repeated annoying noises, like a jackhammer or dog barking, really, well, annoys me.Two solutions.1) Music. Turn it up or wear headphones.2) Noise canceling headphones. I don't use them personally, but a lot of people I know do, and they seem to like them. |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | lbrandy: a nice pair of over-ear noise canceling headphones? Yes, low music (even classical) is more distracting than silence, but you'll get used to it (like I did). And, it's certainly better than outside noise. |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | mhb: How about the earmuff style?http://www.amazon.com/Peltor-Professional-Canceling-Earmuff-... |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | dcurtis: A couple of years ago, I discovered Etymotic ER-4p headphones. They block out practically all the ambient noise. When I need to concentrate, I put them on and listen to some calm music.I've never liked earplugs, but the triple-flange thing on the end of the Etymotics is remarkably comfortable. |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | Harkins: I find it's only possible when I really like what I'm working on. If I do, the rest of the world ceases to exist. I could probably work in the middle of a construction or demolition site for all it would matter.If I don't like my coworkers, or the project is a stupid time-waster, or my boss is a jerk, or I otherwise don't care, I hear every interruption and they usually make me angry. I'll never stop being distracted, maybe because I want something to distract me to get away from it.I know it sounds trite, but I ranted endlessly about the half-height cubicles at a previous job, how I could hear folks from far away, had no privacy, couldn't get into the zone. Now I'm doing work I like a lot and I can't say I even care about the half-height cubicles, though I guess I'd say I want more privacy if you asked. |
Have you used iptables to prevent procrastination? | xlnt: i hear comcast already provides a free service something like this |
Have you used iptables to prevent procrastination? | bartman: I actually thought about doing this quite a few times, but ran off procastinating instead of reading the man page. Will try, thanks! |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | Prrometheus: My roommate can only study with horrible emo rock music turned up to concert-level volume. Finals week is unbearable. |
Have you used iptables to prevent procrastination? | b3eck: Please correct me if I'm wrong, but here's a guess at a Mac OS X version of the commands: sudo ipfw add 1 pipe 1 src-port 80
sudo ipfw pipe 1 config bw 500Byte/s |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | coderrr: i don't have a suggestion for a solution, but you should read this about the effects of noise pollution:http://www.noiseandhealth.org/article.asp?issn=1463-1741;yea... |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | markbao: White noise. Free generators available in the form of software, or just a .wav that you can loop. Works well in noisy environments, and the white noise blankets all noise so that you get used to it and it eventually fades out - for SOME people. For others, it's just annoying. |
Have you used iptables to prevent procrastination? | kogir: Or, if you need full access (including web) to the local subnet, but wish to restrict your internet access, just remove your default gateway. I do this regularly with good results. |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | mechanical_fish: In Peopleware Demarco and Lister cite 1960s-era research from Cornell which found that having music on in the background did not interfere with logic or arithmetical thinking, but reduced people's ability to make creative leaps. Even if you think you're not listening to the music, part of your brain is being distracted by it.There are many who find that white noise works better than music. And there are those who require music to get anything done at all -- maybe these are the exceptions that prove the rule (hey, it's psychology -- there are exceptions to every rule), or maybe they're people who would otherwise be really creative in finding ways to waste time instead of getting work done. ;)But the Peopleware conclusion is that there really is nothing that's as good as actual quiet. That matches my experience, and apparently yours as well. Perhaps you need to do what so many other hackers are driven to do: Find the hours of the day when the building is quiet and work then. Or line your office space in soundproofing foam. Or find a quiet library nearby. Or move as soon as you can...I second the recommendation of Etymotic ER-4P earphones, BTW, if there's no other option but to try them. |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | mynameishere: Or should I continue knocking on people's doors and complaining?This will only drive you to madness. You have a few practical options, mostly already covered:1) White (actually pink) noise generation. Cheapest way is to get a box fan and let it run.2) Active noise cancellation. You can get Bose headphones. Sony Walkmans have built-in noise cancellation that works ok.3) Best bet: Find a better place. Lots of buildings are designed such that noise is minimal. I'm in such a place right now. |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | rms: You could try sound insulating your apartment with fiberglass and egg cartons.If you don't like in-ear sound protection, what about the full size over ear ones people use when they are shooting guns? |
Have you used iptables to prevent procrastination? | leisuresuit: just put the sites you waste most of your time on in your hosts file like this:reddit.com 127.0.0.1problem solved, forever. |
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself? | bigtoga: A healthy dose of skepticism works well for me. I'm happy to share certain details with close friends and colleagues but less likely to divulge critical processes to someone who I meet off of craigslist.I will say that ideas are more sacred when they are still only ideas. Once I've executed on the idea, I'm happy to talk about the current implementation but not likely to divulge thoughts on future growth except to trusted advisors. |
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself? | blogimus: If you are by yourself, I firmly believe you need someone you trust to talk to. Everyone really needs a sounding board. I suggest that you try to find a partner or two. I'm kind of in the same boat and am contacting key people who I trust in my network for feedback and interest. |
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself? | xenoterracide: depends on the product. the likelyhood of competition, and what kind of secrets you are devulging. I wouldn't tell people how to make your product. But, I believe someone said it on a thread recently (maybe blog entry) that not talking is overrated (paraphrase). Don't give up patent secrets or what your trump card is. But 99% of people ain't going to hurt you, your biggest problem will eventually become needing to tell people. |
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself? | ideas101: it depends whom you are talking to - be smart enough to get alert if someone starts asking too many critical questions (especially about business model) ... also you can share only the outline of the idea (to get a response) rather than sharing the real meat. sometime you can also keep it very generic and simple, for example i'm planing to start a social/dating portal - where people get responses right away for their match - now by knowing this no one can figure it out how exactly you are going to do it and how it is going to be different from the rest of the competitor and what will be your business model/revenue stream etc. |
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself? | jonnytran: I used to not tell anyone much more than a brief gist. But as time and projects have gone by, I'm starting to switch viewpoints.Basically, 90% of the people I talk to couldn't implement my idea or simply don't care. Those that could implement it won't, b/c they think they have better ideas. Of the few who could and might, it's your job to convince them that their best chance of making it work is by joining you.On top of that, I've found that talking about what you're going to do is a self-fulfilling prophecy.That said, I would never go around telling the juiciest parts of my ideas to people I didn't already trust, or post them online where anyone and their mom can steal them without much remorse. |
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself? | bkbleikamp: i think this is a good example of why a search box on HN might be helpful - i have seen this discussed multiple times.(not attacking the poster, just pointing out a benefit of search, i think it's a very good question for discussion) |
Erlang and network connections? | davidw: In the normal case, Erlang is only one OS process. It handles everything via select. The only limits are OS limits on open sockets and things like that. |
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself? | michael_dorfman: I don't want to sound too old fashioned, but I think the key question you should be asking yourself about your "groundbreaking" idea is "What are the barriers to entry?" If the idea is such that anyone with a decent technical background could implement it upon hearing it, you're likely to get instant copy-cat competitors even if you do make it first to market.If your idea is good, and there are sufficient barriers to entry, I don't think there's any problem discussing it with others-- in fact, I'd recommend you discuss it with people you trust, as they can help you refine it. |
F/OSS Build Automation for C# | kleevr: link: http://kleevr.blogspot.com/2008/05/c-build-automation-using-... |
Erlang and network connections? | arete: Most operating systems have some highly efficient way of handling many open network connections, for example epoll on linux, kqueue on xBSD, event ports on solaris. These are much more efficient than select() with large numbers of open sockets and the Erlang VM will use the appropriate one for the host OS when run with the +Ktrue option.The SMP Erlang VM (as of Erlang/OTP R11B, R12B highly recommended) runs, by default, one process scheduler per CPU. So on a dual-core machine you can have two sockets being read from/written to simultaneously. Erlang allows you to program to a very simple model of one Erlang process per socket, with the VM using select/epoll/kqueue/etc to determine which processes have incoming data and are thus runnable.Native processes use a lot of resources on most operating systems, so you can't use a process-per-socket model. So many web servers use a pool of processes/threads and queue up incoming requests that exceed that limit. Others use relatively few processes and use epoll/kqueue/etc directly. |
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself? | car: Before talking about your idea to others, consider applying for a patent, if this is a feasible option (e.g. business process patent). Then it could eventually be better protected, and pose a barrier to entry for competitors. Make sure to only disclose your idea under NDA before you file the patent application.Once you have filed a patent application, you should definitely talk about your idea, since you'll have to convince potential partners and investors of it. |
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself? | melvinram: I prefer to be open about things. For example: http://48hrlaunch.wordpress.com/2008/05/18/which-problem-sho...Here's how I look at things:
* Most people won't think your idea is as good as you think it is... because it's probably a lot more evolved in your head than what you're saying out loud.
* People who do think your idea is worth stealing and spending their time & money, will probably do things differently than how you envision it. So their product will not be the same as what you have in your head.
* Most people talk a lot and act very little.
* The upside of telling people is that they can either connect you with people who can help you or give you feedback that might be useful.The benefits far outweight the risk in most situations... not all... most. |
F/OSS Build Automation for C# | DenisM: Build automation is not a waste of time, it's a sound practice among others. See The Joel Test: 12 Steps to Better Codehttp://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000043.html 1. Do you use source control?
2. Can you make a build in one step?
3. Do you make daily builds?
4. Do you have a bug database?
5. Do you fix bugs before writing new code?
6. Do you have an up-to-date schedule?
7. Do you have a spec?
8. Do programmers have quiet working conditions?
9. Do you use the best tools money can buy?
10. Do you have testers?
11. Do new candidates write code during their interview?
12. Do you do hallway usability testing? |
F/OSS Build Automation for C# | icey: I've implemented systems using CruiseControl.Net and have had pretty decent luck with it.It works fine with SVN.Here is a good book to get you started:http://www.amazon.com/Expert-Delivery-Using-CruiseControl-NE... |
F/OSS Build Automation for C# | bigtoga: First question: are you using source code control? If not, how many developers are on your team? If it's just you and you don't need/want-to use source code control, consider batch file builds scheduled as Scheduled Tasks in XP/Vista/OS. |
Collaborative Filtering + Interweb == Good Times? | series: Diggin' this project so far.. makes it convenient to catch up on what's happening 'now' on the web.. |
Collaborative Filtering + Interweb == Good Times? | tomwsmf: I stopped hitting slashrot and digg simply because the noise level was unsquelchable. SO off I have been in the land of Greader, my own little feeds set up with some slight input from googles friends linkages...but this...this is coolBeing able to add your own feeds, thats great. I am so sick to death of reading echos of echos of the same hand full of places digg,redit,slash,etc etc pick from. Its threadbare folks. Now i can agg in places like Greylodge and Ovo..whoot.When I do want to see what the masses are trending for the tools that I see here look to be right on the mark to get the gist and gestalt. Simple and useful.I look forward to seeing this site build up some more tools and flexibility to bring more diversity , controllable by the user, into the feed agging. One of the problems with how other feed agg sites work is they become so damn insular and inbreed over time. My hope is this one will allow that not to happen. |
Collaborative Filtering + Interweb == Good Times? | tree: I recently joined "Of The Now" and so far I like it. I like that I can sort through all of the titles in one spot rather than having to go to several different sites. I also like that I am basically building my own feed of news that I am interested in rather than what other people think I might be interested in. I look forward to seeing how this site developes. |
Collaborative Filtering + Interweb == Good Times? | bosshog: Like the simple design. The healthcare link isn't too solid at the mo.http://news.80concepts.com/public/category/science/healthcar...Why is it that I can't read comments without logging in? |
Tell people about your idea, or keep it to yourself? | oldgregg: I run into people all the time who smirk "sorry, its a NDA thing" -- whatever dude. In all likelihood your idea isn't that good. Secretly you don't want to tell anybody because they might shut you down. So nobody will find out about it and you'll just be smug and self-righteous until you wake up one day and realize your 43 and still working at GeekSquad.I worry more about getting discouraged and giving up. How do I stay focused? I tell everyone who will listen. New Competitors? None. Advice and connections? Tons.And the best part: Once people know what you are doing you can't just quietly give up-- you have to fail spectacularly! Besides, what is the point of life if you can't share your life with the people around you? |
F/OSS Build Automation for C# | mullr: You have two major choices, NAnt and MSBuild. I recommend you learn MSBuild and how to deal with visual studio with it. That way you'll be more effective in the long run.Unless, of course, you're not using the MS toolchain. Then NAnt is the only real choice. |
Where to look for info on E-Commerce websites? | kp212: Thanks for the tip. I started Googling for open source e-commerce packages. I actually have some background in coding, I wrote a couple of smaller projects over the past 2 years, so I am comfortable with php/html, and I think my illustrator/shop skills are coming together now as well. I actually built a version 1 with the yahoo store editor. It's ok, not totally satisfied with the design, but it works, and is clean as I could make it. As I am starting work on version 2.0, I find this editor to be a little frustrating not letting me customize some of the modules, and I want to make some of this database driven instead of a page for each product. I don't like the idea of their custom tables. Does this help with gauging where I am technically? |
Is it possible to think well with noise? | entelarust: for some reason i always work the best in a chaotic environment (i.e. tv, people, music, etc) |
Collaborative Filtering + Interweb == Good Times? | DenisM: Why do you insist on verifying email address? Are you afraid that a bot will join your site and will find other bots with similar interests? :-)Seriously, what is the threat you are protecting against which makes it worth it doubling your bounce rate? |
What Linux-distro to learn about Linux? | graywh: Almost every Linux distro is free as in gratis and libre.Start with something easy to install and maintain like Ubuntu and go from there. |
What Linux-distro to learn about Linux? | davidw: Ubuntu's pretty good, and can be used both on your desktop and as a server, meaning you get to run exactly the same code in both places, which is very nice for testing purposes. |
What Linux-distro to learn about Linux? | olefoo: Are you looking to learn about operating systems, or are you more interested in current linux desktops?If you want current Linux Desktop distros try both Ubuntu and Fedora and whichever one you feel more comfortable with will work.If you're more interested in going deep under the hood with a server operating system buy a copy of Unix in a Nutshell and Unix Power Tools (O'Reilly) and get a copy of FreeeBSD or Gentoo. |
What Linux-distro to learn about Linux? | ahold: Try archlinux. It's in the middle. |
Sites/non-web things you use? | edw519: Hacker News, Google, Yahoo email |
Sites/non-web things you use? | andr: congrats, that is the most abstract question in HN history! |
Sites/non-web things you use? | luct: In no particular order:
1) BBC News, Twitter, Digg
2) Friends, Uni Library, Lecturers
3) Twitter, Digg, BBC iPlayer
4) Friends, Wiki, Google |
Sites/non-web things you use? | dmix: Reddit, Hacker News, Google (Reader)Answered all 4. |
Sites/non-web things you use? | auston: 1. Google, HN, Gmail2. My books at home, Google3. Digg, iChat, HN4. Google, iChat, Particular Docs for whatever I'm working with (PHP, Rails, Python, GAE, JS, ETC) |
Sites/non-web things you use? | mindcrime: 1. programming.reddit.com, Slashdot, Hacker News(Honorable mention: java.net, theserverside.com and freshmeat.net)2. my personal library, Borders, Barnes & Noble3. Sluggy Freelance, User Friendly, Dilbert
(Honorable Mention: BOFH )4. TriJUG Mail List, TriLUG Mail List, saloon.javaranch.com |
Sites/non-web things you use? | markbao: 1) Hacker News (addiction as of 3 weeks ago), Facebook, Wikipedia (honorable mention: TechCrunch, TechMeme)2) Wikipedia, personal library, town library3) Twitter, AIM, Facebook (honorable mention: Wikipedia)4) Google, php.net/manual, irc.freenode.net |
Any way to get back in Google AdSense's good books? | jakewolf: #1 - Never call the cops on yourself.#2 - File an appeal https://www.google.com/adsense/support/bin/request.py?contac...Good luck. |
Sites/non-web things you use? | brooksbp: 1) Hacker News, Google Reader, Lambda the Ultimate2) Computer books, Steve Yegge, Paul Graham, Knuth3) Digg, Google Reader, Facebook4) Google, Official Docs/Specs (for projects/languages), irc.freenode.net |
Sites/non-web things you use? | modoc: 1) Hacker News, Slashdot, BBC2) Friends, Books, Google3) OverheardInNewYork, CNN.com, Tivo Desktop(watching tv)4) Google, Friends, seamframework.org |
Any way to get back in Google AdSense's good books? | bapbap: I did file an appeal but got exactly the same template email, after that, they never replied.It does state in the T&C's somewhere that you have to tell them about it and advice on net suggested you should do the same, maybe I shouldn't have paid attention to that! |
Is a distcc style plugin for professional workgroups an idea whose time has come? | Hoff: Mac OS X has this baked into Xcode, as well as general grid computing capabilities. This implemented with distcc and Bonjour (zeroconf), and Xgrid, respectively.Linux, too, can implement this.Operating systems as far back was Windows' arguable predecessor OpenVMS have distributed batch capabilities with clustering and with distributed batch queues, and you can toss build-related jobs into queues. Nowhere near distcc, but it works.If nobody's already gotten traction with this distributed environment within the Visual tools over on Microsoft Windows, well, have at. Microsoft and its related business decisions would centrally affect your future here. Ignore, buy, trump, etc. |
Is a distcc style plugin for professional workgroups an idea whose time has come? | jgrahamc: Two things to read about:1. Electric Cloud (which is a company I started) that does parallel compilation (amongst other things) for mostly very large teams.2. Xoreax which does something like your idea. Typically for smaller teams. |
Is a distcc style plugin for professional workgroups an idea whose time has come? | jrockway: The plugin should be smart about avoiding the user noticing that other users are compiling software on their machine. Locking itself to a single processor is a good start, and refusing jobs if the user on the local machine is compiling code or doing some other processor intensive activity.The plugin should do this? How about letting the OS do it, that's the whole point of an OS after all :) Just nice down the distcc thing and let the OS do the rest. (Hint: the OS' algorithm is probably better than the one you proposed, so why reimplement it?) |